EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 224
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
https://t.me/milinfolive/90562 https://t.me/milinfolive/90405 | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
On September 16 2022 03:29 Ardias wrote: Iranian drones are confirmed to be used by AFRF. https://t.me/milinfolive/90562 https://t.me/milinfolive/90405 This might seem like an escalation but I've seen enough evidence out there to believe that the HARM integration with MIG jets comes from Israeli sources. That being added to SEAD missions cleanly is worth a lot more than a few hundred drones. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria908 Posts
Just my 2 cents.  | ||
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r00ty
Germany1101 Posts
https://news.sky.com/story/mass-burial-site-containing-440-graves-found-in-izyum-after-city-liberated-by-ukrainian-forces-12698332 Edit: In light of the comments by the German chief inspector, the Bundeswehr released an interview with general Dr. Freuding today who is involved in coordinating with Ukraine and was on the grounds in Kiev recently. It's only available in German unfortunately: www.youtube.com He paints a very different picture than his chief officer general Zorn: It's a correction of the frontlines wich was overdue, as it was already crumbling. Through the feint attacks in the south advantages of 4:1 were achieved in the north and the Russians were overran. It was planned, announced and executed perfectly. He describes it as tactically genius, western weapons were a factor, but gives major credit to Ukraine for discipline, tactical behaviour and morale. The retreat was unorganised and still mostly is. The captured supplies and equipment might be the biggest aid package the Ukrainian forces have received since the beginning of the invasion, mindboggling amounts were left behind. There were no reinforced positions behind the front to speak of. He doesn't see the Russian armed forces recover orderly or quickly. Just to let you guys know, general Zorn's opinion was rather fringe. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On September 16 2022 10:46 Magic Powers wrote: This comes as close as it gets to definitive proof that the Wagner group is recruiting prisoners for the special I-want-out operation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAhY_DyZ0Y4 I posted it few pages ago. Prigozhin already gave his commentary on the matter, quote: "If you don't like private military companies or convicts fighting for you, well then, send your children to the front". So he confirms that the video is real. There were recorded at least two instances of multiple Federal Penitentiary Service buses moving convicts from prisons en masse and transferring them somewhere south. Which lines up with Wagner training facility located in Krasnodar region. There was also Kadyrov with his demand for each region of Russia to give at least 1000 volunteers. Governor of Crimea supported him in the matter, saying that they have already comprised two units with combined strength of 1200 men. Chechnya itself formed 3 battalions and one regiment, which seem to be mostly light infantry, around 3000 men combined, which would be probably also sent to the front after training. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/16/renewed-fighting-escalation-at-kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-border In the meantime, serious clashes on the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzystan, reportedly even with use of tanks and MLRS. On September 16 2022 09:45 Sermokala wrote: This might seem like an escalation but I've seen enough evidence out there to believe that the HARM integration with MIG jets comes from Israeli sources. That being added to SEAD missions cleanly is worth a lot more than a few hundred drones. Well, it's less about suicide drones and more about heavy UAVs. Russia has surprisingly decent mid range recon UAVs in form of Orlan-10, but lacking long-range recon and strike ones ("Orion" is not produced in sufficent numbers yet, and is not that long-ranged). That's where Iranian ones may come into play. Though I agree that increased SEAD capability of AFU is a serious issue for AFRF, and would probably require more active participation of AFRF Air Force (they have already been much more active since the start of Kherson offensive) to contest the skies. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1101 Posts
I don't see the Russian armed forces turning that around decisively, because their apparent logistical problems won't just disappear. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On September 16 2022 19:53 r00ty wrote: According to general Freuding NATO intelligence suggests 550 combat airplanes were taking part in the invasion which should result in around 1200 sorties flown per day with working logistics, with focus on supporting the ground troops. But in reality the Russians are flying 2-300 sorties per day with a mere 10% directly supporting their ground troops. I don't see the Russian armed forces turning that around decisively, because their apparent logistical problems won't just disappear. I think that this percentage is higher, since AFRF Air Force doesn't fly behind the front line, not being able to destroy AFU long-range SAM network, so it can't carry interdiction or tactical/strategic bombing strikes. So only combat air patrol, ground support and occaisonal cruise missile launch from strategic bombers remain. Though due to the inability to fly high (again. long-range SAM) it's mostly a CAS aircraft (SU-25), who are used the most (together with helos). But due to the abundance of MANPADS, and AFU tactic focusing not on detterence of the attack, but rather on the destruction of the plane (MANPADS crew waits until aircraft fires and starts to turn, then fires the missile, making it harder to dodge), this CAS missions are mostly conducted by firing dumb rockets on a parabola trajectory. It's not as inaccurate as some think, but yes, useful only against large target in an open field, so not too effective. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1101 Posts
