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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On November 23 2020 23:05 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2020 21:27 Harris1st wrote:On November 23 2020 18:54 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote: What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already. It would work if the numbers are low enough but because of the many reasons listed previously the West rarely got that low in case numbers that individual contact tracing would be as useful. And it runs into the very same problem. It works if people use it and take it seriously, it doesn't work if everyone has it but doesn't listen to it. And yes the different views is probably almost entirely what makes this so different, We don't like being told what to do, we don't like the idea of a Big Brother app tracking where we go, despite our phones and social media already tracking us anyway. If there is such a thing as to much freedom is a difficult discussion with probably no right answer but this pandemic does highlight a weakness in Western society. Once upon a time I looked towards the varies zombie/other plague stories as unrealistic. 'We' wouldn't be that stupid in letting it spread, but now, yeah. Seems totally believable. People are that stupid. I do hope that people would react differently to a virus that a 100000000% will kill you opposed to the > 0,1% death rate we have now. Topic: Afraid what will happen around X-mas and New Years. Pushback from the people will probably be tenfold to what we have now regaring lockdowns and distancing from family and friends The IFR is closer to 1%, with a hospitalization rate around 5%. That means 5% death rate if things spiral out of control the way they did in Italy or New York, without taking into account all the deaths resulting from people not being treated for other things. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.htmlhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.30.20223461v1
That is interesting!
I just did a quick check of covid 19 map and divided by 8 billion people and then rounded up cause of hidden deaths
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Astro Zeneca results in. Not as good as the other ones. 62% efficacy with two full doses, but 90% with one half dose and one full dose. It is supposedly cheaper than the others though.
Drugmaker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that its experimental coronavirus vaccine has shown an average efficacy of 70% in large-scale trials -- the latest of several vaccine trials worldwide to post their results this month. The vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, showed 90% efficacy in one dosing regimen -- when the vaccine was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least a month later -- and 62% efficacy in a second regimen -- when two full doses were given at least a month apart. That averages to a 70% efficacy, AstraZeneca said. It is not yet clear why the two dosages produced such different results.
More study participants were given the full dosage regimen, at 62% efficacy, while a smaller number of participants were administered the smaller half dose plus full dose combination at 90% efficacy, according to AstraZeneca's announcement. [...] Crucially, the AstraZeneca vaccine can be distributed and administered within existing healthcare systems, as it can be stored, transported and handled in normal refrigerated conditions (from 2-8 degrees Celsius, or 36-46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months, the company said. It will also be cheaper than rival coronavirus vaccines from makers Pfizer and Moderna. AstraZeneca has pledged to "ensure broad and equitable access to the vaccine at no profit for the duration of the pandemic." The company said it was making "rapid progress" in manufacturing, with a capacity of up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 on a rolling basis, pending regulatory approval.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-intl/index.html
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On November 24 2020 00:45 Nevuk wrote:Astro Zeneca results in. Not as good as the other ones. 62% efficacy with two full doses, but 90% with one half dose and one full dose. It is supposedly cheaper than the others though. Show nested quote +Drugmaker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that its experimental coronavirus vaccine has shown an average efficacy of 70% in large-scale trials -- the latest of several vaccine trials worldwide to post their results this month. The vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, showed 90% efficacy in one dosing regimen -- when the vaccine was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least a month later -- and 62% efficacy in a second regimen -- when two full doses were given at least a month apart. That averages to a 70% efficacy, AstraZeneca said. It is not yet clear why the two dosages produced such different results.
More study participants were given the full dosage regimen, at 62% efficacy, while a smaller number of participants were administered the smaller half dose plus full dose combination at 90% efficacy, according to AstraZeneca's announcement. [...] Crucially, the AstraZeneca vaccine can be distributed and administered within existing healthcare systems, as it can be stored, transported and handled in normal refrigerated conditions (from 2-8 degrees Celsius, or 36-46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months, the company said. It will also be cheaper than rival coronavirus vaccines from makers Pfizer and Moderna. AstraZeneca has pledged to "ensure broad and equitable access to the vaccine at no profit for the duration of the pandemic." The company said it was making "rapid progress" in manufacturing, with a capacity of up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 on a rolling basis, pending regulatory approval.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-intl/index.html half a dose + full dose = 90%, 2 full doses = 62%.
