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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On July 30 2021 20:52 emperorchampion wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2021 19:39 BlueStar wrote:
You guys, do realize the vaccines are not free, right?
The state buys them but all the money is taken from your pockets one way or another...
If someone has more scientific links, I'd be happy to dig in. Please share.
These articles from the media were created out of the fingers of some journalists who are only there to get more clicks. It's just a read to fill your free time but can't get real intel out of it. I think a more interesting prespective is to think about it in terms of loss assessment. For example: Take the probability of getting covid given no vaccine Then multiply with probabilities of various consequences given no vaccine Then multiply with the costs associated with each consequence and integrate everything Compare that value with: The probability of getting covid given a vaccine (much lower) and the probabilities of consequences given a vaccine (much less severe) + the cost of the vaccine. I presume that you will find the cost of the vaccine is much lower than closures, loss of productivity, hospital costs, ongoing medical costs, etc.,. (If anyone has a source on this sort of detailed risk analysis I would be interested to see). That is why governments have been investing into vaccines because the math very likely says they save billions within months, not to say years from now.
I didn't say there is no value or something along these lines.
It's just that simple - it is not free as many people seem to reiterate.
There are plenty of other things that you can also include in this equation. There is no argument.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/
Washington post article about a leaked CDC document, starting on page 14 for info about delta.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/cdc-breakthrough-infections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/?_=1
Pretty much, Delta is as transmissible as a respiratory disease gets, in the realm of chickenpox, and higher than smallpox/polio and the common cold.
It's also likely to be transmissible even from infected vaccinated individuals, with marginally lower viral loads than unvaccinated.
The CDC estimate for mask protectiveness (although no mention of what type) is 40-60% on source (infected), and 20-30% on personal protectiveness.
Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential
to reduce transmission of the Delta variant
There's a couple charts in there that are good to look over, but gist of it is without masking, spread is guaranteed, and it will quickly find any unvaccinated individual.
With universal masking, you still need 60-75% vaccine coverage to see decreases in transmission (~50% in environments with high natural immunity, 35%).
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On July 30 2021 21:00 BlueStar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2021 20:52 emperorchampion wrote:On July 30 2021 19:39 BlueStar wrote:
You guys, do realize the vaccines are not free, right?
The state buys them but all the money is taken from your pockets one way or another...
If someone has more scientific links, I'd be happy to dig in. Please share.
These articles from the media were created out of the fingers of some journalists who are only there to get more clicks. It's just a read to fill your free time but can't get real intel out of it. I think a more interesting prespective is to think about it in terms of loss assessment. For example: Take the probability of getting covid given no vaccine Then multiply with probabilities of various consequences given no vaccine Then multiply with the costs associated with each consequence and integrate everything Compare that value with: The probability of getting covid given a vaccine (much lower) and the probabilities of consequences given a vaccine (much less severe) + the cost of the vaccine. I presume that you will find the cost of the vaccine is much lower than closures, loss of productivity, hospital costs, ongoing medical costs, etc.,. (If anyone has a source on this sort of detailed risk analysis I would be interested to see). That is why governments have been investing into vaccines because the math very likely says they save billions within months, not to say years from now. I didn't say there is no value or something along these lines. It's just that simple - it is not free as many people seem to reiterate. There are plenty of other things that you can also include in this equation. There is no argument.
I suppose my point is not that there is a cost to the vaccine— rather the opposite, it costs not to take the vaccine!
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On July 31 2021 01:52 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2021 01:28 Lmui wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/Washington post article about a leaked CDC document, starting on page 14 for info about delta. https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/cdc-breakthrough-infections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/?_=1Pretty much, Delta is as transmissible as a respiratory disease gets, in the realm of chickenpox, and higher than smallpox/polio and the common cold. It's also likely to be transmissible even from infected vaccinated individuals, with marginally lower viral loads than unvaccinated. The CDC estimate for mask protectiveness (although no mention of what type) is 40-60% on source (infected), and 20-30% on personal protectiveness. Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential
to reduce transmission of the Delta variant There's a couple charts in there that are good to look over, but gist of it is without masking, spread is guaranteed, and it will quickly find any unvaccinated individual. With universal masking, you still need 60-75% vaccine coverage to see decreases in transmission (~50% in environments with high natural immunity, 35%). Alberta is proving that right now as we are starting to climb now that mask rules and every other one has removed. They have even talked about stopping quarantining close contacts who are unvaccinated. We should be pretty good for a capacity standpoint but with kids heading back to school and them still not being able to it is concerning heading into fall. Maybe as the news of the 4th wave spreads we can get our vaccinations rolling faster again. There has been a big increase in the the southern states I hope we can do that by watching what's going on and not need to experience it ourselves.
