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So I guess he's officially more competent than Trump?
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On November 01 2020 08:42 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:So I guess he's officially more competent than Trump?
No.
Wales did exactly this a week ago already, so it's not like he's making a decision here - he's forced to do so because other countries in the UK already did this at least a week ago.
Second, he's responsible for massive amounts of layoffs last week because he did wait until the day the furlough scheme ran out to extend it, forcing companies to lay off people because they didn't know whether or not they could continue to pay for them.
It's an absolute shitshow, led by the most unfit government i've ever seen. That includes Trump/republicans. Tories are even less competent.
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Northern Ireland25875 Posts
On November 01 2020 12:04 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2020 08:42 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:So I guess he's officially more competent than Trump? No. Wales did exactly this a week ago already, so it's not like he's making a decision here - he's forced to do so because other countries in the UK already did this at least a week ago. Second, he's responsible for massive amounts of layoffs last week because he did wait until the day the furlough scheme ran out to extend it, forcing companies to lay off people because they didn't know whether or not they could continue to pay for them. It's an absolute shitshow, led by the most unfit government i've ever seen. That includes Trump/republicans. Tories are even less competent.
I wouldn’t go quite that far.
This current situation is a mess and, really I’d prefer a national strategy over a devolved one.
I’m not sure what’s going on really. While not perfect I think Rishi Sunak did a pretty job in mitigating damage and establishing structures like the furlough scheme during the first wave. Indeed the rare scenario where I felt compelled to give a Conservative political credit occurred.
In recent times, everything seems a fucking mess. I’ve heard it said that Sunak’s generally well-perceived performance caused Johnson to take more a hands-on role in things in an attempt to stifle the potential growth of a future leadership rival.
I have no idea if that’s true or not, but of late things haven’t been run well
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Austria here. We're going into a soft 4-week lockdown, same as Germany. The allowable number of people entering a shop has been raised to 1 person per 10m². A number of other changes are also coming.
As I expected the mask mandates made things worse because they gave people a false sense of security, causing them to socially distance less rather than more. Also, 1 or 2 meter distance in shops was obviously insufficient, who woulda thunk. Complete geniuses at work up there running our country since day 1. They deserve some bad karma.
On the bright side I expect the infection rate to start declining in about 3-4 weeks.
Don't expect a vaccine to bring us back to a normal life anytime soon. It'll likely take maybe 10-15 more months or so until development finishes and then at least several more years until herd immunity finally starts to kick in. So in one of the worse cases we're talking maybe up to 5-6 more years of this madness before things start to look up. Absolute best case 3 years.
This won't kill the economy, but it could get very tough for many lower and middle class people. Do not invest in any costly liabilities right now! That new playstation can wait, it's not giving money to small businesses anyway. Better invest in your local markets, they need to stay afloat somehow.
Stay healthy everyone. Maintain hygiene, eat healthy food, work out frequently, get sunlight. Most of all, keep distance. This is no joke anymore, we've all seen the consequences.
Wishing you all good luck.
PS: Don't listen to conspiracy theorists or fearmongers on either side. We're all scared and annoyed, so lets stick to the known facts and not make things worse.
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On November 01 2020 16:56 Magic Powers wrote:
Don't expect a vaccine to bring us back to a normal life anytime soon. It'll likely take maybe 10-15 more months or so until development finishes and then at least several more years until herd immunity finally starts to kick in. So in one of the worse cases we're talking maybe up to 5-6 more years of this madness before things start to look up. Absolute best case 3 years.
How do you come up with these numbers while at the same time asking us to stick to the facts? It is well documented that at least three companies are very close to finishing their last clinical trial which means it is rather likely we will have an approved vaccine ready by December/January, granted only in very small numbers. However, Pfizer alone expects to be able to produce up to a billion doses per year, so I see no reason why most of the richer countries shouldn't have 60% of their population vaccinated by mid-late 2021.
