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On October 22 2021 00:19 teeel141 wrote:Growth of AY.4.2 subvariant covid19.sanger.ac.uk Also maybe AY.4 is the reason cases never really fell that much in UK after initial delta wave? I donno, read about that variant on the dutch news today aswell and here its apparently been going around for about 10 weeks but only at 0.1-0.2% of infections and not really rising so /shrug.
I'd look towards differences in measures taken to contain and prevent spread then even more infectious variants
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On October 22 2021 00:19 teeel141 wrote:Growth of AY.4.2 subvariant covid19.sanger.ac.uk Also maybe AY.4 is the reason cases never really fell that much in UK after initial delta wave?
The UK situation is indeed curious! They have a lot of cases, but an extremely flat curve, a fairly low amount of deaths and stable numbers of hospitalizations. My theory is that the reason is that they opened up completely at a point when there were quite a lot of cases, and the vaccine % never got that high. The long and rather flat wave... I guess it is because the vaccines did something, but it is strange! Maybe when the cases eventually go down, they will never again go up, while they do in the rest of Europe because of the inevitable explosion of nightlife.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
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Yes, UK is an interesting scientific and social experiment. Cases rising, but hospitalisation hasn't hit critical point (largely due to good public healthcare providing for high capacity).
Not sure if this how the new norm will look like, and whether lesser resourceful countries are able to replicate such norm.
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On October 22 2021 01:39 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2021 00:19 teeel141 wrote:Growth of AY.4.2 subvariant covid19.sanger.ac.uk Also maybe AY.4 is the reason cases never really fell that much in UK after initial delta wave? The UK situation is indeed curious! They have a lot of cases, but an extremely flat curve, a fairly low amount of deaths and stable numbers of hospitalizations. My theory is that the reason is that they opened up completely at a point when there were quite a lot of cases, and the vaccine % never got that high. The long and rather flat wave... I guess it is because the vaccines did something, but it is strange! Maybe when the cases eventually go down, they will never again go up, while they do in the rest of Europe because of the inevitable explosion of nightlife. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Ireland is also having a new wave while AY.4 is increasing even though theyre 75% fully vaccinated. Lithuania has 90% AY.4 and are number 4 worldwide in cases despite 59% vaccinated.
But maybe theres some country that can disprove this i don't know.
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On October 22 2021 01:39 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2021 00:19 teeel141 wrote:Growth of AY.4.2 subvariant covid19.sanger.ac.uk Also maybe AY.4 is the reason cases never really fell that much in UK after initial delta wave? The UK situation is indeed curious! They have a lot of cases, but an extremely flat curve, a fairly low amount of deaths and stable numbers of hospitalizations. My theory is that the reason is that they opened up completely at a point when there were quite a lot of cases, and the vaccine % never got that high. The long and rather flat wave... I guess it is because the vaccines did something, but it is strange! Maybe when the cases eventually go down, they will never again go up, while they do in the rest of Europe because of the inevitable explosion of nightlife. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
A lot of the new cases are school aged children that rarely require hospitalization. Also 93.6% of adults in the UK have antibodies to COVID so they've already been primed to defeat COVID more easily when they get breakthrough infections or reinfections.
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Florida is faring far better than states like NY and WA with fewer than half the cases per 100,000.Interested to see what happens in those northern states as winter rolls on and those temperatures drop.
https://news.yahoo.com/desantis-critics-fall-silent-floridas-110000651.html
DeSantis's critics fall silent as Florida's COVID-19 cases drop
New infections per 100,000 residents dropped to 12 over the past week, according to the New York Times coronavirus tracker. Over the past 14 days, cases dropped by 48%.
States with far more expansive pandemic restrictions are seeing COVID-19 continue to spread at faster rates than Florida.
In New York, for example, the rate of new cases is more than double that of Florida’s at 25 per 100,000 residents over the past week.
In Washington state, the rate of new infections per 100,000 residents was at 31 during the past week.
