EPTThat's probably why the calls for a renewed lockdown are growing and why even Trump's public health advisors are sounding increasingly troubling alarms about what is to come. There's not a lot of ways to look at the data and conclude that things are trending towards resolution, unless that's the a priori conclusion you're trying to justify.
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
That's probably why the calls for a renewed lockdown are growing and why even Trump's public health advisors are sounding increasingly troubling alarms about what is to come. There's not a lot of ways to look at the data and conclude that things are trending towards resolution, unless that's the a priori conclusion you're trying to justify. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On August 05 2020 00:29 JimmiC wrote: I was attempting to show that it is still getting worse in places and also that Florida still currently is the worst per capita in the USA, while you were saying they have it under control. You sited one LA county and extrapolated that story to 4 states. I would hope after pass misses you would reassess your own biases, I guess not. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/04/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/ The average hospitalization sat at around 1800 from April to June. It's peak was a little over 10k. it is now at 8819. Almost 5x does not seem like it is passing to me. Slightly better sure, and thank goodness but hold your horses cowboy. The new cases and positivity dipped and now is going up again. And even the dip was way higher than than back in April. https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.256103307.1837531628.1596553893-1722863452.1596553893 Florida is breaking their death highs records as recent as Friday. And if you look back at the curve there is often dips on Sunday and Monday as it takes time for the staff to make the reports. They also had a hurricane which probably made reporting difficult and also people stay inside. I think it premature to say it is over, when they are still adding 5000!! cases. That 5000 is somehow good is scary. https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/08/03/florida-reports-fewer-than-5000-coronavirus-cases-monday-73-deaths/ The California Governor disagree's with your hot take that it is passing. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-02/california-cases-accelerate-birx-sees-new-phase-virus-update Arizona is doing much better than it has been, probably the best of the states you mentioned but still not passed and still very worrisome. Which is the reason schools might not reopen. “Encouraging signs” and “signs that it’s passing” is a semantics argument. I’m surprised you even brought it up. I make no rush to “open it all now” or whatever you think would be premature. I extrapolate nothing. I look at the state dashboards and sometimes aggregation sites that pull from them. Deaths lag cases, so pointing to them as some new topic is fruitless. They had a case spike, since passed, so they’re going through a death spike. These states, with possible extension to Georgia and Louisiana, were previously singled out here and elsewhere for their governors responses. Sometimes quite viciously. Pointing out the denouement, and retrospectives or things learned from hospital surge capacity and spreading case spikes across multiple hospitals, is a very good thing to do. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On August 05 2020 00:20 LegalLord wrote: There isn't really much justification for optimism if you look at the US data in any detail. The positivity rate isn't exactly all that great (and "lower positivity rates" is something argued since March, often right before things got a lot worse, making it a questionable metric), the death rate has been rising for a while, and even plateauing at 50-70k cases is not such a fantastic upside. Last time we had a plateau at 20-30k cases after the first few states put down a sharp exponential, and then it came back stronger than ever. Not that sustained 50k is a good number even if that could hold. I'd hope we'd have learned the lessons from last time and avoided any "it's not bad enough" assessments that become invalid within a month, that could have been prevented with painful but necessary measures. That's probably why the calls for a renewed lockdown are growing and why even Trump's public health advisors are sounding increasingly troubling alarms about what is to come. There's not a lot of ways to look at the data and conclude that things are trending towards resolution, unless that's the a priori conclusion you're trying to justify. Coronavirus is a regional phenomenon in the US. So I don’t see much benefit claiming to look at the details, then looking a national totals. States that screwed up big at the beginning and killed off their elderly are basically fine now, some states are seeing their first wave or second wave end, and some states are in the middle of their first wave. Some states never even shut down. There is no federal response, there’s 50 state responses. If you want details, go into states and group them according to their current and past trends. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On August 04 2020 22:48 JimmiC wrote: We don't have the same number of Anti-maskers up here in Canada (funny it rhymes with anti-vaxxer and there is over lap) but they do exist and there is now a lot of facebook posts with "my body my choice" and shirts as well. Too your point about it being convenient is there is also a HUGE overlap between the my body my choice and being against pro-choice when it comes yo abortion. It is quite strange that the blatant logical incongruity does not register. Especially when even the wording is so close. I wonder if after we get back to "normal" this can be brought up, or will it just never register? edit: Also NPR has some polls showing most American's support government measures on Covid. https://www.npr.org/2020/08/04/898522180/despite-mask-wars-americans-support-aggressive-measures-to-stop-covid-19-poll-fi Anti-maskers, while a problem, are a red herring that conveniently fit into what mass media want to think about the virus. The reality is that from March15-May15, the time period where governments had a chance (and from my POV their only chance) to do lockdowns right. The anti-masker movement didn't really exist. And yet, still, no US state got caseloads low enough in that 2 month period to be able to do follow up responses. Oh, and by the way, while its funny to see an old white guy getting tackled by Wal Mart security for not wearing a mask, what's a bigger C19 risk? One guy not wearing a mask in Wal Mart for 20 minutes, or the 50%+ of "essential workers" at Wal Mart that don't know how to wear a mask and think its a chin decoration? That is the problem all arguments must address. If you can't, you fail, end of discussion. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
On August 05 2020 03:52 cLutZ wrote: Anti-maskers, while a problem, are a red herring that conveniently fit into what mass media want to think about the virus. The reality is that from March15-May15, the time period where governments had a chance (and from my POV their only chance) to do lockdowns right. The anti-masker movement didn't really exist. And yet, still, no US state got caseloads low enough in that 2 month period to be able to do follow up responses. Oh, and by the way, while its funny to see an old white guy getting tackled by Wal Mart security for not wearing a mask, what's a bigger C19 risk? One guy not wearing a mask in Wal Mart for 20 minutes, or the 50%+ of "essential workers" at Wal Mart that don't know how to wear a mask and think its a chin decoration? That is the problem all arguments must address. If you can't, you fail, end of discussion. Anti-mask was a huge problem in April. I was trying to get friends to wear masks in April and it was a disaster. So many idiots. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On August 05 2020 04:22 JimmiC wrote: It was low enough in March -may that they just needed to institute social distancing and encourage mask usage with aggressive contract tracing that many of the hot spots now wouldn't exist. It is a red herring to say that anti-maskers didn't exist, they just were not vocal because not many governments in the USA were promoting masks let alone making rules around them. At the that time the anti-maskers were still calling it the kung-flu, a hoax, caused by 5g and so on. The demographic absolutely did exist and with social media you can probably look back at those people and see why they were blaming back then, I bet it was as inaccurate as it is now, just a slightly different target. Demographically, the stats say that most of the spread during that time period was way different than the stereotypical anti-masker. Even if the contributed a small percentage, the same measures that would have worked on the majority of spreaders would have worked on them, but there is no political will to do such measures. If you don't think this was happening back then, then you don't live in a major city or you are blind. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
On August 05 2020 04:37 cLutZ wrote: Demographically, the stats say that most of the spread during that time period was way different than the stereotypical anti-masker. Even if the contributed a small percentage, the same measures that would have worked on the majority of spreaders would have worked on them, but there is no political will to do such measures. If you don't think this was happening back then, then you don't live in a major city or you are blind. Where exactly are you getting numbers saying anti-mask wasn't a big part of initial spread? Anti-mask was prevalent towards the end of march. Convincing my friends to wear a mask April 4 was a disaster. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On August 05 2020 05:04 Mohdoo wrote: Where exactly are you getting numbers saying anti-mask wasn't a big part of initial spread? Anti-mask was prevalent towards the end of march. Convincing my friends to wear a mask April 4 was a disaster. Anti-mask as a political movement is associated with old-right wingers. IIRC that is absolutely not your friend group, which, is similar to what I expected March-May. While NOW its associated with a political movement, then it was associated with lack of risk assessment and impulse control. Which I also associated with criminality, which is why above I said only low criminality jurisdictions will end up doing well when they open. If you live in a higher crime general area, you already knew about people not socially distancing and not wearing masks in March-May, and if you said then that lockdowns weren't going to work because of that, plus so many of the "essential workers" also being