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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On June 30 2020 18:36 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2020 18:22 Slydie wrote:Edit: The other problem are that idiots exist everywhere. There’s another Texas household who has a surprise 30th birthday where they didn’t properly social distance. Whole cluster of close to 20 ended up catching it with 3 (?) elderly family members sent straight to the hospital all because one guy refused to believe he caught the disease and his cough was just work related. They were aware of the virus, I believe the cancer survivor of the family stood outside. From memory the only reason we know about the cluster outbreak is because one of the family members didn’t go because she was in the medical field and knew it was super stupid. This is a pretty typical situation which should have been avoided. The spreader was NOT asympthomatic and when there are a lot of active cases in a region, you should not throw a party like that. Even limiting the party to 10 people would have helped a lot. I believe the virus almost always spreads in obvious ways with close contact indoors over time, not by farfetched ones, like a random cough when shopping or in the streets. Some other supid events include the multiple outbreaks in religous services, beer pong in the Swiss Alps and a food-sharing among youth in Sweden. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.nrk.no/urix/sverige_-koronasmitte-etter-lek-med-mat-og-frykt-for-smitte-under-midtsommerfestene-1.15060476 (Norwegian) ehhh Slydie you do realize that the CNN report from the Alps is from March right? And describes how Ischgl became the centre of the spread, which at least every European and probably most of the world population already know 
Yes, I know, it was just random stupid and obvious ways the virus has spread to illustrate a point.
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Yes, local responses seems like the best way to deal with this short to medium term. Unfortunately, broad neglect or harsh measures have been the norm so far. As for governments, very general rules are easier to implement, some times causing outrage in regions with less problems.. I just hope that local politicians do not do stupid things like less testing to underplay their situation.
The expected effect of different measures should be clearer as time goes by, but there are still many unknowns, and the effects may vary greatly between countries and regions.
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On June 30 2020 23:28 JimmiC wrote:The EU is opening up for Travel for 14 countries. Show nested quote +The countries are Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay.
Show nested quote +China has also been provisionally approved, although travel would only open up if Chinese authorities also allowed in EU visitors. Reciprocity is a condition of being on the list. Show nested quote +Russia, Brazil and Turkey, along with the United States, are among countries whose containment of the virus is considered worse than that of the EU average and so will have to wait at least two weeks. The bloc will carry out fortnightly reviews. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/coronavirus/2020/06/30/Coronavirus-EU-allows-travel-from-14-countries-excludes-United-States
I don't think we are going to open the border up to the U.S. until 2021 lol... I really feel bad for all you Americans right now. Hearing your governors speak is very cringe-worthy. It's like watching a genocide happen right before your eyes.
They focus too much on 'Freedom' and 'let's jump start the economy' before putting other people's lives first. Too much of a rush and it's only going to hurt more.
I will be praying for all of you.
On July 02 2020 05:28 Slydie wrote:Yes, local responses seems like the best way to deal with this short to medium term. Unfortunately, broad neglect or harsh measures have been the norm so far. As for governments, very general rules are easier to implement, some times causing outrage in regions with less problems.. I just hope that local politicians do not do stupid things like less testing to underplay their situation. The expected effect of different measures should be clearer as time goes by, but there are still many unknowns, and the effects may vary greatly between countries and regions.
Here's an idea.. which will never happen lol. How about putting all the people who do not want to follow safety measure and put them all in one State for example, where they cannot get 'real health care' and let's see what happens.
I'd love to hear if they might adopt safety measures then. It's amazing how fast ones tune can change too as soon as they have someone close to them die.
I don't know about you guys.. if there is every a zombie apocalypse I'm getting myself a boat. I might stop by New Zealand.
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The problem with the states is unless a vaccine is available, there's going to be at least one state in the USA with an outbreak that is far above internationally acceptable levels. The variable level of competence in state procedures for handling coronavirus means that unless everyone gets it under control, forcefully, there's nothing that states that have it under control can do.
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On June 30 2020 23:28 JimmiC wrote:The EU is opening up for Travel for 14 countries. Show nested quote +The countries are Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay.
Show nested quote +China has also been provisionally approved, although travel would only open up if Chinese authorities also allowed in EU visitors. Reciprocity is a condition of being on the list. Show nested quote +Russia, Brazil and Turkey, along with the United States, are among countries whose containment of the virus is considered worse than that of the EU average and so will have to wait at least two weeks. The bloc will carry out fortnightly reviews. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/coronavirus/2020/06/30/Coronavirus-EU-allows-travel-from-14-countries-excludes-United-States
The reciprocity requirement seems like a big catch. A lot of those countries have much lower rates than Europe and will be reluctant to pop their bubbles.
