EPTIt's nuts that were it not for Biden's unforced error in pressing Trump for a debate, leading to Pelosi forcing Biden to drop out, Democrats wouldn't even have a chance at this point still white knuckling it with Biden.
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GreenHorizons
United States23332 Posts
It's nuts that were it not for Biden's unforced error in pressing Trump for a debate, leading to Pelosi forcing Biden to drop out, Democrats wouldn't even have a chance at this point still white knuckling it with Biden. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
On October 07 2024 01:05 GreenHorizons wrote: Less than a month from election day with votes already coming in and it's basically a dead heat. That's worse than the polling position Democrats faced in 2016 when they lost to Trump. It's nuts that were it not for Biden's unforced error in pressing Trump for a debate, leading to Pelosi forcing Biden to drop out, Democrats wouldn't even have a chance at this point still white knuckling it with Biden. Can I see your source on that? It's early enough that I'm not yet seeing a lot of information on the results. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23332 Posts
On October 07 2024 03:35 NewSunshine wrote: Can I see your source on that? It's early enough that I'm not yet seeing a lot of information on the results. Not sure what you want sourced, but upon rereading I'm guessing there was a miscommunication. I'm not saying that the votes that are already being casted are being tallied to a dead heat (most can't legally be counted for one candidate or another until on or near election day), but that voting is already happening while the polling is basically a dead heat. That's worse positionally for Democrats than 2016 when Democrats lost to Trump. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States44723 Posts
On October 07 2024 04:06 GreenHorizons wrote: Not sure what you want sourced, but upon rereading I'm guessing there was a miscommunication. I'm not saying that the votes that are already being casted are being tallied to a dead heat (most can't legally be counted for one candidate or another until on or near election day), but that voting is already happening while the polling is basically a dead heat. That's worse positionally for Democrats than 2016 when Democrats lost to Trump. Thank you for clarifying. I also read your previous post that other/wrong way, due to a | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
On October 07 2024 04:06 GreenHorizons wrote: Not sure what you want sourced, but upon rereading I'm guessing there was a miscommunication. I'm not saying that the votes that are already being casted are being tallied to a dead heat (most can't legally be counted for one candidate or another until on or near election day), but that voting is already happening while the polling is basically a dead heat. That's worse positionally for Democrats than 2016 when Democrats lost to Trump. Okay, that's different. What I've seen so far suggests that Democrats are casting the majority of early votes so far, which is different from saying it's a dead heat. As far as the polling goes, sure. It's hard to say how much I even trust the polls, as far as how they will indicate who's actually going to win anyway, we're kind of in unprecedented political times that were ushered in by the election of Trump, who not only outperformed the polls, but who is also polarizing in ways that polls aren't necessarily capturing? Not to say you're wrong for thinking Dems are in a tenuous position now, that's true to an extent, and while the data may not be perfect, that's what the data says. But I think given how polls performed prior to Trump, as well as considering the effect Trump had on our country, it's very hard to look at pre-Trump polls, and to a certain extent any polls these days, and conclude anything beyond the broad scope of enthusiasm for each candidate. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States44723 Posts
A Month From Election Day, Kamala Harris Readies Media Blitz https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/politics-news/kamala-harris-media-blitz-howard-stern-the-view-colbert-1236025387/ The vice president and Democratic nominee has set a slew of media appearances this week, including a live interview with 'The View' and sit-downs with Howard Stern and Stephen Colbert. If you turn a TV or radio this week, don’t be surprised if you see or hear Vice President Kamala Harris. The Democratic presidential nominee, after mostly avoiding interviews over the past few months (she has done a few) is going on an all-out media blitz this week, booking a number of high-profile interviews that span mediums and audiences. On Sunday, Harris is scheduled to appear on the popular Call Her Daddy podcast, with host Alex Cooper expected to speak with the veep about reproductive rights, among other topics. On Monday, Harris is set to appear on a special primetime edition of the CBS newsmagazine 60 Minutes, with Bill Whitaker grilling the candidate about her plans if she wins next month. That interview was taped over the weekend. On Tuesday, Harris will make the rounds across New York City, with a live morning appearance in studio on ABC’s The View, followed by a live interview with SiriusXM star Howard Stern. Later in the afternoon, she will visit CBS’ Late Show With Stephen Colbert, her first late night appearance since securing the Democratic nomination. And on Thursday, Harris will travel to Las Vegas, where she will participate in a TelevisaUnivision town hall moderated by Enrique Acevedo. Harris is not alone in her media push. Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, appeared on Fox News Sunday this weekend, and is scheduled to appear on ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live! on Monday, with an interview on a popular (but unnamed) pop culture podcast also set for this week. It is a full-on media push, with some tough interviews (60 Minutes, Fox News Sunday and most town halls are never simple or straightforward), even if many of the interviews will be friendly in tone and substance. But it also underscored the value that the Harris campaign still sees in traditional outlets, even as they explore some popular podcasts as alternatives to traditional media. If a presidential campaign is a battle for attention, it’s a game that former President Donald Trump knows how to play, and Harris and her team need to push to keep their candidate in front of voters, during the day, in primetime, in late night and during commutes. | ||
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oBlade
United States5692 Posts
On October 07 2024 05:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: Thank you for clarifying. I also read your previous post that other/wrong way, due to a dangling participle ("it"). That's a pronoun with an ambiguous antecedent, not a dangling or any other kind of participle. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States44723 Posts
On October 07 2024 05:46 oBlade wrote: That's a pronoun with an ambiguous antecedent, not a dangling or any other kind of participle. Gotcha, thanks  | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28691 Posts
