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About the social distancing part, I just read an article (German!) where someone distanced themself from March onwards and was really strict about it! And on New Years a friend took their hand - the first "touch" she had for the last 9 months ... and she began to cry! The article goes on about how important touching and similar is for us people for our personal well being!
So, "social distancing is no big deal" could be not that correct... and maybe because it is often "complained" that many people out there are getting "lax" with all the rules could be a reaction of our bodies and minds to change this unnatural behaviour!
That is a sad story. If we could just do do things which had no impact on our quality of life and bring the R-numbers down under 1, this pandemic would be no big deal.
Traditional holidays are probably the most important example. There is just no way to hold a family holiday dinner safely, maybe unless you live in a place with a gigantic table and an individual waitor per person. Cancelling those celebrations is just painful, and many will hold them regardless of the recommendations, often with dire consequences. The US has had major upswings following both Thanksgiving and Christmas. Spain also had another day with 44k new cases (almost 0,1% of the population), and the hospitals are being strained already. The holidays are the obvious smoking gun, even though the restrictions were only slightly lifted for a short time.
My personal take is to not completely cancel social life, but see as few different people as possible. I think it works.
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On January 22 2021 10:31 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 10:09 BlackJack wrote:
It's really pathetic to watch you try to shift the goal posts everytime you said the winter was going to get worse. Full stop. Now that the experts say the opposite you want to add some stipulations that didn't exist when you made the statement. WITHOUT MEASURES. The only reason California is not climbing is their harsh measures, they also have new variant that is more infectious so even with them it is dropping as fast as it would have before, and for all we know it might climb. This is the sentence where I acknowledge that it is going down and state that the reason is not covid burning out but rather that it is measures. Then I point out the variant is still a risk, which your article actually says. I'm really not sure if you are trolling or what is going on. Also do you forget that just hours ago you said you agreed it was because the measures? Go read your article and pull the quote where it explains the why, it is strange how you can read things and just totally ignore the parts you disagree with. Show nested quote +Others warn that the virus could surge again for several reasons, including the sluggish vaccination campaign failing to ramp up and people relaxing the precautions they are taking. See how this suggests that it could go up if people act differently? That suggests the virus is not burning out, because if it was behavior change would not matter. Show nested quote +
Another big concern is the emergence of new variants that spread more easily.
"I think this is a really substantial threat," says Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown School of Public Health. "The experience from the U.K., Ireland and other countries that have seen this is it can very quickly reverse all of the gains and make things dramatically worse. So I am very, very worried about this."
This is the quote that the variants are still a risk. I'm sorry your article does not disagree with what you, now clearly falsely, agreed with.
I don't understand why you don't realize that "Will things get better?" is a completely different question than "Why are things getting better?"
JimmiC on Jan 20: Things will likely get worse over the winter
Experts on Jan 21: Things will likely get better over the winter
JimmiC on Jan 21: Yeah, that's because of the measures
I'm not sure why you think that's relevant and why you can't just admit that you were wrong. Any measures that are in place today were also in place yesterday when you made that prediction so why didn't you take them into account then?
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On January 22 2021 19:27 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 18:40 Slydie wrote:
Spain also had another day with 44k new cases (almost 0,1% of the population), and the hospitals are being strained already. The holidays are the obvious smoking gun, even though the restrictions were only slightly lifted for a short time.
I posted a week or so ago about the situation in Portugal with cases rising fast. Turns out they did not stop rising. Portugal is now the country in the world with the most confirmed cases per million (7 day rolling avg) with 1083 cases per million. Second is Andorra with 944 and then Israel at 875 and Spain at 747. UK is at 597 and US is at 566. The EU average is at 300. We now also lead in confirmed deaths, with 18.24 per million, with the UK coming a close second with 18.1. EU average is 7.36. Schools were only closed today and we've been in a 'lockdown' for a week. The government has avoided strict lockdowns because the country can't afford it. The situation is dire. Hospitals are reaching capacity and the number of ICU patients keep rising every day. Doctors are already picking those who might have bigger chances of living. Sequencing data was shared a couple of days ago and it seems the UK variant is already 20% of cases, rising from 10% a week before. Vaccines are not going to save us in the short term. The situation is horrifying and it will only get worse in the next 15-20 days.  As I believe I told you a week ago, it will take 2 weeks to show the effects of a new measure on cases, ~3 weeks to see it on hospital admissions and 4 weeks for deaths.
