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On October 25 2024 19:52 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2024 02:21 PremoBeats wrote:
@WombaT:
Do you have an opinion on the comparability of other urban warfare conflicts of the soldier-to-civilian casualty rate? Or the reasons for the proportionality disparity? As I’ve said, I’m not sure some of these conflicts are that comparable. I’m not a military buff as some are in these forums, my general impression is that the power disparity between participants, geography of the war zones and Israel’s tech capabilities are rather different. At the other end of the scale, it’s also not quite a very limited counter-insurgency operation either. It’s clearly orders of magnitudes beyond something like the Troubles in Northern Ireland Depending on the objectives and underpinning ideologies, which can influence things, my broad rule of thumb would be the closer the levels of power projection between participants, the harder you have to fight and the less discerning you can afford to be in terms of targets I’m happy to concede I don’t know, or have some particularly informed position on this. Israel’s numbers stack up well if one considers these listed as comparable conflicts. I’m unsure just how comparable they really are, across the board, though they have commonalities. Which ultimately leaves one with a problem if you want to make a comparative argument in the reverse as well. Is Israel’s conduct reasonable or not, well what does one compare it to? If you have: 1. Conflict A where both participants are vaguely equivalent in power, and lack tons of sophisticated surveillance and precision munitions, going at it. 2. Conflict B where there’s a giant gap in the ability of either side to damage the other respectively, where one has tons of sophisticated surveillance and precision munitions. Unless, in conflict B the more powerful participant actually wants to wipe their opponents out, I think you’d just naturally see more civilian deaths in conflict A It’s quite a lot to say I don’t really know, but hey I don’t really know
I agree... I wouldn't say limited either. Obviously.
And I am neither implying that all metrics of war are equal to the mentioned conflicts, but these are the ones closest to compare urban warfare.
Most of the mentioned conflicts involve significant power asymmetry with well equipped, state-supported militaries facing smaller, irregular militant groups that use guerrilla tactics and urban warfare.
Mosul: US-led coalition with Iraqi forces were highly trained and technologically advanced compared to ISIS.
Aleppo: Syrian government supported by Russian Airpower and Iranian-backed militias had a significant military advantage over the fragmented rebel groups.
Beirut: The IDF back then was more in line with other conflicts in terms of STC. This is probably the most comparable, but again - no other faction used such extreme tactics as human shields as Hamas does.
Grozny: The Russians heavily outgunned the Chechens in terms of firepower, heavy artillery and air support.
Sarajevo: The least power asymmetry I would say, although the Bosnian Serb forces had much more fire power in terms of artillery and heavy weaponry, which led to devastating sieges with constant shelling and sniper attacks.
So I get your idea of conflict A and B, but looking at Sarajevo, where the power asymmetry was much smaller, we have similar numbers to the other conflicts (except Gaza).
The STCs in Stalingrad, Berlin or Jerusalem all saw equal or worse STCs than in conflicts with high power asymmetry.
Reasons for that include:
- Prolonged and intense combat, which leads to drawn-out battles.
- To make advances, despite the first reason: Indiscriminate urban destruction (which can be seen in Gaza too... my guess is that the evacuation was a good call by the IDF to not make the death count even higher)
- Because of the first reason: More death because of disease, starvation and lack of shelter
A conflict can go one way or the other. If you have a brief struggle with equal forces, the STC can also be good. While in conflicts with high power asymmetries there can also be devastating STCs.
Looking at Gaza though, my view when looking at comparable conflicts has not changed - and so far, no one even tried to discuss this issue, thus I guess, that no one here has good arguments against the notion. Because knowing the community here, they for sure would have presented them, if they could paint Israel or the IDF as deliberate killers.
But yeah... so far, including Hamas' human shielding tactics and not separating civilians from soldiers (or journalists, minors and aid workers for that matter), I still believe that the IDF is doing extremely well. If we compare similar conflicts, even if the rate goes much worse from here on out (because more civilian deaths can be confirmed in the aftermath) Hamas was taken out effectively in terms of the STC (which is not me saying, that the absolute casualty number is somewhat low - just to make sure, if Acrofales is reading this).