Oo how does that work. Considering it mentions the 90% test set was much smaller this feels like it was an outlier or otherwise faulty in some way?
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On November 24 2020 00:48 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2020 00:45 Nevuk wrote:Astro Zeneca results in. Not as good as the other ones. 62% efficacy with two full doses, but 90% with one half dose and one full dose. It is supposedly cheaper than the others though. Drugmaker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that its experimental coronavirus vaccine has shown an average efficacy of 70% in large-scale trials -- the latest of several vaccine trials worldwide to post their results this month. The vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, showed 90% efficacy in one dosing regimen -- when the vaccine was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least a month later -- and 62% efficacy in a second regimen -- when two full doses were given at least a month apart. That averages to a 70% efficacy, AstraZeneca said. It is not yet clear why the two dosages produced such different results.
More study participants were given the full dosage regimen, at 62% efficacy, while a smaller number of participants were administered the smaller half dose plus full dose combination at 90% efficacy, according to AstraZeneca's announcement. [...] Crucially, the AstraZeneca vaccine can be distributed and administered within existing healthcare systems, as it can be stored, transported and handled in normal refrigerated conditions (from 2-8 degrees Celsius, or 36-46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months, the company said. It will also be cheaper than rival coronavirus vaccines from makers Pfizer and Moderna. AstraZeneca has pledged to "ensure broad and equitable access to the vaccine at no profit for the duration of the pandemic." The company said it was making "rapid progress" in manufacturing, with a capacity of up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 on a rolling basis, pending regulatory approval.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-intl/index.html half a dose + full dose = 90%, 2 full doses = 62%. Oo how does that work. Considering it mentions the 90% test set was much smaller this feels like it was an outlier or otherwise faulty in some way?
It relates to asymptomatic infections, apparently. Sounds a little absurd to me but I'm no doctor.
When people were given the smaller dose, the number of asymptomatic infections dropped, indicating a difference in transmission, Professor Andrew Pollard, the trial's lead investigator at Oxford, said in a call with journalists on Monday. "What we've always tried to do with a vaccine is fool the immune system into thinking that there's a dangerous infection there that it needs to respond to -- but doing it in a very safe way," Pollard explained. "So we get the immune response and we get the immune memory ... waiting and ready if the pathogen itself is then encountered." It may be that the best way of "kicking the immune system into action" is to give the body a small amount of the vaccine to begin with -- and then follow up with a larger amount, but as the data on that method is preliminary, there is still more work to do, Pollard said. [...] AstraZeneca is the third drugmaker to unveil promising results in the fight against coronavirus this month, with Moderna announcing earlier in November that its vaccine was 94.5% effective against coronavirus, and Pfizer/BioNTech revealing that its vaccine was 95% effective. Pollard addressed the efficacy differences between those other trials on Monday, explaining that AstraZeneca had used slightly different protocols to measure the disease that included all aspects of the disease -- including mild cases -- which are harder to predict.
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On November 23 2020 18:54 Gorsameth wrote: And it runs into the very same problem. It works if people use it and take it seriously, it doesn't work if everyone has it but doesn't listen to it.
I'll pick 1 group of people and explain why a reasonable portion of them won't take this disease seriously. The working poor of a city under complete shutdown: Toronto.
Toronto gets a complete shutdown while we pile the working poor into "shuttle buses" and tell them the "public transit is amazing and its getting better every year.... get all cars off the road". https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-pandemic-overcrowded-transit-toronto-1.5729256
I've seen dozens of buses with hundreds of people piled into a shuttle bus. I'd venture to say 10s of thousands of even hundreds of thousands of people have experienced a very overcrowded bus during this pandemic. And they are not dying of Covid19.
Its big government messaging and actions such as this that creates a dystopian attitude amongst the working poor in Toronto.
