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Zurich15328 Posts
On September 15 2022 18:07 Silvanel wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2022 17:10 Ghanburighan wrote:
Interesting thread regarding the way Putin manages his messaging and how it's backfiring due to the military defeat in Kharkiv.
The guy in this twitter claims that amount of Russians supporting war and oposing it is about the same. I dont believe that, Russians that I work with dont belive that, same for Ukrainains.
Those figures don't strike me as off, and the twitter thread seems overall reasonable. I share the thought that Putin backed himself into a corner domestically.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
Drone is right. Population in Russia percieves the war very differently based on their previous predispositions towards Russia/Ukraine/NATo/US/Kremlin/Putin etc., their sources of information, their background, their personal experiences, their beliefs etc. etc. If you are foreigner working with Russians, than yes, these Russians are more likely to have negative attitude of the war. Qualities that are more likely to make a negative attitude - being young, wealthy, know English, live in a big city. Opposing qualities may lead to supportive view to the war. Though both are not granted, I met relatively young educated people from Moscow being staunch patriots with anti-West views, and older and poorer people from the regions who a strictly anti-war. Nobody will give you exact percentages, not even close, it's just that there is a lot of pro-war Russians, a lot of anti-war Russians and a lot of Russians trying to stay neutral and/or not to think of it.
If you need evidences of war support in Russia - almost all small UAVs like Mavic, that LDPR and AFRF forces use (and there were hundreds, if not thousands of them throughout the war) were bought on the money of volunteers (only Kadyrov equipped Chechen troops from his pocket with them), because our MoD do not supply those (our most common official UAV is Orlan-10, but this is much heavier piece used on brigade level, not in company/platoon like the small ones). Maybe soldiers themselves added some from their salaries, but volunteer input is tremendously substantual. Only one tg channel of which I monitor can raise a 100 000$ within a day when they announce money gathering.
And that's only UAVs. There is shit ton of equipment, clothing, sleeping bags, medkits that were bought by Russian people for the troops. Not including donation on the humanitarian aid to the civilian population.
Edit: read the full info on the tweet Silvanel was replying too. Analysis is kinda correct (real persentages may be off though, as I said). The one thing he is not exacly correct is that "radicals" are not massively require mobilization (though some do), their demand is often prosecute those who are responsible for failures on both combat and information fronts, as well as a demand for more serious attitude from the Kremlin. Attempts at talks like the grain deal, Kiev withdrawal (though this is still debated, was it due to military reason or as a result of the first Istanbul talks), possible demilitarization zone around ZAPP are percieved by them as sign of weakness and compliance with the West and betrayal of Russian interests. Basically, general attitude towards political and military leadrship of pro-war people often is - if you started the war, conduct it properly, not try to find a safe way out for you and your wealth after your failure. THough there are still a lot who continue to believe that war is going alright, just with the setbacks.
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Everyone is suddenly talking about a shocking interview by the head of the Bundeswehr, Inspector General Eberhard Zorn, where he says:
- There's no counteroffensive occurring in Ukraine, because Ukraine "cannot push back on a broad front".
- No more arms deliveries to Ukraine, because Germans need it for:
- Russia has the ability to open a second front: Kaliningrad, Baltic Sea, Finnish border, Georgia, Moldova.
