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South American Politics thread - Page 46

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Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-11-12 09:29:21
November 12 2019 02:00 GMT
#901
On November 12 2019 10:56 Nebuchad wrote:...
What do you think of the quality of his post? Does it serve any purpose?

I'd have to watch the video he was replying to for context and I don't really want to do that.

EDIT: Noticed an edit on the previous page later.
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 12 2019 10:56 Nebuchad wrote:...
If your framing of events includes the dude having to lose, why care about the democratic process?

He was at 45% vs 36% before any of the allegations of fraud happened. There is no indication that he should be losing this in order for fairness to be achieved.

I did not intend to imply that framing (my intention is clearer in the context of the preceding sentence). The point is that it's harder for me to condemn the pressure exerted by the military when (a) it's not obvious to me that Morales was entitled to remain in power and (b) given the preceding point it's not obvious to me that any lesser action would have sufficed to remove him from power.

The military don't appear to have gone full putsch-mode at this point; one hopes it stays that way.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12045 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-11-12 02:04:23
November 12 2019 02:02 GMT
#902
What about his last post where he accuses me of being mad and PMing other people? Any sense of the quality here?

On November 12 2019 11:03 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 12 2019 11:02 Nebuchad wrote:
What about his last post where he accuses me of being mad and PMing other people? Any sense of the quality here?

I could wish he didn't punch you back.


Thanks!
"It is capitalism that is incentivizing me to lazily explain this to you while at work because I am not rewarded for generating additional value."
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
November 12 2019 02:03 GMT
#903
On November 12 2019 11:02 Nebuchad wrote:
What about his last post where he accuses me of being mad and PMing other people? Any sense of the quality here?

I could wish he didn't punch you back.
meiji_emperor
Profile Joined July 2016
27 Posts
November 12 2019 07:46 GMT
#904
Bolivia coup led by Christian fascist paramilitary leader and multi-millionaire – with foreign support

When Luis Fernando Camacho stormed into Bolivia’s abandoned presidential palace in the hours after President Evo Morales’s sudden November 10 resignation, he revealed to the world a side of the country that stood at stark odds with the plurinational spirit its deposed socialist and Indigenous leader had put forward.

With a Bible in one hand and a national flag in the other, Camacho bowed his head in prayer above the presidential seal, fulfilling his vow to purge his country’s Native heritage from government and “return God to the burned palace.”

“Pachamama will never return to the palace,” he said, referring to the Andean Mother Earth spirit. “Bolivia belongs to Christ.”

Luis Fernando Camacho was groomed by the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista, or Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), a fascist paramilitary organization that has been linked to assassination plots against Morales. The group is notorious for assaulting leftists, Indigenous peasants, and journalists, all while espousing a deeply racist ideology.

Since Morales entered office in 2006, the UJC has campaigned to separate from a country its members believed had been overtaken by a Satanic Indigenous mass.

Following the forced departure of Morales, coup leaders arrested the president and vice president of the government’s electoral body, and forced the organization’s other officials to resign. Camacho’s followers proceeded to burn Wiphala flags that symbolized the country’s Indigenous population and the plurinational vision of Morales.


What this coup allowed was racist religious fundamentalists to expand their power in Bolivia. Hardly a win for democracy. Indigenous people of Bolivia should be prepared for civil war but they will have a hard fight as the military is siding with the likes of Camacho. Still, the resistance of the people in Donbass shows that ordinary people can stand against attacks from a state's military.
Mo_tx
Profile Joined November 2019
26 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-11-12 10:16:34
November 12 2019 09:19 GMT
#905
On November 12 2019 10:38 des wrote:

Military action is being taken to suppress those who are protesting against the coup. Democracy at its finest!



Supporters of Morales have been marching down the capital chanting “Guerra si!”. Shops, government buildings and houses of politicians on both sides have been sacked or burnt down. https://www.paginasiete.bo/nacional/2019/11/11/terror-impotencia-policial-una-jornada-de-convulsion-237112.html

The intervention of the army is not that surprising, and has been requested by the police who is completely overwhelmed. The situation is extremely violent and volatile. It is difficult to know exactly what happened in the last two days (i.e. what exactly was the role of the army in Evo’s resignation) and how the transition process is going to look like. However we should be careful not to misrepresent the situation with simplistic narratives such as “the left vs militaristic rights”.


