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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 226

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-18 20:49:21
September 18 2022 20:48 GMT
#4501
The most advanced Tank that Russia has, the T-90, has been deployed and one has already been captured in Kherson. If true I'm sure the CIA/MI6/DGSE are already looking at it. One would have thought if in danger of being captured the crew would be under strict orders to destroy it.



"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13937 Posts
September 18 2022 21:04 GMT
#4502
I've heard rumors that Radar from Fighter aircraft was being found intact but a mint condition T-90M is incredible. Lets just say its got to be hours away from saying hi to the aliens

From further in it says that it has an off the factory floor domestic built gunner sight.


I mean they might not be that good but Man they're never going to be able to sell these things after this.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4730 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-19 11:52:58
September 19 2022 11:51 GMT
#4503
Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have banned entry of Russians with tourist visas. Russians with other types of visas are still allowed in.
+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1571643760819200000?s=20&t=JEvGLOCFcC3_6p0lF0avbw

Pathetic Greta hater.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 19 2022 14:41 GMT
#4504
Mick Ryan continues posting about UA, this time on operations planning. Main takeaway from the thread:
UA gained the initiative, and is probably leveraging the shock of the success of the Kharkiv offensive to continue pushing in the Luhansk Oblast.



This part basically puts to rest the debate we had regarding whether UA was reacting to RU over-reaction in Kherson or war games pulling troops away from the region or whatnot.



P.S. The Donbas offensive continues, and Rob Lee has some interesting thoughts about it: basically saying that Wagner isn't incentivized to join the defense of captured regions.

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 19 2022 21:50 GMT
#4505
Slovenia to send Tanks to Ukraine in exchange for German armaments.

Ljubljana, 19 September - Prime Minister Robert Golob and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reached an agreement on Monday on an exchange of military vehicles with Ukraine. Slovenia is to send 28 M55S tanks to Ukraine and receive 40 German-made transport vehicles in exchange.


Source

Meanwhile Lyman is now being attacked from two sides, which makes the possibility of a Austerlitz 2.0 that much more certain. Though there is still time.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4111 Posts
September 20 2022 11:25 GMT
#4506
Looks like Russia is one step closer to full mobilization. If it goes as expected, the bill will pass and Putin is going to sign it.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 20 2022 13:08 GMT
#4507
On September 20 2022 20:25 Magic Powers wrote:
Looks like Russia is one step closer to full mobilization. If it goes as expected, the bill will pass and Putin is going to sign it.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843


This is almost entirely just a psyop. If Putin wanted to mobilize, he could with a snap of his fingers. This is just threats, just like the near-miss missile near Ukraine's South Nuclear Power plant, or saber-rattling with nuclear weapons. They know they need to get UA behind the negotiating table ASAP because they're on the back foot.

Even if RU mobilizes, and they magic up equipment and officers to conduct the training, these troops won't be available until next year. And who knows how many "refusniks" they'll have by that time, seeing months of losses come in from the front.

The reasonable reaction is to smell the blood in the water and bolster up UA to an extent where RU has no option but to retreat its forces from its territory. Speaking of which:



Essentially, the US is planning to give Abrams to UA, they're just waiting to train people on their use and maintenance. And because the whole Ramstein process has been put into place to placate DE and FR, they are probably waiting for the next meeting to announce it, and thus pressuring allies to do the same.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation610 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-20 14:50:23
September 20 2022 14:35 GMT
#4508
On September 20 2022 20:25 Magic Powers wrote:
Looks like Russia is one step closer to full mobilization. If it goes as expected, the bill will pass and Putin is going to sign it.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

The most important part at the moment is "refusal to serve". There are plenty of contract soldiers of units that are involved in combat, who refuse to fight on the front line (so called "500s"). They are in their right, because there is no war declared, hence, by Russian legislation, contract troopers aren't obliged to get into combat, and can refuse to do so, and conscripts can't be used outside Russian territory. And as much different people like to say that there are no working laws in Russia - there are, that's why they are changing the laws themselves.
New legislation, would make those 500s criminals for refusing to go into combat even if there is no "war" declared. These additions to the Criminal Code operate with terms "armed conflict" and "combat action", avoiding term "war" at all. These additions also increase punishment for desertion, and impose 2 new criminal articles - "Voluntarily surrender" and "Marauding".
Though terms "Mobilization", "Martial law" and "War time" are also legally introduced into Criminal Code.

