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On January 27 2021 06:01 Artisreal wrote: To me its different. I'm starting to be more dilligent. I explain that with better mental health on my part - I am more equipped to deal with adversity instead of ignoring it as much as I allowed myself to do earlier - and the occurence of the more contagious variants meaning it's arguably as important if not more important to be vigilant than before.
My grandparents in law both surviving an infection in the last weeks underscores that it can hit everyone. They probably got it from an elderly day care. They don't live in a crowded area, don't party hard and stuff. Don't see that many people directly. Still got it.
I actually did not say anything about being dillingent or not. Of course I am very, very careful! It takes a special kind of asshole not to be when the local healthcare system is hanging on by a thread!
It was more that my personal reaction to hearing about new cases in my circles are changing as they get more numerous.
I did not want to imply that you weren't in any form - who am I to judge. That might've come out wrong, now that I read it again, sorry. I was thinking about your comment on accustomization, getting used to the daily rut of hearing the numbers, hearing about friends and acuaintances contracting it. What I may have left out is that I was feeling like that very early on and that I'm just now really starting to translate my knowledge about the situation into proper actions.
That's more like what I wanted to express - no criticism of you.
A short, unbiased review of the Swedish model. Promises to update with future videos on their situation.
Edit: The video describes the differences in Swedish measures taken compared to other countries (overall fewer restrictions like not generally forcing bars/restaurants or sports facilities to close, fewer mask mandates, etc. Instead more appeals to individual responsibility and trust. The plan being to aim for long-term sustainability). It shows the consequences as a numerical comparison with other countries (Sweden doing either well or not so well depending on the perspective) as well as local outbreaks among high-risk demographics, it touches on the difference for high- and low-income earners, and it shows studies on the effect of lockdowns (saying the effect is overall the same between stricter and less strict measures). It also goes into the (false) projections/claims of herd immunity, possible planned strictness for future restrictions. And it goes into a few other things like sanitation (masks, gloves, other hygiene) as well as a few details on travel/commuting.
Not sure about this news since it's very recent, but it seems valid as it comes from the CDC and has been posted by multiple reputable sources. Should inform future policy.
Jan. 26 (UPI) -- COVID-19 transmission in schools is nearly 40% lower than spread in surrounding communities, thanks to high compliance with mask-wearing protocols among students and teachers, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Chinese vaccine generally looks like a big fail. Unimpressive efficacy and key partners are not getting promised doses because they're prioritized for domestic use. Generally feels like the nations that backed China's vaccine are getting the short end of the stick here.
No idea what's going on with AstraZeneca at this point. It's definitely the one vaccine that got the most hype from the very start, and that was the hope of nations short on cash and infrastructure, but its lack of approval and mediocre efficacy has put it in limbo.
The troubles of these two big players is definitely going to put a colossal dent in the global vaccination effort.
On January 27 2021 09:58 LegalLord wrote: Chinese vaccine generally looks like a big fail. Unimpressive efficacy and key partners are not getting promised doses because they're prioritized for domestic use. Generally feels like the nations that backed China's vaccine are getting the short end of the stick here.
No idea what's going on with AstraZeneca at this point. It's definitely the one vaccine that got the most hype from the very start, and that was the hope of nations short on cash and infrastructure, but its lack of approval and mediocre efficacy has put it in limbo.
The troubles of these two big players is definitely going to put a colossal dent in the global vaccination effort.
Yin Weidong, reiterated that the vaccine was 100 percent effective in preventing severe cases
That's probably the only upside that I can see. It's good enough that people won't die from covid any more, but it's not going to get the populace to herd immunity on it's own. Given that 50% had mild symptoms or more, I would probably guess that a fair portion of the asymptomatic people would still spread the virus after vaccination if they catch covid.
I feel sorry for the countries that get that vaccine, and for international travelers to and from said country because it's going to just result in an endemic virus that's almost impossible to eliminate because it's going to literally be indistinguishable from a cold without testing, even at 100% vaccination.
Everyone says "100 percent effectiveness against severe cases." The Chinese claim is less credible than any other one in that regard just by virtue of their low overall efficacy.
You won't get any meaningful herd immunity with a 50 percent effectiveness rate. It honestly feels like a vaccine like that is something you'd give only to the elderly to stop them from dying, assuming it isn't somehow less effective among that part of the population. Beyond that, it seems much better to just wait even 3-6 months until a real vaccine is available for anyone outside of the highest risk group.
If the AstraZeneca vaccine at a respectable-but-middling 60-70 percent is marginal and there's questions about whether or not it should be used, a 50% vaccine seems downright disqualifying.
On January 27 2021 10:39 LegalLord wrote: Everyone says "100 percent effectiveness against severe cases." The Chinese claim is less credible than any other one in that regard just by virtue of their low overall efficacy.
You won't get any meaningful herd immunity with a 50 percent effectiveness rate. It honestly feels like a vaccine like that is something you'd give only to the elderly to stop them from dying, assuming it isn't somehow less effective among that part of the population. Beyond that, it seems much better to just wait even 3-6 months until a real vaccine is available for anyone outside of the highest risk group.