Bundeswehr Inspector General Eberhard Zorn has so far not been able to identify any real counter-offensive by the Ukrainians: "I'm careful with the terms," he said in an interview with the Berlin news magazine FOCUS, which will be published on Saturday. At best, he sees “counterattacks that can be used to win back locations or individual sections of the front, but not to push back Russia on a broad front”. Even the approaching winter will “not reduce the suffering – on the contrary”. The Ukrainian army acts "wisely, rarely offers a broadside and conducts operations confidently and very flexibly". And “just two weeks ago I would have said that in six months the entire Donbass will be in Russian hands. Today I'm saying: They won't be able to do that." But Zorn, the highest-ranking soldier in the Bundeswehr, doubts whether the Ukrainians really have the strength for a counteroffensive: "They need a superiority of at least 3 to 1." Bundeswehr general defends German arms deliveries - and warns of more Zorn also defended the previous German arms deliveries: "The list is considerable, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Together with the Dutch , we equipped an entire Ukrainian battalion with the Panzerhaubitze 2000, plus the MLRS multiple rocket launcher. Both came from their own stocks. The last of the 30 cheetahs have just been handed over to the Ukrainians. In addition, we have supplied countless vehicles, ammunition and equipment. With IRIS-T we are sending a missile defense system that we would like to have ourselves. We will support Ukraine for as long as necessary.” But he warns against further arms deliveries: "My advice is really to recognize our numbers: we need everything that we give back," Putin only understands one language, "that is that of power. For an effective deterrent, we need the appropriate forces. Our partners count on us.” Zorn warns: Putin has the potential for a second front In the FOCUS interview, Zorn reiterated his fear that Russia could open a second front and named possible locations for the attack: "Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, the Finnish border, Georgia, Moldova... there are many possibilities. Putin would have the skills. Even if around 60 percent of its land forces are tied up in the Ukraine war, the land forces and, above all, the Russian navy and air force still have uncommitted capacities. If Putin ordered a general mobilization, he wouldn't have any personnel problems either." Original Source
Here's the former commander of the US army in Europe on this interview:
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There has to be some political motivations behind that statement, because I find it hard to believe he is actually that stupid.
A second front? seriously? Russia just killed their version of NATO because they cannot afford a second front despite this one actually being legal and justifiable. That is how bad Russia is doing.
Public statements and interviews like this really aren't helping the image that Germany is utterly useless. Despite the actual aid they may be giving.
What the hell is the PR department thinking when they approve interviews like this?
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Zurich15328 Posts
I am not defending what General Zorn is saying because I find that indeed poor judgement. However, one correction: He is not the head of the Bundeswehr, he is the head quartermaster. His job is to see that the Bundeswehr is properly equipped.
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On September 15 2022 19:09 zatic wrote:
I am not defending what General Zorn is saying because I find that indeed poor judgement. However, one correction: He is not the head of the Bundeswehr, he is the head quartermaster. His job is to see that the Bundeswehr is properly equipped.
Anyone know of any useful shorthand for this? Should I just write head quartermaster? That doesn't sound quite right for a 4 star.
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Zurich15328 Posts
Scratch that, I was wrong. He is the head of the Bundeswehr as much as it has one.
In public he (the office, not Zorn as a person) appears chiefly on matters regarding Bundeswehr supply and equipment, or rather lack thereof which is where my misconception came from. And I subscribed his statements as a play to direct more federal money to the Bundeswehr. Which is what it might still be.
So yes, especially the part about Russia opening a second front seems very poor judgement from him - or any Bundeswehr general to be honest.
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On September 15 2022 19:35 zatic wrote:
Scratch that, I was wrong. He is the head of the Bundeswehr as much as it has one.
In public he (the office, not Zorn as a person) appears chiefly on matters regarding Bundeswehr supply and equipment, or rather lack thereof which is where my misconception came from. And I subscribed his statements as a play to direct more federal money to the Bundeswehr. Which is what it might still be.
So yes, especially the part about Russia opening a second front seems very poor judgement from him - or any Bundeswehr general to be honest. Surely there are other angles you can take if you want more money that don't make you look like a complete idiot that should get replaced asap?
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Well, he is trying to get ahead in the military. Most smart people stopped touching anything that even smells like a military career 2-3 decades ago (at least in Switzerland and I assume the sentiment in germany is similar if not worse).
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On September 15 2022 20:11 Velr wrote:
Well, he is trying to get ahead in the military. Most smart people stopped touching anything that even smells like a military career 2-3 decades ago (at least in Switzerland and I assume the sentiment in germany is similar if not worse).