Also, suddenly, LDPR plus Russian authorities of Kherson and Zaporozhie regions declared that referendums would be held from 23.09 to 27.09, so literally 3 days from now on.

Edit: Also Putin and, probably, Shoigu, should make statements this evening, probably regarding referendums and those amendmends to Criminal Code (these passed through the lower parliament either yesterday or today, then they should be verified by upper parliament and signed by president).

Edit2: it was also announced, that anyone, no matter the country of origin, who signed a contract with Russian army for a year, will recieve Russian citizenship quickly, if they are willing to.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9198 Posts
September 20 2022 15:00 GMT
#4509
Introducing a special law to punish "voluntary surrenders" makes it look like desertions are considered a serious problem, something more than rare individual cases. I wonder how many Russians surrendered like that since february.

This also feels like a pointless action because I doubt they're planning to use those laws retroactively. The new "contractors" know they're going to war so the desertion rate should be much lower among them.
You're now breathing manually
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation610 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-20 15:14:26
September 20 2022 15:13 GMT
#4510
On September 21 2022 00:00 Sent. wrote:
Introducing a special law to punish "voluntary surrenders" makes it look like desertions are considered a serious problem, something more than rare individual cases. I wonder how many Russians surrendered like that since february.

This also feels like a pointless action because I doubt they're planning to use those laws retroactively. The new "contractors" know they're going to war so the desertion rate should be much lower among them.

First of all, "surrender" and "desertion" are separate articles. "Surrender" would mean surrendering to AFU troops, while "desertion" would be abandoning your unit/fleeing etc.

I'll elaborate about those "500s" from my previous post. There are soldiers, who are still part of a combat unit (let's say 200th Motor Rifle Brigade for example). Let's say 1500 contract soldiers from this brigade were ordered to go to Ukraine, but 500 refused. They are now sitting in PPD (place of permanent dislocation) of the brigade. Some had their contracts expired and left the army, but others did not. Now, they won't be punished retroactively for refusing to go to Ukraine in February. However, they could be given new order to move to Ukraine, and if there is state of martial law, mobilization or they are sitting in Ukraine (some refuse to fight even while being there) - now they would be charged with violation of criminal law.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-20 15:17:05
September 20 2022 15:16 GMT
#4511
On September 21 2022 00:00 Sent. wrote:
Introducing a special law to punish "voluntary surrenders" makes it look like desertions are considered a serious problem, something more than rare individual cases. I wonder how many Russians surrendered like that since february.

This also feels like a pointless action because I doubt they're planning to use those laws retroactively. The new "contractors" know they're going to war so the desertion rate should be much lower among them.


No, what Ardias meant is that RU army has a large number of "refuseniks" who opted out because there's no war. They cannot continue to do so after the law is passed, because they're already singed up to the army. And the number can be large, perhaps over a quarter of their troops.

But it's not clear what will happen after the law is passed. It's unlikely all these people will immediately comply. Perhaps some will choose to go to jail, but you cannot just send ten thousand young men to prison. And those who react to coercion won't exactly have high morale. The extent to which these men would assist the RU manpower problems is questionable. They're even more likely to sabotage the effort, run away, surrender, etc.

Edit: Ardias was faster.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 20 2022 15:17 GMT
#4512
--- Nuked ---
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 20 2022 15:32 GMT
#4513
On September 21 2022 00:17 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2022 23:35 Ardias wrote:
On September 20 2022 20:25 Magic Powers wrote:
Looks like Russia is one step closer to full mobilization. If it goes as expected, the bill will pass and Putin is going to sign it.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

The most important part at the moment is "refusal to serve". There are plenty of contract soldiers of units that are involved in combat, who refuse to fight on the front line (so called "500s"). They are in their right, because there is no war declared, hence, by Russian legislation, contract troopers aren't obliged to get into combat, and can refuse to do so, and conscripts can't be used outside Russian territory. And as much different people like to say that there are no working laws in Russia - there are, that's why they are changing the laws themselves.
New legislation, would make those 500s criminals for refusing to go into combat even if there is no "war" declared. These additions to the Criminal Code operate with terms "armed conflict" and "combat action", avoiding term "war" at all. These additions also increase punishment for desertion, and impose 2 new criminal articles - "Voluntarily surrender" and "Marauding".
Though terms "Mobilization", "Martial law" and "War time" are also legally introduced into Criminal Code.

