|
Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.
Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On January 22 2021 21:59 RKC wrote: A few Asian countries have pulled off #2 well. Partly due the collective culture, and mental fortitude to accept the new norm (whatever it is). They don't see #2 as a temporary hindrance or a 'deal' that will bring everything back to normal like before. They may not like #2, but they can live with #2 for years or even the rest of their lives if need be. They don't have lofty aspiritations that everything will work out the end. They don't get mad if their leaders make a boo-boo. They're calm, they're patient. Live the moment. There's no day but today. That's how they make #2 work. Which counties, exactly?
China, Australia and NZ are the poster children for #1, although in very different ways.
SK, Japan and Thailand managed #2 for an impressively long time, but are now crashing into #3. Thailand might squeak through without a lockdown.
Vietnam is #1. They went hard at the start and have been very strict regionally. On the whole they seem to have used China's approach sans the terrifying security state. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-23/how-did-vietnam-get-on-top-of-coronavirus-yet-again/12683008
I guess Taiwan and Singapore? Two tiny islands are a pretty small sample size.
I agree that talking about the UK variant is inconsistent with the WHO's desperation to avoid "Wuhan virus". Once again you can thank China's focus on managing the optics rather than the outbreak at the beginning. The UK hasn't really bothered managing either.
+ Show Spoiler +Categories, for reference : On January 22 2021 19:59 Amui wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 19:37 Gorsameth wrote:On January 22 2021 19:27 warding wrote:On January 22 2021 18:40 Slydie wrote: Spain also had another day with 44k new cases (almost 0,1% of the population), and the hospitals are being strained already. The holidays are the obvious smoking gun, even though the restrictions were only slightly lifted for a short time.
I posted a week or so ago about the situation in Portugal with cases rising fast. Turns out they did not stop rising. Portugal is now the country in the world with the most confirmed cases per million (7 day rolling avg) with 1083 cases per million. Second is Andorra with 944 and then Israel at 875 and Spain at 747. UK is at 597 and US is at 566. The EU average is at 300. We now also lead in confirmed deaths, with 18.24 per million, with the UK coming a close second with 18.1. EU average is 7.36. Schools were only closed today and we've been in a 'lockdown' for a week. The government has avoided strict lockdowns because the country can't afford it. The situation is dire. Hospitals are reaching capacity and the number of ICU patients keep rising every day. Doctors are already picking those who might have bigger chances of living. Sequencing data was shared a couple of days ago and it seems the UK variant is already 20% of cases, rising from 10% a week before. Vaccines are not going to save us in the short term. The situation is horrifying and it will only get worse in the next 15-20 days. As I believe I told you a week ago, it will take 2 weeks to show the effects of a new measure on cases, ~3 weeks to see it on hospital admissions and 4 weeks for deaths. What your seeing today has little to do with what you did a week ago, but is from 2 weeks ago. It will be another week of rising cases before you see the measures of the lockdown from last week. Yeah that's the super scary part about Covid. So many people can't see a week ahead, let alone a month ahead. It's hard to get people on board with harsher measures when everything looks fine from their perspective. The science, modeling and timescale behind Covid is pretty well known at this point. If it looks like cases are rising, it is much, much better to err on the side of caution and make everybody feel like the reaction was heavy-handed than to allow another 2 weeks for insufficient measures to take effect, and then implement additional measures that don't have an impact until a month later. The virus spreads more easily as more people get infected as well because it gets harder and harder for track and trace and isolation protocols to catch everybody as numbers go up. It takes one super spreader event to cause disaster. A proper reaction from a governmental perspective is going to look like an overreaction to the average citizen. I know people like to complain about their freedoms and masks and so on, but quite frankly there have been only a few approaches in the world(albeit with different severity levels). I've ranked them in order of effectiveness. 1. Cases to near zero, aggressive quarantine/isolation protocols. People in these places can almost live their lives as normal now. 2. Cases at low, stable, non-zero number. Very, very few examples of this working globally. You need populace buy-in, and very targeted measures(pick and choose) and long term r0 of ~.9 to 0.95 to make this work, because otherwise holidays will fuck you up. Most industries have stayed open and people are still working for the most part. Limited social contact at all times. Rate of change is slow, so timing to implement or remove measures is not as critical. I don't think this will work at all with UK strain, until widespread vaccination/immunity. 3. Cycle between lockdowns, and periods of moderate openness. If you fuck up timings on measures and lockdowns, a lot of people get Covid. Industries that can't survive repeated closure due to lockdowns die. If UK strain has spread significantly, expect cycles between lockdown and heavy measures. I haven't seen anything short of full lockdown be effective against it. 4. Do nothing more than maybe mask mandate and let it burn out. A lot of people die. Not a good option, but has happened in many poor countries by necessity.
