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On November 04 2020 10:21 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:19 Zambrah wrote:On November 04 2020 10:15 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 04 2020 10:14 Zambrah wrote:
If Biden loses I CANNOT wait to hear Democrats blame Bernie fucking Sanders.
And I will meme the FUCK out of eLeCtAbLe at them for the rest of eternity. nah as usual it will be because of young people Anything but the milquetoast centrists, it's never their crappy candidates fault after all, lol. I still favor Biden for the win but Democrat hubris is such a real thing. It's either "centrism is a winner" or "Damn purists and kids cost us the election". "We didn't champion the absurdly popular policy that serves people's material needs" is not a level of self-reflection the party seems capable of.
I truly hope Biden barely scrapes through a win, I want the least possible mandate for this brand of Republican-lite.
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On November 04 2020 10:05 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:03 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 04 2020 10:03 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Trump up 140,000 in VA 58-40.1% but already called for Biden, can't agree with that. It's Virginia. If Trump ends up winning Virginia something is massively wrong Yet Indiana hasn't been called for Trump with the same % in and Trump up 37.5%?
Alabama is called for Trump, with 1% reporting, and Biden leading 63 to 37  (3k votes total lol)
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On November 04 2020 10:19 FlaShFTW wrote:
Texas Forth Worth with 80% reporting: Dead even, only separated by 700 votes. 2016: Trump won by 8 points. Texas is getting juicy.
My gf voted there in Tarrant county, and she was expecting it to lean heavily red. Weird to see it so close.
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United States10569 Posts
NYT has Trump favored in NC by a sliver. I disagree. The counties are moving more blue right now.
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On November 04 2020 10:18 Stratos_speAr wrote:
EDIT: I think people are taking FL as too much of an indicator of the entire nation. I think we need to see how Ohio, Georgia, and NC go before making real predictions (i.e. close race vs. comfortable).
Florida looks a lot less like an outlier and a lot more like a trend.
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From everything I'm reading, Biden is crushing it in Ohio and Texas.
These should be very good signs.
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Unimportant thought: I think that Biden is likely to win the popular vote by even more than Clinton did (regardless of the electoral college outcome).
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True Biden is looking very good in Ohio but these early votes vs election day votes are really screwing with my calls right now.Gonna have to wait for more % in.
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On November 04 2020 10:28 Stratos_speAr wrote:
From everything I'm reading, Biden is crushing it in Ohio and Texas.
These should be very good signs.
don't forget to check if they tally early votes first or election day voting... Surprises could be had...
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As a statistics teacher, the number of people who are extrapolating from, like, 5% of votes in random places is almost as excruciating to me as a potential second term for Donald Trump. Damn.
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United States10569 Posts
On November 04 2020 10:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
As a statistics teacher, the number of people who are extrapolating from, like, 5% of votes in random places is almost as excruciating to me as a potential second term for Donald Trump. Damn.
Hey I'm only reporting on places with at leat 50% reporting.
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On November 04 2020 10:30 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:28 Stratos_speAr wrote:
From everything I'm reading, Biden is crushing it in Ohio and Texas.
These should be very good signs. don't forget to check if they tally early votes first or election day voting... Surprises could be had...
I'm mostly thinking about the county-level trends, with many counties almost fully reporting and showing heavy swings towards Biden when compared to 2016.
EDIT: NYT Needle moving NC more and more towards Trump.
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On November 04 2020 10:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
As a statistics teacher, the number of people who are extrapolating from, like, 5% of votes in random places is almost as excruciating to me as a potential second term for Donald Trump. Damn.
I suppose it'd be nice if we could imagine 5% as a representative sample and work from that. Sadly counting official ballots is anything but.
Looking at individual precincts vs 2016 has some merit, noisy though it may be.
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IMO Trump has Texas, 80% or more votes counted in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio and Trumps down by 250,000 with statewide 45% of votes reporting.
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United States10569 Posts
On November 04 2020 10:32 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:30 Nouar wrote:On November 04 2020 10:28 Stratos_speAr wrote:
From everything I'm reading, Biden is crushing it in Ohio and Texas.
These should be very good signs. don't forget to check if they tally early votes first or election day voting... Surprises could be had... I'm mostly thinking about the county-level trends, with many counties almost fully reporting and showing heavy swings towards Biden when compared to 2016. EDIT: NYT Needle moving NC more and more towards Trump.
I don't agree with the NYT needle right now. Biden has made a huge amount of progress in a lot of counties compared ot Clinton and he's somehow not favored? Yeah, no I don't buy it.
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On November 04 2020 10:29 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Unimportant thought: I think that Biden is likely to win the popular vote by even more than Clinton did (regardless of the electoral college outcome).
I wouldn't call it unimportant. Definitely should ring some alarm bells if winning potentially significantly more votes doesn't lead to winning the election.
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On November 04 2020 10:31 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
As a statistics teacher, the number of people who are extrapolating from, like, 5% of votes in random places is almost as excruciating to me as a potential second term for Donald Trump. Damn. Hey I'm only reporting on places with at leat 50% reporting.
I'm thankful for that I have so many friends reading too far into things like "Candidate X is wrecking Candidate Y, even though only 1% of the vote is in".
On November 04 2020 10:32 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 10:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
As a statistics teacher, the number of people who are extrapolating from, like, 5% of votes in random places is almost as excruciating to me as a potential second term for Donald Trump. Damn. I suppose it'd be nice if we could imagine 5% as a representative sample and work from that. Sadly counting official ballots is anything but.
Agreed.
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Biden's TX lead has narrowed to 1.5 with 47% reported
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Biden's lead continues to shrink in Texas.
Anyone looking at the county-level data there right now and notice any trends or predictions?
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On November 04 2020 10:33 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
IMO Trump has Texas, 80% or more votes counted in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio and Trumps down by 250,000 with statewide 45% of votes reporting.
If Biden can't win Florida then all the solid-Republican states like Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are very iffy. Don't expect big wins there.
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EPT