Also, suddenly, LDPR plus Russian authorities of Kherson and Zaporozhie regions declared that referendums would be held from 23.09 to 27.09, so literally 3 days from now on.

Edit: Also Putin and, probably, Shoigu, should make statements this evening, probably regarding referendums and those amendmends to Criminal Code (these passed through the lower parliament either yesterday or today, then they should be verified by upper parliament and signed by president).

Edit2: it was also announced, that anyone, no matter the country of origin, who signed a contract with Russian army for a year, will recieve Russian citizenship quickly, if they are willing to.

I find it fascinating how there are certain rules Putin follows and others he just has the FBS throw people off of stuff. I also find the timing so interesting, he can make any rule he wants at anytime, why wait until now for this?


This is why I called it a psyops. Just doing it would lead to direct problems where they'd need to coerce at the individual level. If you do it at the state level you: a) hope to coerce all these men immediately through the threat of incarceration, b) send a message to the West that you're serious about not backing down.

Of course, if the bluff is called, all the same problems resurface.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42700 Posts
September 20 2022 16:11 GMT
#4514
On September 21 2022 00:13 Ardias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2022 00:00 Sent. wrote:
Introducing a special law to punish "voluntary surrenders" makes it look like desertions are considered a serious problem, something more than rare individual cases. I wonder how many Russians surrendered like that since february.

This also feels like a pointless action because I doubt they're planning to use those laws retroactively. The new "contractors" know they're going to war so the desertion rate should be much lower among them.

First of all, "surrender" and "desertion" are separate articles. "Surrender" would mean surrendering to AFU troops, while "desertion" would be abandoning your unit/fleeing etc.

I'll elaborate about those "500s" from my previous post. There are soldiers, who are still part of a combat unit (let's say 200th Motor Rifle Brigade for example). Let's say 1500 contract soldiers from this brigade were ordered to go to Ukraine, but 500 refused. They are now sitting in PPD (place of permanent dislocation) of the brigade. Some had their contracts expired and left the army, but others did not. Now, they won't be punished retroactively for refusing to go to Ukraine in February. However, they could be given new order to move to Ukraine, and if there is state of martial law, mobilization or they are sitting in Ukraine (some refuse to fight even while being there) - now they would be charged with violation of criminal law.

That’d be some grade A bullshit if you signed up under one set of rules and they change the contract on you mid term. Can’t quit, can’t stick to the terms of the original contract, gotta go play hide and seek with drone/satellite guided munitions.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Dav1oN
Profile Joined January 2012
Ukraine3164 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-20 17:50:15
September 20 2022 17:31 GMT
#4515
An hour ago kremlin attempted to destroy Pechinihi river dam in Kharkiv region with two ballistic missiles trying to inflict even more damage to civilans in the area and...failed so far. There is a risk of destruction as they are trying to hit it for the last couple of days methodically. Great that they failed, but once again it shows purely barbaric intentions.

Cannot wait to see how the USSR 2.0 will finally collapse in agony, and mobilization will only speed up this process
In memory of Geoff "iNcontroL" Robinson 11.09.1985 - 21.07.2019 A tribute to incredible man, embodiment of joy, esports titan, starcraft community pillar all in one. You will always be remembered!
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 20 2022 18:42 GMT
#4516
Putin was supposed to give a speech with Shoigu hours ago and has gone missing. Anyone else waiting for swan lake to start playing?
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation610 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-20 19:00:26
September 20 2022 18:53 GMT
#4517
On September 21 2022 01:11 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2022 00:13 Ardias wrote:
On September 21 2022 00:00 Sent. wrote:
Introducing a special law to punish "voluntary surrenders" makes it look like desertions are considered a serious problem, something more than rare individual cases. I wonder how many Russians surrendered like that since february.