|
On January 23 2021 06:23 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 23:06 JimmiC wrote:On January 22 2021 19:21 BlackJack wrote:On January 22 2021 10:31 JimmiC wrote:On January 22 2021 10:09 BlackJack wrote: It's really pathetic to watch you try to shift the goal posts everytime you said the winter was going to get worse. Full stop. Now that the experts say the opposite you want to add some stipulations that didn't exist when you made the statement. WITHOUT MEASURES. The only reason California is not climbing is their harsh measures, they also have new variant that is more infectious so even with them it is dropping as fast as it would have before, and for all we know it might climb. This is the sentence where I acknowledge that it is going down and state that the reason is not covid burning out but rather that it is measures. Then I point out the variant is still a risk, which your article actually says. I'm really not sure if you are trolling or what is going on. Also do you forget that just hours ago you said you agreed it was because the measures? Go read your article and pull the quote where it explains the why, it is strange how you can read things and just totally ignore the parts you disagree with. Others warn that the virus could surge again for several reasons, including the sluggish vaccination campaign failing to ramp up and people relaxing the precautions they are taking. See how this suggests that it could go up if people act differently? That suggests the virus is not burning out, because if it was behavior change would not matter. Another big concern is the emergence of new variants that spread more easily.
"I think this is a really substantial threat," says Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown School of Public Health. "The experience from the U.K., Ireland and other countries that have seen this is it can very quickly reverse all of the gains and make things dramatically worse. So I am very, very worried about this."
This is the quote that the variants are still a risk. I'm sorry your article does not disagree with what you, now clearly falsely, agreed with. I don't understand why you don't realize that "Will things get better?" is a completely different question than "Why are things getting better?" JimmiC on Jan 20: Things will likely get worse over the winter Experts on Jan 21: Things will likely get better over the winter JimmiC on Jan 21: Yeah, that's because of the measures I'm not sure why you think that's relevant and why you can't just admit that you were wrong. Any measures that are in place today were also in place yesterday when you made that prediction so why didn't you take them into account then? Your issue is you keep pulling that one sentence out of the whole post, if you read all around it and the post I was responding too you will understand my actual point instead of what you've manufactured.. I basically stopped reading there. You weren't responding to anyone, especially me. I hadn't posted in this thread for days when you made your post with your prediction that things would get worse over the winter. If you think I am pulling one sentence out of context here is the post in its entirety: Please tell me who or what you were responding to because literally nobody in this thread was even on that topic when you made your post as evidenced by you starting the post "I'm surprised it is not talked about any more. I don't even really care that you were wrong. You are often wrong. This is just one of the more black and white examples where you randomly decided to make a prediction and within 24 hours the experts made an opposite prediction. Now I'm just confirming that you're the type of person that can't concede an inch in any argument by the fact that you're inventing a context for your post that didn't exist when you made it. An aside: + Show Spoiler +It is pretty unwise to stop reading posts part way through that you are arguing how are you sure I'm wrong when you have not read what I've written. This is basically you admitting that you are ignorant (lacking knowledge, information, or awareness about a particular thing) to my point which is likely why you are so far off categorizing it. And this confirms my suspicion that you make assumptions and treat them as facts because you can't possibly know that I'm so wrong without knowing what I've written. Thank you for confirming because it was hard to understand how you could continue to miss categorize what I was saying so badly.
But here I go again with a different approach!
I cleared that up on the next post which you did respond too (but perhaps did not read) and have gone into a lot more detail since (but again who knows if you even read anything I've written let alone critically thought about it). A lot of other people have also let you know that the death's lag behind the new cases, right now is winter I'm expecting the deaths to be worse for at the next at least couple of weeks then they were for the past 5 but likely longer and I'll explain why.
For the 8th time, my issue with your post was not your call that new infections are at their peak, it is the reason that you said they peaked that I took issue with, and still do. If people believe your reason and there by change their behavior (voluntarily or the removal of measures) then you will have no longer reached your peak. Your peak for new infections could have been at its highest months ago had action been taken sooner. None of this has to do with the virus burning itself out. Which again is my contention with your post and has been the entire time.