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On October 22 2021 06:19 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Florida is faring far better than states like NY and WA with fewer than half the cases per 100,000.Interested to see what happens in those northern states as winter rolls on and those temperatures drop. https://news.yahoo.com/desantis-critics-fall-silent-floridas-110000651.htmlShow nested quote +DeSantis's critics fall silent as Florida's COVID-19 cases drop
New infections per 100,000 residents dropped to 12 over the past week, according to the New York Times coronavirus tracker. Over the past 14 days, cases dropped by 48%.
States with far more expansive pandemic restrictions are seeing COVID-19 continue to spread at faster rates than Florida.
In New York, for example, the rate of new cases is more than double that of Florida’s at 25 per 100,000 residents over the past week.
In Washington state, the rate of new infections per 100,000 residents was at 31 during the past week.
To be honest, NY and NJ are staggering to watch. They've had some of the highest infection rates and death rates for the duration of the pandemic alongside fairly solid vaccination rates (compared to most of the USA), and they're still seeing pretty bad covid rates/death rates at the current time. It's not even down to a point where you could say it's comparable to a bad flu season (~15-20 deaths a day in NY vs current ~35 from covid). It seems to just be something they're content to just let happen.
Florida did just have a pretty sizable wave of covid, and covid tends to burn very hot and very fast. Given their recent peak around 1200 cases/million/day, it's possible they've burned through a fair bit of the human firewood that's available. In comparison NY's been around 200-250 cases/million for months now. Florida front-loaded 3-4 months of NY cases into 30 days.
It'll burn through unvaccinated populations eventually, the trick is to burn slow enough that healthcare can keep up.
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Just had a chat with my buddy, he was told by his boss he can't keep working if he stays unvaccinated, or else he'd have to get tested every day out of his own pocket. So yesterday he got his first Pfizer jab. Has some side effects but says he's ok.
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On October 22 2021 21:57 Magic Powers wrote:
Just had a chat with my buddy, he was told by his boss he can't keep working if he stays unvaccinated, or else he'd have to get tested every day out of his own pocket. So yesterday he got his first Pfizer jab. Has some side effects but says he's ok.
It's 20eur in Austria also? Or you can buy your own tests and get it done cheaper?
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On October 22 2021 22:02 teeel141 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2021 21:57 Magic Powers wrote:
Just had a chat with my buddy, he was told by his boss he can't keep working if he stays unvaccinated, or else he'd have to get tested every day out of his own pocket. So yesterday he got his first Pfizer jab. Has some side effects but says he's ok. It's 20eur in Austria also? Or you can buy your own tests and get it done cheaper?
Would've been 7€ a day for him as he wouldn't have to pay the full cost. Average antigen test here is around 20-25€.
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On October 22 2021 06:54 Lmui wrote:Show nested quote +On October 22 2021 06:19 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Florida is faring far better than states like NY and WA with fewer than half the cases per 100,000.Interested to see what happens in those northern states as winter rolls on and those temperatures drop. https://news.yahoo.com/desantis-critics-fall-silent-floridas-110000651.htmlDeSantis's critics fall silent as Florida's COVID-19 cases drop
New infections per 100,000 residents dropped to 12 over the past week, according to the New York Times coronavirus tracker. Over the past 14 days, cases dropped by 48%.
States with far more expansive pandemic restrictions are seeing COVID-19 continue to spread at faster rates than Florida.
In New York, for example, the rate of new cases is more than double that of Florida’s at 25 per 100,000 residents over the past week.
In Washington state, the rate of new infections per 100,000 residents was at 31 during the past week.
To be honest, NY and NJ are staggering to watch. They've had some of the highest infection rates and death rates for the duration of the pandemic alongside fairly solid vaccination rates (compared to most of the USA), and they're still seeing pretty bad covid rates/death rates at the current time. It's not even down to a point where you could say it's comparable to a bad flu season (~15-20 deaths a day in NY vs current ~35 from covid). It seems to just be something they're content to just let happen. Florida did just have a pretty sizable wave of covid, and covid tends to burn very hot and very fast. Given their recent peak around 1200 cases/million/day, it's possible they've burned through a fair bit of the human firewood that's available. In comparison NY's been around 200-250 cases/million for months now. Florida front-loaded 3-4 months of NY cases into 30 days. It'll burn through unvaccinated populations eventually, the trick is to burn slow enough that healthcare can keep up.
