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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On March 06 2020 18:54 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2020 18:45 deacon.frost wrote:On March 06 2020 18:32 opterown wrote:On March 06 2020 12:12 KwarK wrote:On March 06 2020 11:52 Nevuk wrote:On March 06 2020 11:44 KwarK wrote:On March 06 2020 11:40 GreenHorizons wrote:
I'm thinking about just treating it like Chicken Pox and getting it over with. Just in case it does start to morph into something more dangerous at least my antibodies won't be starting from scratch.
One of the medical field folks can tell me if that's old wives' tale logic. What you’re saying you’d like to have is called a vaccination. Not quite - a vaccine is more like getting cow pox to prevent small pox (ie getting a milder form of the illness). GH is talking about how some parents will purposefully expose their kids to chickenpox if one of their friends gets it in order to have them get it under more controlled circumstances. I'm sure there's a medical term for that idea, but I also have no idea if it's good. I think it's a bit different, as chicken pox(the classic example where it happens) is much harsher on adults than children so there's some rationale. I'm pretty sure purposefully exposing yourself to coronavirus isn't a good idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pox_party(Reading up on it, it was the pre-vaccine method of treatment to a super contagious disease, but was never advised by doctors? A doctor will have to chime in for more detail) Getting Coronavirus early before the hospitals are flooded and when treatment is a priority is absolutely rational. On the other hand, getting it later when we have a better idea of the natural history of the disease and some idea of what treatments work (or don't) also makes a lot of sense. Also in many cases the evolution of the virus goes into less lethal form as then it spreads more and is able to survive longer. Which may not be the case here, just saying it usually goes the optimistic path. It's been floating (meaning infected people) around long and close enough that I can't even definitively say I haven't been exposed, so it may be a moot point. Anyone know if there is or will be a test that would show if I had already had it and recovered?
Serology would be this test, but I don't think anyone has developed a good serological assay yet. I know that in Australia we are collecting serum (as well as swabs for PCR) so we can investigate serology once we have a suitable assay.
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With at least one potentially positive case in NYC and at least one potentially positive case in New Jersey, tons of school districts and even colleges in my area are spreading smart reminders of how to maximize safety and cleanliness, and trying to avoid mass panic. That being said, schools are certainly an easy place to infect others.
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Northern Ireland22208 Posts
On March 06 2020 18:57 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2020 18:54 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 06 2020 18:45 deacon.frost wrote:On March 06 2020 18:32 opterown wrote:On March 06 2020 12:12 KwarK wrote:On March 06 2020 11:52 Nevuk wrote:On March 06 2020 11:44 KwarK wrote:On March 06 2020 11:40 GreenHorizons wrote:
I'm thinking about just treating it like Chicken Pox and getting it over with. Just in case it does start to morph into something more dangerous at least my antibodies won't be starting from scratch.
One of the medical field folks can tell me if that's old wives' tale logic. What you’re saying you’d like to have is called a vaccination. Not quite - a vaccine is more like getting cow pox to prevent small pox (ie getting a milder form of the illness). GH is talking about how some parents will purposefully expose their kids to chickenpox if one of their friends gets it in order to have them get it under more controlled circumstances. I'm sure there's a medical term for that idea, but I also have no idea if it's good. I think it's a bit different, as chicken pox(the classic example where it happens) is much harsher on adults than children so there's some rationale. I'm pretty sure purposefully exposing yourself to coronavirus isn't a good idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pox_party(Reading up on it, it was the pre-vaccine method of treatment to a super contagious disease, but was never advised by doctors? A doctor will have to chime in for more detail) Getting Coronavirus early before the hospitals are flooded and when treatment is a priority is absolutely rational. On the other hand, getting it later when we have a better idea of the natural history of the disease and some idea of what treatments work (or don't) also makes a lot of sense. Also in many cases the evolution of the virus goes into less lethal form as then it spreads more and is able to survive longer. Which may not be the case here, just saying it usually goes the optimistic path. It's been floating (meaning infected people) around long and close enough that I can't even definitively say I haven't been exposed, so it may be a moot point. Anyone know if there is or will be a test that would show if I had already had it and recovered? Serology would be this test, but I don't think anyone has developed a good serological assay yet. I know that in Australia we are collecting serum (as well as swabs for PCR) so we can investigate serology once we have a suitable assay.
