NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Daily dose of Rainer Saks. This time he's talking about the continuation of the north offensive near Lyman, Yampil and Kreminna. Overall tone is that it's unsustainable for RU to try to continue this war, with wide-ranging effects if it tries, the first of which we're seeing in between Armenia and Azerbaijan now.
Summary of September 13 - Yesterday, the Ukrainian offensive in the north and south of Ukraine continued. Russia is trying to respond with fiercer missile attacks on Kharkiv and other cities as well. It will not break the offensive power of Ukraine. - In the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine is still in the process of clearing all liberated border areas and establishing control over the border. It is clear that Russia will no longer be able to attack from the north in this war, although artillery attacks will continue in Sumy oblast and in the future probably also in the border areas of Kharkiv region. Sooner or later, Ukraine will do something very serious about this. Just in case, Russia is evacuating people from Ukrainian border settlements. The risk of Belarus going to war is now very low. In the coming weeks, some of Ukraine's most capable units will become available from the north. - The direction of Izyum no longer exists, but Ukraine continues to clear the liberated areas - apparently, many Russian soldiers left behind have not yet been caught. Russia is trying to build some sort of defense along the line of the Oskil River, basically to prevent a Ukrainian advance to cover the Severdonetsk/Lyssytsansk region. Ukraine, for its part, is trying to prevent it. However, the key question in the coming days is whether Ukraine will be able to finally break the Russian defense on the Donets River and capture the cities of Lyman, Yampil and Kreminna. In several places, Ukrainian troops have already managed to cross the river and are advancing despite battles. If they succeed in this maneuver, the Russian forces will not be able to establish a defense on the Oskil River, and in addition, the Russian units in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will come under heavy pressure. Thus, the initiative in the Kramatorsk/Siversk direction has also flipped towards the Ukrainian forces. The danger that Russia could invade the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk and capture the entire Donbas has disappeared. Ukrainian forces face tough battles. Apparently, the focus in this region is on liberating the northern areas of Lugansk Oblast, as long as Russia has a chance to organize defense in this region. - In the direction of Bakhmut, Russian units tried to attack in the southern sector, but they did not succeed. - In southern Donbas, Russian units have made some attempts to attack south of the city of Donetsk, but also without success. There are rumors that Ukraine is putting more pressure on Russian units in this region, but for the time being it should not be taken very seriously. Rather, these are bursts of panic coming from the Russian side - the capabilities of the Ukrainian artillery are simply constantly growing. From the Vugledar area, Ukaina has not yet tried to advance, which at the moment would not be expected. - There is an artillery duel on the southern front, the initiative may be on the Ukrainian side, as they hit important targets. - In the Kherson region, there are signs that the Russian defense is beginning to crumble little by little. There is still no confirmation of breakthroughs by the Ukrainian forces, although rumors are spreading, but in the next few days we can expect a small advance of the Ukrainian units. The Russian rear on the west bank of the Dnieper is faltering and logistics are clearly paralyzed. All attempts to build pontoon bridges across the Dnieper have ended in failure. The claim that Russian units are negotiating to surrender may have some truth about some individual units, and not about the whole group of forces. It would be the last moment for the Russian command to try to evacuate the troops from the west bank of the Dnieper. It would be possible to get some men from there. We're starting to see the first plausible reports on the losses of Russian troops in the Izyum region. Certainly, the western military district has suffered such losses that in the coming years they will no longer be capable of combat. The 1st Guards Tank Army actually de facto no longer exists. In terms of technology, Russia will no longer be able to recover these losses during this war. The troops withdrawn from Izyum are no longer capable of combat. The general situation would sometimes require a slightly broader, separate treatment. Azerbaijan's attack on Armenia, which began this morning, also shows that Russia's influence in the areas traditionally controlled by them is rapidly diminishing. The Russian leadership would have one last chance to avoid losing its entire army and quickly retreat to the February 23 line, or even better, leave all of Ukraine.
