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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On November 23 2020 02:09 JimmiC wrote:
If people are really against lockdowns, then the logical position is to be really for the measures that prevent lockdowns.
What people have been trying to tell you, over and over again, is that no such thing exists. The lumpenproletariat will never comply, and at least in the US contain large swaths of people who are more or less outside the law when it comes to petty crimes like this would be.
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Humans have incredibly different prioroties and are experts in justifying things to themselves. Anyone who says otherwise either lacks insigth or lies. Making everyone happy in an emergency is impossible.
This goes both for the ruled and the rulers.
It is just that we are so used to things being ”solved” and predictable so we have little patience and even less understandimg about seeing the global learning process for something new first hand. And we all feel that our concerns are the most important (this goes for both sides).
However if you live in a democracy then follow whatever guidelines are set and if they upset you vote differently next time. Whining about regulations and what could or should have been done is less than helpfull.
This thread is at its best when people share their personal experiences and at its worst when it involves arguing about masks or policy.
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On November 23 2020 07:00 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2020 06:37 cLutZ wrote:On November 23 2020 02:09 JimmiC wrote:
If people are really against lockdowns, then the logical position is to be really for the measures that prevent lockdowns.
What people have been trying to tell you, over and over again, is that no such thing exists. The lumpenproletariat will never comply, and at least in the US contain large swaths of people who are more or less outside the law when it comes to petty crimes like this would be. People like you are as much if not more of a problem then the "pumpenproletariat" you blame. You can look into the social norming and a bunch of other factors to see why. As me and like 20 other people have continued to tell you while you make up things like masks increase armed robbery.
Show me the report detailing the high covid rate in white white collar workers. Very excited to see this new research that reverses all the other demographic trends.
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If you guys actually bothered to treat this seriously instead of whining about wearing masks, complaining about lockdowns, making excuse after excuse to why you shouldn’t take coronavirus seriously, we’d be East Asia or Oceania.
Instead we’re still trying to not admit that we fucked this up hard and whining about people moralising. Of course people are moralising, people put the “economy” over lives initially and now we get the worst of both options. Instead we could have taken this seriously from the get go and be like many of the countries down under or in the East that are basically carrying on like normal without the risk of health issues or death.
East Asia and, most importantly, Australia has given the blueprints. If we’re so selfish to not follow those blueprints, that’s on us and the moralising is completely warranted because the virus is only spreading because of what we don’t want to sacrifice.
Edit: Like I followed the crisis in Australia when Victoria’s outbreak got out of control. Unlike America, Australia isolated Victoria from the rest of the country, Victoria isolated the main metropolitan hub from regional areas that could operate as mostly normal and Victoria went into a hard lockdown. Unlike American and European lockdowns, the complete isolation meant the lockdown actually worked because the virus instead wasn’t spreading state to state and cases are low enough that people are able to visit family during Christmas without worrying about killing elderly parents. This isn’t tyranny, this is doing the sensible thing so the rest of the country doesn’t suffer. And after a little bit of pain, everyone can see their families and carrying on with their lives because cases are so low that the risk of transmission is not terribly serious.
Shit is logical. People just don’t want to do the logical thing because it’s too hard, which is ironic because so many of the same people moan about how entitled people are.
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This arguing in circles is getting quite dull.
On November 23 2020 09:14 StalkerTL wrote:
East Asia and, most importantly, Australia has given the blueprints. If we’re so selfish to not follow those blueprints, that’s on us and the moralising is completely warranted because the virus is only spreading because of what we don’t want to sacrifice.
If I've understood Clutz's point correctly (and he's had to make it over and over again, but he can correct me if I've misinterpreted him), his point has never been that the virus isn't serious or that it's not worth sacrificing for, or that effective containment measures don't exist. But it's that those effective measures will never be effective in America due to various socio-cultural factors, and so implementing half-measures is not effective enough to be worth the cost.