What your seeing today has little to do with what you did a week ago, but is from 2 weeks ago. It will be another week of rising cases before you see the measures of the lockdown from last week.
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On January 22 2021 19:37 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 19:27 warding wrote:On January 22 2021 18:40 Slydie wrote:
Spain also had another day with 44k new cases (almost 0,1% of the population), and the hospitals are being strained already. The holidays are the obvious smoking gun, even though the restrictions were only slightly lifted for a short time.
I posted a week or so ago about the situation in Portugal with cases rising fast. Turns out they did not stop rising. Portugal is now the country in the world with the most confirmed cases per million (7 day rolling avg) with 1083 cases per million. Second is Andorra with 944 and then Israel at 875 and Spain at 747. UK is at 597 and US is at 566. The EU average is at 300. We now also lead in confirmed deaths, with 18.24 per million, with the UK coming a close second with 18.1. EU average is 7.36. Schools were only closed today and we've been in a 'lockdown' for a week. The government has avoided strict lockdowns because the country can't afford it. The situation is dire. Hospitals are reaching capacity and the number of ICU patients keep rising every day. Doctors are already picking those who might have bigger chances of living. Sequencing data was shared a couple of days ago and it seems the UK variant is already 20% of cases, rising from 10% a week before. Vaccines are not going to save us in the short term. The situation is horrifying and it will only get worse in the next 15-20 days. As I believe I told you a week ago, it will take 2 weeks to show the effects of a new measure on cases, ~3 weeks to see it on hospital admissions and 4 weeks for deaths. What your seeing today has little to do with what you did a week ago, but is from 2 weeks ago. It will be another week of rising cases before you see the measures of the lockdown from last week.
Yeah that's the super scary part about Covid. So many people can't see a week ahead, let alone a month ahead. It's hard to get people on board with harsher measures when everything looks fine from their perspective. The science, modeling and timescale behind Covid is pretty well known at this point. If it looks like cases are rising, it is much, much better to err on the side of caution and make everybody feel like the reaction was heavy-handed than to allow another 2 weeks for insufficient measures to take effect, and then implement additional measures that don't have an impact until a month later. The virus spreads more easily as more people get infected as well because it gets harder and harder for track and trace and isolation protocols to catch everybody as numbers go up. It takes one super spreader event to cause disaster. A proper reaction from a governmental perspective is going to look like an overreaction to the average citizen.
I know people like to complain about their freedoms and masks and so on, but quite frankly there have been only a few approaches in the world(albeit with different severity levels). I've ranked them in order of effectiveness.
1. Cases to near zero, aggressive quarantine/isolation protocols. People in these places can almost live their lives as normal now.
2. Cases at low, stable, non-zero number. Very, very few examples of this working globally. You need populace buy-in, and very targeted measures(pick and choose) and long term r0 of ~.9 to 0.95 to make this work, because otherwise holidays will fuck you up. Most industries have stayed open and people are still working for the most part. Limited social contact at all times. Rate of change is slow, so timing to implement or remove measures is not as critical. I don't think this will work at all with UK strain, until widespread vaccination/immunity.
3. Cycle between lockdowns, and periods of moderate openness. If you fuck up timings on measures and lockdowns, a lot of people get Covid. Industries that can't survive repeated closure due to lockdowns die. If UK strain has spread significantly, expect cycles between lockdown and heavy measures. I haven't seen anything short of full lockdown be effective against it.