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On November 24 2020 00:45 Nevuk wrote:Astro Zeneca results in. Not as good as the other ones. 62% efficacy with two full doses, but 90% with one half dose and one full dose. It is supposedly cheaper than the others though. Show nested quote +Drugmaker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that its experimental coronavirus vaccine has shown an average efficacy of 70% in large-scale trials -- the latest of several vaccine trials worldwide to post their results this month. The vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, showed 90% efficacy in one dosing regimen -- when the vaccine was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least a month later -- and 62% efficacy in a second regimen -- when two full doses were given at least a month apart. That averages to a 70% efficacy, AstraZeneca said. It is not yet clear why the two dosages produced such different results.
More study participants were given the full dosage regimen, at 62% efficacy, while a smaller number of participants were administered the smaller half dose plus full dose combination at 90% efficacy, according to AstraZeneca's announcement. [...] Crucially, the AstraZeneca vaccine can be distributed and administered within existing healthcare systems, as it can be stored, transported and handled in normal refrigerated conditions (from 2-8 degrees Celsius, or 36-46 degrees Fahrenheit) for at least six months, the company said. It will also be cheaper than rival coronavirus vaccines from makers Pfizer and Moderna. AstraZeneca has pledged to "ensure broad and equitable access to the vaccine at no profit for the duration of the pandemic." The company said it was making "rapid progress" in manufacturing, with a capacity of up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 on a rolling basis, pending regulatory approval.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-intl/index.html Given that it's an affordable vaccine with favorable logistics, sounds like it's the best results to date.
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I'm not proposing solutions for the government. I am explaining why a portion of the working poor do not take the pandemic seriously. And, really, I do not blame them one bit.
I will propose one aspect of a solution. + Show Spoiler + All levels of government need to stop telling us how great, amazing, and constantly improving Toronto's public transit is. This falsehood is obvious on dozens of levels. Longer wait times for subways since the subways were installed many decades ago. More subway downtime than ever. Every week LINE 1 is down constantly. The monthly "Metrolinx transit pass" now tracks your every movement. The previous "Metropass" transit pass did not track your movements. More crowding on routes than ever. in 1980 a TTC adult fare was $0.5. If we track that with inflation a fare should be ~$1.50. An adult fare is $3.25. The #s for the monthly transit pass are similar. In real terms...with inflation taken into account ... fares have doubled. https://torontoist.com/2009/11/ttc_fares_over_time/This is progress? This is improvement? Telling transit riders everything is great and amazing... when its not.... creates a dystopian negativity amongst the working poor. Its sad man.. just sad. If you require sources for any of these claims. Let me know.
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Sweet. 3rd vaccine is effective: Possibly up to 90% effective vaccine. Also much easier to manufacture and distribute than the pfizer/moderna vaccines.
UK will have enough vaccinate their population by March, and it's significantly cheaper too. The light at the end of the tunnel is brighter every day
Interim data suggests 70% protection, but the researchers say the figure may be as high as 90% by tweaking the dose. ... Overall, there were 30 cases of Covid in people who had two doses of the vaccine and 101 cases in people who received a dummy injection. The researchers said it worked out at 70% protection, which is better than the seasonal flu jab.
Nobody getting the actual vaccine developed severe-Covid or needed hospital treatment.
Prof Andrew Pollard, the trial's lead investigator, said he was "really pleased" with the results as "it means we have a vaccine for the world".
However, protection was 90% in an analysis of around 3,000 people on the trial who were given a half-sized first dose and a full-sized second dose.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55040635
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On November 24 2020 05:16 Lmui wrote:Sweet. 3rd vaccine is effective: Possibly up to 90% effective vaccine. Also much easier to manufacture and distribute than the pfizer/moderna vaccines. UK will have enough vaccinate their population by March, and it's significantly cheaper too. The light at the end of the tunnel is brighter every day Show nested quote +Interim data suggests 70% protection, but the researchers say the figure may be as high as 90% by tweaking the dose. ... Overall, there were 30 cases of Covid in people who had two doses of the vaccine and 101 cases in people who received a dummy injection. The researchers said it worked out at 70% protection, which is better than the seasonal flu jab.