Sort of. The bundeswehr lacked a clear goal, and public and political support for a couple of decades now. That is why it is in such a sorry state as it is right now. Pretty much any german military person that is familiar with procurement will be staunchly against sending anything from active stocks, and a lot are even resistant to sending most stuff from deep storage. They expect that every capability you give away at best comes back partially. We do have some excellent people within the military, but the political arm of the military has not been a serious office for a while now, which is why we constantly get a bunch of very weird picks for defence minister.
His messaging is unfortunate, but I do not think it reflects much on his actual thinking or abilities as a general. He is trying to keep the bundeswehr alive is my take on this. Ridiculing him for that just shows ignorance towards the history of the bundeswehr and its standing within germany imo, they already went through 'the bundeswehr needs to provide capability for germany' and 'we need to be able to fulfil our nato obligations', but those arguments get cast aside more and more. And they can't really honestly go out there and say "we can't trust you guys to ever get our capability back up" to gain political or public support. They need public support so that is how you gotta play it. Kinda like when you hear claims that we need to help ukraine because europe will be next otherwise. Those are about as foolish, but I don't think the higher up people that claimed this ever believed it. They said it to get the public behind it to put pressure on politicians.
Its a foolish statement, but taking his words for his actual reasoning seems just as foolish to me. It rather demonstrates how desperate german military leadership is and how little trust they have in the political and public support for the bundeswehr in the future. We already saw attempts to divert money from the 'additional funds' of 100 billion into non military spending, we also already saw this fund shrink as it now no longer is 'in addition to the regular investment' but rather a total spending of the annual budget of the bundeswehr + additional funds to arrive at a total of 100 billion after a certain number of years (I think it was 5, not sure). There is also agreement on the fact that the 100 billion are not even enough to catch up with the years of cuts to defence spending.
This is giving me flashbacks from a few months into the war when people demonstrated complete ignorance when it came to the bundeswehr and its equipment.
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On September 15 2022 20:11 Velr wrote:
Well, he is trying to get ahead in the military. Most smart people stopped touching anything that even smells like a military career 2-3 decades ago (at least in Switzerland and I assume the sentiment in germany is similar if not worse).
We have the same problem in Poland with military and some university careers. There's the entrenched "old guard" occupying higher positions, stuck in the mindset from 30+ years ago and shooting down any younger generation upstarts who'd like to modernize things and push forward.
It is really sad, especially in the academic circles which I got to experience myself as I had a lot of trouble getting my bachelor's degree as no one really wanted to even consider my paper on modern anti-terrorism (they wanted to force me to write about the dissolution of Soviet Union instead because that's all they know).
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On September 15 2022 19:25 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2022 19:09 zatic wrote:
I am not defending what General Zorn is saying because I find that indeed poor judgement. However, one correction: He is not the head of the Bundeswehr, he is the head quartermaster. His job is to see that the Bundeswehr is properly equipped. Anyone know of any useful shorthand for this? Should I just write head quartermaster? That doesn't sound quite right for a 4 star.
Chief inspector fits and is his official title. Head of the Bundeswehr is kinda right as well.
I think he did too many wargames going through cold war scenarios. Very questionable to say the least. But to be fair, saying we can't deliver something is his job if it's the case.
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German Dissociative Identity Disorder continues, but at least the deliveries are continuing. Lambrecht just announced 50 Dingos and two MARS-2 will be sent to UA. 
Germany will provide Ukraine with 50 Dingo-type all-protection transport vehicles, as Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (57, SPD) announced on Thursday at the 2022 Bundeswehr Conference. In addition, two new MARS-2 multiple rocket launcher systems and 200 rockets are to be delivered to Ukraine. The training of the crews for this is to take place again in Germany and will begin as early as September. Source
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Greek Parliament has approved Sweden, and Finland's entry into NATO.