Think of Israel, look into the numbers and see how much worse and for how much and longer it has been than the entire US. It has not burnt itself out, this is why they are spending the most in the world to make sure to get the vaccine out. If it has not burnt itself out their it won't in the US.
And now onto your contention that I'm not being consistent.
When I said worse I did not mean that the US will get more new daily infections than the day before but rather that more deaths would likely happen in the next 5 weeks then the previous one. I thought that this was was clear since I was talking about deaths and not new daily infections including only the total deaths and the deaths over the past 5 weeks, but let me show you what I mean with numbers, since it was not clear to you.
To show you how tenuous this currently is and how bad it is yesterdays active cases in the USA were 9,674,749 and todays are 9,739,808 which is 65k higher, two days ago was 9612,856 so up 126k over the 2 days, which means that well the daily new cases are lower than they were a week ago you are still getting MANY more new infected people then you have recovering and until this gets smaller things like deaths, hospitalizations, ICUs long covid patients and so on will get worse.
Well telling this is not the perfect data you can rely on, on its own. Not everyone reports that they have recovered (nor do we catch every infection but all data has limitations) so we need to look at a couple of things to make the best prediction.
The hospitalization rate appearing to stabilize is a good thing but the issue is that there is a huge amount of the US is not reporting their hospitalization rate so the numbers are not that reliable to make a determination on the country as a whole. Also, they can't just stay at what they are to be better than then last 5 weeks, because it is much worse than it was 5,4, 3 and 2 weeks ago, so it needs to get not only better than it is, but better than it was.
Does that make sense on why things can get "worse" even if you have peaked in new daily infections? We need the recovery rate to be higher than the new infection rate for things to get "better".
Another indicator of what I am talking about is you had 4394 deaths on the 20th and 4364 deaths on the 21st these days represent the 2nd worst and 3rd worst days of covid deaths in the US. (at the time of this they have not reported all the deaths for today but I am sure hopeful it is much lower as 3 days in a row of this bad would be horrific) when the US had their biggest day ever a little bit back there was a 400 death drop the following day and more right after so it is concerning that this time it stayed almost the same meaning that if it was a backlog of deaths it was a massive back log or that it is just really really bad. (todays deaths are currently at 3646, but were below 2k when I first starting writing this post I hope this is all but I'm not sure, by the time you look at it will likely be even higher)
Does it now make sense why I can hold the position that it will both get "worse" and that new daily infections appear to have peaked?
And I say appear because new cases on the last 5 days have been 177,012 150475 175785 190216 194622 your article talks of numbers since Wednesday so it may include the 190216 but would not include 194622. This is probably why
"CDC scientists would not be comfortable saying the outbreak has peaked until there have been several weeks of decline in newly reported cases," CDC spokesman Jason McDonald wrote in an email.
The good news is even the climb in the last 2 days of new daily infections is lower than when the daily new infections was at its worst (Jan 12th). The bad news is the the deaths were so bad the last two days and that while it looked like it had peaked last week but is now climbing again, this sort of pattern is common because reporting of deaths goes down on the weekend.
Now I'll ask, but given that you seem resistant to answer my questions in spite of me answering all of yours and I'm not sure if I will get answer but.
Do you still believe that the virus has burnt itself out? If so please define what you mean as I understand it to mean that there is not enough hosts who are not immune so the numbers begin to drop based on the immunity of the masses gained from their previous infections, and if possible provide some sort of evidence or at least the reasoning to why you think this?
And
Do you now understand why I can say both new daily infections look like they have peaked (not everywhere as some places have not taken the necessary measures but in regards to the US as a whole) as long as the measures and behaviors remain AND that it will get worse (meaning deaths in the next 5 weeks will likely be higher than they were in the previous 5 weeks and we can test this as I was speaking on the date that the US hit 400k deaths) through the winter?
Sorry for this being so long but given that you don't seem to count follow up posts to your concerns, I've tried to include everything I think you might need or have questions on in this one.
|
On January 23 2021 06:33 Belisarius wrote:
I agree that talking about the UK variant is inconsistent with the WHO's desperation to avoid "Wuhan virus". Once again you can thank China's focus on managing the optics rather than the outbreak at the beginning. The UK hasn't really bothered managing either.
The media here isn't calling it the UK variant are they though? It's the UK MUTANT STRAIN.
