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On September 24 2022 08:27 Ardias wrote:
Well, I had a long talk with my folks and my friends, and, at the end, together with my friend I've mentioned before , veteran of the 2nd Chechen war, we are gonna to attend military comissariat today's morning. It seems that they give some time to gather your belongings and report, if they recruit you, so I may answer you all today/tommorow, maybe they'll just send me back to my apartment.
This must be one of the most chilling posts in the history of TL. But thanks a lot for your posting! The different perspective is a major reason to come back here, if it is about wars, pandemics or politics.
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On September 24 2022 08:27 Ardias wrote:
Well, I had a long talk with my folks and my friends, and, at the end, together with my friend I've mentioned before , veteran of the 2nd Chechen war, we are gonna to attend military comissariat today's morning. It seems that they give some time to gather your belongings and report, if they recruit you, so I may answer you all today/tommorow, maybe they'll just send me back to my apartment.
I hope you just go home, good luck.
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On September 24 2022 08:27 Ardias wrote:
Well, I had a long talk with my folks and my friends, and, at the end, together with my friend I've mentioned before , veteran of the 2nd Chechen war, we are gonna to attend military comissariat today's morning. It seems that they give some time to gather your belongings and report, if they recruit you, so I may answer you all today/tommorow, maybe they'll just send me back to my apartment.
Rooting for you Ardias! Stay strong!
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Why would you even go to military comissariat in Russia in current conditions when they are accepting almost everyone? To get drafted for sure? Are you insane? Not attending will result administrative penalty between 500 and 3000 RUR which is nothing in comparison to faith of refusnik or getting buried 6 feet under in ukrainian soil
I have hard time searching for empathy when you are making such weird decision, sorry Aridas
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All those who were supporting Putin for 20 years giving him 60%+ approval rating (at lowest) deserve it in my opinion. When they saw atrocities during all these years and they didn't protest, they simply encouraged him to go on. When 250k or more don't show up to protest and to "trash the place" (angry crowd), Putin simply gets encouraged to commit more atrocities. Because you can't jail that many people, yet they still don't get it. Silence is not an option.
So this comes to mind:
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
—Martin Niemöller
While it was for nazis originally, I don't really see much humanity from the current Kremlin regime. This post isn't targeted at Ardias but it's towards general Russian public who was and is supporting Putin.
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Daily Rainer Saks:
24.09.22
There have been no major changes in the situation
- Ukraine continues its faster offensive in the north and strong pressure in the south. Russia is trying to hit Ukrainian cities and is trying to attack in individual places in Donbas.
- In the direction of Lyman, Ukrainian troops have continued to advance on the left bank of the Oskil River. Russia has not been able to establish defense lines here, and their counterattacks in the Kupyansk region ended unsuccessfully yesterday. Apparently, Ukraine's attack a few days ago on the concentration point of Russian units in the settlement of Svatove also had a paralyzing effect, where the commander of the entire troop group (major general) was also seriously wounded. Although the weather does not currently favor Ukraine's use of heavier armor in the attack, the bridgeheads created on the Oskili River have been expanded, and the left bank of Oskili has also been penetrated from the direction of Izyum to the north. Defending the Svatove logistics hub will become difficult for Russian units over the next week.
The operation to recapture the city of Lyman is moving forward purposefully - according to all assumptions, the Russian units should leave it within a few days, if they do not want to be surrounded. The Russian side is not known to have such reserves to break the siege later.
- In the direction of Lyssychansk/Severodonetsk, Russian units attempted an unsuccessful counter-attack yesterday, information about the Ukrainians' activities was not disseminated yesterday.
- In the direction of Bakhmut, both sides have allegedly improved their positions at various points. There is no greater meaning to this at the moment.
- In the area of the city of Donetsk, Russian units were active throughout the entire Western Front yesterday, but without results.
- There are no changes on the southern front.
- In the Kherson region, the Russian side is trying in every possible way to organize the crossing of the Dnieper, but they suffer painful losses daily due to Ukrainian attacks, and it has not been possible to create a permanent crossing of the river. Missile attacks in Ukraine continue to be very painful - both command points and troop concentration areas are hit.