My company has developed an IgG/IgM rapid test. We've only managed to test it against 20 positive specimens (from patients confirmed by PCR) and the IgG component returned a positive result in all 20 specimens. However at this time we haven't been able to get specimens from those who have had the disease and have recovered. Out of those 20 positive specimens, three did test negative for the IgM part. We're following up to ascertain when the blood specimens were taken from them, vs when they were diagnosed using PCR.
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There have been multiple confirmed cases of re-infection so 'getting it early' on purpose seems like a pretty silly thing to do, never mind that it is an incredibly unpleasant disease to suffer through, and with plenty of possible long-term (or even life-long) after-effects.
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Number of infected people doubled again in Belgium today, from 50 to 109.
No measures yet.
I find it funny how our newspapers have articles about China/Italy fucking up when we're headed in a very similar direction without doing anything.
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On March 06 2020 20:02 Salazarz wrote:
There have been multiple confirmed cases of re-infection so 'getting it early' on purpose seems like a pretty silly thing to do, never mind that it is an incredibly unpleasant disease to suffer through, and with plenty of possible long-term (or even life-long) after-effects.
Do you have a recent source saying that because I've heard the opposite reported?
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Here is Reuters
A woman working as a tour bus guide was reinfected with the coronavirus, testing positive after having recovered from an earlier infection, Osaka’s prefectural government said. Her case, the first known of in Japan, highlighted how much is still unknown about the virus even as concerns grow about its global spread.
Business Insider reported the following and cited a Japanese government statement, but the link seems to be dead.
This timeline shows her first and second infections, according to the Osaka government:
January 29: She tests positive for the first time. According to NHK, she had been on a bus with tourists from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus first broke out.
February 1: She is discharged from the hospital.
February 6: She is declared virus-free.
February 19: She goes the doctor with throat and chest pains, and is sent home afterward.
February 21, 22, and 25: She visits the doctor three more times with throat and chest pains.
February 26: She test positive for the second time.
Between February 19 and 26, she wore a mask, stayed home to rest, and had no close contact with anyone, the Osaka government said. She is now being treated in an Osaka hospital, NHK reported.
These types of viruses are known to mutate fairly rapidly. It wouldn't be unheard of, for the same reason you can get the flu two years in a row, but it seems fairly unlikely for the average person.
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Pretty sure there have been 3 chinese cases with reinfected people as well. Also there are already 2 different types known now according to chinese scientists
see: www.cnbc.com
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
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Yeah I guess so, thanks for the link.
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It's interesting to see the way the scientific community is having to reinvent the peer-review process to deal with the speed of the event, while at the same time having every preliminary report picked up by the media as SCIENCE HAS PROVEN.
It doesn't affect my field but I'd be taking most studies on covid with a grain of salt at the moment.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On March 06 2020 21:03 Belisarius wrote:
It's interesting to see the way the scientific community is having to reinvent the peer-review process to deal with the speed of the event, while at the same time having every preliminary report picked up by the media as SCIENCE HAS PROVEN.
It doesn't affect my field but I'd be taking most studies on covid with a grain of salt at the moment.
Yeah, I've been hounding the literature for the past couple of weeks and the articles are certainly more rushed, even in the supposed "best" journal NEJM. It's incredibly scanty and we essentially can be confident of nothing with COVID. However, something is better than nothing when you're involved in COVID, but everyone needs to critically assess the information out there (easier said than done for laypeople).
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Looking through those links I only see the Japanese woman and chinese reportss for which I think the reporting I heard/saw was based off something like this from Wired
Which basically says that the proof is inconclusive but they are keeping an eye on reports. I guess I'll hold off for now and wait to catch it the old fashioned way (inadvertently).
On March 06 2020 21:08 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2020 21:03 Belisarius wrote:
It's interesting to see the way the scientific community is having to reinvent the peer-review process to deal with the speed of the event, while at the same time having every preliminary report picked up by the media as SCIENCE HAS PROVEN.
It doesn't affect my field but I'd be taking most studies on covid with a grain of salt at the moment. Yeah, I've been hounding the literature for the past couple of weeks and the articles are certainly more rushed, even in the supposed "best" journal NEJM. It's incredibly scanty and we essentially can be confident of nothing with COVID. However, something is better than nothing when you're involved in COVID, but everyone needs to critically assess the information out there ( easier said than done for laypeople).