America could never achieve a hard lockdown the same way Australia or Asian countries could because of the way Americans behave. The not-so-nice way of putting it is that Americans are too stupid or too selfish to make lockdowns work. You can spend time moralizing about how wrong these people are for being that way, but the fact of the matter is it's still true nonetheless. If you know that 80% of the population are too stupid or too selfish to adhere to your restrictions, then you can't make policy that only works assuming that 80% follows it. You know they aren't going to. So what happens is that when you take half-measures that only 20% of people follow, you aren't achieving anything other than making that 20%'s quality of life worse.
It's a rather nihilistic point of view that makes any sort of effective public health policy seem futile, and I don't full agree with it, but I do understand where Clutz is coming from. It belies certain deeper, long-standing problems with the way Americans interact with science and how we culturally insist on individuality and autonomy even when approaching problems that are too large and too complex for individuals to meaningfully make their own decisions about.
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Its not even 80%. You fail if it's 20% that don't follow, which is more or less what we have.
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Isn't it something that the ruling class is a sizeable part of that 20 percent, with a big game of "do as I say, not as I do" to boot.
A country with wisdom comparable to that of China didn't really leave it up to the good will of the population anyways - they took the decision out of their hands, closing down major vectors of spread and punishing individuals and organizations (local governments included) that got out of line. If only the US could have been as good at this as China, things might have played out differently.
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It’s up to the government to implement common sense restrictions to account for the idiots who don’t follow the rules. If police departments refuse to enforce the rules, like it is the case with some US regions, then it’s a failure of an educated and rational society and government. If there’s one thing that coronavirus has made clear it’s that a lot of people are incredibly entitled and a lot of places have nearly disfunctional governments.
It isn’t even a left wing or right wing thing. When Victoria knew the virus was out of control, they went full lockdown and everyone blocked travel to and from Victoria. Victoria themselves isolated metropolitan Victoria from rural Victoria, which had few cases at all, so rural areas could continue without restrictions. They did so with the military and police.
When South Australia got an outbreak to some 20 (that’s 20, not this pathetic thing Europe and US are doing by locking down when hospitals are overrun) people, the conservative government forced the state into a hard lockdown (and not the half ass shit we see elsewhere, an actually complete shuttering of just about everything) for a week to determine the spread of the virus. In the process, other states blocked borders with South Australia.
Compare this to the US who might talk about lockdowns but doesn’t do a whole lot to prevent air travel between states. States like Texas did fuck all until hospitals couldn’t cope with the load. It’s pants on head backwards run by governments who either have no balls to do the right thing or just don’t care and just want the “economy” to be back to normal.
Say what you want about China, their government is effective at what they do compared to a lot of other single party or authoritarian states like Russia.
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What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already.
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On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote:
What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already.
Between logistical concerns in implementing it, the political backlash, and questions about legality and enforcement, it definitely wouldn't work in the US. I'm sure it could make sense for a smaller, more densely populated government though.
If only the US were more like China, but alas.
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On November 23 2020 11:19 StalkerTL wrote:
It’s up to the government to implement common sense restrictions to account for the idiots who don’t follow the rules. If police departments refuse to enforce the rules, like it is the case with some US regions, then it’s a failure of an educated and rational society and government. If there’s one thing that coronavirus has made clear it’s that a lot of people are incredibly entitled and a lot of places have nearly disfunctional governments.
It isn’t even a left wing or right wing thing. When Victoria knew the virus was out of control, they went full lockdown and everyone blocked travel to and from Victoria. Victoria themselves isolated metropolitan Victoria from rural Victoria, which had few cases at all, so rural areas could continue without restrictions. They did so with the military and police.
When South Australia got an outbreak to some 20 (that’s 20, not this pathetic thing Europe and US are doing by locking down when hospitals are overrun) people, the conservative government forced the state into a hard lockdown (and not the half ass shit we see elsewhere, an actually complete shuttering of just about everything) for a week to determine the spread of the virus. In the process, other states blocked borders with South Australia.