EU member states are now starting to import vaccines themselves as they believe the EU rollout has been too slow and inefficient.Hungarys Orban is looking into importing several million doses of the Chinese vaccine.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/orban-pressures-hungarian-regulator-to-decide-on-chinese-vaccine?sref=ZMFHsM5Z
Orban Pressures Hungarian Regulator to Decide on Chinese Vaccine
Hungary’s prime minister piled pressure on the national health authority to decide on approving Covid-19 vaccines from China, saying western versions negotiated by the European Union were too slow to arrive.
Viktor Orban is treading a fine line as he seeks to boost vaccinations without raising already alarming rates of vaccine skepticism in Hungary. He was an early supporter of Russia’s vaccine and he initially said people wouldn’t be told which doses they would be getting. He has since said citizens would be informed.
|
What else should they call them, there is now the UK strain, California strain and South Africa strain. It is not offensive because no one is blaming those places for it, nor are they trying to down play its seriousness like with the Kung flu, Wuhan flu names.
It also has to do with recognition for the public, it is not harder for the public to learn covid-19 or just covid than Wuhan flu.
Where as covid-19 b.1.1.7 or covid-1920I/501Y.V1 is kinda hard to remember especially when there is also covid-19 1.351 and covid-19 L452r and others
And yes those are the technical names.
|
You guys think we'll be able to travel to the US in june?
I know we can't know definitely but if we were to guess
(Thanks for the answers)
|
On January 24 2021 01:38 JimmiC wrote: What else should they call them, there is now the UK strain, California strain and South Africa strain. It is not offensive because no one is blaming those places for it, nor are they trying to down play its seriousness like with the Kung flu, Wuhan flu names.
It also has to do with recognition for the public, it is not harder for the public to learn covid-19 or just covid than Wuhan flu.
Where as covid-19 b.1.1.7 or covid-1920I/501Y.V1 is kinda hard to remember especially when there is also covid-19 1.351 and covid-19 L452r and others
And yes those are the technical names.
Denmark actually destroyed their fur industry partly for that reason, they did NOT want a mutation to be called the Danish mink mutation. I am not arguing if it was correct or not.
|
|
On January 24 2021 04:43 Nebuchad wrote: You guys think we'll be able to travel to the US in june?
I know we can't know definitely but if we were to guess I would think so, the numbers where you are at should be better then the US, they will be looking to open up. You will likely have to jump some hoops like a recent negative test. Your issues are probably going to be what you will need to do on your way back 14 day quarantine or what ever and whether or not you want to accept the risk which might still be fairly high depending on where you are going.
I base this on that they have been asking to open up our boarder but we have resisted because their numbers are so much worse then us and we have many locked down areas trying to get it back to at least where it was in the summer.
But as you point who knows, these variants could change the game and the vaccine rollout is not going well, it appears operation warp speed was a failure plus the manufacturers have had delays (though that is not currently a issue for the US since they are not getting out what they have, and according to the manufacturers this delay is to ramp up and they will make it up, but we shall see).
So my best guess is, if you want to you would be able too.
|
On January 24 2021 04:43 Nebuchad wrote: You guys think we'll be able to travel to the US in june?
I know we can't know definitely but if we were to guess
You can already travel to the us i think if it is for work? For pleasure probably yes though you will need a negative test. Things will open up as soon as there is even a little room to do so as the past 9 months have shown. And cases will probably start to drop a bit during the spring. I dont think there is any reason to book in advance though,even if tourism increases it will be far from the normal volume and their should be ample capacity.
|
On January 24 2021 01:38 JimmiC wrote: What else should they call them, there is now the UK strain, California strain and South Africa strain. It is not offensive because no one is blaming those places for it, nor are they trying to down play its seriousness like with the Kung flu, Wuhan flu names.
. I'd rather see the media here refer to it as the UK strain or UK variant rather than the UK Mutant strain.The place being in it has nothing to do with it.
|
ive literally never seen a news article in australia call it the "uk mutant strain". its either been just "uk strain" or "uk variant"
|
|
One of the greatest beneficiaries from the lockdowns, Amazons Jeff Bezos is now claiming a ~3% COVID positive rate in it's Alabama facility does not classify as an outbreak.This is all down to him wanting a union vote to be held in person rather than by mail.Amazon is also pushing that mail-in voting is 'imperfect' (could lead to vote fraud).
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/22/tech/amazon-nlrb-union-election/index.html
In filings this week, however, Amazon said the NLRB decision regarding its election doesn't specify what is considered an "outbreak." Amazon said the NLRB's Acting Regional Director, Lisa Henderson, "reached the remarkable conclusion that any level of infection or potential infection among employees counts as an 'outbreak.'"