Yeah... Alberta's going to demonstrate for the rest of Canada what not to do. Sorry that you live there 
The chart in particular from the report which should be scary. This is assuming Delta has a R0 of 5 (estimated R between 5-9.5), so this is the best case scenario.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/PnMJNmZ.png)
Without very high natural immunity + masks + higher vaccination rates than can be achieved right now without vaccinating kids, you can't stop it without other interventions. Masks alone can bring it down to a manageable point, but it needs to be universal.
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Extremely cool that Greg Abbott removed all Covid restrictions in the state on the same day I tested positive for Covid. Fuck him and fuck me
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On July 29 2021 00:41 Mohdoo wrote:I would like to do yet ANOTHER victory lap: https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/28/health/pfizer-third-dose-data-bn/index.htmlShow nested quote +A third dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine can "strongly" boost protection against the Delta variant -- beyond the protection afforded by the standard two doses, suggests new data released by Pfizer on Wednesday. Mohdoo was right again. Let me be clear with everyone: If you are an expert and your wife is also an expert, you are able to easily determine what public policy will be in a month and you can always tell what is true and what isn't. Let me reiterate: It is totally possible for other people to see how things are going and what is going to happen, since we have a fundamental understanding of the science involved. I was telling people to get a 3rd shot a while ago.
Oh boy this post "victory lap" 
First of all - bolded.
I know that buying my good wishes will keep you safe for 6 months after which you need to buy them again. All my friends and family are safe from corona so my research suggest 100% success rate. Now i dont have pharmaceutical company and any medical or related degree and I also dont have this:
https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/pfizer
but I can guarantee that it wont bring you any harm and that I will take responsibility if it does - that already trumps Pfizer offer.
"fundamental understanding" - you just keep doing this laps.
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On July 30 2021 21:51 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2021 19:03 BlackJack wrote:On July 30 2021 09:14 JimmiC wrote:On July 30 2021 07:57 BlackJack wrote:On July 28 2021 17:25 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:7 child patients admitted to ICU with 2,650 cases statewide.Is this because of the obesity rate in Alabama? For context UK data from actual studies showed that the risk to children under 18 of being admitted to ICU was 1 in 38,911 with a death rate of around 2 per million. https://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2021/july/ncmd-covidrisks.htmlOne preprint study*, published on the medRxiv server, found that 251 young people aged under 18 in England were admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during the first year of the pandemic (until the end of February 2021).
Looking separately at PIMS-TS*, a rare inflammatory syndrome in children caused by Covid-19, the researchers found that 309 young people were admitted to intensive care with this condition – equating to an absolute risk of one in 38,911.
A linked preprint study**, also published on the medRxiv server and looking at data for England, concluded that 25 children and young people had died as a result of Covid-19, equating to an absolute risk of death from Covid-19 of one in 481,000, or approximately two in a million.