Compare this to the US who might talk about lockdowns but doesn’t do a whole lot to prevent air travel between states. States like Texas did fuck all until hospitals couldn’t cope with the load. It’s pants on head backwards run by governments who either have no balls to do the right thing or just don’t care and just want the “economy” to be back to normal.
Say what you want about China, their government is effective at what they do compared to a lot of other single party or authoritarian states like Russia.
Authoritarian states are just gonna have an innate advantage in the rare pandemic of this size. They can mass incarcerate people right off the gun and not risk immediate removal. They can literally weld non compliers, or suspected non compliers, into their apartments, and have no court in the land fix that up by the end of the day. If we take clutZ's hypothesis of noncompliance higher in inner cities and lower socioeconomic status, it would mean a government satisfied with sudden mass incarceration of african americans to a degree that would make current complaints about the "same issue" not even close to the same league. He has reason to reach a conclusion that sounds nihilistic. The options are bad.
Then again, free societies distrustful of the exercise of authority gain advantages in other ways.
Looking at the landscape of states, if I didn't label Texas compared to other Southern/border states, I'd challenge any member of the thread to point out which trendline it was and what was the point at which they should've done something. Blue states that didn't do much of a lockdown did both bad in some cases, and well in others. Red states that didn't do much of a lockdown did both bad in some cases, and well in others. Across a huge variety of mitigation measures adopted, the graphs did not show which states had the highest count of measures enacted by the heights of their curves. The media attention on states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida were and are disproportionate compared to the performance of other states.
Nobody here should expect states to shut down air travel or interstate travel. They can, and some have, attempted to implement contact tracing and quarantines backed by fines for out of state travelers.
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On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote:
What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already.
That seems like a good approach. But for my consent it'd require the promise that it's temporary, because I don't want to see it extended to other things once we're past the pandemic phase. "Hey, we're gonna use it for the flu now, or just to get an idea of who you hang around with".
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What Danglars and Vivax said is exactly one of the issues. Especially the quote "Hey, we're gonna use it for the flu now, or just to get an idea of who you hang around with" raises alarm bells in the heads of many people in western countries. We have a quite recent history of having fascism and thenof defeating fascism. We're being taught in school what led to it and how we escaped it. The quote above highlights perfectly the things that we're afraid of. And if you think the coronavirus is a horror show, wait until you live under fascism or communism - you're going to wish you had chosen the virus instead.
These fears are very justified. So please if you would just realize that saying "we should be more like China" is a very scary thing to hear for us.
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On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote:
What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already. It would work if the numbers are low enough but because of the many reasons listed previously the West rarely got that low in case numbers that individual contact tracing would be as useful.
And it runs into the very same problem. It works if people use it and take it seriously, it doesn't work if everyone has it but doesn't listen to it.
And yes the different views is probably almost entirely what makes this so different, We don't like being told what to do, we don't like the idea of a Big Brother app tracking where we go, despite our phones and social media already tracking us anyway.
If there is such a thing as to much freedom is a difficult discussion with probably no right answer but this pandemic does highlight a weakness in Western society.
Once upon a time I looked towards the varies zombie/other plague stories as unrealistic. 'We' wouldn't be that stupid in letting it spread, but now, yeah. Seems totally believable. People are that stupid.
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On November 23 2020 18:54 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote:
What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already. It would work if the numbers are low enough but because of the many reasons listed previously the West rarely got that low in case numbers that individual contact tracing would be as useful. And it runs into the very same problem. It works if people use it and take it seriously, it doesn't work if everyone has it but doesn't listen to it. And yes the different views is probably almost entirely what makes this so different, We don't like being told what to do, we don't like the idea of a Big Brother app tracking where we go, despite our phones and social media already tracking us anyway. If there is such a thing as to much freedom is a difficult discussion with probably no right answer but this pandemic does highlight a weakness in Western society. Once upon a time I looked towards the varies zombie/other plague stories as unrealistic. 'We' wouldn't be that stupid in letting it spread, but now, yeah. Seems totally believable. People are that stupid.
wat
For content:
Saw a CT of an ICU patient today. Looked nasty and like the damage would be partially permanent at least.
