2020 US Election - Page 52

GreenHorizons

United States24394 Posts

November 04 2020 03:57 GMT

#1021

On November 04 2020 12:55 Zambrah wrote:
Democrats should disband their party in shame if they can’t manage to beat Donald Trump

Seriously. At minimum the people that led the last 8 years have to get out of the damn way and let progressives lose instead (assuming they'll lose like centrists insist).

polgas

Canada1791 Posts

November 04 2020 03:57 GMT

#1022

This doesn't look good for Biden. Even with Arizona going blue.

Nebuchad

Switzerland12583 Posts

November 04 2020 03:57 GMT

#1023

On November 04 2020 12:55 Zambrah wrote:
Democrats should disband their party in shame if they can’t manage to beat Donald Trump

Democrats should disband their party in shame regardless

FlaShFTW

United States10570 Posts

November 04 2020 03:58 GMT

#1024

I guess some small thing to be happy about to the Biden fans in here: a lot of the PA districts that are mostly finished reporting, Biden has improved by a little bit in quite a few of those counties. And especially with some of these larger blue cities voting more for Biden than in 2016, it could be the push he needs to win PA.

GoTuNk!

Chile4591 Posts

November 04 2020 03:58 GMT

#1025

On November 04 2020 12:54 Sent. wrote:
Did anyone bother to compare the results from that joeisdone website and the results reported by legit sources?

On Florida he said Trump was gonna 1.16% better than 2016, until it stopped reporting for being unnecesary. So... lol

Mohdoo

United States15743 Posts

November 04 2020 03:58 GMT

#1026

On November 04 2020 12:54 FlaShFTW wrote:

Show nested quote +

Canadian immigration page is gonna crash again this year.

Luckily I’m a citizen, so moving to Ottawa is fairly straight forward for me. My wife is 100% unwilling to live in the USA at this point

GreenHorizons

United States24394 Posts

November 04 2020 03:58 GMT

#1027

On November 04 2020 12:57 Nebuchad wrote:

Show nested quote +

Democrats should disband their party in shame regardless

I mean yeah. Not just because of how close this election is either.

KwarK

United States44389 Posts

November 04 2020 03:59 GMT

#1028

On November 04 2020 12:56 Monochromatic wrote:

Show nested quote +

On November 04 2020 12:52 KwarK wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:48 Monochromatic wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:45 KwarK wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:42 Monochromatic wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:37 KwarK wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:35 Monochromatic wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:32 KwarK wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:28 Monochromatic wrote:

On November 04 2020 12:20 KwarK wrote:
[quote]
I think you're confused.

Let's say you work on a farm. In year 1 the farm produces 100 units of grain. In year 2 the farm produces 102 grain. That's 2% growth in the output of the farm. What you're trying to argue is that how much grain the farm produces isn't what matters, what actually matters is how much a speculator would pay to buy the farm. But there's two issues with that. Firstly, you don't own the farm, you just work there, it doesn't make any difference to you how much the speculator thinks it's worth on a given day. And secondly, the only thing that matters at the farm is how much food it produces. An idea of how much it's worth will go up and down daily but will never feed a single person.

If the farm is publicly traded, I can own it. With the rise of indexing the average person will probably own it in their 401k.

Second, valuation is not purely speculation. Oftentimes there's competitive advantages that push a company above their peers. It's also a proxy to sentiment - the average investor agrees the USA is doing very, very well right now.

You can own it, but the vast majority of Americans own a tiny fraction of US equities.

But owning it doesn't change how much grain it produces. The rest is just bullshit. If you lower the cost of borrowing by pumping liquidity into the market, as the Fed has done, it triggers stock buybacks and the artificial inflation of equities. You've not actually created anything, you've just pumped up the market by printing cash.

That's why real GDP growth is what Trump promised to deliver and why bullshit market valuations based on cheap credit isn't an acceptable substitute for it.

I've been struggling with valuations since '08. You don't need to tell me the damage QE has done to the rational stock market. However, at the end of the day, it's something we have to live with, and take advantage of. The stock market going up has put money in my, as well as millions of other Americans, pocket.

But it's not what you originally claimed. You claimed Trump delivered more GDP. Now you're saying that due to QE Trump has delivered higher valuations on the same GDP. Do you see why that's not proof of your original claim?

No. I'm saying that despite lower GDP, we've managed to match China's market growth, and that the economy has been amazing - two separate thoughts. A large part of this (both the valuations and the economy) was the corporate tax cut, which was 100% Trump. US unemployment hit the lowest level for 50 years. Removing regulations has also supercharged the economy. To your point about fake buybacks and low rates, that's the QE. To the massive growth in SMEs, I award that to Trump's policies.

