EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 15
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
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Vivax
22277 Posts
![[image loading]](https://media0.giphy.com/media/84BjZMVEX3aRG/giphy.gif) Maybe the dollar bubble is bursting, can't even view the 10Y t-bill chart Either way considering how interconnected everything is I don't think a crash will be tradable. Everything will blow up. See you @ bitcoin, US and russian mining companies. But only actual stock and not contracts. | ||
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lastprobeALIVE
United States974 Posts
I got in FNGU@28$ a share, its 103$ now. I'll only hold TVIX for a week tops | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
On February 23 2020 09:01 lastprobeALIVE wrote: I have done well the past year with this strategy, TVIX if market dropping and FNGU if market steam rolling. I got in FNGU@28$ a share, its 103$ now. I'll only hold TVIX for a week tops (FNGU): MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (TVIX): VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN wallstreetbets right here...let us know if you get wiped out | ||
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lastprobeALIVE
United States974 Posts
On February 23 2020 09:55 CorsairHero wrote: (FNGU): MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (TVIX): VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN wallstreetbets right here...let us know if you get wiped out I’m sharing my success story and you’re just a douche. | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
Those kinds of leveraged securities is exactly what /r/wallstreetbets uses. FNGU dropped 15% today so i guess that cuts into your "success" story a little. What is your trigger to switch to TVIX? Are you doing it after today? Most people only share their success stories. You rarely hear about the failures of which there is plenty of when you play in that space. | ||
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Vivax
22277 Posts
Currently chilling on Newmont gold corp. stock and a small amount of tesla puts. Don't forget that if a banking crisis occurs, there's a counterparty risk with options, so pick your issuing bank well (I chose GS *crosses fingers*). Could arguably also be an opportunity to BTD, considering the DAX support always held since Nov, but what's the point when gold is going berserk. And I've read that miners make profits when the price falls cause they build the relevant short positions to grab the juiciest prices to sell at. (and produce the collateral) | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
Any strategy you guys recomend to when buy the dip? -5%? -10% ? By chunks? I don't want to buy in at 5% and then it dropping another 15% before settling. It wouldn't be the worse in the world as I am interested on staying long term, but obv want to maximize this opportunity. | ||
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Vivax
22277 Posts
On February 26 2020 04:11 CorsairHero wrote: Instead of just saying your moves, it would be more beneficial to explain what your strategy and algorithms are that others can actually benefit from and use. This isn't some LR thread I assume. Strategy: Buy gold stocks (which are something you own and not a contract of obligation, so even if the holding bank defaults, they are still yours). Chose US gold miner for the following point. Expect the dollar to strengthen further and be last man standing among currencies, which is why countries who don't want to keep their imposed ties with the US buy a shitton of gold, while for the US it's more important that their treasuries + currency are the safe haven. Ultimately this'll lead to hulk-like dollars buying up foreign economies, unless they put measures in place. Short the green bubble with small positions. Sadly you can't short stocks directly nowadays, it's all contracts and I'd expect the future to bring serious fallout for EU banks. I think we're looking at a future with isolated China + Russia economies who sit on lots of resources, while EU + JP + US aim at being tech leaders (but are already boned and drained dry imho lol). That said, I'd rather want a monetary system that doesn't rely on endless debt. The fed is in a lose-lose situation. If yields go negative, US treasuries become a gigantic dollar magnet into the US, which is why the dollar is strengthening. If they raise rates, the stock market crashes and you can kiss the dollar goodbye. What do you think they will do? Buffett sits on a mountain of dollars so he seems to be expecting further rate cuts. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
The uncertainty is way to high and the difference between the worst and the best scenario is huge. (not an advise btw,you have to make your own decissions and noone knows what market will do coming weeks,today could be the best day to buy who knows). https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/mohamed-el-erian-continues-to-warn-against-buying-coronavirus-dips.html 20k is enough to trade but trading is very difficult and only very few people can make consistent money with it. If you have 30 year horizon then you can pretty much invest at any moment though most people spread out their buys when investing (for example for their pension). They buy a little bit every month,that way you will get an average price that is decent. Its not the best price but its not the worst price either. | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