This also feels like a pointless action because I doubt they're planning to use those laws retroactively. The new "contractors" know they're going to war so the desertion rate should be much lower among them.

First of all, "surrender" and "desertion" are separate articles. "Surrender" would mean surrendering to AFU troops, while "desertion" would be abandoning your unit/fleeing etc.

I'll elaborate about those "500s" from my previous post. There are soldiers, who are still part of a combat unit (let's say 200th Motor Rifle Brigade for example). Let's say 1500 contract soldiers from this brigade were ordered to go to Ukraine, but 500 refused. They are now sitting in PPD (place of permanent dislocation) of the brigade. Some had their contracts expired and left the army, but others did not. Now, they won't be punished retroactively for refusing to go to Ukraine in February. However, they could be given new order to move to Ukraine, and if there is state of martial law, mobilization or they are sitting in Ukraine (some refuse to fight even while being there) - now they would be charged with violation of criminal law.

That’d be some grade A bullshit if you signed up under one set of rules and they change the contract on you mid term. Can’t quit, can’t stick to the terms of the original contract, gotta go play hide and seek with drone/satellite guided munitions.

I've never signed a military contract, but the vast majority of civilian ones have a clause regarding rights and obligations of the parties (after underlining a specific ones) - "Other rights/other obligations according to the legislation of Russian Federation". So change of legislation may invoke new rights/obligations on you (not retroactively, of course, but from the moment legislation has kicked in).

On September 21 2022 00:32 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2022 00:17 JimmiC wrote:
On September 20 2022 23:35 Ardias wrote:
On September 20 2022 20:25 Magic Powers wrote:
Looks like Russia is one step closer to full mobilization. If it goes as expected, the bill will pass and Putin is going to sign it.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

The most important part at the moment is "refusal to serve". There are plenty of contract soldiers of units that are involved in combat, who refuse to fight on the front line (so called "500s"). They are in their right, because there is no war declared, hence, by Russian legislation, contract troopers aren't obliged to get into combat, and can refuse to do so, and conscripts can't be used outside Russian territory. And as much different people like to say that there are no working laws in Russia - there are, that's why they are changing the laws themselves.
New legislation, would make those 500s criminals for refusing to go into combat even if there is no "war" declared. These additions to the Criminal Code operate with terms "armed conflict" and "combat action", avoiding term "war" at all. These additions also increase punishment for desertion, and impose 2 new criminal articles - "Voluntarily surrender" and "Marauding".
Though terms "Mobilization", "Martial law" and "War time" are also legally introduced into Criminal Code.

Also, suddenly, LDPR plus Russian authorities of Kherson and Zaporozhie regions declared that referendums would be held from 23.09 to 27.09, so literally 3 days from now on.

Edit: Also Putin and, probably, Shoigu, should make statements this evening, probably regarding referendums and those amendmends to Criminal Code (these passed through the lower parliament either yesterday or today, then they should be verified by upper parliament and signed by president).

Edit2: it was also announced, that anyone, no matter the country of origin, who signed a contract with Russian army for a year, will recieve Russian citizenship quickly, if they are willing to.

I find it fascinating how there are certain rules Putin follows and others he just has the FBS throw people off of stuff. I also find the timing so interesting, he can make any rule he wants at anytime, why wait until now for this?


This is why I called it a psyops. Just doing it would lead to direct problems where they'd need to coerce at the individual level. If you do it at the state level you: a) hope to coerce all these men immediately through the threat of incarceration, b) send a message to the West that you're serious about not backing down.

Of course, if the bluff is called, all the same problems resurface.

I very much doubt that it's a bluff, at least regarding the legislation change and referendums being held. Legislation changes passed through State Duma (lower parliament) unanimously in the span of two days. This speed is unprecedented for Russian legislation, especially for such an important bill. Date of referendums is also very close, too close to postpone it again, as it was done before, when the date of referendums was couple of months in advance and each region told their own version. Now all four of them simultaneously went for 23.09. I doubt htey would be postponing this one.

Also, some Russian military tg channels are reporting that AFU are bringing every piece of their reserves to the front. In light of the information regarding referendums, we may see some major action in the next few days.