Iran
Hopefully, these last couple of strikes were enough retaliation. The US said that the strikes were "extensive" and "precise", while Iran mentioned "limited damage" and a "proportional response". Let's just hope the Mullahs don't overdo it.
Although some Persian friends I had dinner with a couple of days ago, have their fingers crossed that the States and Israel take them out for good this time.
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The timing of my previous post couldn't have been worse 
This limited strike is good news, I was getting worried that they were going to overdo it.
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Iran really wants to avoid war, because they have to know they will lose very very badly.
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On October 26 2024 17:31 Dan HH wrote:The timing of my previous post couldn't have been worse This limited strike is good news, I was getting worried that they were going to overdo it.
Kind of perfect timing!
Still not much information but between just being military and Israel not bragging they are giving Iran the chance to write their own headlines and end it at this. Ball is in there court now.
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On October 13 2024 23:33 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2024 20:20 KT_Elwood wrote:On October 11 2024 20:37 Magic Powers wrote:On October 11 2024 17:15 KT_Elwood wrote:
Totally agree. Israel shall anhihilate hamas and hezbollah and then offer occupation and reeducation and a fair chance.
But for now, it's total war and nobody stops it. Gaza spent almost 20 years digging tunnels and making rockets from waterpipes.
Israel has iron dome and GBUs.
Reeducate the Untermenschen, they need saving from the master race. But first kill them. Your rhetoric resembles that of so many other historic fascists, it's incredible that you're completely incapable of noticing the overlap. Edit: just noticed Elwood is mocking people getting massacred... so this is it then, huh. We're devolving real fast around here. I know a few people who need reeducation, and it's not the Palestinians. It's the people cheering on Israel. I really think it's pointless to talk to you. Nazis getting reeducated by allied occupation suddenly is equivalent to . nazis gassing minorities.. UN leadership in NY struggeling to pull out their damn troops from a warzone despite several warnings becomes "Mocking people who get massacred" I think you are a damn troll playing tankie roll play game on forums. A pretty incredible take given that the UN has had a huge hand in Netenyahu's arrest warrant, and now they suddenly start getting slaughtered by Israel. Do you respect the right of the UN to defend itself from these attacks?
It appears Hezbollah has also started to slaughter the UN.
ight Austrian members of the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) stationed in southern Lebanon have sustained minor injuries after being hit by a rocket likely fired by Hezbollah, UNIFIL said Tuesday.
“This afternoon a rocket hit UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura, setting a vehicle workshop on fire. Peacekeepers were not in bunkers at the time,” the UN force said in a series of posts on its official X account.
According to Austrian defense ministry spokesperson Michael Bauer, the eight injured soldiers are all Austrian nationals and members of a maintenance platoon stationed in Lebanon.
The peacekeepers only sustained “minor injuries” with none of them “seriously injured,” UNIFIL said.
The peacekeeping force has opened an investigation into the incident which it said saw a rocket “fired from north of UNIFIL’s headquarters, likely by Hizbullah or an affiliated group.”
The attack was condemned in “the strongest possible terms” by Austrian defense minister Klaudia Tanner, who urged “all sides to immediately cease hostilities in the vicinity of the UN mission sites.”
This is by no means the first time that the UNIFIL headquarters have come under threat. Two UN peacekeepers were injured at the base after an Israeli tank fired toward an observation tower there on October 10, according to UNIFIL.
I'm still under the impression that these soldiers are at risk without accomplishing their goal. They either need the arms and orders to complete their mission or they should be moved out until the war is no longer hot.
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On October 30 2024 02:40 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 13 2024 23:33 Jockmcplop wrote:On October 13 2024 20:20 KT_Elwood wrote:On October 11 2024 20:37 Magic Powers wrote:On October 11 2024 17:15 KT_Elwood wrote:
Totally agree. Israel shall anhihilate hamas and hezbollah and then offer occupation and reeducation and a fair chance.
But for now, it's total war and nobody stops it. Gaza spent almost 20 years digging tunnels and making rockets from waterpipes.
Israel has iron dome and GBUs.