4. Do nothing more than maybe mask mandate and let it burn out. A lot of people die. Not a good option, but has happened in many poor countries by necessity.
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I agree with that. #2 is the unicorn situation that everyone wants but almost nobody has been able to achieve in the long run. I think it's well past time we stopped pretending it was a practical goal, especially with the new variant around.
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A few Asian countries have pulled off #2 well. Partly due the collective culture, and mental fortitude to accept the new norm (whatever it is). They don't see #2 as a temporary hindrance or a 'deal' that will bring everything back to normal like before. They may not like #2, but they can live with #2 for years or even the rest of their lives if need be. They don't have lofty aspiritations that everything will work out the end. They don't get mad if their leaders make a boo-boo. They're calm, they're patient. Live the moment. There's no day but today. That's how they make #2 work.
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On January 22 2021 21:59 RKC wrote:
A few Asian countries have pulled off #2 well. Partly due the collective culture, and mental fortitude to accept the new norm (whatever it is). They don't see #2 as a temporary hindrance or a 'deal' that will bring everything back to normal like before. They may not like #2, but they can live with #2 for years or even the rest of their lives if need be. They don't have lofty aspiritations that everything will work out the end. They don't get mad if shit hits the fan. They're calm, they're patient. Live the moment. There's no day but today. That's how they make #2 work.
And for Taiwan, they have a very solid wall of defences, super strict quarentine rules for travelers from abroad, a very well developed tracking program and restrictions in place, even though there are practically no cases. Even with the odd failure, they are very likely to keep the situation under control.
However, if the virus first got a solid foothold, #2 seems almost impossible. The restrictions needed to keep the numbers go down are not sustainable longterm.
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On January 22 2021 22:04 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 21:59 RKC wrote:
A few Asian countries have pulled off #2 well. Partly due the collective culture, and mental fortitude to accept the new norm (whatever it is). They don't see #2 as a temporary hindrance or a 'deal' that will bring everything back to normal like before. They may not like #2, but they can live with #2 for years or even the rest of their lives if need be. They don't have lofty aspiritations that everything will work out the end. They don't get mad if shit hits the fan. They're calm, they're patient. Live the moment. There's no day but today. That's how they make #2 work. And for Taiwan, they have a very solid wall of defences, super strict quarentine rules for travelers from abroad, a very well developed tracking program and restrictions in place, even though there are practically no cases. Even with the odd failure, they are very likely to keep the situation under control. However, if the virus first got a solid foothold, #2 seems almost impossible. The restrictions needed to keep the numbers go down are not sustainable longterm.
Yes, strict entry restrictions is definitely a must. But then Western countries kept crying "discrimination" and "human rights" in the early days. Australia, in contrast, took swift action against travellers from China.
Now no one bats an eyelid banning UK folks or throwing around the word "UK variant" 
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Zurich15366 Posts
It's so frustrating that we were all set up for #2 in the summer. We had like 100 cases a week in all of Germany. But our approach was that this is a good time to lift restrictions and fly to Spain to party.
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On January 22 2021 22:58 zatic wrote:
It's so frustrating that we were all set up for #2 in the summer. We had like 100 cases a week in all of Germany. But our approach was that this is a good time to lift restrictions and fly to Spain to party.
The 100 is not really correct, i think the best 7-day average was somewhere in the 200s. But other than that, i absolutely agree. We were winning, and then we decided that it is over and we can stop trying. Now shit is far worse than in march, and we are only very slowly starting to get a handle on it again.
I feel kind of betrayed by the people who decide that their stupid vacation or party is worth this. I kept contacts really low throughout the year and made a lot of sacrifices for that, while these assholes ruined shit for everyone and made everything i did worthless.