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Those aren't my numbers, virologists themselves warn of false optimism. If you read up on how vaccines work, their effectiveness can vary from anywhere between 20-70%. Not just that, but it's a consistent hunt after new virus strains (effectively new strains, not just any), so more vaccines will have to be developed. Also, reaching herd immunity takes quite a long time without social distancing orders, so people will have to continue to do social distancing.
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On November 01 2020 18:22 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2020 16:56 Magic Powers wrote:
Don't expect a vaccine to bring us back to a normal life anytime soon. It'll likely take maybe 10-15 more months or so until development finishes and then at least several more years until herd immunity finally starts to kick in. So in one of the worse cases we're talking maybe up to 5-6 more years of this madness before things start to look up. Absolute best case 3 years. How do you come up with these numbers while at the same time asking us to stick to the facts? It is well documented that at least three companies are very close to finishing their last clinical trial which means it is rather likely we will have an approved vaccine ready by December/January, granted only in very small numbers. However, Pfizer alone expects to be able to produce up to a billion doses per year, so I see no reason why most of the richer countries shouldn't have 60% of their population vaccinated by mid-late 2021.
Also just giving the doses to risk groups and healthcare workers means that the first doses will be the most effective ones. 30 % vaccination rate could probably cut deaths and ICU use by 80-90 % or and hospitalization rate by half.
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Life was more or less normal this past Summer in Europe with the low incidence we had. I think many experts ask for caution because it'll take a relatively long time to get fully rid of the virus, ie. facemasks might continue to be a thing for most of 2021 and no kiss-on-the-cheek greetings for us southern europeans.
There are 11 or 12 vaccines in phase 3 efficacy trials, and with cases surging, there's plenty of reason to believe we'll see results soon. Many already started a few months ago, so it seems they are relatively safe given the relative lack of news on that front.
Even if we only have limited doses by Q1 2021 for the high-risk groups, plus better standard-of-care and new treatments, plus the fact that a big chunk of the populations will have been infected by March (judging from the massive number of cases right now), I think it's a reasonable to expect that life will be pretty much back to normal by next Summer.
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On November 01 2020 19:07 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2020 18:22 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:On November 01 2020 16:56 Magic Powers wrote:
Don't expect a vaccine to bring us back to a normal life anytime soon. It'll likely take maybe 10-15 more months or so until development finishes and then at least several more years until herd immunity finally starts to kick in. So in one of the worse cases we're talking maybe up to 5-6 more years of this madness before things start to look up. Absolute best case 3 years. How do you come up with these numbers while at the same time asking us to stick to the facts? It is well documented that at least three companies are very close to finishing their last clinical trial which means it is rather likely we will have an approved vaccine ready by December/January, granted only in very small numbers. However, Pfizer alone expects to be able to produce up to a billion doses per year, so I see no reason why most of the richer countries shouldn't have 60% of their population vaccinated by mid-late 2021. Also just giving the doses to risk groups and healthcare workers means that the first doses will be the most effective ones. 30 % vaccination rate could probably cut deaths and ICU use by 80-90 % or and hospitalization rate by half.
I believe this is what Faucci suggested a while ago. He said vaccines will go first to medical staff and vulnerable people, then to anyone else.
Edit: What makes this China stuff incredibly weird is they don't report a lot of cases despite 1.4 billion population.
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On November 01 2020 14:43 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2020 12:04 m4ini wrote:On November 01 2020 08:42 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:So I guess he's officially more competent than Trump? No. Wales did exactly this a week ago already, so it's not like he's making a decision here - he's forced to do so because other countries in the UK already did this at least a week ago. Second, he's responsible for massive amounts of layoffs last week because he did wait until the day the furlough scheme ran out to extend it, forcing companies to lay off people because they didn't know whether or not they could continue to pay for them. It's an absolute shitshow, led by the most unfit government i've ever seen. That includes Trump/republicans. Tories are even less competent. I wouldn’t go quite that far. This current situation is a mess and, really I’d prefer a national strategy over a devolved one.