If the AstraZeneca vaccine at a respectable-but-middling 60-70 percent is marginal and there's questions about whether or not it should be used, a 50% vaccine seems downright disqualifying.
I definitely agree with this sentiment. In terms of usefulness, almost 2 orders of magnitude more people will still be potential carriers after vaccination compared to Pfizer or Moderna recipients. Only really good for stopping old people from dying. If I got that shot I would definitely look to get pfizer or moderna dose as a followup at some point in time.
In general, I'm not sure I would trust in the generalizability of claims about stopping severe illness completely for any vaccine when it comes to the very old or the old and unhealthy. From my looks at published trials of vaccine efficacy (the very few that are published), those kinds of people often directly or indirectly aren't allowed to enroll, and-even if they are-none of the trials were powered or designed to draw conclusions about severe illness in anyone, let alone in those groups.
Not that this is an argument against the trials themselves-in the midst of an epidemic it makes way more sense to power to detect symptomatic cases and study a group you are well aware of the risks in-but it's important to keep in mind that none of these projects were designed to answer those questions, and they all reported the instant the core study goals were met. It's especially difficult when you're thinking about groups that are currently doing the most to isolate out of anyone in the population like the old old/sick old.
There are some starting and ongoing trials looking to examine effects in those groups to carve out an approval niche, like Novavax, but I think they're likely screwed because those groups are already getting vaccinated.
Initial reports from Israel show that the first shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine might be less effective than the clinical studies suggested, only reducing 33% of the cases compared to a control group. A clinical study showed 52,4% reduction.
It is definitely a 2-shot vaccine! I hope we get some more encouraging results once the 2nd shots in Israel are done, and the time to get máximum protection has passed.
The protection of the first shot kicks in after 12 days. If someone gets the shot and thinks they're fine, well, they're wrong.
The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases over time among placebo and vaccine recipients begins to diverge by 12 days after the first dose, 7 days after the estimated median viral incubation period of 5 days,10 indicating the early onset of a partially protective effect of immunization. The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen. Nevertheless, in the interval between the first and second doses, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2.
I don't understand this news. Just recently it was discovered that schools can be made very safe (posted link in earlier comment). Today the UK decides schools can't reopen until March at the earliest. How does that make any sense? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55828952
On January 28 2021 05:57 Magic Powers wrote: I don't understand this news. Just recently it was discovered that schools can be made very safe (posted link in earlier comment). Today the UK decides schools can't reopen until March at the earliest. How does that make any sense? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55828952
Remember also that the UK is dealing with a more infectious strain, that appears to spread easier. Combined with their current issues I can't blame them wanting to be careful.
On January 28 2021 05:57 Magic Powers wrote: I don't understand this news. Just recently it was discovered that schools can be made very safe (posted link in earlier comment). Today the UK decides schools can't reopen until March at the earliest. How does that make any sense? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55828952
Remember also that the UK is dealing with a more infectious strain, that appears to spread easier. Combined with their current issues I can't blame them wanting to be careful.
I was about to say the same. It seems to spread a lot easier between children.
However, the UN has childrens rights article 28 says all children have a right to "quality education". As this pandemic barely makes anyone under 18 seriously ill, I think it is fair to question how much that right is really worth when adults have to make serious sacrifices for it.
I've been running the numbers every week or so since april. Myself, a bunch of people I know, and my ex gf (who is a nurse that worked in covid units). We both got it in July and I was barely sick for 2 days. Weird ache in hips, fatigue, lack of taste for 20 hours, and mild headache. She had flu like symptoms for 10 days. I didnt get anyone sick as I went back to work after 2 days, with no sneeze or cough, and wearing a mask.
My gf got tested like 3-4 times for her work and insurance etc. I never did but she got a serology test a month later and I had both short and long term antibodies. She was actually convinced that I didnt have it. She is 45 and im 36, I workout and take vitamins she doesnt.
My mom also got it around thanksgiving, shes in her early 60s, overweight and recovering from cancer. She was coughing real bad and they gave her remdesivir, dexamethazone, covalescent plasma, and zinc, D, and other vitamins that she was already taking daily. She cleared it after a week or so.
Most the people I know who had it were between 20-50s and they had cold to flu like symptoms for an average of a week and all recovered. Some of their friends or family have died from covid, likely due to their old age or poor health. No one I know personally has died from it.
Anyway, here is the latest numbers I crunched last week :
Covid Update 1-23-21
- World Coronavirus Cases: 99,255,992 = 1.289% (of the 7,700,000,000 people on earth), ↑up.
- Deaths: 2,127,837 = 2.144% (of the people who got it) ↑up. 0.02763% (of the people in the world), ↑up.
- Recovered: 71,276,480 = 71.81%, ↑up.
- Currently Infected Patients = 25,851,262; 25,740,488 (99.6%) in Mild Condition, ↑up. 111,187 (0.4%) Serious or Critical, down↓.
- Cases which had an outcome = 73,404,730; 71,276,480 (97%) Recovered/Discharged, stable. 2,127,837 (3%) Deaths, stable.
