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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:11 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Why not call Florida, Ohio and Texas for Trump on NYT? Apparently in Ohio, a lot of urban areas aren’t done counting. For FL or TX it’s waiting on mail in ballot counts. | ||
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Trainrunnef
United States601 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12583 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10570 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:11 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Why not call Florida, Ohio and Texas for Trump on NYT? Not sure tbh. Florida has been confirmed for Trump for the past hour at this point. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10570 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:14 Nebuchad wrote: Why is everybody acting like Biden is losing PA when the stats for the early voting had about 1m more democrats than republicans, I'm losing my mind on this do I have unreliable data? Yeah idk what people are saying. I'm still unsure on the north states. Still waiting on those Arizona updates. | ||
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IyMoon
United States1249 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:11 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Why not call Florida, Ohio and Texas for Trump on NYT? I think Ohio has a chance of still flipping? Texas and FL need to be called though | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4456 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:14 Trainrunnef wrote: WI looks like it will go for trump. Most large counties have reported a vast majority. If i had to guess I'd say the African-American voter turnout is lower than 16', judging by Trump more than doubling his vote % in the bronx, maybe black Trump voters more energised..Biden needs far better results in Milwaukee than what he's getting right now. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:14 Nebuchad wrote: Why is everybody acting like Biden is losing PA when the stats for the early voting had about 1m more democrats than republicans, I'm losing my mind on this do I have unreliable data? I think a lot of people aren't informed that because of how they count early votes PA is a blue shift state and not a red shift state like FL/NC, and that they've gone on record saying they won't have everything counted until Friday (and, indeed, several counties said they aren't going to bother tabulating early votes until tomorrow). | ||
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:14 Trainrunnef wrote: WI looks like it will go for trump. Most large counties have reported a vast majority. Not true. Most of Wisconsin's urban areas have yet to report a significant number of votes. | ||
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Batmankills
145 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States24394 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:14 Nebuchad wrote: Why is everybody acting like Biden is losing PA when the stats for the early voting had about 1m more democrats than republicans, I'm losing my mind on this do I have unreliable data? Trump is overperforming in the rural areas where he built up his lead in 2016 with 95%+ reporting in those rural areas. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9331 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:12 Nevuk wrote: Btw a couple maps from 538 : it's pretty Biden favored if he holds onto AZ and IA even if he loses PA. Not allocated NC or GA since they have mail in ballots still (and a ton are still outstanding in those states). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#FL:1,OH:1,TX:1,AZ:0,NH:0,IA:0,PA:1 But if he loses IA it turns into something of a nightmare scenario where a tie is extremely likely : 49 Biden-30 Trump - 21 (tie) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#FL:1,OH:1,TX:1,AZ:0,NH:0,PA:1 It is also hard not to wonder if Dejoy's fucking with the USPS hasn't affected ballots more than expected. Is this saying Biden has a >99 in 100 chance to win Wisconsin? He's currently 4% behind with 60% of expected votes in. | ||
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starkiller123
United States4030 Posts
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KwarK
United States44389 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:13 Monochromatic wrote: My original claim is that Trump grew the stock market on pace with China's, despite lower GDP growth, and that we have had an amazing economy. An economy is a multifaceted thing, and having the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years is in my mind at least, quite the accomplishment. I suppose if you argue semantics, that isn't recordbreaking though. I don't believe I'm moving goalposts, I believe you're misrepresenting what I have said. I think we can agree it's not fair to look at the market during a pandemic year, which has global consequences and knock-on effects throughout the stock market, but he grew the stock market an average of 14% YoY his first three years. On the topics of records, he also extended the bull market to be the longest in US history - which is why his 14% performance is fantastic. The market should have had a downturn - in fact the economy broke another record - the longest time without a recession in US History (which ended due to the pandemic). You claimed he grew the economy on par with China, then changed that to growing the SP500 valuation (on par with China? What would that even mean? It's not clear as you clearly intended this to be a GDP vs GDP comparison until I explained to you that Trump did not deliver meaningful growth in GDP) You claimed it was recordbreaking growth when it was below both Obama and Bill Clinton growth. It broke no records. You claimed it was caused by the tax cuts when there were 8 solid years of growth before the tax cuts and a recession 15 months after the tax cuts took effect. At a certain point here you have to concede that some of these talking points simply don't hold up to the evidence. I'm not surprised that you hold these beliefs, they're claims that have been repeated over and over by Trump and his mouthpieces and you've clearly incorporated them into your worldview to an extent. But at a certain point you need to start letting evidence in. You've been lied to. The GDP growth that was promised in 2016 never happened. The tax cuts didn't start the stock market boom. The stock market boom wasn't even much of a boom. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24394 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:18 starkiller123 wrote: I'm just getting stressed out following this lol, time to lose myself in some games for a couple hours make it single player or you'll probably get sucked back in lol | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10570 Posts
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Shingi11
290 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:14 Nebuchad wrote: Why is everybody acting like Biden is losing PA when the stats for the early voting had about 1m more democrats than republicans, I'm losing my mind on this do I have unreliable data? I think that a lot of people are having huge downers cause they wanted a biden 350 win. PA is going to have a lot of the vote still out for the next couple of days | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12583 Posts
On November 04 2020 13:17 GreenHorizons wrote: Trump is overperforming in the rural areas where he built up his lead in 2016 with 95%+ reporting in those rural areas. Yeah but if many more democrats are voting by mail and those votes are not counted yet obviously Trump is going to be overperforming. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
As you plan your sleep schedule for the rest of the week: We should have near-complete unofficial results from Wisconsin early tomorrow morning, as Milwaukee is expected to finish counting around 6 a.m. Eastern. Michigan originally said it would take until Friday to count all of its votes, but officials have revised that estimate to say they’ll be done tomorrow as well. Finally, Pennsylvania results probably won’t be known until Friday. With 82 percent of the expected vote reporting in Ohio, we can see that an early lead for Democrats in the absentee ballots that were counted first has now turned into a Republican lead as Election Day votes were reported, as we expected. But as Nate said earlier, urban counties are somewhat underreported relative to the rest of the state, so that Election Day vote could shift again — and there are likely some more absentee ballots outstanding as well. Also note that we're going to be getting large chunks of democrat/republican votes counted at once, since the vote allocation was so distinctly different (mail in vs in person). Can't really compare it to prior years where 60% of the vote was a reasonable expectation to be somewhat random. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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