Edit to answer to Meiji. Camacho is a giant douche who thinks of himself as the Bolivian Bolsonaro. He is not the supreme leader of the opposition nor the mastermind behind the coup. He is just opportunistic and trying to seize political credit for three weeks of peaceful protests leading to Evo's resignation. However, the role of the army is unclear, and there is certainly a strong reactionnary / conservatives elements within its ranks.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
November 12 2019 09:31 GMT
#906
On November 12 2019 16:46 meiji_emperor wrote:
Bolivia coup led by Christian fascist paramilitary leader and multi-millionaire – with foreign support

Show nested quote +
When Luis Fernando Camacho stormed into Bolivia’s abandoned presidential palace in the hours after President Evo Morales’s sudden November 10 resignation, he revealed to the world a side of the country that stood at stark odds with the plurinational spirit its deposed socialist and Indigenous leader had put forward.

With a Bible in one hand and a national flag in the other, Camacho bowed his head in prayer above the presidential seal, fulfilling his vow to purge his country’s Native heritage from government and “return God to the burned palace.”

“Pachamama will never return to the palace,” he said, referring to the Andean Mother Earth spirit. “Bolivia belongs to Christ.”

Luis Fernando Camacho was groomed by the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista, or Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), a fascist paramilitary organization that has been linked to assassination plots against Morales. The group is notorious for assaulting leftists, Indigenous peasants, and journalists, all while espousing a deeply racist ideology.

Since Morales entered office in 2006, the UJC has campaigned to separate from a country its members believed had been overtaken by a Satanic Indigenous mass.

Following the forced departure of Morales, coup leaders arrested the president and vice president of the government’s electoral body, and forced the organization’s other officials to resign. Camacho’s followers proceeded to burn Wiphala flags that symbolized the country’s Indigenous population and the plurinational vision of Morales.


What this coup allowed was racist religious fundamentalists to expand their power in Bolivia. Hardly a win for democracy. Indigenous people of Bolivia should be prepared for civil war but they will have a hard fight as the military is siding with the likes of Camacho. Still, the resistance of the people in Donbass shows that ordinary people can stand against attacks from a state's military.

In terms of democracy this entire affair is what I would refer to as a "no-win scenario".

(In other words it is important to remember that one side's triumph not being a "win for democracy" implies next to nothing about whether the other side's triumph would have been a "win for democracy" either.)
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 12 2019 14:32 GMT
#907
--- Nuked ---
des
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
United States507 Posts
November 12 2019 18:08 GMT
#908
On November 12 2019 18:19 Mo_tx wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 12 2019 10:38 des wrote:

Military action is being taken to suppress those who are protesting against the coup. Democracy at its finest!



Supporters of Morales have been marching down the capital chanting “Guerra si!”. Shops, government buildings and houses of politicians on both sides have been sacked or burnt down. https://www.paginasiete.bo/nacional/2019/11/11/terror-impotencia-policial-una-jornada-de-convulsion-237112.html

The intervention of the army is not that surprising, and has been requested by the police who is completely overwhelmed. The situation is extremely violent and volatile. It is difficult to know exactly what happened in the last two days (i.e. what exactly was the role of the army in Evo’s resignation) and how the transition process is going to look like. However we should be careful not to misrepresent the situation with simplistic narratives such as “the left vs militaristic rights”.


Prior to the coup, the military and police were much more reticent to enforce order. Many broke ranks with the state over this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/09/bolivian-police-in-la-paz-join-mutiny-against-evo-morales, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-election/bolivia-military-says-wont-confront-the-people-as-pressure-on-morales-builds-idUSKBN1XJ0A2

Given this, there is a clear political stance being taken by the army. They are not sitting aside and allowing the situation to develop, nor are they unilaterally protecting the peace. They are exploiting their position as the store of force of the Bolivian state to dictate its leadership. It is not difficult to know their role, since they overtly put pressure on Morales: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-latest-bolivias-military-says-morales-should-resign/2019/11/10/2a83b640-03f8-11ea-9118-25d6bd37dfb1_story.html

The original OAS report makes a claim of statistical improbability that the votes fell the way they were claimed (https://news.yahoo.com/oas-says-statistically-unlikely-bolivias-093815727.html), but again the CEPR disputes their statistical analysis: http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/bolivia-elections-2019-11.pdf?v=2