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On September 15 2022 22:23 Ghanburighan wrote:German Dissociative Identity Disorder continues, but at least the deliveries are continuing. Lambrecht just announced 50 Dingos and two MARS-2 will be sent to UA. Show nested quote +Germany will provide Ukraine with 50 Dingo-type all-protection transport vehicles, as Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (57, SPD) announced on Thursday at the 2022 Bundeswehr Conference. In addition, two new MARS-2 multiple rocket launcher systems and 200 rockets are to be delivered to Ukraine. The training of the crews for this is to take place again in Germany and will begin as early as September. Source
I guess we no longer do counter insurgency so we don't need the large amount of dingos we have? Given some of the terrain, they might be a better choice than marder, though I somehow doubt that that was part of the decision. Its something.
Also please refrain from citing bild, like it has been previously said, its the absolute worst tabloid germany has to offer. Or to quote a german cabaret artist: "Bild. the newspaper so vile, wrapping dead fish in it would be an insult to the fish".
I suggest this alternative: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/konflikte-deutschland-liefert-raketenwerfer-und-gepanzerte-fahrzeuge-an-ukraine-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-220915-99-774209
The bild article has some more information, but its bild so just not a reputable source.
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Spain to start training Ukrainian soldiers in Tanks, Missiles, and defusing Mines. Makes me wonder if this is the slow start of giving Ukraine NATO "standard" Tanks. While also addressing concerns to certain countries when it comes to certain armaments and training etc.
The soldiers will be trained on tanks, missile systems, battlefield medicine, and demining work at an army base in Zaragoza, the daily wrote.
The Ukrainians are reportedly going to be trained on the systems they will use on the battlefield, apart from simulators and transportation.
The size of the contingent and the duration of the training has not been revealed.
The development followed a meeting between Spanish defense minister Margarita Robles and the Ukrainian ambassador to Spain Sergey Pohoreltsev.
Pohoreltsev had criticized Madrid’s military aid to Kyiv last month, saying that the last aid shipment Spain had sent was in May, without some systems that had been asked for.
“I cannot say that we are satisfied, nor that we are receiving everything that Spain could supply,” El Pais quoted him as saying.
Spain announced additional defense aid to Ukraine last month, including 20 armored vehicles, 75 field artillery pallets, an anti-aircraft system, and 1,000 tons of diesel.
Pohoreltsev said that the Ukrainian government is “most interested” in the supply of 155-millimeter and 122-millimeter howitzers and mortars, the need for which has been conveyed to the Spanish government.
“The process is not simple, but we are working and we are very grateful,” the outlet quoted the ambassador as saying.
Spain had earlier withdrawn its offer to send 40 mothballed Leopard tanks to Ukraine over the “complexity” of the process, including the need to seek the approval of the German government.
Source
edit: Now the German Foreign Minister is now pushing for Germany to send Tanks to Ukraine:
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has called for a speedy decision on deliveries of battle tanks requested by Ukraine, adding to the pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to approve the extra support.
“In the decisive period that Ukraine is in, I do not think this is a decision you can delay for long,” Baerbock told German daily FAZ in an interview published Thursday.
The decision could however only be made “together in a coalition and internationally,” Baerbock said.
Her words will add to the pressure on Scholz, who has come under fire domestically and abroad for failing to supply the armor requested by Ukraine for its counter-offensive.
Germany has sent dozens of missiles, howitzers, and anti-aircraft tanks to the front to support the Ukrainian war effort.
But Berlin has so far drawn the line there and declined to approve the direct transfer of Leopard battle tanks and Marder infantry-fighting vehicles sought by Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces have deployed Western-supplied weapons in a dramatic counter-offensive launched at the beginning of September that has seen Kyiv’s troops retake vast swathes of land.
“More weapons are going to come to Ukraine,” said Baerbock’s Green party colleague, Economy Minister Robert Habeck, at a press conference Thursday.