It's nice to be on the list, but I don't see Australia/NZ borders reopening till mid next year, personally.
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The list is not all that serious i think,its more of a token.
Its only closed for non essential travel wich is a kinda broad description and open to interpretation. Some countries will be strict,others not so much and once you are in the eu you are free to go everywhere,
There are a lot of american flights coming into europe every day,it has never been fully halted.
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So it looks like Sweden is finally starting to come to terms with the failure of its policy. It's certainly not suffering as bad as some other countries, but it's quite bad for one as well-positioned as Sweden. Looks like they assembled a commission to reevaluate its response; lockdowns are probably going to follow.
STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden on Tuesday announced a commission to evaluate its response to the novel coronavirus, reacting to criticism over a death toll that has far exceeded that of its neighbours.
More than 5,300 Swedes have died compared to around 250 in Norway, 600 in Denmark and 325 in Finland, all of which have populations around half the size.
Sweden, unlike the rest of Scandinavia, chose not to close schools and businesses to fight the spread of the virus.
“It is not a question of whether Sweden is going to change as a result of this - the question is how,” Prime Minister Stefan Lofven told a news conference.
Source
Notable to me is that for all the obvious problems of the strategy, it doesn't seem to have come with any meaningful benefits. Economy still tanks, but now more people are infected and the most effective strategies that involve early and aggressive testing are too late to be implemented. A complete and utter "too early to tell" failure.
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I think the USA starting to outstrip testing capacity again.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/arizona
They're at 51k new cases, and a number of states (Arizona, Florida) are well above 10% positive rates in the last couple days. Arizona is ~21% 7 day moving average, Florida is at 16%, Texas is at 15%, Georgia is at 13%.
We've seen from a lot of places that if you don't test enough to get the positive test rate to within the neighbourhood of 5%, that Covid is spreading rapidly in an uncontrolled manner. New York is around 1.1% 7 day moving avg for positive tests, and Michigan is at 2.2%.
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On July 02 2020 09:56 LegalLord wrote:So it looks like Sweden is finally starting to come to terms with the failure of its policy. It's certainly not suffering as bad as some other countries, but it's quite bad for one as well-positioned as Sweden. Looks like they assembled a commission to reevaluate its response; lockdowns are probably going to follow. Show nested quote +STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Sweden on Tuesday announced a commission to evaluate its response to the novel coronavirus, reacting to criticism over a death toll that has far exceeded that of its neighbours.
More than 5,300 Swedes have died compared to around 250 in Norway, 600 in Denmark and 325 in Finland, all of which have populations around half the size.
Sweden, unlike the rest of Scandinavia, chose not to close schools and businesses to fight the spread of the virus.
“It is not a question of whether Sweden is going to change as a result of this - the question is how,” Prime Minister Stefan Lofven told a news conference. SourceNotable to me is that for all the obvious problems of the strategy, it doesn't seem to have come with any meaningful benefits. Economy still tanks, but now more people are infected and the most effective strategies that involve early and aggressive testing are too late to be implemented. A complete and utter "too early to tell" failure.
The problem with coronavirus is that there’s no real way to rescue the hospitality industry except provide subsidies in the meantime. You can’t make people risk their health to go to a restaurant or resort, they have to want to go to these places. A hands off approach to coronavirus works if few people get sick and those that are sick do the right thing but you can’t trust people to not be morons as we saw in that surprise 30th birthday in Texas or those kids in Alabama who had a coronavirus party where first person diagnosed with coronavirus wins the pot of money.
The closest thing to a solution is to smash the virus down quickly, enforce (legally or through social shaming) masks and let the industries operate at a regulated but lower level. After the disaster that occurred in New York City, people have self enforced community compliance where not wearing a mask gets you socially shamed out of the establishment. This should at least be the norm everywhere.
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On July 02 2020 11:38 StalkerTL wrote:
The closest thing to a solution is to smash the virus down quickly, enforce (legally or through social shaming) masks and let the industries operate at a regulated but lower level. After the disaster that occurred in New York City, people have self enforced community compliance where not wearing a mask gets you socially shamed out of the establishment. This should at least be the norm everywhere.