Reeducate the Untermenschen, they need saving from the master race. But first kill them. Your rhetoric resembles that of so many other historic fascists, it's incredible that you're completely incapable of noticing the overlap. Edit: just noticed Elwood is mocking people getting massacred... so this is it then, huh. We're devolving real fast around here. I know a few people who need reeducation, and it's not the Palestinians. It's the people cheering on Israel. I really think it's pointless to talk to you. Nazis getting reeducated by allied occupation suddenly is equivalent to . nazis gassing minorities.. UN leadership in NY struggeling to pull out their damn troops from a warzone despite several warnings becomes "Mocking people who get massacred" I think you are a damn troll playing tankie roll play game on forums. A pretty incredible take given that the UN has had a huge hand in Netenyahu's arrest warrant, and now they suddenly start getting slaughtered by Israel. Do you respect the right of the UN to defend itself from these attacks? It appears Hezbollah has also started to slaughter the UN. Show nested quote +ight Austrian members of the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) stationed in southern Lebanon have sustained minor injuries after being hit by a rocket likely fired by Hezbollah, UNIFIL said Tuesday.
“This afternoon a rocket hit UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura, setting a vehicle workshop on fire. Peacekeepers were not in bunkers at the time,” the UN force said in a series of posts on its official X account.
According to Austrian defense ministry spokesperson Michael Bauer, the eight injured soldiers are all Austrian nationals and members of a maintenance platoon stationed in Lebanon.
The peacekeepers only sustained “minor injuries” with none of them “seriously injured,” UNIFIL said.
The peacekeeping force has opened an investigation into the incident which it said saw a rocket “fired from north of UNIFIL’s headquarters, likely by Hizbullah or an affiliated group.”
The attack was condemned in “the strongest possible terms” by Austrian defense minister Klaudia Tanner, who urged “all sides to immediately cease hostilities in the vicinity of the UN mission sites.”
This is by no means the first time that the UNIFIL headquarters have come under threat. Two UN peacekeepers were injured at the base after an Israeli tank fired toward an observation tower there on October 10, according to UNIFIL. I'm still under the impression that these soldiers are at risk without accomplishing their goal. They either need the arms and orders to complete their mission or they should be moved out until the war is no longer hot.
That's a false equivalence merged with a hyperbole.
It's most likely a misguided rocket as hezbollah interest is finul staying there, rockets being imprecise is something which sadly happens a lot.
Meanwhile Israeli's intention has never been clearer, while their politicians are constantly attacking un and the mission itself, their army have stormed a finul camp with a tank, destroyed an observation tower with a bulldozer, shot at camera and directly shot at indonesian soldiers.
Oh and the unwar is no forbidden in the territory under israeli's control.
This soldiers mission is extremely important. I remember a french general who was there during the balkan's war, François lecointre and this dude was explained there were here as testimonies, moreover he had the conviction he would have been worse as they hadn't been there. It's the same here, israel imposes a blackout in gaza, they want to do the same in lebanon.
Well, their journalist are still proudly destroying lebanese house in front of their own camera but apparently, that's the norm there.
Been a while since a western society has been this depraved
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Northern Ireland25663 Posts
Oh so when it’s Hezbollah hits folks it’s totally not their bad or intent? Come on
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Intentions are impossible to know, and our impressions on them are most certainly coloured by our own assumptions and biases.
The question is, are these people accomplishing enough of their goal to keep them in an active warzone. It clear and inarguable that resolution 1701 was a complete failure. Hezbollah returned to their strongholds the day after Israel left and have done nothing to keel the them or Israel from the line south of the Litani River. They did not attempt or had no success in disarming armed groups (Hezbollah) and returning full control to the Lebanon government and Lebanese army.
So the remaining question is, is the risk worth their humanitarian impact. It appears that UNFIL forces have done some good but none of what I have read would be happening right now. Unless someone has what their current responsibilities are it appears it is to stay alive, and out of the conflict (not make a judgement to whether they should do more). And if that is the case just get them out.
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Northern Ireland25663 Posts
On October 30 2024 05:20 Billyboy wrote:
Intentions are impossible to know, and our impressions on them are most certainly coloured by our own assumptions and biases.
The question is, are these people accomplishing enough of their goal to keep them in an active warzone. It clear and inarguable that resolution 1701 was a complete failure. Hezbollah returned to their strongholds the day after Israel left and have done nothing to keel the them or Israel from the line south of the Litani River. They did not attempt or had no success in disarming armed groups (Hezbollah) and returning full control to the Lebanon government and Lebanese army.