- The losses of the Russian side are still very high - in the last few weeks, 400-500 men have been killed every day. With wounded and all sorts of other reasons to fall out of line, this means a minimum of 1.5 battalion tactical groups per day, more likely even 2.
In the case of private military companies, it can be assumed here that they will receive some amount for the dead fighters. If the allowances are not paid out to relatives under any pretext, it is possible to earn quite a lot this way and export new troops to battle.
By now, Russian troops on the front are considerably less well-prepared than in the first months of the war. The majority of those mobilized will be of even poorer quality. It is hard to imagine that this poor quality can be compensated by the mass of infantry.
There is not much to add about the mobilization - the Russian media tries to create an image of large gathering masses, social media drips clips about real life. Soon we will be shown productions from large-scale training sessions.
It will be interesting to see what the Russian authorities do with the conscripts whose service is expected to end this fall. There is a very high probability that this entire group will also be mobilized for war. (There should be about 120,000 of them) Due to the war in Ukraine, their training is poorer than before, but better than the mobilized civilians. Regarding mobilization, it is now certain that Russia simply uses the population register as the basis for mobilization. Therefore, for some reason, the military commissariats do not have lists of those liable for mobilization. Consequently, it is not possible to gather men simply by years, and there is also no overview of their training and professions. It's bad, I would say. As a forecast, it can be said that the results of the mobilization can be assessed after a couple of months at the earliest. Then it will be seen whether combat-capable units can be created or not. However, the biggest risk in connection with mobilization in the current phase is that if too large a number of men are brought together, with whom nothing can be done - such a mass of loitering and drinking men would create the potential for unpredictable events.
The use of Iranian drones against Ukrainian cities has been timed to happen at this very moment (the use of individual Iranian drones has also occurred before). It will not bring any change in the war, although the Iranian drones were supposed to give an additional impetus to the information operations. Attacking Odessa with these drones is aimed at deterring the export of grain through the ports of the Odessa region. Obviously, Russia doesn't have too many of these drones, and it was already seen yesterday that Ukraine is learning to shoot them down quite quickly. Of course, Iran should primarily be dealing with stabilizing its internal situation."
+ Show Spoiler +
Original:
Rainer Saks: "Olukorras suuri muudatusi ei ole toimunud - Ukraina jätkab kiiremat pealetungi põhjas ja tugevat survet lõunas. Venemaa üritab tabada Ukraina linnu ja üritab pealetungi üksikutes kohtades Donbassis.
- Lõmani suunal on Ukraina väed jätkuvalt edenenud Oskili jõe vasakul kaldal. Venemaa ei ole siin suutnud kaitseliine rajada ning nende vasturünnakud Kupjanski piirkonnas lõppesid eilseks ebaõnnestunult. Ilmselt mõjus halvavalt ka Ukraina mõne päeva tagune rünnak Svatove asulas vene üksuste koondumispunktile, kus sai raskelt haavata ka kogu väegrupi ülem (kindralmajor). Kuigi ilmastik ei soosi hetkel Ukrainal raskema soomuse kasutamist rünnakul, on siiski Oskili jõel loodud sillapäid laiendatud ning Izjumi suunast tungitud mööda Oskili vasakut kallast ka üles põhjapoole. Svatove logistikasõlme kaitsmine muutub järgmise nädala jooksul vene üksustele keeruliseks.
Lõmani linna ümberhaaramise operatsioon kulgeb sihikindlalt edasi- kõigi eelduste kohaselt peaks vene üksused selle paari päeva jooksul maha jätma, kui nad ei soovi saada sisse piiratud. Selliseid reserve ei tea vene poolel olevat, et nad suudaks piiramisrõnga hiljem lahti murda.
- Lõssõtšanski/Severodonetski suunal üritasid vene üksused eile ühte ebaõnnestunud vasturünnakut, ukrainlaste tegevuse kohta andmeid eile ei levinud.
- Bahmuti suunal on väidetavalt erinevates punktides mõlemad pooled oma positsioone parandanud. Suureamt tähendust sellel hetkel ei ole.