Two things. First you'd need to make the (quite generous) assumption that the british government is actually able to come up with a national approach. Which it clearly isn't, considering the british government didn't even talk to the devolved governments in weeks/months.
Second: clearly, no. I don't know which part of britain you're from, i'm from wales. I certainly do not want a strategy forced on this country by someone who's course of action is determined by where he "gets the most likes". Not in a million years.
I’m not sure what’s going on really. While not perfect I think Rishi Sunak did a pretty job in mitigating damage and establishing structures like the furlough scheme during the first wave. Indeed the rare scenario where I felt compelled to give a Conservative political credit occurred.
If you don't know what's going on, that's on you. It's pretty clear for anyone to see. Lets start with Rishi Sunak, who did in fact do an atrocious job and is directly (or at least as much as trump BJ) responsible for every sector of the economy being in shambles, confused, and in need to lay off people just in case the government stops helping them. Because lets be very clear, not only was the system from the get go inferior to the systems in place in countries like germany (a system we much later adopted), we also wait until the very last day (literally, the day they're scheduled to run out) to extend these systems, leaving companies the choice between either trusting them to do the right thing or preventative laying off people to survive.
If you're running a company knowing that business right now sucks, and you can barely afford to pay your employees with the Kurzarbeit scheme, do you wait until the day it runs out to make the decision to lay off folks?
In recent times, everything seems a fucking mess. I’ve heard it said that Sunak’s generally well-perceived performance caused Johnson to take more a hands-on role in things in an attempt to stifle the potential growth of a future leadership rival.
I have no idea if that’s true or not, but of late things haven’t been run well
Of late?
I mean.. I get that you're trying to be non-combative, but at some point you just call the shitshow by its name. Tories. Things haven't been run shitty "as of late", ever since corbyn gifted them that landslide victory, things have been shitty. Not a single good thing happened. Not one. Starting from how the government handled and still handles Brexit, to now how they handled the pandemic. And even that on multiple levels, they not only failed the citizens, they failed business, they failed the NHS, pretty much literally everything they touched went to shit one way or another.
Just trying to be nice about it doesn't cut it, they're not toddlers that need to be babied - they're playing with the livelyhood (and literally lives) of people.
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On November 02 2020 07:23 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On November 01 2020 19:07 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On November 01 2020 18:22 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:On November 01 2020 16:56 Magic Powers wrote:
Don't expect a vaccine to bring us back to a normal life anytime soon. It'll likely take maybe 10-15 more months or so until development finishes and then at least several more years until herd immunity finally starts to kick in. So in one of the worse cases we're talking maybe up to 5-6 more years of this madness before things start to look up. Absolute best case 3 years. How do you come up with these numbers while at the same time asking us to stick to the facts? It is well documented that at least three companies are very close to finishing their last clinical trial which means it is rather likely we will have an approved vaccine ready by December/January, granted only in very small numbers. However, Pfizer alone expects to be able to produce up to a billion doses per year, so I see no reason why most of the richer countries shouldn't have 60% of their population vaccinated by mid-late 2021. Also just giving the doses to risk groups and healthcare workers means that the first doses will be the most effective ones. 30 % vaccination rate could probably cut deaths and ICU use by 80-90 % or and hospitalization rate by half. I believe this is what Faucci suggested a while ago. He said vaccines will go first to medical staff and vulnerable people, then to anyone else. Edit: What makes this China stuff incredibly weird is they don't report a lot of cases despite 1.4 billion population.
I do believe they have managed to contain it in the urban part of the country, thanks to new technologies + being a police state. However I don't believe a single bit that they've managed to contain it in the rural part of China.
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Minneapolis/St. Paul has almost completely filled its ICU capacity. Emergency rooms are also filling up, with 4-6 at a time being on divert (closed to ambulances) at a time. Transfers between hospitals are mostly frozen and emergency room patients are often waiting for up to a day for a bed to open in any hospital in the metro area.