Given that there is not a clear consensus among analysts, this merited further analysis and potentially an actual trial before ousting Morales. Regardless of how you feel about Morales and the outcome of this, this is explicitly an extrajudicial action in which the military is at the very least complicit if not an active participant.
my larvae bring all the zerg to the yard
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-11-12 19:41:53
November 12 2019 19:41 GMT
#909
--- Nuked ---
Mo_tx
Profile Joined November 2019
26 Posts
November 15 2019 10:19 GMT
#910
There was a good article in the Guardian on how both narratives of the Bolivian crisis (coup d’etat vs popular uprising against a pseudo-dictator) overlook important elements (although the author is more on the coup sides)


The debate over whether or not Morales’s ouster constitutes a coup is revealing. Those who deny that there has been a coup – Trump, Bolsonaro and mainstream press – express the predictable and longstanding animosity of the powerful towards leftist governments that challenge the status quo and offer the powerless hope for an alternative. For those in this camp, Morales’s fall is fully (or largely) legitimate and something to be welcomed as the return of democracy, regardless of how it occurred. The denunciation of Morales’s ouster as a coup – the position of leading leftist figures in Latin America, the US and UK – reveals an equally longstanding, and, yes, predictable concern with military intervention in the political process, particularly when this is hitched to the type of oligarchic rightwing revanchist racism now on display in Bolivia.

But the Bolivian conflict is not black and white. What we need at this moment is not a simplistic condemnation or uncritical defense of Morales and the Mas. We need to recognize the multiplicity of forces, including popular movements, which challenged Morales in recent weeks (and often for much longer).

We also need to recognize that, right now, it is not popular movements that have taken charge in Bolivia, but a Bible-thumping racist right that has burned the wiphala, promised that “Pachamama will never return to the [presidential] palace” and chillingly called on the military and police to “pacify” Bolivia’s streets. The sad result of this is chaos and violence by state security forces and at least some Mas supporters. At the end of the day the most important question may not be whether or not this was a coup, but what comes next? The picture so far is decidedly grim.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/morales-bolivia-military-coup?fbclid=IwAR1j52kVB5hGQtOHJnZ39fvA828nyWsZUswN5_YkkR42Fc9_lTF_f5xNZ_8



After a very violent night (Wednesday to Thursday), which increased the death toll to 10, the situation seems to normalize. Interim President Jeanine Añez reached to her opponents by kissing the indigenous flag and launching a reconciliation process with leaders from El Alto: http://www.la-razon.com/nacional/Anez-completa-gabinete-ministra-Alto_0_3257674272.html . She also obtained the recognition from Russia as interim president. This is quite significant for Morales, as Russia and their State media heavily supported Morales right after the coup (and of course blaming it on an US intervention).

However, Jeanine Añez is currently criticized for several racist tweets making fun of indigenous beliefs http://www.la-razon.com/nacional/agresivos-tuits-originarios-indigenas-Anez_0_3257674271.html. Others have noted that her government does not comprise a single person with indigenous background: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/14/bolivia-president-jeanine-anez-cabinet-indigenous





GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States22991 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-11-16 14:58:45
November 16 2019 12:47 GMT
#911
Violence from police is catching reporters in their line of fire. Bolivian police inexplicably spraying a reporter with pepper spray/tear gas.



Police have been shooting and killing protesters as well.

Hospital director Guadalberto Lara said that most of the dead in Sacaba, in the centre of the country, as well as some of the dozens more who were injured, had bullet wounds. Witnesses said police opened fire on protesters, who were calling for the return of Morales from exile in Mexico.

“It’s very unfortunate,” Lara said, calling it the worst violence he’s seen in his 30-year career.


www.theguardian.com

Whatever Morales is, it's clear the western backed coup was not about freedom or democracy nor were it's supporters advocating such.

EDIT: Reporting from The Nation on leaders in the US lying about Morales election before the OAS (and others) echoed their unsupported claims.

Hours before the OAS press statement, and even longer before the votes were counted, Senator Marco Rubio stated falsely, “In #Bolivia all credible indications are Evo Morales failed to secure necessary margin to avoid second round in Presidential election.” He also alleged, without evidence, that there was “some concern he will tamper with the results or process to avoid this.” Trump administration officials followed with similar statements.

The potentially violence-promoting claims of the OAS, which echo those of Rubio and the Trump administration, have driven much of the media’s coverage, and serve as an anchor for those who want to discredit the election.