Additionally Dr Whittaker of Imperial College London states that Delta variant has had no real impact on these figures Dr Elizabeth Whittaker (Imperial College London) said: “It is reassuring that these findings reflect our clinical experience in hospital – we see very few seriously unwell children. Although this data covers up to February 2021, this hasn’t changed recently with the Delta variant. We hope this data will be reassuring for children and young people and their families.” I'd suggest those numbers of 7 out of 2,650 child cases being in ICU either they are drastically undercounting the number of COVID cases in kids in Alabama or that kids in Alabama are more obese and unhealthy than UK kids.Likely a combination. Do you care to reiterate the point you are trying to make because it really sounds like you are comparing apples to oranges. How exactly are you concluding that 7 ICU cases in Alabama represents a much higher incidence than 309 ICU cases in England? Seems like the denominator you are using for Alabama is "active covid cases" and the denominator you are using for England is "the entire pediatric population of the entire country." There are 1MM+ children in Alabama so 7 ICU cases represents about 1 in 150,000. Because 7 out of 311 is a lot more than 1 in 38911 And it's not only in Bama at least Florida, gerogia, Missouri are also breaking child records. On top of that half of people who get hospitalized get long term consequences, serious ones. https://scitechdaily.com/half-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-develop-a-complication/amp/The authors say that complications in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are high, even in young, previously healthy individuals — with 27% of 19-29-year-olds and 37% of 30-39-year-olds experiencing a complication. They also note that acute complications are associated with reduced ability to self-care at discharge — with 13% of 19-29-year-olds and 17% of 30-39-year-olds unable to look after themselves once discharged from hospital Following hospitalization, 27% (13,309 of 50,105) of patients were less able to look after themselves than before COVID-19, and this was more common with older age, being male, and in people who received critical care. The association between having a complication and worse ability for self-care remained irrespective of age, sex, socioeconomic status, and which hospital someone received treatment in. Neurological complications were associated with the biggest impact on ability for self-care. And Texas is getting almost as scary as Florida. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.texastribune.org/2021/07/29/texas-covid-19-hospitals/amp/Overall on Thursday, Texas hospitals reported 5,662 patients hospitalized with COVID. A week earlier, COVID hospitalizations were 3,566. On July 1, it was 1,591. Upwards of 95% of those who are being hospitalized are unvaccinated, officials in Bexar, Travis and other counties say.
“Nearly every COVID patient admission is completely preventable,” said Dr. Bryan Alsip, executive vice president and chief medical officer at University Health System in San Antonio. “Staff witness this every day and it’s very, very frustrating.” What? Again - the 1 in 38,911 appears to be the absolute Qrisk of all the children in England. I don't even know what the 7 out of 311 number you are referencing is but you're clearly using 2 completely different denominators and then trying to do a side by side comparison to say one is worse than the other. Do I really have to explain whats wrong with this? 7 out of 311 is the current amount of kids in icu compared to adults. Nettles was using total and then saying it was the same. And his one quote saying it was. I was saying it was different because the current numbers in multiple states were dramatically different and I sourced them. No BJ you don't, but since you continue to be an ass I think now is the perfect time to bring up your declaration of covid being over, your constant compliments of Florida and Texas's handling, your premature by months declaration of deaths declining and your very very premature and aging extremely poorly "I told you so" post. You would hope at some point you would learn to trust doctors and data. This one is my favorite, but there is so many BlackJack was extremely wrong posts it hard to fathom how you keep showing up with your down home wisdom that you act as if it is a fact when it is just your continued to be proven wrong assumptions. Show nested quote +On May 18 2021 09:55 BlackJack wrote:The fact that you only now care about 40 preventable deaths a day even though it happens every single year says nothing about your "stomach" and everything about how you can be manipulated. I can't make my point any clearer than that, but it's really a minor detail. My main point was to come back to gloat about how my "theory" was right and the health experts were wrong to "sound warnings" for Texas's reopening You have to see it now don't you?
Yeah my prediction was so off about Texas' reopening.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/vWoXg2t.png)
When I posted that on May 18 Texas' 7 day rolling average of COVID deaths was 41. As of today the 7 day rolling average of deaths is 34. Clearly a quagmire.
Even if my prediction is wrong I still wouldn't be that embarrassed. At least not as embarrassed as I would be if I couldn't objectively look at the data Nettles posted to realize he made a blatant arithmetic error and instead just used it as more evidence to support my beliefs that delta is much more deadly for children and Alabama is hiding their COVID numbers, etc.
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Norway28675 Posts
Not commenting on Texas, but Preben Aavidsland, head doctor and professor working at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (essentially Norway's leading pandemic expert) tweeted more than a month ago something that could best be translated as 'pandemic over' - not because people are done being infected, but because everyone in the danger zone is vaccinated, it's just not all that dangerous anymore.
In Denmark, I saw that three of their leading medical professors stated that 'covid isn't dangerous anymore'. (danish source, mostly paywalled
In Norway we had about 200 deaths in april 2020, and about 500 deaths between november 2020 and may 2021, and fewer than 50 since then. The confirmed cases for those periods - about 8000 to get to the first 200. (Significantly lower test rate). Nearly 100000 confirmed cases to get the next 500 deaths. And like 25000 confirmed cases resulting in fewer than 50 deaths since then.