This reminds me of a news story i read yesterday where a barista in starbucks told a customer to put on a mask, otherwise she can't come in and won't be served. The customer made a sneaky photo of the barista and tried to shame him on Facebook for not serving her. In a nice turn of events pretty much everyone on Facebook shamed the customer instead for beeing "incredible stupid" (I think most of the comments were R-rated but you get the gist)
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On July 02 2020 16:17 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2020 11:38 StalkerTL wrote:
The closest thing to a solution is to smash the virus down quickly, enforce (legally or through social shaming) masks and let the industries operate at a regulated but lower level. After the disaster that occurred in New York City, people have self enforced community compliance where not wearing a mask gets you socially shamed out of the establishment. This should at least be the norm everywhere. This reminds me of a news story i read yesterday where a barista in starbucks told a customer to put on a mask, otherwise she can't come in and won't be served. The customer made a sneaky photo of the barista and tried to shame him on Facebook for not serving her. In a nice turn of events pretty much everyone on Facebook shamed the customer instead for beeing "incredible stupid" (I think most of the comments were R-rated but you get the gist)
It just keeps coming back to those masks, doesn't it? It is the most visible and one of the most dramatic measures, but far from the most important nor the most effective.
Medical personell have some very troublesome routines for wearing and removing protective gear safely, which barely anyone follows in public.
I have no idea know how accurate they are, but Worldometers has implemented some projections which compares different scenarios. They show "universal masks" to make little to no difference in areas where the number of deaths is very low and under control, but more and more effective the more severe the current situation is. I do not agree that only singeling out "universal masks" and "easing" is a good way to go, though. They could also show models for full lockdowns, travel restrictions, closing bars/restaurants, complete reopening including mass events etc. The models would probably be about as inaccurate anyway.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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On July 02 2020 19:04 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2020 16:17 Harris1st wrote:On July 02 2020 11:38 StalkerTL wrote:
The closest thing to a solution is to smash the virus down quickly, enforce (legally or through social shaming) masks and let the industries operate at a regulated but lower level. After the disaster that occurred in New York City, people have self enforced community compliance where not wearing a mask gets you socially shamed out of the establishment. This should at least be the norm everywhere. This reminds me of a news story i read yesterday where a barista in starbucks told a customer to put on a mask, otherwise she can't come in and won't be served. The customer made a sneaky photo of the barista and tried to shame him on Facebook for not serving her. In a nice turn of events pretty much everyone on Facebook shamed the customer instead for beeing "incredible stupid" (I think most of the comments were R-rated but you get the gist) It just keeps coming back to those masks, doesn't it? It is the most visible and one of the most dramatic measures, but far from the most important nor the most effective. Medical personell have some very troublesome routines for wearing and removing protective gear safely, which barely anyone follows in public. I have no idea know how accurate they are, but Worldometers has implemented some projections which compares different scenarios. They show "universal masks" to make little to no difference in areas where the number of deaths is very low and under control, but more and more effective the more severe the current situation is. I do not agree that only singeling out "universal masks" and "easing" is a good way to go, though. They could also show models for full lockdowns, travel restrictions, closing bars/restaurants, complete reopening including mass events etc. The models would probably be about as inaccurate anyway. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Well, masks and distance are about the only measures still in place, so I would say they are actually quite important. And so fucking easy to follow. And they will not crash the economy or anything else. Peoples ignorance and stupidity is just incredible. So I am all for social shaming
Obviously in an area with low /no cases a mask or any measure doesn't make a difference. But I have noticed that cases of common cold or summer flu are almost none existent, too. (personal observation, no source yet)
This is the influence of masks/ distance as well.
