Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 227

September 21 overview of the previous day. Certainly, the referendums organized by Russia and the subsequent political moves are an important development in the war in Ukraine. Russia's main goal is to regain the initiative that it completely lost. Although the Russian president postponed his planned address for last night, it probably won't change their planned moves too much. What can be concluded:
- since the beginning of the offensive in Ukraine in the last week of August, the political leadership of Russia has not spoken much. At first, they tried to hide the invasion, but after the Izyum disaster, it was no longer possible.
- The Russian leadership has realized the extent of their military defeat and the hopeless situation of their army to bring about a turn on the battlefield. Russia has run out of reserves. Yesterday, the sources of the Ukrainian army announced that Russia will withdraw its paratroopers from Syria (This is Putin's personal prestige project). In addition, the Ukrainians claim that Russia has moved conscript units to the border areas of Ukraine. They then have to provide logistical support and would be an emergency cover unit if the Russian front were to completely collapse.
- Obviously, such haste with political moves is also related to a slight panic. This means that the situation of their military in the Kherson region and Northern Donbass is much worse than it appears. On the other hand, of course, it is necessary to hurry so that Ukraine does not have time to organize attacks, so that the already fictitious and simulated referendums do not become completely ridiculous.
Russia is likely to try to achieve the following.
- The most important thing is to regain the initiative and give the impression that Russia can still escalate the conflict and still has some resources to win the war.
- An important hope was the psychological impact on Western countries. If the occupied territories are annexed, it would be like threatening the continuation of the attacks on Ukraine, that it is an attack on Russia, and declaring a state of war and mobilization. It is known that Western countries have not supplied Ukraine with more capable weapons on the grounds that Ukraine could then attack Russian territory. Now, yesterday, all the important players in the West made statements that they do not recognize the referendums and that the politics of Ukraine will not change. Hopefully it will stay that way
- Russia no longer has the ability to form so-called volunteer reserves. Even to hold the areas currently occupied, there will soon be no more troops. Since Russia has not been able to initiate any process of peace talks suitable for it, preparations for the winter campaign are being made during the last month. For this, however, it would obviously be necessary to carry out a mobilization. Since the rhetoric of the past has been quite the opposite, now referendums and other political and legislative initiatives are creating a suitable political context for this.
- Russia is definitely not planning a general mobilization. On the one hand, there is no capacity for this, and there is also no need to bring together nearly 2 million men who cannot be organized, trained, or equipped. This is what the Russian leadership will certainly do. Since the use of conscripts in war would be a very high domestic political risk, it is plausible that the mobilization would affect only a small part of the reserve. It is a separate story that these units will not achieve special combat capability during the next 3-4 months. And this if they were mobilized today.
- In military terms, Russia will not be able to achieve a revolution in the near future. Preparations are being made so that the front does not collapse during the winter and new attacks can be launched in the spring. On the part of Ukraine, it certainly mobilizes and motivates to invade faster. I hope not to make hasty moves.
- In the direction of Lyman, Ukrainian units continue to pressurize, there were no changes in the terrain during yesterday's day.
- In the direction of Lyssyshchansk/Severodonetsk, there are no changes on the front line either. Ukraine has made several successful long-range fire attacks on Russian rears throughout the northern Donbass region. It seemed that in the coming days the Ukrainian units would be able to push forward more
- In the direction of Bahmut, Russian units continued with unsuccessful offensive attempts south of the city.
- Russian units were also more active in the vicinity of the city of Donetsk yesterday, but remained in their positions.
- There are no changes on the southern front. In the city of Melitopol, there were at least two major hits in places where Russian troops were stationed yesterday.
- In the Kherson region, Ukrainian units are making at least a little progress every day. But more important were the Ukrainian attacks of the last two days in the Kahovka and Kherson regions on Russian units trying to cross the river. The losses of the Russian side in this region remain very high.
The initiative on the fronts continues to be in the hands of Ukraine, the Russian side has not been able to do much except attacks on civilian infrastructure.

On September 21 2022 16:04 Ghanburighan wrote:
Here's a nice summary thread:

- Partial mobilization: only some reservists + regional governors get to decide how many people to send. Shoigu mentions 300k, this number is almost certainly baloney, just like his claim of 5900 casualties on the RU side.

On September 21 2022 17:39 r00ty wrote:
There is a lot that can be done without just sending new weapon systems. General Wesley Clarke, mentioned in this CNN interview + Show Spoiler +, that most NATO sponsored equipment must be dragged back to Poland for repair and maintenance at the moment. Western contractors in Ukraine would make a huge difference here.

I think sending Leopard tanks does not make sense. It's a complicated system, training and establishing a supply chain will take time. Are main battle tanks the factor in this war? I doubt it.
I would:
-Buy all available T72s and other systems, they have experience with and the infrastructure for: Send them to Ukraine.
-Deliver more conventional and rocket artillery. KRAD, M777, PzH 2000 and HIMARS/MARS are effectively used, send as much as we can.
-Open the vaults for ammunitions. There's other forms of improvement than the 500km ATACMS missiles: Delivering 150km precision missiles should be the first step and we should not wait.
-As mentioned, we need to get contractors on the ground in Ukraine to make the supply chains less complicated and they should be accompanied by modern anti air and missile systems. The Russian air force can't take control now, we don't need jets on the ground to basically enforce a no fly zone.

Another sad day for all Ukrainians and Russians who will keep dieing in this senseless conflict.

On September 21 2022 18:03 Ghanburighan wrote:


The difference between T72s and Leopard 2s is twofold.
- Most freely available T72s were already sent to UA. There are more than 2000 Leopard 2s near UA, so getting less than 100 of them sent among all nations shouldn't be that hard. But, this must be allowed by DE, as the export of DE-made equipment needs their approval. Maintenance facilities, spare parts, and trainers are freely available nearby. (This is also why Abrams would be a worse choice, distances increase.)
- Leopard 2s are much more survivable and will allow UA to conduct combined arms offensives with fewer casualties. And these are necessary to take back territory.

UA has shown the ability to maintain its current Western equipment and use them effectively. It's odd to assume it cannot do so with tanks when it can use and maintain complex howitzers such as the PZH 2000. Tbh, they should have been sent for this autumn offensive, but they definitely should be sent now, because:

- UA showcased exemplary capability to conduct combined arms offensives in Kharkiv,
- Setting up training and maintenance will take a while.
- RU wants to escalate, but its lines are vulnerable to collapse in the short-to-medium term.