- 80+ years old 14.8%, - 70-79 years old 8.0%, - 60-69 years old 3.6%, - 50-59 years old 1.3%, - 40-49 years old 0.4%, - 30-39 years old 0.2%, - 20-29 years old 0.2%, - 0-19 years old 0.2%, - Male 4.7%, - Female 2.8%
- Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are: - Cardiovascular disease 13.2%, - Diabetes 9.2%, - Chronic respiratory disease 8.0%, - Hypertension 8.4%, - Cancer 7.6%, - No pre-existing conditions 0.9%.
ORANGE COUNTY: ~ 3,010,232 people in OC.
- 218,741 cases = 7.267% of Orange County, ↑up. - 2,547 deaths = 1.164% , ↑up. (0.08461% of Orange County), ↑up. (Most of which are in Anaheim/Santa Ana.) - 150,088 recovered = 68.61% of cases in OC, ↑up. - 0.1197% of the deaths in the world, ↑up. - 0.2204% of the cases in the world, ↑up.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: ~ 335 million people in USA.
- 25,540,219 cases = 7.624% of Americans, ↑up. - 427,089 deaths = 1.672% Of cases, ↑up. (0.1275% of Americans), ↑up. - Total recovered = 15,305,279 = 59.93%, ↑up. - 20.07% of the deaths in the world, ↑up. - 25.73% of the cases in the world, ↑up.
CALIFORNIA: ~ 39.5 million people in CA State.
- 3,085,040 cases = 7.81% of CA, ↑up. 12.08% of USA, ↑up. - 36,361 deaths = 1.179% of CA who got the virus, ↑up. (0.09205% of CA), ↑up. This is 8.514% of the deaths in USA, ↑up. (Most of which is in LA county.) - Total recovered = 1,395,360 = 45.23%, ↑up. - 1.709% deaths of the world, ↑up. - 3.108% cases in the world, ↑up.
NEW YORK: ~ 20 million people in NY State.
- 1,314,267 cases = 6.571% of NY, ↑up. 5.146% of USA, ↑up. - 33,907 deaths = 2.58% of NY who got the virus, down↓. (0.1695% of New Yorkers), ↑up. This is 7.939% of the deaths in USA, down↓. (Most of which is in NY City.) - Total recovered = 518,727 = 39.47%, down↓. - 1.593% of the deaths in the world, down↓. - 1.324% of the cases in the world, ↑up.
- (8,398,748 In NY City)
- Keep in mind USA has tested the most of any other country so far at 297,140,373. The next best tested country is India with 190,985,119. We've tested almost 89% of Americans. And I'm ignoring China data here, because they simply can't be trusted (going from 90 million tests to 160m tests when we are getting close to 90m tests) and very little cases and deaths in a country of billions where it started).
+ USA : 24,000-62,000 Seasonal flu deaths this year, 39m-56m flu cases, 410,000 – 740,000 flu hospitalizations (as of April). Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu. + 13,078 People who died of hunger today. + 213,123 Deaths caused by water related diseases this year. + 248,245 Deaths caused by malaria this year. + 341,638 Road traffic accident fatalities this year. + 67,367 drug overdose deaths occurred in the United States in 2018. + 53,000 mental ill/addict homeless in LA and 918 died in 2018.
8,500 people die every day from ALL causes. Covid spiked up well above that threshold a few times, during April, August, and December 2020. We are reaching the HIT number and the mathematical curves that predict virus outbreaks correspond with the Gompertz and Sigmoid curve graph models for exponential growth and decline.
I have to arrest you here. Millions have done multiple tests and some athletes etc. are tested every week.
You also did not post the numbers for the most common causes of death in the west, cardiovascular diseases and cancer, with smoking contributing to a lion's share of both. After that, the normal number of deaths to lower respiratory diseases is a nice comparison for how a country has dealt with covid-19. For Norway, Covid-19 is not even nearly the most deadly disease in the same category.
I have to arrest you here. Millions have done multiple tests and some athletes etc. are tested every week.
You also did not post the numbers for the most common causes of death in the west, cardiovascular diseases and cancer, with smoking contributing to a lion's share of both. After that, the normal number of deaths to lower respiratory diseases is a nice comparison for how a country has dealt with covid-19. For Norway, Covid-19 is not even nearly the most deadly disease in the same category.
Well yea, thats obvious. You can be negative 100 times, but then get it and test positive. The test is temporal based. That's kinda the point, testing doesn't really mean anything in terms of control or safety.
Cancers and Heart diseases are the leading causes of deaths in the greatest societies. Because those are diseases of old age that are as of now, unavoidable. When you see them competing with accidents for leading causes of death in a country that is a good thing.
They are not what im comparing them here for. #1, its for a frame of reference, is 50k people dying from a virus in a year normal? Is 200k too much? etc. How many people die from all causes every day or year? #2, The things I listed are problems we have been plagued with for decades that nobody even pays attention to, let alone tries to help. And these are all pretty easily helped or preventable.
EPT