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On July 02 2020 20:19 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2020 19:04 Slydie wrote:On July 02 2020 16:17 Harris1st wrote:On July 02 2020 11:38 StalkerTL wrote:
The closest thing to a solution is to smash the virus down quickly, enforce (legally or through social shaming) masks and let the industries operate at a regulated but lower level. After the disaster that occurred in New York City, people have self enforced community compliance where not wearing a mask gets you socially shamed out of the establishment. This should at least be the norm everywhere. This reminds me of a news story i read yesterday where a barista in starbucks told a customer to put on a mask, otherwise she can't come in and won't be served. The customer made a sneaky photo of the barista and tried to shame him on Facebook for not serving her. In a nice turn of events pretty much everyone on Facebook shamed the customer instead for beeing "incredible stupid" (I think most of the comments were R-rated but you get the gist) It just keeps coming back to those masks, doesn't it? It is the most visible and one of the most dramatic measures, but far from the most important nor the most effective. Medical personell have some very troublesome routines for wearing and removing protective gear safely, which barely anyone follows in public. I have no idea know how accurate they are, but Worldometers has implemented some projections which compares different scenarios. They show "universal masks" to make little to no difference in areas where the number of deaths is very low and under control, but more and more effective the more severe the current situation is. I do not agree that only singeling out "universal masks" and "easing" is a good way to go, though. They could also show models for full lockdowns, travel restrictions, closing bars/restaurants, complete reopening including mass events etc. The models would probably be about as inaccurate anyway. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Well, masks and distance are about the only measures still in place, so I would say they are actually quite important. And so fucking easy to follow. And they will not crash the economy or anything else. Peoples ignorance and stupidity is just incredible. So I am all for social shaming Obviously in an area with low /no cases a mask or any measure doesn't make a difference. But I have noticed that cases of common cold or summer flu are almost none existent, too. (personal observation, no source yet) This is the influence of masks/ distance as well.
Many countries have beaten the virus using other measures (actually including Spain which did not have the supplies back in March/April), so masks in public should only be considered a supplement in very special or serious situations.
Also consider:
-Covering your face up has MAJOR social consequences, I would go as far as to say extensive use lowers quality of life significantly.
-It turns everybody into a "beware of the virus" sign, making people worried.
-Wearing them for extended periods is very uncomfortable.
-Having a conversation with a bit of background noice can be outright impossible, so the only solution is often to remove the mask or move very closely.
-People tend to relax on the distance when wearing the masks.
-People put them on and off and store them as they please, usually without cleaning their hands, so the masks themselves can pass on the virus.
-They offer no guarantee for not passing it on to others and has minimal effect for getting the virus yourself.
-Research about when they are actually effective is still inconclusive.
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On July 02 2020 21:43 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2020 20:19 Harris1st wrote:On July 02 2020 19:04 Slydie wrote:On July 02 2020 16:17 Harris1st wrote:On July 02 2020 11:38 StalkerTL wrote:
The closest thing to a solution is to smash the virus down quickly, enforce (legally or through social shaming) masks and let the industries operate at a regulated but lower level. After the disaster that occurred in New York City, people have self enforced community compliance where not wearing a mask gets you socially shamed out of the establishment. This should at least be the norm everywhere. This reminds me of a news story i read yesterday where a barista in starbucks told a customer to put on a mask, otherwise she can't come in and won't be served. The customer made a sneaky photo of the barista and tried to shame him on Facebook for not serving her. In a nice turn of events pretty much everyone on Facebook shamed the customer instead for beeing "incredible stupid" (I think most of the comments were R-rated but you get the gist) It just keeps coming back to those masks, doesn't it? It is the most visible and one of the most dramatic measures, but far from the most important nor the most effective. Medical personell have some very troublesome routines for wearing and removing protective gear safely, which barely anyone follows in public. I have no idea know how accurate they are, but Worldometers has implemented some projections which compares different scenarios. They show "universal masks" to make little to no difference in areas where the number of deaths is very low and under control, but more and more effective the more severe the current situation is. I do not agree that only singeling out "universal masks" and "easing" is a good way to go, though. They could also show models for full lockdowns, travel restrictions, closing bars/restaurants, complete reopening including mass events etc. The models would probably be about as inaccurate anyway. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Well, masks and distance are about the only measures still in place, so I would say they are actually quite important. And so fucking easy to follow. And they will not crash the economy or anything else. Peoples ignorance and stupidity is just incredible. So I am all for social shaming Obviously in an area with low /no cases a mask or any measure doesn't make a difference. But I have noticed that cases of common cold or summer flu are almost none existent, too. (personal observation, no source yet) This is the influence of masks/ distance as well. Many countries have beaten the virus using other measures (actually including Spain which did not have the supplies back in March/April), so masks in public should only be considered a supplement in very special or serious situations. Also consider: -Covering your face up has MAJOR social consequences, I would go as far as to say extensive use lowers quality of life significantly. -It turns everybody into a "beware of the virus" sign, making people worried. -Wearing them for extended periods is very uncomfortable. -Having a conversation with a bit of background noice can be outright impossible, so the only solution is often to remove the mask or move very closely. -People tend to relax on the distance when wearing the masks. -People put them on and off and store them as they please, usually without cleaning their hands, so the masks themselves can pass on the virus. -They offer no guarantee for not passing it on to others and has minimal effect for getting the virus yourself. -Research about when they are actually effective is still inconclusive. the 'other measures' are often full scale lockdowns which are simply not sustainable.