On September 16 2022 20:38 Ardias wrote: I think that this percentage is higher, since AFRF Air Force doesn't fly behind the front line, not being able to destroy AFU long-range SAM network, so it can't carry interdiction or tactical/strategic bombing strikes. So only combat air patrol, ground support and occaisonal cruise missile launch from strategic bombers remain. Though due to the inability to fly high (again. long-range SAM) it's mostly a CAS aircraft (SU-25), who are used the most (together with helos). But due to the abundance of MANPADS, and AFU tactic focusing not on detterence of the attack, but rather on the destruction of the plane (MANPADS crew waits until aircraft fires and starts to turn, then fires the missile, making it harder to dodge), this CAS missions are mostly conducted by firing dumb rockets on a parabola trajectory. It's not as inaccurate as some think, but yes, useful only against large target in an open field, so not too effective. It's still surreal how much of a non-factor the air force is in this war. Theoretically the means were there to cripple Ukraines anti-air capabilities, but that never really happened. The US may be the only country who can establish air-superiority against meaningful AA capabilities after all. I think superior artillery (possible through no air superiority) and reconaissance is the deciding advantage at the moment. Giving information is much cheaper than sending Leopard tanks, it's gathered anyway. Ukraine will have access to the best intelligence NATO (the US) can provide. | ||
zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
On September 16 2022 20:38 Ardias wrote: I think that this percentage is higher, since AFRF Air Force doesn't fly behind the front line, not being able to destroy AFU long-range SAM network, so it can't carry interdiction or tactical/strategic bombing strikes. So only combat air patrol, ground support and occaisonal cruise missile launch from strategic bombers remain. Though due to the inability to fly high (again. long-range SAM) it's mostly a CAS aircraft (SU-25), who are used the most (together with helos). But due to the abundance of MANPADS, and AFU tactic focusing not on detterence of the attack, but rather on the destruction of the plane (MANPADS crew waits until aircraft fires and starts to turn, then fires the missile, making it harder to dodge), this CAS missions are mostly conducted by firing dumb rockets on a parabola trajectory. It's not as inaccurate as some think, but yes, useful only against large target in an open field, so not too effective. As far as I know no country has delivered long range (or even mid range) anti air systems to Ukraine yet. This would imply the Russian Airforce was unable to deal with the S300s and the Mig29 and Flankers Ukraine had at the start of the war? Until this very day? It's an honest question since I am also confused how Ukrainian air has been flying sorties continuously since day 1 against an air force that should on paper be like 10x superior. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
On September 16 2022 23:10 zatic wrote: As far as I know no country has delivered long range (or even mid range) anti air systems to Ukraine yet. This would imply the Russian Airforce was unable to deal with the S300s and the Mig29 and Flankers Ukraine had at the start of the war? Until this very day? It's an honest question since I am also confused how Ukrainian air has been flying sorties continuously since day 1 against an air force that should on paper be like 10x superior. Because it appears that Russia is a paper bear, where even the rampant corruption has infected the military as well as the suppliers of said armed forces. I remember reading 2-3 months into the war that satellite photos of airbases/planes deep in Russia were now believed to not be real. As they didn't move at all during repeated flyovers. Even during war time. I mean even recen interviews with commanders in Crimea boasting about the air defenses showed state of the art air defense system bending when the wind was blowing... I mean it was reported over a decade ago! Now the question is how deep does the rot go. Meanwhile in occupied territory, in a single day, five Russian installed officials have been assassinated. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On September 16 2022 23:10 zatic wrote: As far as I know no country has delivered long range (or even mid range) anti air systems to Ukraine yet. This would imply the Russian Airforce was unable to deal with the S300s and the Mig29 and Flankers Ukraine had at the start of the war? Until this very day? It's an honest question since I am also confused how Ukrainian air has been flying sorties continuously since day 1 against an air force that should on paper be like 10x superior. At least Slovakia has given UA their S-300 batteries. Regarding Russian ability to deal with UA AA defence: 1) First of all, UA had a lot of anti-air (with a bunch of stuff in storage as well, which could at least go as spare parts). Yes, they were all from the late 80-s, with some modernizations, but RuAF ain't flying Su-57 en masse either. And Soviet multi-layered air defence doctrine was made to contest NATO air power, which Soviets knew is superior. Even the inability of Bayraktars to conduct offensive actions, which was discussed here a bit earlier, shows that with some skill and dedication, it produce results. AFU has mostly the same means (though lacking Pantsir and Tor, but still, older counterparts are in place). 