So the remaining question is, is the risk worth their humanitarian impact. It appears that UNFIL forces have done some good but none of what I have read would be happening right now. Unless someone has what their current responsibilities are it appears it is to stay alive, and out of the conflict (not make a judgement to whether they should do more). And if that is the case just get them out.
They were never intended to disarm the likes of Hezbollah, they were only there to observe if they had disarmed, amongst other things.
As Hezbollah didn’t do that, hence they remained.
Personally I think they should remain, if nothing else there aren’t many 3rd party observers with any clout who can catalogue this conflict and give testimony.
I don’t think it’ll end well to give either Hezbollah or Israel carte blanche to conduct this conflict
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On October 30 2024 05:32 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 05:20 Billyboy wrote:
Intentions are impossible to know, and our impressions on them are most certainly coloured by our own assumptions and biases.
The question is, are these people accomplishing enough of their goal to keep them in an active warzone. It clear and inarguable that resolution 1701 was a complete failure. Hezbollah returned to their strongholds the day after Israel left and have done nothing to keel the them or Israel from the line south of the Litani River. They did not attempt or had no success in disarming armed groups (Hezbollah) and returning full control to the Lebanon government and Lebanese army.
So the remaining question is, is the risk worth their humanitarian impact. It appears that UNFIL forces have done some good but none of what I have read would be happening right now. Unless someone has what their current responsibilities are it appears it is to stay alive, and out of the conflict (not make a judgement to whether they should do more). And if that is the case just get them out. They were never intended to disarm the likes of Hezbollah, they were only there to observe if they had disarmed, amongst other things. As Hezbollah didn’t do that, hence they remained. Personally I think they should remain, if nothing else there aren’t many 3rd party observers with any clout who can catalogue this conflict and give testimony. I don’t think it’ll end well to give either Hezbollah or Israel carte blanche to conduct this conflict
Then it was doomed from the start because Hezbollah was never going to disarm and make Lebanon back into a sovereign nation out of the goodness of their hearts. I presumed they had some sort of mandate to "Disarm all armed groups in Lebanon" and "no foreign forces in Lebanon without conent of its government" And " No armed forces other than UNIFIL and Lebanese (implying no Hezbollah and Israeli forces) south of the Litani River."
3rd party observers have some value, but if they say one thing one side will call them biased and same in the other direction. I do not think enough people believe them to unbiased to have it be useful. I'm also not sure how much latitude they have to leave their bases to do much observing.
End of the day there is too much we don't know to make some absolute judgement. But I think we can add UN resolution 1701 to the long list of ways the UN has messed this part of the world up WAY more than helped it.
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In what way is having UN observers there harmful to, uh, anyone at all?
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On October 30 2024 05:47 Salazarz wrote:
In what way is having UN observers there harmful to, uh, anyone at all?
The discussion begun with the 7 being injured by a rocket. And previously 4, I think, were injured by the IDF. We are talking about the observers being harmed.
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On October 30 2024 05:54 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 05:47 Salazarz wrote:
In what way is having UN observers there harmful to, uh, anyone at all? The discussion begun with the 7 being injured by a rocket. And previously 4, I think, were injured by the IDF. We are talking about the observers being harmed.
Maybe IDF could simply, I don't know, not shoot at them?
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Weren't they there specifically to demilitarize the zone south of the Litani river? That's what I've heard. It looks more to me like they protect hizbollah's military infrastructure by body blocking Israel.
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On October 30 2024 16:54 Elroi wrote:
Weren't they there specifically to demilitarize the zone south of the Litani river? That's what I've heard. It looks more to me like they protect hizbollah's military infrastructure by body blocking Israel.
Interesting conspiracy theor-- I mean plot by Western governments, tell us more about it.
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On October 30 2024 11:23 Salazarz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 05:54 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2024 05:47 Salazarz wrote:
In what way is having UN observers there harmful to, uh, anyone at all? The discussion begun with the 7 being injured by a rocket. And previously 4, I think, were injured by the IDF. We are talking about the observers being harmed. Maybe IDF could simply, I don't know, not shoot at them?
That would stop a third of them.