- Donetski linna piirkonnas olid vene üksused eile üle hulgema aja aktiivsed kogu läänerinde ulatuses, aga tulemusteta.
- Lõunarindel muudatusi ei ole.
- Hersoni piirkonnas üritab vene poole igal võimalikul moel korraldada Dnepri ületamist, aga kannab Ukraina rünnakute tõttu iga päev valusaid kaotuseid ning püsivat ülekäiku jõest ei ole suudetud luua. Ukraina raketirünnakud on jätkuvalt väga valusad - tabatakse nii juhtimispunkte kui vägede koondumisalasid.
- Vene poole kaotused on jätkuvalt väga suured - viimastel nädalatel on kaotud iga päev 400-500 meest langenutena. Koos haavatute ja igat sorti muude rivist välja langenutega tähendab see minimaalselt 1,5 pataljoni taktikalist gruppi päevas, pigem isegi 2.
Erasõjafirmade puhul võib siinjuures eeldada, et nad saavad hukkunud võitlejate eest mingi summa. Kui toetused jätta omastele mistahes ettekäändel välja maksmata, võib niimoodi päris palju teenida ja uut kontingenti lahingutesse eksportida.
Praeguseks on rindel juba tunduvalt viletsama ettevalmistusega kontingent, kui sõja esimestel kuudel. Valdavast osast mobiliseeritutest saab veelgi viletsama kvaliteedi. Raske on ette kujutada, et seda viletsat kvaliteeti on võimalik korvata jalaväe massiga.
Mobilisatsioonikohta ei ole suurt midagi juurde lisada - vene meedia üritab luua pilti suurtest kogunevatest massidest, sots meediasse tilgub klippe tegeliku olme kohta. Varsti näidatakse meile lavastusi suurtelt õppustelt.
Huvitav on näha, mida vene võimud teevad nende ajateenijatega, kelle teenistusaeg peaks lõppema sellel sügisel. On väga suur tõenäosus, et kogu see kontingent mobiliseeritakse samuti sõtta. (Neid peaks olema ca 120 000) Väljaõpe on neil Ukraina sõja tõttu viletsam, kui varem, aga parem, kui tsiviilist mobiliseeritutel. Mobilisatsiooni kohta on nüüd juba kindel, et venemaa kasutab mobilisatsiooni aluseks lihtsalt elanikkonna registrit. Seega ei ole sõjakomissariaatidel mingil põhjusel kasutusel mobiliseerimis kohuslaste nimekirju. Järelikult ei suudeta võtta mehi kokku lihtsalt aastakäikude kaupa ning puudub ka ülevaade nende väljaõppe ja erialade kohta. Halvasti, ütleks. Prognoosina võib öelda, et mobilisatsiooni tulemusi saab hinnata kõige varem paari kuu pärast. Siis on näha, kas võitlusvõimelisi üksusi suudetakse luua või mitte. Kõige suurem risk mobilisatsiooniga seoses praeguses faasis on aga hoopis selles, et kui tuuakse kokku liiga suur hulk mehi, kellega ei suudeta mitte midagi peale hakata- selline logelevate ja napsitavate meeste mass looks potentsiaali määramatuteks sündmusteks.
Iraani droonide kasutamine Ukraina linnade vastu on ajastatud just praegusele hetkele (üksikute Iraani droonide kasutamine on toimunud ka varem). Sõjas mingit pööret see ei too, küll pidid Iraani droonid andma täiendava hoo infooperatsioonidele. Odessa ründamine nende droonidega kannab eesmärki heidutada teravilja väljavedu Odessa piirkonna sadamate kaudu. Ilmsesti neid droone venemaal liiga palju kasutada ei ole ja juba eile oli näha, et Ukraina õpib üsna kiiresti neid alla tulistama. Iraan muidugi peaks eelkõige tegelema oma siseolukorra stabiliseerimisega."
P.S. So, Ardias chose to comply with the genocide of the Ukrainians. I wouldn't exactly wish him good luck.
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I wish you the best Ardias, but i also don't think it's a good move. They already drafted men that have no military experience and are 40+. I've seen men in their fifties. They don't seem very picky in some parts of the country. But that's from my very limited point of view.