Nobody getting the actual vaccine developed severe-Covid or needed hospital treatment.
Prof Andrew Pollard, the trial's lead investigator, said he was "really pleased" with the results as "it means we have a vaccine for the world".
However, protection was 90% in an analysis of around 3,000 people on the trial who were given a half-sized first dose and a full-sized second dose. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55040635
Good thing for Brazil too, since it's the it's the main partnership established here by the federal government (though in Sao Paulo, we'll probably be getting the chinese vaccine a bit earlier).
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Ontario recently put Peel Region and Toronto in shutdown. One place in Peel called Brampton has a neighbourhood at 19% positivity. ouch. https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/brampton-ont-neighbourhood-has-covid-19-positivity-rate-of-19-per-cent-1.5192786
“There is no doubt that there is a lot of fatigue that is out there and that a lot of people might be flouting the rules and having social gatherings but the true story of Brampton that we have always been speaking to is that these are individuals who work in jobs where they might not be able to work from home and if precautions are not being taken there is a great opportunity for COVID to spread, especially in crowded, large, industrial workplaces,” he said. “Then when people bring the virus home it is not coming to a home of one or two people living in a condo; t is coming to a home with a large family, maybe multiple families and that is essentially leading to significant household spread.”
On November 24 2020 03:38 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2020 02:14 JimmyJRaynor wrote:I'm not proposing solutions for the government. I am explaining why a portion of the working poor do not take the pandemic seriously. And, really, I do not blame them one bit. I will propose one aspect of a solution. + Show Spoiler + All levels of government need to stop telling us how great, amazing, and constantly improving Toronto's public transit is. This falsehood is obvious on dozens of levels. Longer wait times for subways since the subways were installed many decades ago. More subway downtime than ever. Every week LINE 1 is down constantly. The monthly "Metrolinx transit pass" now tracks your every movement. The previous "Metropass" transit pass did not track your movements. More crowding on routes than ever. in 1980 a TTC adult fare was $0.5. If we track that with inflation a fare should be ~$1.50. An adult fare is $3.25. The #s for the monthly transit pass are similar. In real terms...with inflation taken into account ... fares have doubled. https://torontoist.com/2009/11/ttc_fares_over_time/This is progress? This is improvement? Telling transit riders everything is great and amazing... when its not.... creates a dystopian negativity amongst the working poor. Its sad man.. just sad. If you require sources for any of these claims. Let me know. No sources required, just completely unrelated to this thread. huh? i explained how coronavirus is impacting the time i spend in toronto. Watching the working poor get totally shafted is sad man. just sad.
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The hospital my friend works as is making preparations for extreme spike in covid due to thanksgiving.
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I'll throw in some Australian perspective from the last page.
On November 23 2020 10:02 TheYango wrote: America could never achieve a hard lockdown the same way Australia or Asian countries could because of the way Americans behave. The not-so-nice way of putting it is that Americans are too stupid or too selfish to make lockdowns work. You can spend time moralizing about how wrong these people are for being that way, but the fact of the matter is it's still true nonetheless. If you know that 80% of the population are too stupid or too selfish to adhere to your restrictions, then you can't make policy that only works assuming that 80% follows it. You know they aren't going to. So what happens is that when you take half-measures that only 20% of people follow, you aren't achieving anything other than making that 20%'s quality of life worse. I realise you’re arguing this point by proxy rather than in earnest, but Australia is much closer to the US than Asia in terms of personal freedoms. We pretend we’re a nation of convicts; it's not like we're into collectivism.
Apart from being an island, the thing that has served us well during covid is recognising that we’re stupid and selfish, and resolving to make it as difficult as possible for this to ruin things. In practice, that's meant going hard for short periods rather than soft for long periods, on the basis that the latter is impossible to police.