I've largely been supportive of most measures taken in Norway - although I thought shutting down a lot of organized sport for children was stupid. It was worth it when the alternative was more people dying. But as everyone in the danger-demographics are vaccinated and most other people are too, I don't want to shut down society just to keep people from getting sick - even if some fraction of people are going to report having problems with concentration or having mild breathing problems for some months. At this point, I have the impression that ones attitude towards this isn't necessarily informed by 'to what degree do we believe in the science or to which degree are we basically fascists who don't care if the weak perish' (which was largely the case 1 year ago), but rather, 'to what degree to we miss pre-covid society'.
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On July 30 2021 20:46 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2021 07:01 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On July 28 2021 22:50 JimmiC wrote:On July 28 2021 17:25 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:7 child patients admitted to ICU with 2,650 cases statewide.Is this because of the obesity rate in Alabama? For context UK data from actual studies showed that the risk to children under 18 of being admitted to ICU was 1 in 38,911 with a death rate of around 2 per million. https://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2021/july/ncmd-covidrisks.htmlOne preprint study*, published on the medRxiv server, found that 251 young people aged under 18 in England were admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 during the first year of the pandemic (until the end of February 2021).
Looking separately at PIMS-TS*, a rare inflammatory syndrome in children caused by Covid-19, the researchers found that 309 young people were admitted to intensive care with this condition – equating to an absolute risk of one in 38,911.
A linked preprint study**, also published on the medRxiv server and looking at data for England, concluded that 25 children and young people had died as a result of Covid-19, equating to an absolute risk of death from Covid-19 of one in 481,000, or approximately two in a million.
Additionally Dr Whittaker of Imperial College London states that Delta variant has had no real impact on these figures Dr Elizabeth Whittaker (Imperial College London) said: “It is reassuring that these findings reflect our clinical experience in hospital – we see very few seriously unwell children. Although this data covers up to February 2021, this hasn’t changed recently with the Delta variant. We hope this data will be reassuring for children and young people and their families.” I'd suggest those numbers of 7 out of 2,650 child cases being in ICU either they are drastically undercounting the number of COVID cases in kids in Alabama or that kids in Alabama are more obese and unhealthy than UK kids.Likely a combination. You do realize that your quotes both say in data up to feb 2021 which was before delta right? Saying it has not changed, when it has changed is silly. Well it's not me saying delta hasn't changed things has it? It was Dr Whittaker of Imperial College, London.Trust the experts.
What's your theory on why children are breaking records and adults are still a long says from doing so (though at these rates it might not be long in the worst hut states)?
Children are at incredibly low risk of serious side effects from COVID and with the CDC now flip-flopping on vaccinated people not needing to wear masks inside because new research showing that vaccinated people still spread COVID and vaccinated people carry the same viral load as in unvaccinated people - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9839697/Fauci-says-CDC-changed-mask-guidance-vaccinated-people-spread-Indian-Delta-variant.html - Dailymail but you just need to watch the 30 second clip of Fauci in the article stating that.So I'd say stop focusing purely on cases because even the vaxxed are causing new cases, vaxxed can be superspreaders.Possibly they'll issue a reversal of that policy when the inevitable boosters roll out? You're calling adapting to changing circumstances "flip-flopping". It's hard to take you seriously. The recommendation that vaccinated people do not need to wear a mask was based on how the Alpha variant behaved. The risk of vaccinated people spreading the virus was very small with that variant. That was back in May and before there was any evidence of the Delta variant behaving differently.
The belief in large parts of the community is that the CDC removed the requirement for masks in the vaccinated back in May to try and get more people vaccinated, yet another carrot in the carrot/stick approach.Now that they've got all the extra jabs in arms they could with that strategy it's been reversed.Whether you believe that or not, that is what many believe and that just further reduces trust in the establishment, who aren't exactly well regarded nowdays.
Liked i posted a couple of weeks ago with the bringing back of mask mandates in LA county - go read some of the reddit posts on the main coronavirus subs (which all lean left) and see how many people are pissed off at this new CDC mandate.Many won't follow it, they're over it, this is never going to end, followed the rules for 18 months but no more etc.