2) Statements of the first days regarding inflicted damage on UA air defence were greatly overestimated. 3) AFU seem to try heavily to preserve their SAM launchers and, reportedly don't turn on radars, unless they sure something is flying near them, or face them only backwards, in the direction of the west. This way they can only spot and fire at target that have already flew by, but on the other hand, avoid spotting by anti-radiation measures. This may be the reason while there are quite a bunch of misses by AFU SAM while firing on cruise missiles (quite many were caught on camera, hence why I'm so assured that it happend). 4) Operation similar to Bekaa valley in 1982 by IDF, or Desert Storm air campaign by USAF are complicated matters, requiring a lot of planning, skill of pilots and technichians and a great number of assets deployed simultaneously. And don't forget that trese were Arab armies back then, which were much less competent than AFU, plus I believe that comparatively speaking Arabs in both cases were further behind technologically to IDF/USAF, than AFU to RuAF in this case. And even then it was a great risk. And while RuAF certainly has the assets, it seems to lack either organization, skills, or will to risk a big loss to conduct such operation. Plus it seems that priority for RuAF is now a close air support (with available assets in such situation). 5) To establish complete air superiority, you need to control the sky over the enemy positions. Since RuAF ain't able to do that, it can't properly bomb the airfields, intercept AFU planes as they take off, hence it is unable to eliminate UAAF completely. Plus there was at least one video where AFU used a highway as a landing strip for Su-27. So they hide their stuff. On September 16 2022 21:53 r00ty wrote: It's still surreal how much of a non-factor the air force is in this war. Theoretically the means were there to cripple Ukraines anti-air capabilities, but that never really happened. The US may be the only country who can establish air-superiority against meaningful AA capabilities after all. I think superior artillery (possible through no air superiority) and reconaissance is the deciding advantage at the moment. Giving information is much cheaper than sending Leopard tanks, it's gathered anyway. Ukraine will have access to the best intelligence NATO (the US) can provide. You forget about IDF, I believe. But yes, you also need to have an experience for that. US had Korea, Vietnam, two Iraqi wars, Yugoslavia and Lybia to establish and practice air superiority doctrine over the decades, including means to deal with heavy anti-air defence. Plus no doubt they were able to properly analyze Israeli experience. Soviet/Russian air force didn't ever met near-peer in armed conflict. Afghans and Chechens didn't have sophisticated AA systems, MANPADS only, so the closest one was 08/08/08 war, and it showed a lot of issues that were needed to be adressed. But it couldn't be compared to scale of Desert Storm or the length of Vietnam war, not even close. Also you have correctly mentioned the NATO intelligence, forgot to address that. On Flightradar you could regularly see one or few recon planes or UAVs flying near Ukraine/Belarus border or over the Black Sea. These should have been immensely helpful to AFU Air Defence providing necessary recon regarding RuAF activities. | ||
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zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
On September 16 2022 23:42 Ardias wrote: At least Slovakia has given UA their S-300 Singular, but fair enough. One S300 came after the war started, the rest then was what Ukraine had before. And thanks for the insight into the Russian air force. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
The drunk guy was harassing Ukrainian women in public because they refused to speak Russian to each other. The police got him on disturbing the peace in public. The immigration office downgraded his residence permit to temporary, because the law literally specifies that you cannot disturb the peace. If he doesn't disturb the peace for five years, he'll regain his permanent residence permit. There are no substantial differences between temporary and permanent residence permits, except for bureaucratic frequency. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1101 Posts
On September 16 2022 23:42 Ardias wrote: You forget about IDF, I believe. I did and it's western arrogance, which i'm prone to. Maybe, was thinking Britain and France and i don't think they could reliably pull it off against a country comparable to Ukraine without help from the US. I'm personally not very confident in the Chinese forces abilities, but that's another story. Concerning NATO intelligence data: I don't think the target coordinates for the western artillery which aims itself comes from Ukrainian drones.  In any case i hope this ends sooner than later, every hour this continues means more casualties on both sides. Take care and thanks for your input. I also disregarded the outbreak of more resting conflicts where Russia was arguably a stabilising factor. The ones that emerged so far won't be the last IF Russia starts to destabilise. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62922674 | ||
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