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On November 23 2020 18:54 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote:
What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already. It would work if the numbers are low enough but because of the many reasons listed previously the West rarely got that low in case numbers that individual contact tracing would be as useful. And it runs into the very same problem. It works if people use it and take it seriously, it doesn't work if everyone has it but doesn't listen to it. And yes the different views is probably almost entirely what makes this so different, We don't like being told what to do, we don't like the idea of a Big Brother app tracking where we go, despite our phones and social media already tracking us anyway. If there is such a thing as to much freedom is a difficult discussion with probably no right answer but this pandemic does highlight a weakness in Western society. Once upon a time I looked towards the varies zombie/other plague stories as unrealistic. 'We' wouldn't be that stupid in letting it spread, but now, yeah. Seems totally believable. People are that stupid.
I do hope that people would react differently to a virus that a 100000000% will kill you opposed to the > 0,1% death rate we have now.
Topic: Afraid what will happen around X-mas and New Years. Pushback from the people will probably be tenfold to what we have now regaring lockdowns and distancing from family and friends
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On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote:
What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already.
I like the idea, so long as it's done carefully and with transparency. There's a difference between an intelligence agency using a backdoor to some system to keep track of users without any public knowledge and a government tracking policy with a clear mandate, explicit tools and built-in checks to prevent abuse. Accoutability is key in this, and I would never advocate this for a non-democratic government or put it under established agencies that are known to eskew their own country's norms.
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On November 23 2020 21:27 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2020 18:54 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2020 11:43 DucK- wrote:
What are you guys opinion on the mandatory usage of contact tracing apps?
In Singapore, we have something called TraceTogether. Basically it is a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to communicate with other devices with the same app. It records that you have been in close proximity with device A (belonging to person A). All these data is stored in your own phone only. In the event that you have covid, you're required to provide these data to the authorities. They will then only know the list of devices (and in turn the list of people) who you have been in closed contact with.
Another contact tracing mechanism we have is mandatory checking in and out using our ID (or app) whenever we enter a venue. Basically it logs a time frame that you're present in a particular venue. For example if I want to go to McDonald's in a mall, I will check in to the mall, and then check in to mcdonald's. Staff of shops are required to ensure people check in before they can enter.
The main reason I ask is because there seems to be different views from the western side and from us. I think the west values freedom and do not like to be 'forced' to comply with measures, especially when privacy is concerned. For us, we're fine because it's for the greater good. We have had ZERO locally transmitted case for 12 consecutive days already. It would work if the numbers are low enough but because of the many reasons listed previously the West rarely got that low in case numbers that individual contact tracing would be as useful. And it runs into the very same problem. It works if people use it and take it seriously, it doesn't work if everyone has it but doesn't listen to it. And yes the different views is probably almost entirely what makes this so different, We don't like being told what to do, we don't like the idea of a Big Brother app tracking where we go, despite our phones and social media already tracking us anyway. If there is such a thing as to much freedom is a difficult discussion with probably no right answer but this pandemic does highlight a weakness in Western society. Once upon a time I looked towards the varies zombie/other plague stories as unrealistic. 'We' wouldn't be that stupid in letting it spread, but now, yeah. Seems totally believable. People are that stupid. I do hope that people would react differently to a virus that a 100000000% will kill you opposed to the > 0,1% death rate we have now. Topic: Afraid what will happen around X-mas and New Years. Pushback from the people will probably be tenfold to what we have now regaring lockdowns and distancing from family and friends
The IFR is closer to 1%, with a hospitalization rate around 5%. That means 5% death rate of things spiral out of control the way they did in Italy or New York, without taking into account all the deaths resulting from people not being treated for other things.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.30.20223461v1
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