On September 21 2022 03:42 Ghanburighan wrote:
Putin was supposed to give a speech with Shoigu hours ago and has gone missing. Anyone else waiting for swan lake to start playing?

It's supposed to start soon, it's not the first time he is postponing this stuff (something like that was in May). I also think that those who are able to organize a swan lake are in the same boat with him on that one.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 20 2022 19:09 GMT
#4518
On September 21 2022 03:53 Ardias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2022 01:11 KwarK wrote:
On September 21 2022 00:13 Ardias wrote:
On September 21 2022 00:00 Sent. wrote:
Introducing a special law to punish "voluntary surrenders" makes it look like desertions are considered a serious problem, something more than rare individual cases. I wonder how many Russians surrendered like that since february.

This also feels like a pointless action because I doubt they're planning to use those laws retroactively. The new "contractors" know they're going to war so the desertion rate should be much lower among them.

First of all, "surrender" and "desertion" are separate articles. "Surrender" would mean surrendering to AFU troops, while "desertion" would be abandoning your unit/fleeing etc.

I'll elaborate about those "500s" from my previous post. There are soldiers, who are still part of a combat unit (let's say 200th Motor Rifle Brigade for example). Let's say 1500 contract soldiers from this brigade were ordered to go to Ukraine, but 500 refused. They are now sitting in PPD (place of permanent dislocation) of the brigade. Some had their contracts expired and left the army, but others did not. Now, they won't be punished retroactively for refusing to go to Ukraine in February. However, they could be given new order to move to Ukraine, and if there is state of martial law, mobilization or they are sitting in Ukraine (some refuse to fight even while being there) - now they would be charged with violation of criminal law.

That’d be some grade A bullshit if you signed up under one set of rules and they change the contract on you mid term. Can’t quit, can’t stick to the terms of the original contract, gotta go play hide and seek with drone/satellite guided munitions.

I've never signed a military contract, but the vast majority of civilian ones have a clause regarding rights and obligations of the parties (after underlining a specific ones) - "Other rights/other obligations according to the legislation of Russian Federation". So change of legislation may invoke new rights/obligations on you (not retroactively, of course, but from the moment legislation has kicked in).

Show nested quote +
On September 21 2022 00:32 Ghanburighan wrote:
On September 21 2022 00:17 JimmiC wrote:
On September 20 2022 23:35 Ardias wrote:
On September 20 2022 20:25 Magic Powers wrote:
Looks like Russia is one step closer to full mobilization. If it goes as expected, the bill will pass and Putin is going to sign it.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

The most important part at the moment is "refusal to serve". There are plenty of contract soldiers of units that are involved in combat, who refuse to fight on the front line (so called "500s"). They are in their right, because there is no war declared, hence, by Russian legislation, contract troopers aren't obliged to get into combat, and can refuse to do so, and conscripts can't be used outside Russian territory. And as much different people like to say that there are no working laws in Russia - there are, that's why they are changing the laws themselves.
New legislation, would make those 500s criminals for refusing to go into combat even if there is no "war" declared. These additions to the Criminal Code operate with terms "armed conflict" and "combat action", avoiding term "war" at all. These additions also increase punishment for desertion, and impose 2 new criminal articles - "Voluntarily surrender" and "Marauding".
Though terms "Mobilization", "Martial law" and "War time" are also legally introduced into Criminal Code.

Also, suddenly, LDPR plus Russian authorities of Kherson and Zaporozhie regions declared that referendums would be held from 23.09 to 27.09, so literally 3 days from now on.

Edit: Also Putin and, probably, Shoigu, should make statements this evening, probably regarding referendums and those amendmends to Criminal Code (these passed through the lower parliament either yesterday or today, then they should be verified by upper parliament and signed by president).

Edit2: it was also announced, that anyone, no matter the country of origin, who signed a contract with Russian army for a year, will recieve Russian citizenship quickly, if they are willing to.

I find it fascinating how there are certain rules Putin follows and others he just has the FBS throw people off of stuff. I also find the timing so interesting, he can make any rule he wants at anytime, why wait until now for this?


This is why I called it a psyops. Just doing it would lead to direct problems where they'd need to coerce at the individual level. If you do it at the state level you: a) hope to coerce all these men immediately through the threat of incarceration, b) send a message to the West that you're serious about not backing down.