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Liked i posted a couple of weeks ago with the bringing back of mask mandates in LA county - go read some of the reddit posts on the main coronavirus subs (which all lean left) and see how many people are pissed off at this new CDC mandate.Many won't follow it, they're over it, this is never going to end, followed the rules for 18 months but no more etc.
As usual when it comes to your postings, i double and triple checked whether you actually have a point or are just pulling stuff out of your ass again.
Guess what.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ot7vtq/cdc_confirms_that_viral_loads_in_vaccinated/
Yeah. People are pissed off and tired. Over dumb assholes that deny the vaccine for the dumbest reasons, leading to everyone suffering.
I went through the subreddit now for half an hour, there obviously are the usual screechers and confed-flag wavers, but the vast majority in that subreddit understands why the advice changed - putting the blame squarely with idiots who think they become fucking walmart-magneto after a jab.
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On August 01 2021 12:05 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +Liked i posted a couple of weeks ago with the bringing back of mask mandates in LA county - go read some of the reddit posts on the main coronavirus subs (which all lean left) and see how many people are pissed off at this new CDC mandate.Many won't follow it, they're over it, this is never going to end, followed the rules for 18 months but no more etc.
As usual when it comes to your postings, i double and triple checked whether you actually have a point or are just pulling stuff out of your ass again. Guess what. https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ot7vtq/cdc_confirms_that_viral_loads_in_vaccinated/Yeah. People are pissed off and tired. Over dumb assholes that deny the vaccine for the dumbest reasons, leading to everyone suffering. I went through the subreddit now for half an hour, there obviously are the usual screechers and confed-flag wavers, but the vast majority in that subreddit understands why the advice changed - putting the blame squarely with idiots who think they become fucking walmart-magneto after a jab.
OK, look I spent 5 minutes going through this one from 4 days ago and got several comments out of it with high upvotes.Not sure why it’s controversial to state people are kind of tired of all this after 18 months but here you go.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/osnlc6/the_cdc_will_recommend_that_some_vaccinated/
+ Show Spoiler +
+399
austinrc1260
4d
Probably won’t change much. Nobody cares anymore it seems
+271
OldenWeddellSeal
I'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹
4d
Yeah. I've been "following the science" and obeying the previous mandates. But this seems insane.
+132
alrightfrankie
4d
two weeks to flatten the curve
until cases go down
until there's a vaccine
until there's a vaccine widely available to the vulnerable
until there's a vaccine widely available to everyone
now that every imaginable benchmark has been hit, they shoot the goalposts into the sun. This will never end if masks come back every time there's an uptick in cases. There's a time of year where respiratory illnesses always increase – it's called winter
+152
BigBossN7
I'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹
4d
⚠️ TRADE OFFER ⚠️
I receive: Vaccine
CDC receives: Go f*** yourself.
+112
Naturalsnotinit
4d
I'm going to get flack for not being like "let's fucking lock everything down! vaxxed people should wear THREE masks in their car!" but this feels stupid at this point. people who refuse to get vaxxed are the main reason this shit is spreading. those same people refused to wear the masks in the first place and are never going to get the vaccine in a million years. if we were to force mask wearing again, it would only be to protect them, and they don't care. so why are the vaccinated people the ones who have to suffer? this shit is mind-numbingly stupid at this point.
Not gonna put cringy flair but I am fully vaxxed and had covid as well.
+190
alrightfrankie
4d
Nope. I did absolutely everything for a year and a half. If universally available vaccinations aren't enough, nothing is
+53
Get_Back_To_Work_Now
4d
Hey CDC, here is some advice: Don't Bother.
Vaccinated people will say "I'm vaccinated. I did my part. I'm not responsible for protecting anti-vaxxers."
And anti-vaxxers will say "hurr durr that there government ain't telling me what to do. I ain't falling for the plandemic hoax."
+68
Blue2200x
4d
Cool, i will not wear one as I am vaccinated. CDC is free to double mask indefinitely.
Heaps more in there, that was just a small sample from 5 minutes searching.
Fact is there are increasing numbers of double vaxxed folks who are saying I’m double vaxxed, I’m going back to ‘normal’, I’m living my life, if those folks remain unvaxxed that is their problem.
The studies I have seen have shown the unvaxxed are less afraid of covid than the vaxxed.They have been given the chance to get the vax, they said no.Now we move on.This has to end.
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EPT