Ukraine is preparing for the counter offensive as we speak and it will take time to equip and train the conscripts. If Russia pulls through with an offensive, it will be costly and bloody. Not a good fight to be in.
I'm very disappointed by the reactions of the NATO countries and UN so far. Pledges and announcements of more sanctions.
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United States43538 Posts
My understanding is that you can schedule your surrender to Ukrainian forces and even receive cash payments for the hardware you bring with you.
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On September 24 2022 18:38 r00ty wrote:
I wish you the best Ardias, but i also don't think it's a good move. They already drafted men that have no military experience and are 40+. I've seen men in their fifties. They don't seem very picky in some parts of the country. But that's from my very limited point of view.
Ukraine is preparing for the counter offensive as we speak and it will take time to equip and train the conscripts. If Russia pulls through with an offensive, it will be costly and bloody. Not a good fight to be in.
I'm very disappointed by the reactions of the NATO countries and UN so far. Pledges and announcements of more sanctions.
While I share your disappointment, the fact that certain things aren't done hastily doesn't mean they aren't done quickly. There was a NAC meeting on the day of Putin's announcement.
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On September 24 2022 08:27 Ardias wrote:
Well, I had a long talk with my folks and my friends, and, at the end, together with my friend I've mentioned before , veteran of the 2nd Chechen war, we are gonna to attend military comissariat today's morning. It seems that they give some time to gather your belongings and report, if they recruit you, so I may answer you all today/tommorow, maybe they'll just send me back to my apartment.
Mess with the best, die like the rest.
But if you end up sent to Ukraine, do like Kwark says, surrender to the best at the earliest opportunity and help their efforts vs fascism.
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Croatia9529 Posts
On September 24 2022 18:18 Ghanburighan wrote:
P.S. So, Ardias chose to comply with the genocide of the Ukrainians. I wouldn't exactly wish him good luck.
Don't be a dunce, it's obvious people wish him luck to survive this whole ordeal, not to kill as many Ukranians as he can. I think we should refrain from this moral grandstanding until we find ourselves in a position where we have to choose between going to jail to suffer/die or going to the war we don't support to suffer/die.
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I don't understand how you can wage war with soldiers who are completely unwilling to fight and are forcefully recruited. In 18th century armies where people were marching/fighting in strict formations, sure, but modern warfare looks so fluid to me. What stops people from simply shooting their superiors and defect?
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Russian Federation617 Posts
I'm fine, ended up delivering up mobilization notes, as it was prescribed (yet to give one to someone, people from the list that I have mostly didn't open the door or it was someone else). They are also don't grab just anyone, I had 9 notes and had to walk around 3 kms combined between 9 different apartment buildings. So it's not like sweeping every apartment.
Also my friend, who was willing to apply, was denied again, since he wasn't in the list, they have only updated his data.
@Dav1on - check out article 328 of the Russian Criminal Code. It's perfectly applicable and punishment is much more severe than 3000 rubles.
@others - thanks for the words of support. I went partially because I can't help but being a law-abiding citizen, that's how I grew up, never wanting to end on the wrong side of the law, partially because I wanted to see what is happening with my own eyes. Also I didn't believe they would ship me for Ukraine, and I was right in that regard, for now at least
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I guess the reason we see so many videos of randoms and drunks being conscripted is because the local mobilization 'commisars' don't know or don't care. Apparently the plan was only old servicemen up to 35 and officers up to 50 but for example local Yakutsk mobilizers just sent every man they could grab.
But even then they are getting sent out there with AK's that were stored in a swamp.
+ Show Spoiler +
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On September 24 2022 20:33 2Pacalypse- wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2022 18:18 Ghanburighan wrote:
P.S. So, Ardias chose to comply with the genocide of the Ukrainians. I wouldn't exactly wish him good luck. Don't be a dunce, it's obvious people wish him luck to survive this whole ordeal, not to kill as many Ukranians as he can. I think we should refrain from this moral grandstanding until we find ourselves in a position where we have to choose between going to jail to suffer/die or going to the war we don't support to suffer/die.