Of course, if the bluff is called, all the same problems resurface.

I very much doubt that it's a bluff, at least regarding the legislation change and referendums being held. Legislation changes passed through State Duma (lower parliament) unanimously in the span of two days. This speed is unprecedented for Russian legislation, especially for such an important bill. Date of referendums is also very close, too close to postpone it again, as it was done before, when the date of referendums was couple of months in advance and each region told their own version. Now all four of them simultaneously went for 23.09. I doubt htey would be postponing this one.

Also, some Russian military tg channels are reporting that AFU are bringing every piece of their reserves to the front. In light of the information regarding referendums, we may see some major action in the next few days.

Show nested quote +
On September 21 2022 03:42 Ghanburighan wrote:
Putin was supposed to give a speech with Shoigu hours ago and has gone missing. Anyone else waiting for swan lake to start playing?

It's supposed to start soon, it's not the first time he is postponing this stuff (something like that was in May). I also think that those who are able to organize a swan lake are in the same boat with him on that one.


Just to clarify, I don't doubt that the legislation and referenda are going pass. I'm saying that it's a bluff in the sense that they don't solve the problems unless other parties, whether refuseniks or Western leaders, change their stance voluntarily. These measures won't change the situation.

Glad you got the Swan Lake reference.

P.S. Should worst come to worst, do you have a plan as to how to avoid the coming shitstorm, Ardias? Stay safe.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation610 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-20 20:30:48
September 20 2022 19:25 GMT
#4519
On September 21 2022 04:09 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2022 03:53 Ardias wrote:
On September 21 2022 01:11 KwarK wrote:
On September 21 2022 00:13 Ardias wrote:
On September 21 2022 00:00 Sent. wrote:
Introducing a special law to punish "voluntary surrenders" makes it look like desertions are considered a serious problem, something more than rare individual cases. I wonder how many Russians surrendered like that since february.

This also feels like a pointless action because I doubt they're planning to use those laws retroactively. The new "contractors" know they're going to war so the desertion rate should be much lower among them.

First of all, "surrender" and "desertion" are separate articles. "Surrender" would mean surrendering to AFU troops, while "desertion" would be abandoning your unit/fleeing etc.

I'll elaborate about those "500s" from my previous post. There are soldiers, who are still part of a combat unit (let's say 200th Motor Rifle Brigade for example). Let's say 1500 contract soldiers from this brigade were ordered to go to Ukraine, but 500 refused. They are now sitting in PPD (place of permanent dislocation) of the brigade. Some had their contracts expired and left the army, but others did not. Now, they won't be punished retroactively for refusing to go to Ukraine in February. However, they could be given new order to move to Ukraine, and if there is state of martial law, mobilization or they are sitting in Ukraine (some refuse to fight even while being there) - now they would be charged with violation of criminal law.

That’d be some grade A bullshit if you signed up under one set of rules and they change the contract on you mid term. Can’t quit, can’t stick to the terms of the original contract, gotta go play hide and seek with drone/satellite guided munitions.

I've never signed a military contract, but the vast majority of civilian ones have a clause regarding rights and obligations of the parties (after underlining a specific ones) - "Other rights/other obligations according to the legislation of Russian Federation". So change of legislation may invoke new rights/obligations on you (not retroactively, of course, but from the moment legislation has kicked in).

On September 21 2022 00:32 Ghanburighan wrote:
On September 21 2022 00:17 JimmiC wrote:
On September 20 2022 23:35 Ardias wrote:
On September 20 2022 20:25 Magic Powers wrote:
Looks like Russia is one step closer to full mobilization. If it goes as expected, the bill will pass and Putin is going to sign it.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

The most important part at the moment is "refusal to serve". There are plenty of contract soldiers of units that are involved in combat, who refuse to fight on the front line (so called "500s"). They are in their right, because there is no war declared, hence, by Russian legislation, contract troopers aren't obliged to get into combat, and can refuse to do so, and conscripts can't be used outside Russian territory. And as much different people like to say that there are no working laws in Russia - there are, that's why they are changing the laws themselves.
New legislation, would make those 500s criminals for refusing to go into combat even if there is no "war" declared. These additions to the Criminal Code operate with terms "armed conflict" and "combat action", avoiding term "war" at all. These additions also increase punishment for desertion, and impose 2 new criminal articles - "Voluntarily surrender" and "Marauding".
Though terms "Mobilization", "Martial law" and "War time" are also legally introduced into Criminal Code.