Yup, appreciate the info
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I'm more worried about possible long-term effects than the acute disease.
Many viruses can cause additional problems, 10 years is a good average (measles, hiv). EBV lymphoma and HPV cervix cancer.
Usually to find those out you can infect modified animals with super short lifespans, wonder if anyone's tried that yet with this one.
Either way, governments didn't even flinch when the first reports of this thing came through twitter around the end of Jan. One month later they aknowledged it. It's sad.
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I don't get infecting yourself on purpose. You aren't guaranteed to get it eventually, going through it isn't nice and the danger you present to your fellows is immense. Oh and the medical staff treating you will be very thankful for that stupid selfish thing you're doing...
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On March 06 2020 21:41 schaf wrote:
I don't get infecting yourself on purpose. You aren't guaranteed to get it eventually, going through it isn't nice and the danger you present to your fellows is immense. Oh and the medical staff treating you will be very thankful for that stupid selfish thing you're doing...
Yeah. Plus seeking out an infectious case is not particularly easy. On top of that, it seems like we're not talking measles/chicken pox levels of infectiousness here-you could make out with someone in the transmission phase of coronavirus and you still might not catch the disease to any sort of pseudo-vaccinating extent. And there's a good chance that even if you do catch it, you won't be able to tell, so you'll keep trying to catch it and possibly spread it in the meantime.
If you're worried about future mutations, if the viruses mutate enough to become much more lethal to "healthy" people (which this family of viruses don't typically do from the discussion medical symposium I attended; this isn't the flu) there is a meaningful chance their antigenicity has changed to the extent your inoculation didn't do anything anyway.
Right now the return on effort for any type of self-inoculation seems pretty negative to me.
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On March 06 2020 22:11 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2020 21:41 schaf wrote:
I don't get infecting yourself on purpose. You aren't guaranteed to get it eventually, going through it isn't nice and the danger you present to your fellows is immense. Oh and the medical staff treating you will be very thankful for that stupid selfish thing you're doing... Yeah. Plus seeking out an infectious case is not particularly easy. On top of that, it seems like we're not talking measles/chicken pox levels of infectiousness here-you could make out with someone in the transmission phase of coronavirus and you still might not catch the disease to any sort of pseudo-vaccinating extent. And there's a good chance that even if you do catch it, you won't be able to tell, so you'll keep trying to catch it and possibly spread it in the meantime. Right now the return on effort for any type of self-inoculation seems very low.
I'm fine with that and was just looking for some info to that effect because as I said, it has been circulating in my area for a while without anyone knowing (and before people were talking about it really) so I can't definitively say I haven't already been through it. I'm so used to working through symptoms I wouldn't even remember getting a little sick during that time. Same goes for a lot of the people I organize with.
Hence the questions about whether I could potentially find out if I had ever had it and whether there were reliable reinfection rates
Be nice to know I'm not at risk for spreading it or getting reinfected for me personally because I don't want to abandon the people I organize with or put them in any unnecessary risk. So I feel obligated to have some idea of what people in similar situations can do. Not like I've been licking handrails and was asking whether I can sell my spit as a cure  .
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Russian Federation421 Posts
On February 29 2020 19:42 Ingvar wrote:
Moscow, Russia.
There is nothing here yet but rumors about COVID-2019 are a popular discussion topic. The city would be pretty fucked though in case of epidemics because of extreme density of population and reliance on metro for transportation. I am fortunate enough that I could easily switch to working from home if allowed but it is not a possibility for a lot of people.
I have a holiday in France planned in a week and I really hope nothing happens during this time so I can fly there without problems. I don’t mind getting stuck in France though =)
Yesterday’s evening Moscow government posted a list of countries such that you have to spend 14 days in quarantine at home after returning from them. The list is rather large - China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Norway, Great Britain, USA. This is unacceptable to me at the moment so I had to postpone my trip to May this morning while having tickets for a flight this evening. Needless to say that was a rather stressful experience.
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okay.. the virus is in my city now..
FUCK!
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On March 07 2020 02:51 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
okay.. the virus is in my city now..
FUCK!
Wash your hands often and don't touch your face while you're out of the house. Eat healthy, don't drink too much and you'll likely be just fine!
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EPT