On October 30 2024 21:02 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 16:54 Elroi wrote:
Weren't they there specifically to demilitarize the zone south of the Litani river? That's what I've heard. It looks more to me like they protect hizbollah's military infrastructure by body blocking Israel. Interesting conspiracy theor-- I mean plot by Western governments, tell us more about it.
He wrote it as an opinion, see the bolded words.
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On October 30 2024 21:15 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 11:23 Salazarz wrote:On October 30 2024 05:54 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2024 05:47 Salazarz wrote:
In what way is having UN observers there harmful to, uh, anyone at all? The discussion begun with the 7 being injured by a rocket. And previously 4, I think, were injured by the IDF. We are talking about the observers being harmed. Maybe IDF could simply, I don't know, not shoot at them? That would stop a third of them. Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 21:02 Magic Powers wrote:On October 30 2024 16:54 Elroi wrote:
Weren't they there specifically to demilitarize the zone south of the Litani river? That's what I've heard. It looks more to me like they protect hizbollah's military infrastructure by body blocking Israel. Interesting conspiracy theor-- I mean plot by Western governments, tell us more about it. He wrote it as an opinion, see the bolded words.
Why does it matter whether he presented it as a fact or an opinion? Do you think there is a relevant difference between "the earth is flat" and "I think the earth is flat"? And should people voicing the latter not be questioned?
You pick remarkable hills to die on.
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On October 30 2024 22:46 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 21:15 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2024 11:23 Salazarz wrote:On October 30 2024 05:54 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2024 05:47 Salazarz wrote:
In what way is having UN observers there harmful to, uh, anyone at all? The discussion begun with the 7 being injured by a rocket. And previously 4, I think, were injured by the IDF. We are talking about the observers being harmed. Maybe IDF could simply, I don't know, not shoot at them? That would stop a third of them. On October 30 2024 21:02 Magic Powers wrote:On October 30 2024 16:54 Elroi wrote:
Weren't they there specifically to demilitarize the zone south of the Litani river? That's what I've heard. It looks more to me like they protect hizbollah's military infrastructure by body blocking Israel. Interesting conspiracy theor-- I mean plot by Western governments, tell us more about it. He wrote it as an opinion, see the bolded words. Why does it matter whether he presented it as a fact or an opinion? Do you think there is a relevant difference between "the earth is flat" and "I think the earth is flat"? And should people voicing the latter not be questioned? You pick remarkable hills to die on.
You may want to look up hill to die on, because you are using it wrong.
There is an obvious difference, one believes it to be fact, the other says it is his opinion. At no point did I say opinions should not be questioned. But there is clearly a different way of doing it in the different situations.
I also think the shit one liners need to go away, but I'm alone on that one.
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On October 30 2024 23:27 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2024 22:46 Acrofales wrote:On October 30 2024 21:15 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2024 11:23 Salazarz wrote:On October 30 2024 05:54 Billyboy wrote:On October 30 2024 05:47 Salazarz wrote:
In what way is having UN observers there harmful to, uh, anyone at all? The discussion begun with the 7 being injured by a rocket. And previously 4, I think, were injured by the IDF. We are talking about the observers being harmed. Maybe IDF could simply, I don't know, not shoot at them? That would stop a third of them. On October 30 2024 21:02 Magic Powers wrote:On October 30 2024 16:54 Elroi wrote:
Weren't they there specifically to demilitarize the zone south of the Litani river? That's what I've heard. It looks more to me like they protect hizbollah's military infrastructure by body blocking Israel. Interesting conspiracy theor-- I mean plot by Western governments, tell us more about it. He wrote it as an opinion, see the bolded words. Why does it matter whether he presented it as a fact or an opinion? Do you think there is a relevant difference between "the earth is flat" and "I think the earth is flat"? And should people voicing the latter not be questioned? You pick remarkable hills to die on. You may want to look up hill to die on, because you are using it wrong. There is an obvious difference, one believes it to be fact, the other says it is his opinion. At no point did I say opinions should not be questioned. But there is clearly a different way of doing it in the different situations. I also think the shit one liners need to go away, but I'm alone on that one.
MP's response to Elroi doesn't contain the notion that Elroi thinks it's fact and not opinion.
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