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On January 22 2021 22:13 RKC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 22:04 Slydie wrote:On January 22 2021 21:59 RKC wrote:
A few Asian countries have pulled off #2 well. Partly due the collective culture, and mental fortitude to accept the new norm (whatever it is). They don't see #2 as a temporary hindrance or a 'deal' that will bring everything back to normal like before. They may not like #2, but they can live with #2 for years or even the rest of their lives if need be. They don't have lofty aspiritations that everything will work out the end. They don't get mad if shit hits the fan. They're calm, they're patient. Live the moment. There's no day but today. That's how they make #2 work. And for Taiwan, they have a very solid wall of defences, super strict quarentine rules for travelers from abroad, a very well developed tracking program and restrictions in place, even though there are practically no cases. Even with the odd failure, they are very likely to keep the situation under control. However, if the virus first got a solid foothold, #2 seems almost impossible. The restrictions needed to keep the numbers go down are not sustainable longterm. Yes, strict entry restrictions is definitely a must. But then Western countries kept crying "discrimination" and "human rights" in the early days. Australia, in contrast, took swift action against travellers from China. Now no one bats an eyelid banning UK folks or throwing around the word "UK variant"
australia took action against the whole world, not just china. hardly a good example of a country that defied discrimination claims like you implied
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On January 23 2021 00:33 evilfatsh1t wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 22:13 RKC wrote:On January 22 2021 22:04 Slydie wrote:On January 22 2021 21:59 RKC wrote:
A few Asian countries have pulled off #2 well. Partly due the collective culture, and mental fortitude to accept the new norm (whatever it is). They don't see #2 as a temporary hindrance or a 'deal' that will bring everything back to normal like before. They may not like #2, but they can live with #2 for years or even the rest of their lives if need be. They don't have lofty aspiritations that everything will work out the end. They don't get mad if shit hits the fan. They're calm, they're patient. Live the moment. There's no day but today. That's how they make #2 work. And for Taiwan, they have a very solid wall of defences, super strict quarentine rules for travelers from abroad, a very well developed tracking program and restrictions in place, even though there are practically no cases. Even with the odd failure, they are very likely to keep the situation under control. However, if the virus first got a solid foothold, #2 seems almost impossible. The restrictions needed to keep the numbers go down are not sustainable longterm. Yes, strict entry restrictions is definitely a must. But then Western countries kept crying "discrimination" and "human rights" in the early days. Australia, in contrast, took swift action against travellers from China. Now no one bats an eyelid banning UK folks or throwing around the word "UK variant" australia took action against the whole world, not just china. hardly a good example of a country that defied discrimination claims like you implied
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/coronavirus-australia-extends-travel-ban-on-people-entering-from-china
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/australia-extends-coronavirus-ban-on-travel-from-china-into-fourth-week
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On January 23 2021 01:01 RKC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2021 00:33 evilfatsh1t wrote:On January 22 2021 22:13 RKC wrote:On January 22 2021 22:04 Slydie wrote:On January 22 2021 21:59 RKC wrote:
A few Asian countries have pulled off #2 well. Partly due the collective culture, and mental fortitude to accept the new norm (whatever it is). They don't see #2 as a temporary hindrance or a 'deal' that will bring everything back to normal like before. They may not like #2, but they can live with #2 for years or even the rest of their lives if need be. They don't have lofty aspiritations that everything will work out the end. They don't get mad if shit hits the fan. They're calm, they're patient. Live the moment. There's no day but today. That's how they make #2 work. And for Taiwan, they have a very solid wall of defences, super strict quarentine rules for travelers from abroad, a very well developed tracking program and restrictions in place, even though there are practically no cases. Even with the odd failure, they are very likely to keep the situation under control. However, if the virus first got a solid foothold, #2 seems almost impossible. The restrictions needed to keep the numbers go down are not sustainable longterm. Yes, strict entry restrictions is definitely a must. But then Western countries kept crying "discrimination" and "human rights" in the early days. Australia, in contrast, took swift action against travellers from China. Now no one bats an eyelid banning UK folks or throwing around the word "UK variant" australia took action against the whole world, not just china. hardly a good example of a country that defied discrimination claims like you implied https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/coronavirus-australia-extends-travel-ban-on-people-entering-from-chinahttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/australia-extends-coronavirus-ban-on-travel-from-china-into-fourth-week
i live in australia mate. i know what this country did for bans.