low-intelligence low-impulse control (here or elsewhere I talked about a grocery store worker touching everything in the aisles right when lockdowns began) people ignored you. Now when people say the same plan will suffer the same flaws...people try to pretend you are a quack. The problem from my perspective is that the public health experts are in a bubble with other upper middle class people and they are making plans that would work if everyone was an educated upper middle class person. I understand this to an extent, all my friends are always talking about masks and being socially distant. I don't personally know anyone who got C19 after March. Fauci and Birx probably don't either. Meanwhile, in the real world, a dude got caught robbing a gas station 4-5 blocks from where I live. He wasn't wearing a mask, which is how cops picked him up like 10 minutes later. Think on that. A person who was mandated by law to conceal his identity, failed to do so during a strong arm robbery. Your plan needs to account for this guy and people who are like him, just you know, not the most idiotic. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10811 Posts
Seriously? None of you knows shit. Just because some libertarian/right wing assholes tell you that it's all a hoax/bad/not dire makes you do this? I don't get it. One of my best friends father died from this shit. I didn't know him, never saw him but seeing people arguing about if "measures" are ok or not is just such a retarded and stupid exercise on FREEDOM or whatever BS you put ahead.. it's just moronic. Either we try to solve this and it will hurt, it will for sure, or we don't and more people will die.... OR YOU FUCKING GROW UP and do what the scientific consencus sais at the moment and I don't give a fuck if that consensus changes tomorrow, neither you nor I am qualified or in a position to question it. Oh, and i hope you assholes that spout your right/freedom/whatever just die. For the greater good, your ignorance is killing people. fuck you. User was warned for this post | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21961 Posts
On August 05 2020 06:17 cLutZ wrote: I don't necessarily associate the anti-mask crowd with old people. A lot was also younger people complaining they couldn't go to the hair salon or the gym.Anti-mask as a political movement is associated with old-right wingers. IIRC that is absolutely not your friend group, which, is similar to what I expected March-May. While NOW its associated with a political movement, then it was associated with lack of risk assessment and impulse control. Which I also associated with criminality, which is why above I said only low criminality jurisdictions will end up doing well when they open. If you live in a higher crime general area, you already knew about people not socially distancing and not wearing masks in March-May, and if you said then that lockdowns weren't going to work because of that, plus so many of the "essential workers" also being low-intelligence low-impulse control (here or elsewhere I talked about a grocery store worker touching everything in the aisles right when lockdowns began) people ignored you. Now when people say the same plan will suffer the same flaws...people try to pretend you are a quack. The problem from my perspective is that the public health experts are in a bubble with other upper middle class people and they are making plans that would work if everyone was an educated upper middle class person. I understand this to an extent, all my friends are always talking about masks and being socially distant. I don't personally know anyone who got C19 after March. Fauci and Birx probably don't either. Meanwhile, in the real world, a dude got caught robbing a gas station 4-5 blocks from where I live. He wasn't wearing a mask, which is how cops picked him up like 10 minutes later. Think on that. A person who was mandated by law to conceal his identity, failed to do so during a strong arm robbery. Your plan needs to account for this guy and people who are like him, just you know, not the most idiotic. The militia brandishing machine guns in Michigan back in April didn't look to be mostly the elderly. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/lock-her-anti-whitmer-coronavirus-lockdown-protestors-swarm-michigan-capitol-n1184426 | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
An update on the situation. The raw amount of people who tested positive has increased around 2 to 3-fold in the last month. Our R peaked to an estimated 1.4 around ten days ago, and looks to be trending a liiiiittle bit lower this week. Positive testing rates are increasing but are still around 1.5%, which is still quite low. I am somewhat concerned but not that much yet, because France ramped up testing considerably this past month, and our hospital and ICU admissions remain stable (around 120 hospital check-ins and 15 ICU cases a day). With people exiting those services, the amount of people has slowly stopped decreasing, but is not increasing. I'm not counting deaths because they tend to lag behind, but are still stable at 10-15/day. I am still worried because people tend to care less these days, and take more risks, and gatherings of >5000 people will be authorized again next month, with a seat in-between (so I guess, no festivals, it's at least something). Probably for football and such, but we are still on a very slippery slope... it is risky. Data is here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA and on the "suivi des tests" tab We are still at the point in time when being more serious with health measures, and maybe enforcing mask outside in risky area might be sufficient to keep us low. We shall see... | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16105 Posts