Lockdowns helped defeat wave one but are not sustainable, so we need something else to prevent a second wave.
Doing nothing extra and just coming out of lockdown appears, from mostly anecdotal evidence I have seen around the internet, to not prevent a second wave. Israel for example appears to have this issue.
Masks + distancing in some combination appear to be successful so far in preventing a second wave.
There are differences between the level of mask use and whether mandating it everywhere vs situations where distance can't be kept is a debatable point but some level of mask use appears to be needed.
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On July 02 2020 21:43 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2020 20:19 Harris1st wrote:On July 02 2020 19:04 Slydie wrote:On July 02 2020 16:17 Harris1st wrote:On July 02 2020 11:38 StalkerTL wrote:
The closest thing to a solution is to smash the virus down quickly, enforce (legally or through social shaming) masks and let the industries operate at a regulated but lower level. After the disaster that occurred in New York City, people have self enforced community compliance where not wearing a mask gets you socially shamed out of the establishment. This should at least be the norm everywhere. This reminds me of a news story i read yesterday where a barista in starbucks told a customer to put on a mask, otherwise she can't come in and won't be served. The customer made a sneaky photo of the barista and tried to shame him on Facebook for not serving her. In a nice turn of events pretty much everyone on Facebook shamed the customer instead for beeing "incredible stupid" (I think most of the comments were R-rated but you get the gist) It just keeps coming back to those masks, doesn't it? It is the most visible and one of the most dramatic measures, but far from the most important nor the most effective. Medical personell have some very troublesome routines for wearing and removing protective gear safely, which barely anyone follows in public. I have no idea know how accurate they are, but Worldometers has implemented some projections which compares different scenarios. They show "universal masks" to make little to no difference in areas where the number of deaths is very low and under control, but more and more effective the more severe the current situation is. I do not agree that only singeling out "universal masks" and "easing" is a good way to go, though. They could also show models for full lockdowns, travel restrictions, closing bars/restaurants, complete reopening including mass events etc. The models would probably be about as inaccurate anyway. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Well, masks and distance are about the only measures still in place, so I would say they are actually quite important. And so fucking easy to follow. And they will not crash the economy or anything else. Peoples ignorance and stupidity is just incredible. So I am all for social shaming Obviously in an area with low /no cases a mask or any measure doesn't make a difference. But I have noticed that cases of common cold or summer flu are almost none existent, too. (personal observation, no source yet) This is the influence of masks/ distance as well. Many countries have beaten the virus using other measures (actually including Spain which did not have the supplies back in March/April), so masks in public should only be considered a supplement in very special or serious situations. Also consider: -Covering your face up has MAJOR social consequences, I would go as far as to say extensive use lowers quality of life significantly. -It turns everybody into a "beware of the virus" sign, making people worried. -Wearing them for extended periods is very uncomfortable. -Having a conversation with a bit of background noice can be outright impossible, so the only solution is often to remove the mask or move very closely. -People tend to relax on the distance when wearing the masks. -People put them on and off and store them as they please, usually without cleaning their hands, so the masks themselves can pass on the virus. -They offer no guarantee for not passing it on to others and has minimal effect for getting the virus yourself. -Research about when they are actually effective is still inconclusive.
Spain ? Full lockdown, and almost everyone wearing masks regardless if they were mandatory or not (which they are). You are not taking into account the psychological aspect that it has on people when it comes to keep social distancing, etc. And we go again to the same silly discussion, even if they don't prevent you from getting the disease, you are not spreading the droplets.
-It turns everybody into a "beware of the virus" sign, making people worried.
How is that a bad thing ?
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Slydie should be ignored, he’s obsessed with downplaying the effectiveness of masks and hasn’t changed his tune in months. His cavalier attitude towards the little things that everyone can do speaks volumes about the collateral damage that has and will be done by folks desperate for reasons to not change their behavior.
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On July 02 2020 23:15 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +-It turns everybody into a "beware of the virus" sign, making people worried. How is that a bad thing ?
It conflicts with his other point, that people wearing masks "tend to relax on the distance." It's just the ramblings of a discontent.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
Certain person(s) initially thought that 100k deaths was a reasonable worst case scenario with COVID, so I wouldn't necessarily place a lot of stock in their evaluation of the COVID situation.
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EPT