Habeck did not detail which armaments that entails but said they would be the “right weapons” for the situation.
Speaking on Tuesday, Scholz said Germany had delivered weapons that were “making the difference on the battlefield” but that Germany would not “go it alone” on arms deliveries.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has slammed Germany’s reluctance to send the battle tanks, saying there was “not a single rational argument on why these weapons cannot be supplied.”
Source
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I have to say I'm impressed with German Greens. They're showing real leadership, unlike SPD.
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On September 15 2022 22:48 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2022 22:23 Ghanburighan wrote:German Dissociative Identity Disorder continues, but at least the deliveries are continuing. Lambrecht just announced 50 Dingos and two MARS-2 will be sent to UA. Germany will provide Ukraine with 50 Dingo-type all-protection transport vehicles, as Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (57, SPD) announced on Thursday at the 2022 Bundeswehr Conference. In addition, two new MARS-2 multiple rocket launcher systems and 200 rockets are to be delivered to Ukraine. The training of the crews for this is to take place again in Germany and will begin as early as September. Source I guess we no longer do counter insurgency so we don't need the large amount of dingos we have? Given some of the terrain, they might be a better choice than marder, though I somehow doubt that that was part of the decision. Its something. Also please refrain from citing bild, like it has been previously said, its the absolute worst tabloid germany has to offer. Or to quote a german cabaret artist: "Bild. the newspaper so vile, wrapping dead fish in it would be an insult to the fish". I suggest this alternative: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/konflikte-deutschland-liefert-raketenwerfer-und-gepanzerte-fahrzeuge-an-ukraine-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-220915-99-774209The bild article has some more information, but its bild so just not a reputable source.
Bild used to be the only German paper with people in the conflict zone. SZ has had some nice articles on UA recently, but what's actually a good source in Germany? I have lots of German papers on my bar, but I generally have gravitated towards reading FAZ recently. Anyone with a better view of the German landscape?
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On September 16 2022 00:42 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2022 22:48 Artesimo wrote:On September 15 2022 22:23 Ghanburighan wrote:German Dissociative Identity Disorder continues, but at least the deliveries are continuing. Lambrecht just announced 50 Dingos and two MARS-2 will be sent to UA. Germany will provide Ukraine with 50 Dingo-type all-protection transport vehicles, as Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (57, SPD) announced on Thursday at the 2022 Bundeswehr Conference. In addition, two new MARS-2 multiple rocket launcher systems and 200 rockets are to be delivered to Ukraine. The training of the crews for this is to take place again in Germany and will begin as early as September. Source I guess we no longer do counter insurgency so we don't need the large amount of dingos we have? Given some of the terrain, they might be a better choice than marder, though I somehow doubt that that was part of the decision. Its something. Also please refrain from citing bild, like it has been previously said, its the absolute worst tabloid germany has to offer. Or to quote a german cabaret artist: "Bild. the newspaper so vile, wrapping dead fish in it would be an insult to the fish". I suggest this alternative: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/konflikte-deutschland-liefert-raketenwerfer-und-gepanzerte-fahrzeuge-an-ukraine-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-220915-99-774209The bild article has some more information, but its bild so just not a reputable source. Bild used to be the only German paper with people in the conflict zone. SZ has had some nice articles on UA recently, but what's actually a good source in Germany? I have lots of German papers on my bar, but I generally have gravitated towards reading FAZ recently. Anyone with a better view of the German landscape?
FAZ and SZ are the top two "good source" print media in Germany. FAZ is traditionally more conservative, with SZ having a more leftist interpretation of events.
For German TV, Tagesschau is the most popular and reputable source of news.
Edit: There are a bunch of other respectable papers, too.
BILD, however, is tabloid trash. Even if their facts may often be correct, it is hard to get the actual facts out of the slanted propaganda idiocy shit. And you never get unslanted facts from them.
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Now Spain has approved of Sweden, and Finland joining NATO.
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EPT