On February 26 2020 04:32 GoTuNk! wrote: I don't have enough to trade, but I have a lot of cash (upwards of 20k) that I was hoping to put into an sp500 fund when a dip like the current one came (which also protects me from my local currency losing value). Any strategy you guys recomend to when buy the dip? -5%? -10% ? By chunks? I don't want to buy in at 5% and then it dropping another 15% before settling. It wouldn't be the worse in the world as I am interested on staying long term, but obv want to maximize this opportunity. 1. Statistically you're better off doing lump sum investing which is buying it all at once. If you feel uncomfortable you can dollar cost average in but that is a form of market timing which doesn't really work. 2. I wouldn't go for an sp500 fund if that's your equity portion because that isn't diversified enough. Go for a global equity fund if that is available. While many s&p 500 get income globally, it's not the same as owning companies outside the US. Even if you had more cash, why trade? I don't think that's the way to build wealth for the vast majority of individuals. If you had a method of determining valuations then you can invest in companies that are cheap and stay long term in them but that isn't trading. Again, almost all (90%+) funds who stock pick can't beat the index so why bother if the "pros" can't? | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Thats interesting and goes against the consensus of a lot of people,do you have a source for this statistic? @below:TY! | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGDCA.pdf A lot of people think they can time based on emotions like in the news when it comes to ebola, brexit and now coronavirus but for people who are building wealth long term.... it's pretty irrelevant. Even if someone has an algorithm, emotions will factor in as to whether they can make the move or not. It's one of the factors why the index returns destroy the returns of personal investors/traders. On February 26 2020 05:19 pmh wrote: @below:TY! You're welcome. Clearly I'm more on the long term investor side compared to traders here but I'm willing to see their case. I also don't want someone whose reading this thread thinking that getting into trading is the way to build wealth when they're starting. At best I would suggest that no more than 10% of an entire portfolio to be dedicated to trading to scratch that itch of buying Tesla or whatever. The rest of it better be fixed income and global equity indexes | ||
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Vivax
22277 Posts
They really are financial WMDs. My personal opinion is that stocks like Tesla have gotten a lot of money through passive investing that would have been better allocated elsewhere than in an oversaturated car market. | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
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KwarK
United States43854 Posts
On February 26 2020 06:09 Vivax wrote: I think passive investing is a big problem nowadays. It makes this whole house of cards more manageable, but distorts the picture. Even during a crisis there's stocks to be bound to go up on better prospectives for that situation, but in heavily capitalized ETFs, every stock included is dragged down on heavy selling, and crappy companies seem more valuable than they are. Not to mention they don't give you ownership of the underlying, which makes you vulnerable to contract emittent defaults and currency shocks. They really are financial WMDs. My personal opinion is that stocks like Tesla have gotten a lot of money through passive investing that would have been better allocated elsewhere than in an oversaturated car market. Tesla isn’t a component of VOO and other similar funds. There’s been a lot of trading of Tesla lately because of the expectation that it will break into the SP500 and promptly get bought by passive SP500 tracking funds. So no, passive funds aren’t buying Tesla. Active funds are buying Tesla because they think soon passive funds might start buying Tesla. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-fuel-for-tesla-stock-could-join-the-sp-500-by-the-end-of-the-year-2020-01-30 | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
On February 26 2020 04:11 CorsairHero wrote: Instead of just saying your moves, it would be more beneficial to explain what your strategy and algorithms are that others can actually benefit from and use. This isn't some LR thread I assume. Are you asking what my general strategies in trading are? If so, I trade purely on technicals. My methods of technical analysis are wyckoff, wave theory, volume-spread analysis, channeling, supply and demand, price action, order flow, price action, and others (but named are main) If youre asking why I did what I did with Tesla, I explained it in post 236, where I first stated that I would be scouting for sell setups. I bought puts near the internal top at around 940 and sold them today because, although I do think further downside is possible, I was happy with my profits and didn't want to risk giving back through a reversal, and would rather try to build a long position here where it is very easy for me to manage risk around the 780 area | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
I didn't buy calls, because I think it could range a bit for now if not continue dumping, but I'm just sayin. not financial advice | ||
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