basically what jimmic said. also even if you want to say australia's first choice of action to ban china only was something worth mentioning, the reasoning for that ban still doesnt support your claim about how australia had to fight allegations of discrimination. the ban wasnt against the chinese people, it was against anyone who travelled through the country. and the "ban" basically only meant that you couldnt enter australia immediately after leaving china (stopover somewhere for 2 weeks before flying to aus). seeing as the virus originated from there and we're talking very early days in the pandemic, it wasnt some ground breaking decision to be bold. most importantly when it didnt work australia just said fuck it and banned everyone
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A lot of countries are still having their borders closed!
Seems to be a good thing, if you look at what happened in the EU! And I'm not writing "Europe" to show the problem "we" are having ...
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On January 22 2021 23:06 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2021 19:21 BlackJack wrote:On January 22 2021 10:31 JimmiC wrote:On January 22 2021 10:09 BlackJack wrote:
It's really pathetic to watch you try to shift the goal posts everytime you said the winter was going to get worse. Full stop. Now that the experts say the opposite you want to add some stipulations that didn't exist when you made the statement. WITHOUT MEASURES. The only reason California is not climbing is their harsh measures, they also have new variant that is more infectious so even with them it is dropping as fast as it would have before, and for all we know it might climb. This is the sentence where I acknowledge that it is going down and state that the reason is not covid burning out but rather that it is measures. Then I point out the variant is still a risk, which your article actually says. I'm really not sure if you are trolling or what is going on. Also do you forget that just hours ago you said you agreed it was because the measures? Go read your article and pull the quote where it explains the why, it is strange how you can read things and just totally ignore the parts you disagree with. Others warn that the virus could surge again for several reasons, including the sluggish vaccination campaign failing to ramp up and people relaxing the precautions they are taking. See how this suggests that it could go up if people act differently? That suggests the virus is not burning out, because if it was behavior change would not matter.
Another big concern is the emergence of new variants that spread more easily.
"I think this is a really substantial threat," says Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown School of Public Health. "The experience from the U.K., Ireland and other countries that have seen this is it can very quickly reverse all of the gains and make things dramatically worse. So I am very, very worried about this."
This is the quote that the variants are still a risk. I'm sorry your article does not disagree with what you, now clearly falsely, agreed with. I don't understand why you don't realize that "Will things get better?" is a completely different question than "Why are things getting better?" JimmiC on Jan 20: Things will likely get worse over the winter Experts on Jan 21: Things will likely get better over the winter JimmiC on Jan 21: Yeah, that's because of the measures I'm not sure why you think that's relevant and why you can't just admit that you were wrong. Any measures that are in place today were also in place yesterday when you made that prediction so why didn't you take them into account then? Your issue is you keep pulling that one sentence out of the whole post, if you read all around it and the post I was responding too you will understand my actual point instead of what you've manufactured..
I basically stopped reading there. You weren't responding to anyone, especially me. I hadn't posted in this thread for days when you made your post with your prediction that things would get worse over the winter. If you think I am pulling one sentence out of context here is the post in its entirety:
Please tell me who or what you were responding to because literally nobody in this thread was even on that topic when you made your post as evidenced by you starting the post "I'm surprised it is not talked about any more.
I don't even really care that you were wrong. You are often wrong. This is just one of the more black and white examples where you randomly decided to make a prediction and within 24 hours the experts made an opposite prediction. Now I'm just confirming that you're the type of person that can't concede an inch in any argument by the fact that you're inventing a context for your post that didn't exist when you made it.
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EPT