Original: 13. septembri kokkuvõte - eile Ukraina pealetung põhja ning lõuna Ukrainas jätkus. Venemaa üritab vastata ägedamate raketirünnakutega Harkivile ja ka teistele linnadele. Ukraina ründejõudu see ei murra. - Harkivi suunal on Ukraina veel ametis kogu vabastatud piirialade puhastamisega ning kontrolli kehtestamisega piiri üle. Selge on see, et Põhja suunalt venemaa selles sõjas enam rünnata ei suuda, kuigi jätkatakse suurtükiväe rünnakuid Sumõ bolasti ja edaspidi ilmselt ka Harkivi oblasti piiriäärsetele aladele. Varem või hiljem võtab Ukraina selles suhtes midagi väga tõsist ette. Igaks juhuks evakueerib venemaa inimesi Ukraina piiriäärsetest asulatest. Valgevene sõtta astumise oht on nüüd väga madal. Lähinädalatel vabanevad põhja suunalt osa Ukraina väga võimekatest üksustest. - Izjumi suunda enam ei eksisteeri, kuid Ukraina jätkab veel vabastatud alade puhastamist - ilmselt on palju mahajäänud vene sõdureid veel kätte saamata. Venemaa üritab üles ehitada mingit kaitset Oskili jõe joonele, et põhiliselt vältida Ukraina edasitungi Severdonetski/Lõssõtsanski piirkonna selja teha. Ukraina omalt poolt üritab seda takistada. Lähipäevade võtmeküsimuseks on aga hoopis, kas Ukraina suudab lõplikult purustada vene kaitse Donetsti jõel ja vallutada Lõmani, Jampoli ja Kremina linnad. Mitmes kohas on Ukraina väed juba suutnud jõe ületada ning tungivad lahingutega edasi. Kui see manööver neil õnnestub, ei ole vene vägedel võimalik kaitset Oskili jõel püsti saada ning lisaks satuvad vene üksused Severodonetskis ja Lõssõtsanskis tugeva surve alla. Seega on ka initsiatiiv Kramatorski/Siverski suunal läinud Ukraina vägedele. Kadunud on oht, et venemaa võiks tungida Slavjanski ja Kramatorski linnadesse ning kogu Donbassi hõivamisele üldse. Ukraina vägedel seisavad ees rasked lahingud. Ilmselt keskendutakse siin piirkonnas Luganski oblasti põhjapoolsete alade vabastamisele, seni, kui venemaa ei ole suutnud siin piirkonnas kaitset korraldada. - Bahmuti suunal üritasid vene üksused veel pealetunge lõunapoolses sektoris, aga edu ei saavutnud - Lõuna- Donbassis on vene üksused teinud mõned katsed veel rünnata Donetski linnast lõunas, aga samuti eduta. Liiguvad kuuldused, et Ukraina on avaldamas tugevamt survet vene üksustele siin piirkonnas, aga esialgu ei võtaks seda veel väga tõsiselt. Pigem on need vene poolelt tulevad paanika pursked - Ukraina suurtükiväe võimekus lihtsalt kasvab pidevalt. Vugledari piirkonnast ei ole Ukaina veel samuti edasliikumist üritanud, mida hetkel ka väga ei ootaks. - Lõunarindel käib suurtükiduell, initsiatiiv võib olla Ukraina poolel, kuna nad tabavad olulisi sihtmärke. - Hersoni piirkonnas on märke, et vene kaitse hakkab pisitasa lagunema. Veel ei ole kinnitust Ukrana vägede läbimurretele, kuigi kuulujutte levib, aga lähipäevil võiks oodata Ukraina üksuste väikest edenemist küll. Vene tagala Dnepri läänekaldal on vankumas ning logistika selgelt paralüseeritud. Kõik katsed ehitada pontoonsildu üle Dnepri on lõppenud õnnetult. Väide, et vene üksused peavad läbirääkimisi allaandmise üle võivad omada tõepõhja mõne üksisku üksuse osas, mitte ei käi terve väegrupi kohta. Vene väejuhatusel oleks viimane hetk üritada väed Dnepri läänekaldalt evakueerida. Mõned mehed õnnestuks vahest sealt veel ära tuua. Vene vägede kaotuste kohta Izjumi piirkonnas hakkab ilmuma esimesi usutavana tunduvaid kokkuvõtteid. Kindlasti on lääne sõjaväeringkond kandnud selliseid kaotusi, et lähiaastatel nad lahingvõimelised enam ei ole. 1. tankiarmee faktiliselt enam ei eksisteeri. Tehnika osas venemaa neid kaotusi taastada selle sõja jooksul enam ei suuda. Izjumist välja toodud väed ei ole enam võitlusvõimelised. Üldine olukord vajaks vahest natuke laiemat eraldi käsitlemist. Ka täna hommikul alanud Aserbaižaani rünnak Armeenia vastu näitab, et venemaa mõju traditsioonilistes nende kontrolli all olnud piirkondades hakkab kiiresti kahanema. Venemaa juhtkonnal oleks veel viimane võimalus vältida kogu oma armee kaotamist ning taanduda kiiresti 23 veebruari joonele, veel parem, lahkuda kogu Ukrainast.