Amazon said that at its Bessemer facility, 2.88% of Amazon's 7,575 employees and third-party workers at the facility -- or 218 people -- tested positive during the 14-day period ending on January 7. Amazon rejected the idea that this would be considered an outbreak.
"If true, facilities will be in a constant state of 'outbreak' unless and until the virus all but disappears, with no manual elections occurring until that unknown time," the filing read, also citing that a mail election could "disenfranchise dozens or hundreds of voters" because it is imperfect.
|
Anti covid-19 restrictions demonstrations in Copenhagen yesterday, which included arrests, throwing bottles at the police and burning a doll of the prime minister stating "she must be euthanized".
The fear of the UK-strain is spreading in Norway, as Oslo is closing down. They are taking it extremely seriously, even though the number of new infections in Norway is very low in an European context. The new strain seems much more contagious, and might be more deadly as well.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/9-arrested-at-coronavirus-protests-in-denmark/2104600#
|
Norway28261 Posts
On January 24 2021 18:19 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:One of the greatest beneficiaries from the lockdowns, Amazons Jeff Bezos is now claiming a ~3% COVID positive rate in it's Alabama facility does not classify as an outbreak.This is all down to him wanting a union vote to be held in person rather than by mail.Amazon is also pushing that mail-in voting is 'imperfect' (could lead to vote fraud). https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/22/tech/amazon-nlrb-union-election/index.htmlShow nested quote + In filings this week, however, Amazon said the NLRB decision regarding its election doesn't specify what is considered an "outbreak." Amazon said the NLRB's Acting Regional Director, Lisa Henderson, "reached the remarkable conclusion that any level of infection or potential infection among employees counts as an 'outbreak.'"
Amazon said that at its Bessemer facility, 2.88% of Amazon's 7,575 employees and third-party workers at the facility -- or 218 people -- tested positive during the 14-day period ending on January 7. Amazon rejected the idea that this would be considered an outbreak.
"If true, facilities will be in a constant state of 'outbreak' unless and until the virus all but disappears, with no manual elections occurring until that unknown time," the filing read, also citing that a mail election could "disenfranchise dozens or hundreds of voters" because it is imperfect.
Did you seriously read, and bolden, 'could disenfranchise voters' for then to summarize it as 'could lead to vote fraud'?
I mean, I think amazon isn't being legitimate (I'm guessing they want in-person non-anonymous voting because they want people to be afraid of voting for unionizing or whatever it is) - but this is silly. (Just to be clear - this is an attempt at some sort of legitimizing 'mail in votes are likely to be fraudulent - just look at the american election'- type of argument, just casually thrown into the covid discussion. )
|
On January 24 2021 14:46 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2021 01:38 JimmiC wrote: What else should they call them, there is now the UK strain, California strain and South Africa strain. It is not offensive because no one is blaming those places for it, nor are they trying to down play its seriousness like with the Kung flu, Wuhan flu names.
. I'd rather see the media here refer to it as the UK strain or UK variant rather than the UK Mutant strain.The place being in it has nothing to do with it. Wait, what exactly is the problem?
It is a mutant variant of sars-cov-2. That is literally the technical definition. It has mutated, therefore it is a mutant.
|
There is some sort of online vaccine calculator and with the rate vaccination is going I might get my first dose at the end of this year... lol
|
On January 24 2021 20:22 Belisarius wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2021 14:46 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On January 24 2021 01:38 JimmiC wrote: What else should they call them, there is now the UK strain, California strain and South Africa strain. It is not offensive because no one is blaming those places for it, nor are they trying to down play its seriousness like with the Kung flu, Wuhan flu names.
. I'd rather see the media here refer to it as the UK strain or UK variant rather than the UK Mutant strain.The place being in it has nothing to do with it. Wait, what exactly is the problem? It is a mutant variant of sars-cov-2. That is literally the technical definition. It has mutated, therefore it is a mutant.
The Chinese variant is almost certainly also a mutant variant, that's why it's strange to call the UK variant a "mutant variant".
|
It's not strange to me. We have a mutation that became important to us for the reasons we all know. That's the OG variant. Everything before that is nonexistent. Hence every deviation from the OG is a mutation and the OG is the OG.
|
Everything is a mutant of something else. But the word mutant does lead people to think about fish with three eyes and stuff like that, or scary monsters.
|
|
|
|