I was terrified of what would happen if he got it because of all of his other medical issues. He caught it because a coworker's husband contracted it and it made its way into his office. As simple as that. | ||
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Furikawari
France2522 Posts
On August 07 2020 04:06 Nouar wrote: So, France. An update on the situation. The raw amount of people who tested positive has increased around 2 to 3-fold in the last month. Our R peaked to an estimated 1.4 around ten days ago, and looks to be trending a liiiiittle bit lower this week. Positive testing rates are increasing but are still around 1.5%, which is still quite low. I am somewhat concerned but not that much yet, because France ramped up testing considerably this past month, and our hospital and ICU admissions remain stable (around 120 hospital check-ins and 15 ICU cases a day). With people exiting those services, the amount of people has slowly stopped decreasing, but is not increasing. I'm not counting deaths because they tend to lag behind, but are still stable at 10-15/day. I am still worried because people tend to care less these days, and take more risks, and gatherings of >5000 people will be authorized again next month, with a seat in-between (so I guess, no festivals, it's at least something). Probably for football and such, but we are still on a very slippery slope... it is risky. Data is here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA and on the "suivi des tests" tab We are still at the point in time when being more serious with health measures, and maybe enforcing mask outside in risky area might be sufficient to keep us low. We shall see... I agree that the raise in numbers seems to originate from the larger testing for the most part. One day we will have more useful stats like positive tests per tested or stuff like that, but our dumb journalists still prefer raw numbers (even cases per inhabitants is dumb as it is directly linked to the number of tests...). Anyway, hopefully those numbers will remind people that it's still not over. @Velr: everyday is a remainder that their first amendment is pure bullshit. | ||
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
"Schools will only be as safe as the community in which they operate," the superintendent said. At least the kids cant spread it guys. | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On August 05 2020 06:19 Velr wrote: It's so friggin dumb that you guys are still discussing shit... What's there to discuss? Seriously? None of you knows shit. Just because some libertarian/right wing assholes tell you that it's all a hoax/bad/not dire makes you do this? I don't get it. One of my best friends father died from this shit. I didn't know him, never saw him but seeing people arguing about if "measures" are ok or not is just such a retarded and stupid exercise on FREEDOM or whatever BS you put ahead.. it's just moronic. Either we try to solve this and it will hurt, it will for sure, or we don't and more people will die.... OR YOU FUCKING GROW UP and do what the scientific consencus sais at the moment and I don't give a fuck if that consensus changes tomorrow, neither you nor I am qualified or in a position to question it. Oh, and i hope you assholes that spout your right/freedom/whatever just die. For the greater good, your ignorance is killing people. fuck you. User was warned for this post Yeah, we need to put the people who care about freedom someplace, maybe, I don't know, like camps or something. For the greater good, of course. People die all the time and we make risk:benefit assessments all the time. We don't outlaw driving which kills and injures hundreds of thousands a year, again, a grave externality. We deem however that transportation is a benefit worth the risk. Likewise, we can't shut down society writ whole. That's insane. Maybe if it was the Justinian plague, I could see it, but for this? No. You're letting your emotions dictate your response. If you want a majority of people to follow guidelines and recommendations honey gets you more than vinegar (and vinegar in this case is Government enforcement, fines, jail, etc. - you're just going to get more pushback and non-compliance, like say, a teen would do if you told them not to smoke and if they did they'd be kicked out of the house). If you want to live under a scientific technocratic dictatorship that's fine, but don't be surprised when some people aren't so keen (never mind that here in the US it seems like the people wielding this power aren't so benevolent - if you're one of them (a D or R) you're good to go, but if you are not, well, no Church for you, no protest for you, no XYZ that is part of the out group). (And before you go on another emotional tirade I have had friends parents die as well, it sucks but that doesn't justify the pain of a Great Depression II or worse - never mind no one ever cares to actually do the utilitarian leg work with the increased suicides, domestic violence, depression, anxiety, fear, etc. That's harm and death too) | ||
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