Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 267

On October 07 2022 06:46 Manit0u wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-2SsrL1beA

Some commentary on the shifting frontlines. In the Kherson area UA has managed to get more men in while also shortening the front so instead of 40k men spread over 200km they now have 45k men over 150km (it might not seem like much but it's actually 50% more men per each km of the front line). This is pretty bad news for Russians in the region as they can expect more attacks now that will have more men and equipment behind them.

Europe could suffer a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, according to the European weather forecasting agency, adding to the challenges for governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.

Florence Rabier, director-general of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said early indications for November and December were for a period of high pressure over western Europe, which was likely to bring with it colder spells and less wind and rainfall, reducing the generation of renewable power.

On October 07 2022 07:10 Ardias wrote:

Increased density of the front is playing more into Russian favour though. If you have numerical superiority, it's much easier to poke at the stretched front to find a gap, rather than attack on the dense front, which is now more heavily covered by artillery assets. That was what Ukraine was trying to do, attacking on different direction of Kherson front, until they found this gap. Apparently the point of breakthrough was defended by just two undermanned battalions (hard to guess true numbers, but seem to be around 500-600 men in total) on 25km front and no natural obstacles in front of them.

On October 07 2022 14:53 plasmidghost wrote:
I did not need to wake up to this statement. If Biden is now saying this, I really fear for the planet. Has there been any evidence of nukes being readied?

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1578188802836791296

On October 07 2022 16:50 pmh wrote:


There have been conflicting reports earlier this week about a possible nuclear test in the near future. The uk times amongst others had an article about it (it was reputable media reporting the story) but it didnt gain much traction anywhere (probably deliberate).

There was talk about a possible test of the nuclear poseidon torpedo in the artctic and also a story about a train suposedly belonging to nuclear units that was heading towards the black sea. It has been denied by both sides (Nato denying they did warn alies and stating they didnt see any indication, and Russia denying the train movement).
Something is brewing but that doesnt mean something will also happen.That something will happen however seems to be at least somewhat likely.
Armageddon i think is virtually impossible (unless all our leaders collectively lost their mind) but it would create a very difficult situation.

I can see only one way in which this conflict will be put on hold. A similar situation as north and south Korea.
A ceasefire and DMZ but with the conflict officially still going and without final agreement in which all disputes are settled. No clue what will happen before that point is reached.

On October 07 2022 16:50 pmh wrote:


There have been conflicting reports earlier this week about a possible nuclear test in the near future. The uk times amongst others had an article about it (it was reputable media reporting the story) but it didnt gain much traction anywhere (probably deliberate).

There was talk about a possible test of the nuclear poseidon torpedo in the artctic and also a story about a train suposedly belonging to nuclear units that was heading towards the black sea. It has been denied by both sides (Nato denying they did warn alies and stating they didnt see any indication, and Russia denying the train movement).
Something is brewing but that doesnt mean something will also happen.That something will happen however seems to be at least somewhat likely.
Armageddon i think is virtually impossible (unless all our leaders collectively lost their mind) but it would create a very difficult situation.

I can see only one way in which this conflict will be put on hold. A similar situation as north and south Korea.
A ceasefire and DMZ but with the conflict officially still going and without final agreement in which all disputes are settled. No clue what will happen before that point is reached.

On October 07 2022 21:00 Liquid`Drone wrote:
It is very difficult to find a diplomatic solution that works for Ukraine (reverse to pre 2014 borders + whatever measures are needed to secure Ukraine's future sovereignty + reparations?) and one that Putin can live with. And while the 'reparations' element and whatever is needed to secure Ukraine's future sovereignty elements to some degree are up for negotiation, even the first one is unacceptable to Russia, but entirely unacceptable not to grant Ukraine - not just to Ukraine, but to the rest of Europe too.

Obviously every bystander wants 'diplomatic solutions' but it's currently impossible to find one palatable to Russian leadership + Ukraine (not just their leadership) + western countries supporting Ukraine, and it seems overwhelmingly likely that the only way to make Russia accept what they need to accept, is for them to suffer a big military defeat. They are the indisputable aggressor in this conflict.

The only area where the west can really show any leeway to promote an ethically acceptable diplomatic solution would be through paying for some of the rebuilding of Ukraine. ('Morally', this is more Russia's responsibility, but there are historical examples indicating that forcing too big concessions from a losing military party - even if this party was indeed the aggressor, might inspire future conflict). So I'd be happy to see the west foot some of that bill, be it as an olive branch or whatever you want to call it. But Crimea must go back to Ukraine, and Russia must be unable to initiate another act of aggression 5-10-15 years down the line - those two aren't negotiable.