Anecdotally, the mood on the street is very supportive, especially over the last month. People look at Victoria's outcomes with real pride, and know we would instead look like the US if not for lockdowns. Groups like the Pirate Party of Australia, normally all about civil liberty, are on board with restrictions, and even the crazy right-wing nationalists are struggling to meaningfully criticise the situation. We apparently had the largest post-COVID sporting event in the world last week, 50k people in a full stadium and not a single case. I won’t pretend I thought it was a good idea, but even I will admit that it’s a powerful symbol.
People see now that by relinquishing freedom for a period of time, we actually earn our freedom back.
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I saw a video of an Australian woman being arrested, having her home raided and her electronic devices siezed because she tried to organize a protest against her government. I don't think that would fly here.
I'm honestly kind of surprised most people don't understand why so many Americans don't give a shit about COVID. Just look at the obesity rates. People are eating themselves to death and they could live for many years longer if they just ate better and exercised more. They clearly don't care about living as long as possible. I haven't really looked into data but I would guess heart disease leads to far more premature death than COVID. 40% of the COVID deaths are people in nursing homes and nursing home patients have a life expectancy of roughly 2 years. Compare that to a lot of people with heart disease that die 10, 20 or 30 years before they need to if they could just eat a salad. People under 65 are 20x more likely to die of something other than COVID based on current data. That means cause of death for people under 65 is 5% COVID and 95% other things. I don't expect them to care about the 5% when so many of them don't care about the 95%. The only argument that is reasonable to use on these people is to ask them to protect the elderly but we don't have the respect for the elderly here like they do in other countries.
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I don't think it's reducible to mere percentage of deaths. 9/11 and other terrorist acts have caused a miniscule amount of American deaths yet how much money and real freedom have we paid in order to "keep us safe" from them? To say nothing of the mayhem wrought in other countries, torturing prisoners and so on. People are willing to "surrender their freedoms" to a high degree so long as it's framed the right way. But I guess "help protect your neighbors and loved ones from pandemic" just doesn't strike the right chord in the current time.
The more I think about it, the stranger it is that people are so belligerent about masks and social distancing, yet have put up with the TSA literally searching all your stuff, confiscating bottles of liquid, making you take your shoes off etc.
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On November 24 2020 08:39 Starlightsun wrote: I don't think it's reducible to mere percentage of deaths. 9/11 and other terrorist acts have caused a miniscule amount of American deaths yet how much money and real freedom have we paid in order to "keep us safe" from them? To say nothing of the mayhem wrought in other countries, torturing prisoners and so on. People are willing to "surrender their freedoms" to a high degree so long as it's framed the right way. But I guess "help protect your neighbors and loved ones from pandemic" just doesn't strike the right chord in the current time.
The more I think about it, the stranger it is that people are so belligerent about masks and social distancing, yet have put up with the TSA literally searching all your stuff, confiscating bottles of liquid, making you take your shoes off etc.
Yep, the inconsistences are aplenty. Like the Australian woman that was arrested for trying to organize the protest. I first saw that on Reddit and nearly all of the top comments were along the lines of "Play stupid games win stupid prizes." But if you went on Reddit and tried to argue that people attempting to organize BLM protests should be arrested and their homes raided you would be downvoted to Hades. It's sad how many people don't realize that if you don't have freedom of speech for everyone then you don't have freedom of speech for anyone.
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The way China, Singapore, Aus, NZ etc has shown is that it is probably better to have a very hard lock down for a short period to control the situation, and then have your economy open up slowly back to normal. It has come to a point when we don't feel that afraid of the virus anymore, because it feels under control. Life is as normal as it can be when the global economy is down.
What I see in the west is tons of half added measures that are implemented, with people not properly heeding them, and ends up nothing is being controlled meaningfully. Then you have governments giving in to pent up frustration and start opening bars, stadiums etc prematurely and the situation is only going to be worst, not better. Then they are forced to close down again. Stop start stop start.
Like the aussie poster above says, sometimes you give up a little bit of freedom, but you gain much more back. It applies to many other things politically too (guns, religious mockery etc).
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On November 24 2020 06:41 Mohdoo wrote: The hospital my friend works as is making preparations for extreme spike in covid due to thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving + the entire holiday season + New Year's Eve = at least an increase through mid-January
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