Rubio, Trump, and the OAS aren't exactly good faith actors.

For those who bothered to look at the data (the 34,000 tally sheets, signed by observers, are on the Web), it was clear that the increase in the share of Morales’s votes in later returns was simply a result of geography. In other words, Morales’s support is much stronger among rural and poorer populations, whose votes came in later. Such a geographically driven change in vote margins is not that uncommon in elections—as anyone who has watched election returns on television in the United States knows. And this change wasn’t even that big of a shift.


www.thenation.com
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 16 2019 14:38 GMT
#912
--- Nuked ---
des
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
United States507 Posts
November 16 2019 22:31 GMT
#913
https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/13/bolivian-coup-plotters-school-of-the-americas-fbi-police-programs/
my larvae bring all the zerg to the yard
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 16 2019 22:39 GMT
#914
--- Nuked ---
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12045 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-11-17 00:04:21
November 16 2019 23:27 GMT
#915
He had a 9% lead on the center right party before you think he decided to cheat. That isn't disputed by anyone. Before there were cheating allegations the leader of the center right party talked to the press and he was super happy to get to the second round because he wasn't sure he would get enough votes to do so against Morales.

Also it's the rightwing party that has power now not the center left party. And if you trust them to set a fair election more than you trust a leftwinger, I got some bridges to sell you in South America.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/14/bolivia-president-jeanine-anez-cabinet-indigenous

“We want to be a democratic tool of inclusion and unity,” said the 52-year-old religious conservative, sitting at a table bearing a huge open Bible and crucifix.

But the transitional cabinet initially sworn into office on Wednesday night did not include a single indigenous person, in a country where at least 40% of the population belongs to one of 36 indigenous groups.


Áñez herself has drawn criticism after racist remarks against indigenous people were unearthed in tweets attributed to her from 2013.

“This is definitely an anti-indigenous government,” said María Galindo, founder of the Mujer Creando feminist movement. “It’s not just racism but also the issue of the plurinational state,” she said.

But Galindo, a fierce critic of Morales, was most worried by the power vacuum the leftwing icon left behind. “The right has filled the gigantic void in a chilling and dangerous way,” she said.

“Especially for me because I’m an anti-fascist fighter in this country, I’m openly lesbian and I could be targeted, threatened and murdered in this country,” she added.
"It is capitalism that is incentivizing me to lazily explain this to you while at work because I am not rewarded for generating additional value."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States22991 Posts
November 16 2019 23:43 GMT
#916
On November 17 2019 07:39 JimmiC wrote:
Gotcha, just a bunch of assumptions and loose connections.

It is hard to take it too seriously when the referendum failed and than even with the irregularities Morales popularity fell what 20% from his last election? The center left party made such gains that he had to cheat to win, the right wing party was doing terribly.

Lets not forget that before this "western backed coup" the people were rioting in the streets because of the election fraud and Morales tried to quell it with force the police and military just were not willing to follow his orders.

At this point the best thing for Bolivia is a new election which the interim has said will happen right away. And they should have tons of oversight to make sure that unlike the last one this one is legitimate.


What election fraud?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 16 2019 23:55 GMT
#917
--- Nuked ---
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12045 Posts
November 17 2019 00:02 GMT
#918
On November 17 2019 08:55 JimmiC wrote:
See this is where you are confused, he was up by 7% before the pause and magically 11% after. And it was over the center left party.

And no I dont trust thats why I said proper oversight.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-latin-america-50119655


Okay I thought it was 9 (36-45) and I messed up my numbers when I calculated lol. I'll take 7, that's fine.

Any insight on why it's the rightwing party that got the power and were trusted to set up new elections instead of Carlos Mesa and his 36%, btw?
"It is capitalism that is incentivizing me to lazily explain this to you while at work because I am not rewarded for generating additional value."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States22991 Posts
November 17 2019 00:04 GMT
#919
On November 17 2019 08:55 JimmiC wrote:
See this is where you are confused, he was up by 7% before the pause and magically 11% after. And it was over the center left party.

And no I dont trust thats why I said proper oversight.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-latin-america-50119655


So no fraud then. Just a baseless assumption which is easily explained by basic regional electoral dynamics like we see in the US and elsewhere.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 17 2019 00:38 GMT
#920
--- Nuked ---
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