The Armenia/Azerbaijan situation is quite bad for Russia. Previously Armenia was able to hold off Azerbaijan thanks to Russian help, which might not come this time and Azerbaijan (whose military is superior to that of Armenia) is backed up by Turkey.
On September 13 2022 18:50 Manit0u wrote: The Armenia/Azerbaijan situation is quite bad for Russia. Previously Armenia was able to hold off Azerbaijan thanks to Russian help, which might not come this time and Azerbaijan (whose military is superior to that of Armenia) is backed up by Turkey.
Also, Azerbaijan delivers gas to some EU countries so here is another little proxy war maybe.
Once again the game of hot potato starts again, last time it was regarding Jets, now it is Tanks. Which appears to be, once again, Germany having concerns. Makes me wonder if Germany wants contracts agreed to before sending out their stocks, which apparently are set to be retired anyways, no idea how the jets were concerning. But the two offensives successes show that Tanks and other Armor was vitally important.
Now whether this is the US calling Germany's bluff is anyone's guess.
You mean the completely unchanged position of Germany to follow the common NATO position (which is basically dictated by the US) How is the shipping of all those abundant Abrams going? That would probably trigger a chain reaction from tanks across entire Europe.
On September 13 2022 18:50 Manit0u wrote: The Armenia/Azerbaijan situation is quite bad for Russia. Previously Armenia was able to hold off Azerbaijan thanks to Russian help, which might not come this time and Azerbaijan (whose military is superior to that of Armenia) is backed up by Turkey.
Also, Azerbaijan delivers gas to some EU countries so here is another little proxy war maybe.
Azerbajain controls Baku which is a traditional oil hub. From the facilities there they can make a pipeline from baku over through to the black sea and unlock Iranian,Turkmenistani, and uzbekistani energy reserves.
The proxy war in the caucuses may be a sideshow for the immediate but it can represent a foundational loss for Russia's future if they lose.
On September 14 2022 01:38 Sent. wrote: Please add some kind of a summary when posting tweets in German.
Let me help you out here: The tweets are by the US embassy in Germany
1. We value the military support of Germany for Ukraine and will continue to coordinate with Berlin. The policy of the US has not changed. 2. As ambassador Gutmann explained in her interview on Sep 11, we call on all allies and partners to support Ukraine in its fight for its democratic sovereignty as much as possible. 3. The decision on the kind of support finally lies with each country itself.
On September 14 2022 01:38 Sent. wrote: Please add some kind of a summary when posting tweets in German.
The US embassy in Berlin is responding to a BILD column that states everyone agrees that Tanks should be sent, including the Green party, but that the SPD party is resistant. Now I have no idea what BILD is on the reputation in Germany.
All Greens and FDP ministers are currently said to support the delivery of German tanks to Ukraine. Only the SPD-led Chancellery and then the other social-democratic ministries would resist.
As for the Abrams, I don't believe they are set to be retired. Though there are tons just sitting out in the deserts of the Southwest.
On September 14 2022 01:38 Sent. wrote: Please add some kind of a summary when posting tweets in German.
The US embassy in Berlin is responding to a BILD column that states everyone agrees that Tanks should be sent, including the Green party, but that the SPD party is resistant. Now I have no idea what BILD is on the reputation in Germany.
All Greens and FDP ministers are currently said to support the delivery of German tanks to Ukraine. Only the SPD-led Chancellery and then the other social-democratic ministries would resist.
As for the Abrams, I don't believe they are set to be retired. Though there are tons just sitting out in the deserts of the Southwest.
BILD is the shittiest of Tabloids. Think "The Sun" or similar.
On September 14 2022 01:00 mahrgell wrote: You mean the completely unchanged position of Germany to follow the common NATO position (which is basically dictated by the US) How is the shipping of all those abundant Abrams going? That would probably trigger a chain reaction from tanks across entire Europe.