That's a false dichotomy. I wrote a lot of people in Russia yesterday to warn them, after I started seeing that it's actually first come first serve instead of what Putin announced. Everyone but Ardias chose evasion.
And you don't have to stand in the shoes of someone making a choice to judge a choice. Russia is committing genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and more. It's morally right to object, instead of complying. It's pretty cut and dry to me.
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On September 24 2022 20:43 Elroi wrote:
I don't understand how you can wage war with soldiers who are completely unwilling to fight and are forcefully recruited. In 18th century armies where people were marching/fighting in strict formations, sure, but modern warfare looks so fluid to me. What stops people from simply shooting their superiors and defect?
I’d imagine the thought of family back home. With mobilization occurring, there’s basically zero percent chance for a male 18-65 to stay with their families/support their wives/kids in the way they have been without complying, it’s either jail plus fines (where your wife and kids get no financial support from you for an unknown amount of time and in fact lose them money, likely to become homeless/starve)…
…or comply, hope you get denied, but if drafted be able to send them back some money (I think?), and hope you survive/this whole thing blows over in 6 months or less and you go home and everything goes back to normal again. Surrender/desertion ensures you stay alive, but highly unlikely to see your family again/puts them at risk.
I guess third option is smuggle family out of Russia, but that puts your family in much greater danger of being caught/trafficked as refugees/what have you.
Given those options, and the priority of a normal/stable life for your family, fighting and praying for it all to end makes a lot of sense.
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On September 24 2022 20:43 Elroi wrote:
I don't understand how you can wage war with soldiers who are completely unwilling to fight and are forcefully recruited. In 18th century armies where people were marching/fighting in strict formations, sure, but modern warfare looks so fluid to me. What stops people from simply shooting their superiors and defect? You don't. Which is why Russia is losing and how Ukraine was able to re-capture so much territory so quickly.
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On September 24 2022 21:01 Ardias wrote:
@others - thanks for the words of support. I went partially because I can't help but being a law-abiding citizen, that's how I grew up, never wanting to end on the wrong side of the law, partially because I wanted to see what is happening with my own eyes. Also I didn't believe they would ship me for Ukraine, and I was right in that regard, for now at least
Glad to hear you’re safe Ardias, but I have to say given the (very much appreciated!) effort and intellectual rigor which you’ve exhibited in this thread regarding this topic, I’m surprised your stated reasoning for attempting to join up seems so disjointed/sketchy.
Wanting to be a law-abiding citizen I can kind of understand, but I’d imagine avoidance of an incredibly penalizing fine, combined with the hope of better treatment/better monetary deals for being compliant would be a better motivator. Do you also always follow the speed limit/traffic laws religiously as well? (To be fair it might just be an American thing to go over the speed limit regularly, run intersections in yellow lights as it turns red, cross streets without a crosswalk where you’re not supposed to, etc.)
Wanting to see what’s happening with your own eyes? This one is probably the weirdest one for me. You’d know probably better than I that war and military operations aren’t tourist attractions, you’re responsible for killing or getting killed and it’s serious business and not a pleasant experience. As a conscript in the field relying on questionable intelligence from your superiors (assuming no Internet access for you, but I may be wrong), it’s likely you’ll have LESS of an idea of what’s going on compared to the big picture you’re able to get following your sources at home. Unless, again, you really wanted that trench warfare experience or the thrill of not knowing if a given command post you’re walking into/out of will blow up or not, but I’d imagine this isn’t what you meant.
Finally, the well-being of you and your family is a pretty important thing to risk on an assumption that everything will work out and you’ll go back home. Maybe your sources were able to confirm more strongly that this would be the outcome, but your use of the phrase “I didn’t believe that” instead of “I knew they wouldn’t” implies that it still was at least somewhat an unsure thing. It would make more sense if this line of thought was meant more to console you/provide hope when making a scary/painful yet necessary decision, instead of it being a motivator for you to apply. And it logically runs counter to your second reason of wanting to actually go and see things. You either want to go or you don’t, right?
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I'm at least thankful you're not going to die or kill for Putin. If God forbid you get drafted, just do what you can to sabotage the war effort (not that Russia needs any of that)
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EPT