In the UK, that does not seem to be the case. It is hard to come to general conclusions.
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The risk factor in a post-vaccination world should depend on demographics and culture. Some places have a higher proportion of elderly and people with unhealthy diet and lifestyle. Hospitalisations and deaths will invariably be higher. Sounds cold, but it is what it is.
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On October 24 2021 21:41 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2021 13:08 RKC wrote:
The risk factor in a post-vaccination world should depend on demographics and culture. Some places have a higher proportion of elderly and people with unhealthy diet and lifestyle. Hospitalisations and deaths will invariably be higher. Sounds cold, but it is what it is. I mean that is true of most viruses and causes of dealth. It is going to be getting to a level that the hospitals are not threatened amd stressed. As upset as mamy westerners are about it, there might be on and off mask rules in peak seasons until it becomes more cultural and becomes the social norm. Or between all the vaccination and immunity from cases and we are back to how it used to be. As countries start to get into the high 90s of total population (not eligible) vaccinated we will find out.
Face mandates barely make a difference. One of the most popular places to require them is restaurants, but I have never seen a study about that situation. It will take a lot to convince me that wearing a mask wherever food and drinks are consumated is effective. If your dentist or surgeon brouht their coffee during a consultation requiring masks, they should be fired, but here we are, being obliged to mix masks and dirty cutlery like idiots.
Also, if If something isn't safe without a mask, it isn't safe with it either. If air can pass by, the virus can too.
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New preprint study of 620,000 U.S. Veterans shows the J&J vaccine's protection against infection went from 92% in March to 3% in August. Moderna was still at 64% and Pfizer still at 50%. If you got the J&J vaccine >2 months ago it would be wise to try to get a booster of the pfizer or moderna immediately.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1
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It's funny looking at the old acrticles from Politifact and other fact checkers regarding the lab-leak theory and gain-function-research. They all have to post updates/redactions as more information comes in, e.g.
When this fact-check was first published in February 2021, PolitiFact’s sources included researchers who asserted the SARS-CoV-2 virus could not have been manipulated. That assertion is now more widely disputed.
It's crazy how many people were willing to immediately eat-up whatever narrative was told to them and go so far as to label anyone that disagreed with the narrative as racist or a conspiracy theorist.
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On October 25 2021 06:34 BlackJack wrote:It's funny looking at the old acrticles from Politifact and other fact checkers regarding the lab-leak theory and gain-function-research. They all have to post updates/redactions as more information comes in, e.g. Show nested quote +When this fact-check was first published in February 2021, PolitiFact’s sources included researchers who asserted the SARS-CoV-2 virus could not have been manipulated. That assertion is now more widely disputed. It's crazy how many people were willing to immediately eat-up whatever narrative was told to them and go so far as to label anyone that disagreed with the narrative as racist or a conspiracy theorist.
It's a shame but not at all surprising.
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Northern Ireland25474 Posts
On October 25 2021 06:34 BlackJack wrote:It's funny looking at the old acrticles from Politifact and other fact checkers regarding the lab-leak theory and gain-function-research. They all have to post updates/redactions as more information comes in, e.g. Show nested quote +When this fact-check was first published in February 2021, PolitiFact’s sources included researchers who asserted the SARS-CoV-2 virus could not have been manipulated. That assertion is now more widely disputed. It's crazy how many people were willing to immediately eat-up whatever narrative was told to them and go so far as to label anyone that disagreed with the narrative as racist or a conspiracy theorist.
It doesn’t really help when those stories have the most visible respread and traction amongst racists, conspiracy theorists and racist conspiracy theorists.
I guess there’s an understandable human desire to want to jump on things that go against that
It’s quite bloody exhausting when even fact checking orgs either let that cloud their judgement, or are unable to properly vet the validity of what researchers are telling them.
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EPT