If the growth was due to the tax cut then why did it start 8 years before the tax cut?

That's a little silly. Sure, he inherited a growing economy. His policies turned it into a record-breaking one.

But he didn't. Look at the SP500 growth by year from 2009 to 2020. The numbers don't support your claim.

2009 - 23%
2010 - 13%
2011 - 0%
2012 - 13%
2013 - 30%
2014 - 11%
2015 - (1%)
2016 - 10%
2017 (Trump's first year) - 19%
2018 - (6%)
2019 (year in which the tax cuts took effect, funded by huge deficit spending) 29%
2020 4%

Trump performed less well, on average, than Obama.

Which record do you think Trump broke on growth in valuations? He's in the bottom half of Presidents. He constantly tweets about it but the numbers simply don't support any conclusion but that the man is a liar.
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

17 was great, 18 ended on a major, but very short downturn, 19 was good, and 2020 is a pandemic. I think that's a quite good track record.

Sorry, is the claim now that Trump has performed at a solid B average? Two posts ago it was that it was recordbreaking. He's 3rd out of the last 4 presidents in growth in market valuations and the guy he beat literally presided over the collapse of global capitalism.

You keep shifting the goalposts. You started with Trump growing the economy at an unprecedented pace. You then changed that to Trump growing the valuation of major companies at an unprecedented pace while keeping the economy growing slowly. Now you're arguing that Trump grew the valuation of major companies at a below average rate but that you'd still give him a passing grade. Please argue your original claim, that Trump delivered record breaking growth.

TheYango

United States47024 Posts

November 04 2020 03:59 GMT

#1029

I'm actually more interested in who the Republicans run in 2024. Most of the known Democratic prospects are...unexciting.

iPlaY.NettleS

Australia4456 Posts

November 04 2020 03:59 GMT

#1030

Edison exit poll showing Trump with lower support among White men but higher support with every other demographic.

Batmankills

145 Posts

November 04 2020 03:59 GMT

#1031

I said few days ago and it still stands today that Trump has way better ground game than Biden. All the TV advertisements dont matter if you don't knock on doors and bring people to vote. Also, it's hilarious that PA dems were asking for people to sign up for canvassing 2 days before the election.

Shingi11

290 Posts

November 04 2020 03:59 GMT

#1032

Biden can still win without PA, if it is the only thing to fall it and he hold the other two where he was doing much better we can end up 270 biden with a 268 trump

GreenHorizons

United States24394 Posts

November 04 2020 04:00 GMT

#1033

On November 04 2020 12:59 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Edison exit poll showing Trump with lower support among White men but higher support with every other demographic.

Someone get Joe Biden a Mission Accomplished banner asap

Nebuchad

Switzerland12583 Posts

November 04 2020 04:00 GMT

#1034

On November 04 2020 12:58 FlaShFTW wrote:
I guess some small thing to be happy about to the Biden fans in here: a lot of the PA districts that are mostly finished reporting, Biden has improved by a little bit in quite a few of those counties. And especially with some of these larger blue cities voting more for Biden than in 2016, it could be the push he needs to win PA.

Were the numbers I saw for early ballots in PA unreliable? There was like 1M more democratic party ballots than there were republican ballots.

darthfoley

United States8004 Posts

November 04 2020 04:00 GMT

#1035

On November 04 2020 12:55 Husyelt wrote:

Show nested quote +

Pete is the future. Legit worst decision to force him to drop out to save Biden against Berndog

Pete was the future in 1989

Nebuchad

Switzerland12583 Posts

November 04 2020 04:01 GMT

#1036

On November 04 2020 12:59 TheYango wrote:
I'm actually more interested in who the Republicans run in 2024. Most of the known Democratic prospects are...unexciting.

There's like a 50% chance that they run Trump imo

Mohdoo

United States15743 Posts

November 04 2020 04:01 GMT

#1037

On November 04 2020 12:59 Shingi11 wrote:
Biden can still win without PA, if it is the only thing to fall it and he hold the other two where he was doing much better we can end up 270 biden with a 268 trump

What reason do we have to think the Midwest pans out if Pennsylvania goes red? We can only assume the Midwest will follow. Though I admit Arizona is a beacon of hope for now

iPlaY.NettleS

Australia4456 Posts

November 04 2020 04:01 GMT

#1038

On November 04 2020 12:59 Batmankills wrote:
I said few days ago and it still stands today that Trump has way better ground game than Biden. All the TV advertisements dont matter if you don't knock on doors and bring people to vote. Also, it's hilarious that PA dems were asking for people to sign up for canvassing 2 days before the election.

They had stopped their doorknock campaign due to COVID, clearly they were panicking in the last week.