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In Denmark we have a production of Mink furs, we have trough longer time be struggling with convid in minks. Now the goverment have decided to stop the product of all minks and terminate all Minks in Denmark. Because they have discovered a mutation of corvid among Minks in part of the country. This could be a new epicenter for Convid and effect the effectiveness of vaccines in development. No need to worry about this mutation as it is being handled
Link
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On November 05 2020 01:49 Sapaio wrote:In Denmark we have a production of Mink furs, we have trough longer time be struggling with convid in minks. Now the goverment have decided to stop the product of all minks and terminate all Minks in Denmark. Because they have discovered a mutation of corvid among Minks in part of the country. This could be a new epicenter for Convid and effect the effectiveness of vaccines in development. No need to worry about this mutation as it is being handled Link
That's deeply upsetting; I'm a big fan of mink fur and it just sounds like a whole lot of it going to waste.
Although, the mink-borne spread sounds really frightening, so I see why it's being done. Doesn't seem like Denmark is alone here.
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On November 05 2020 04:44 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 01:49 Sapaio wrote:In Denmark we have a production of Mink furs, we have trough longer time be struggling with convid in minks. Now the goverment have decided to stop the product of all minks and terminate all Minks in Denmark. Because they have discovered a mutation of corvid among Minks in part of the country. This could be a new epicenter for Convid and effect the effectiveness of vaccines in development. No need to worry about this mutation as it is being handled Link That's deeply upsetting; I'm a big fan of mink fur and it just sounds like a whole lot of it going to waste. Although, the mink-borne spread sounds really frightening, so I see why it's being done. Doesn't seem like Denmark is alone here.
For me, it's scary that we put down a million or even billion industry not sure to be honest. But what about other countries not to brag but think we have one of the highest degrees of control and actions in Denmark But i am cared of countries not doing test on farm animals in close breeding or having steps to prevent such mutations from getting out of control
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On November 05 2020 01:49 Sapaio wrote:In Denmark we have a production of Mink furs, we have trough longer time be struggling with convid in minks. Now the goverment have decided to stop the product of all minks and terminate all Minks in Denmark. Because they have discovered a mutation of corvid among Minks in part of the country. This could be a new epicenter for Convid and effect the effectiveness of vaccines in development. No need to worry about this mutation as it is being handledLink
I'm not as confident. It's entirely possible that this strain has already spread to other parts of Denmark or even the world. Only 12 human infections have been confirmed, but they estimate that ~5% of the active cases (in humans) in the northern jutland region (the epicentre of infected mink farms), are this particular strain.
I'm not saying one should worry, but the situation could still escalate in spite of government efforts.
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On November 05 2020 07:18 Alur wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 01:49 Sapaio wrote:In Denmark we have a production of Mink furs, we have trough longer time be struggling with convid in minks. Now the goverment have decided to stop the product of all minks and terminate all Minks in Denmark. Because they have discovered a mutation of corvid among Minks in part of the country. This could be a new epicenter for Convid and effect the effectiveness of vaccines in development. No need to worry about this mutation as it is being handledLink I'm not as confident. It's entirely possible that this strain has already spread to other parts of Denmark or even the world. Only 12 human infections have been confirmed, but they estimate that ~5% of the active cases (in humans) in the northern jutland region (the epicentre of infected mink farms), are this particular strain. I'm not saying one should worry, but the situation could still escalate in spite of government efforts.
Statens Serum institute (Danish equivalent to CDC) has confirmed a mutation in mink that has been found in humans that does not react as it should to current vaccine data.
Bit of googling that I found. That's scary as fuck, because if there's a second strain when we haven't even found a vaccine for the first, I don't know what we'll do. Could just write off 2021 as well if it spreads too far.
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You'd have missed it in the noise of everything else that happened, but this has been the deadliest day of the coronavirus on record, with 9k deaths and 571k new infections (also 2nd highest on record). Probably not for long since it's clear that we will set new records throughout the coming winter.
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EPT