Dictated by US? No, my friend. That's not how it works. Everyone is a bit surprised at how much restraint the US is showing at NATO, prioritizing unity, but they're definitely not the ones telling everyone not to send tanks. At best, I would describe the current situation as "The US doesn't want other countries to look bad, so they won't send tanks immediately".
Also, everyone I know at NATO has said: "Fuck the French" these couple of weeks. Don't exactly know why. Closed doors and such. Perhaps we'll find out soon.
P.S. The "fuck the French" sentiment has also come from several French diplomats... So I really don't know what this is about.
France is actually showing less support than Germany towards Ukraine, but has much better PR. Many French companies refused to exit Russia and are still cooperating, they are also sending less military/financial aid. French ties to Russia are less obvious though than German reliance on fossil fuels, so it escapes the public eye. At least if You take only brief look.
Ukraine continues to make advances, but territorial gains were ~10-20x slower than in previous days. Blinken says the counter offensive is only just beginning. It's possible that Ukraine is deliberately slowing down to consolidate and to formulate a plan before continuing to push, but that's only my speculation.
On September 14 2022 09:31 Magic Powers wrote: Ukraine continues to make advances, but territorial gains were ~10-20x slower than in previous days. Blinken says the counter offensive is only just beginning. It's possible that Ukraine is deliberately slowing down to consolidate and to formulate a plan before continuing to push, but that's only my speculation.
That's my bet. They need to secure the land they reclaimed, resupply, regroup, and formulate another plan.
They need to comb through the areas they've taken, clearing out pockets of Russians left behind, equipment left behind, war crimes left behind, and bodies of civilians tortured and killed to bury.
On September 14 2022 09:31 Magic Powers wrote: Ukraine continues to make advances, but territorial gains were ~10-20x slower than in previous days. Blinken says the counter offensive is only just beginning. It's possible that Ukraine is deliberately slowing down to consolidate and to formulate a plan before continuing to push, but that's only my speculation.
Exhausting themselves and running ahead of their supply chain would be a mistake. Better to rest after a good week of lighting-fast progress and allow the support to catch up. The momentum is still in their favour in the east and morale of Russian troops and their DPR and LPR allies there appears to have hit rock bottom. Some slowdown shouldn't dramatically change the big picture.
The Kherson offensive is also a grinding effort, but Ukraine would be wise to be patient there from what I've read. It's not as flat as the Kharkiv region, Russia's concentrated a great deal of its forces in the city knowing its strategic value, and it would bog down Ukraine into the hell of urban warfare if they pushed too deep without sufficiently weakening the Russian military first.
I am a pacifist and I support the rights of the Ukrainian people to be independent from Russia.
That said,
I do not believe Russia wishes to permanently occupy Ukrainian territory, I believe Putin's aim is to repeatedly wreck Ukrainian cities, civic centres and systems until it is a no man's land, a perpetual war zone that would provide a buffer against further NATO expansion or infringement.
The conflict ignited from Ukraine being promised in the future to become a NATO state and Ukraine taking steps along that road to realise independence. Russia had repeatedly informed NATO, USA and the EU that NATO expansion towards the Ruski Mir (Russian World) was an existential threat and that force would be used if necessary to stop it. With the Ukrainian conflict, Russia is drawing a line in the sand.
When assessing the conflict with this aim in mind, the outcomes, Ukrainian forces recapturing decimated areas for example, are not the ‘wins’ they have been portrayed as in legacy media. They are just steps along the way towards Ukraine becoming what Putin intended from the beginning of the conflict. Sure if Ukrainian assets can be seized along the way, they will be, but that is secondary.
This I believe best reflects Russia’s approach to the conflict. We must keep in mind Putin has a range of military capabilities of which he can draw on; from grunts and out dated firearms etc… all the way up to nuclear missiles. But what do we see being utilized, very little of Russia’s fighter jets, very few of Russia’s high tech capabilities (ICBMs or Thermobaric weapons), no instead we see low cost baseline military personnel (very green soldiers) and machinery at use. The exact type of military approach one would expect to see if a prolonged ground conflict was the aim.
Give these same recaptured locations (which are still hot with sniper fire and soldiers deploying guerilla tactics) another few months or so and they will be reduced to rubble once again.
EPT