Also, suddenly, LDPR plus Russian authorities of Kherson and Zaporozhie regions declared that referendums would be held from 23.09 to 27.09, so literally 3 days from now on.

Edit: Also Putin and, probably, Shoigu, should make statements this evening, probably regarding referendums and those amendmends to Criminal Code (these passed through the lower parliament either yesterday or today, then they should be verified by upper parliament and signed by president).

Edit2: it was also announced, that anyone, no matter the country of origin, who signed a contract with Russian army for a year, will recieve Russian citizenship quickly, if they are willing to.

I find it fascinating how there are certain rules Putin follows and others he just has the FBS throw people off of stuff. I also find the timing so interesting, he can make any rule he wants at anytime, why wait until now for this?


This is why I called it a psyops. Just doing it would lead to direct problems where they'd need to coerce at the individual level. If you do it at the state level you: a) hope to coerce all these men immediately through the threat of incarceration, b) send a message to the West that you're serious about not backing down.

Of course, if the bluff is called, all the same problems resurface.

I very much doubt that it's a bluff, at least regarding the legislation change and referendums being held. Legislation changes passed through State Duma (lower parliament) unanimously in the span of two days. This speed is unprecedented for Russian legislation, especially for such an important bill. Date of referendums is also very close, too close to postpone it again, as it was done before, when the date of referendums was couple of months in advance and each region told their own version. Now all four of them simultaneously went for 23.09. I doubt htey would be postponing this one.

Also, some Russian military tg channels are reporting that AFU are bringing every piece of their reserves to the front. In light of the information regarding referendums, we may see some major action in the next few days.

On September 21 2022 03:42 Ghanburighan wrote:
Putin was supposed to give a speech with Shoigu hours ago and has gone missing. Anyone else waiting for swan lake to start playing?

It's supposed to start soon, it's not the first time he is postponing this stuff (something like that was in May). I also think that those who are able to organize a swan lake are in the same boat with him on that one.


Just to clarify, I don't doubt that the legislation and referenda are going pass. I'm saying that it's a bluff in the sense that they don't solve the problems unless other parties, whether refuseniks or Western leaders, change their stance voluntarily. These measures won't change the situation.

Glad you got the Swan Lake reference.

P.S. Should worst come to worst, do you have a plan as to how to avoid the coming shitstorm, Ardias? Stay safe.

I actually could be wrong regarding the swan lake (hard to not know it being Russian and interested in history of your country), seems that Putin won't be up today at least.

As for the measures - it depends on practical implications of them, which includes the ability of forcing the "500s" to move into Ukraine and if conscripts would be sent there after the referendums (and how will they act).

As of me - well, I have one of the lowest readiness degrees of health according to the military health comission, so even if mobilization is in force, there isn't a high chance of me going to the trench line (the thing that preserved me from sitting now in Kherson somewhere, since I wanted to pursue a military career in my youth, but was denied because of one health issue, so I didn't even complete conscript service).
And if you are asking what I would do if Russia would crumble and turn to Wild West (or East, for that matter) - well, my dad has two hunting rifles, and I know how to use one (though probably should get a license and aquire one for myself, while I have a chance). My relatives are here, my wife is here, my friends are here, so I don't have anywhere to run anyway.
Thanks, and you too.

Edit: after these news there is a common joke in the Russian Internet regarding mobilization:
>Be required to show for conscription
>Try to avoid it
>Get caught, sentenced and set to prison
>Prigozhin comes and recruits you to Wagner
>You now have payment (which conscripts won't get) and you are free after half a year (while conscripts would serve till the end of the war)
>?????
>PROFIT

Edit2: though mobilized troops in LDPR actually get payment, less than Wagner though ofc.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 20 2022 20:26 GMT
#4520
That's actually hilarious.

Soviet union humour cannot be overstated. Time to dig out my old Master and Margarita by Bulgakov.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
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