Basically i think where hillary performed way worse than polls showed i think harris is going to perform as polls indicate. I believe other post-2016 elections have also been much more accurate, no? | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23332 Posts
On October 07 2024 05:37 NewSunshine wrote: Okay, that's different. What I've seen so far suggests that Democrats are casting the majority of early votes so far, which is different from saying it's a dead heat. As far as the polling goes, sure. It's hard to say how much I even trust the polls, as far as how they will indicate who's actually going to win anyway, we're kind of in unprecedented political times that were ushered in by the election of Trump, who not only outperformed the polls, but who is also polarizing in ways that polls aren't necessarily capturing? Not to say you're wrong for thinking Dems are in a tenuous position now, that's true to an extent, and while the data may not be perfect, that's what the data says. But I think given how polls performed prior to Trump, as well as considering the effect Trump had on our country, it's very hard to look at pre-Trump polls, and to a certain extent any polls these days, and conclude anything beyond the broad scope of enthusiasm for each candidate. I mean the polling data is just worse for Harris than it was for Biden or Clinton. So while I can imagine scenarios where the data isn't catastrophic, it's bad by any measure other than remembering Democrat primary voters had to be overruled to prevent them from throwing the race with Biden. The main point mostly just being that Harris didn't open up the gap many were expecting/hoping for and she needed to in order to be in a better polling position than at least Clinton, since she's doing WAY WORSE than Biden's 2020 numbers when he barely squeaked out a win by thousands of votes in those states. | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9129 Posts
On October 07 2024 07:33 Liquid`Drone wrote: I don't think 2016 is comparable. 1: People (also democrats) hated hillary in a way they don't hate harris. 2: polling was so positive that people might have thought they didnt have to vote for her because it was given that she'd win anyway and that coupled with 1 meant they'd rather not dirty their hands. And 3 now Trump is a known entity so people are also less likely to sit out. Basically i think where hillary performed way worse than polls showed i think harris is going to perform as polls indicate. I believe other post-2016 elections have also been much more accurate, no? The difference between polls and results wasn't as big in 2020, but Trump still overperformed by 2-3%. Even if this effect continues to diminish, looking at RCP Harris is ahead by 1% or less in 4 must-win states. My impression from all this is that the places where Harris has a flimsy lead are more likely to flip than the places where Trump has a flimsy lead. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States44723 Posts
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Sadist
United States7266 Posts
This us vs them and tribalism stuff needs to get fucked. None if this is actually about solving problems. | ||
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brian
United States9626 Posts
On October 07 2024 23:31 Sadist wrote: The anti immigrant stuff is scary. On youtube in Michigan all the right wing ads are illegal immigrants murdering people etc. This us vs them and tribalism stuff needs to get fucked. None if this is actually about solving problems. it’s one of the hits. billy joel doesn’t take the stage and just not sing piano man. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
On October 08 2024 00:19 brian wrote: it’s one of the hits. billy joel doesn’t take the stage and just not sing piano man. I'd be interested in learning just what % of time Trump and Vance spent in their respective debates just banging on about immigration and how it's a terrible, horrible thing that's destroying America, I bet an edit of their debates with all the gratuitous mentions of immigration cut out would be quite a bit shorter. Like sure, you would expect Billy Joel to rattle off Piano Man, but if he spent 90 minutes of his 2-hour set just playing Piano Man over and over and over, you'd be forgiven for thinking he somehow ran out of other stuff to play. That's what the Republicans are doing, they're playing on repeat the single hit they always fall back on, and hope people don't get fucking sick of it. To Sadist's point, I haven't heard Republicans mention a single thing they plan to do aside from mass deportations and waving a magic tariff wand at the economy. They plan to Make America Great Again, but only seem to really plan out how to incite maximum anguish among the populace. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States44723 Posts
On October 08 2024 02:10 NewSunshine wrote: I'd be interested in learning just what % of time Trump and Vance spent in their respective debates just banging on about immigration and how it's a terrible, horrible thing that's destroying America, I bet an edit of their debates with all the gratuitous mentions of immigration cut out would be quite a bit shorter. Like sure, you would expect Billy Joel to rattle off Piano Man, but if he spent 90 minutes of his 2-hour set just playing Piano Man over and over and over, you'd be forgiven for thinking he somehow ran out of other stuff to play. That's what the Republicans are doing, they're playing on repeat the single hit they always fall back on, and hope people don't get fucking sick of it. Unfortunately, a lot of their supporters really love listening to that track on repeat, because they're the party of "Everyone else ought to lift themselves up by their bootstraps in the currently-perfect and currently-fair system, but if I can't succeed for any reason, it's because of people who don't look like me." Xenophobia / prejudice / racism are great excuses for them to never take responsibility for themselves while scolding everyone else, and Trump's Piano Man makes them feel validated. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23332 Posts
On October 08 2024 02:21 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: To be fair, Trump's Piano Man has been the US's theme song for a couple centuries. Unfortunately, a lot of their supporters really love listening to that track on repeat, because they're the party of "Everyone else ought to lift themselves up by their bootstraps in the currently-perfect and currently-fair system, but if I can't succeed for any reason, it's because of people who don't look like me." Xenophobia / prejudice / racism are great excuses for them to never take responsibility for themselves while scolding everyone else, and Trump's Piano Man makes them feel validated. Even many people that know it's a problematic song can't help but sing along and then get mad at the Trumpers for not singing it with them (Democrats frustration at Republicans not helping them pass anti-immigrant legislation for example). | ||
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brian
United States9626 Posts
On October 08 2024 02:48 GreenHorizons wrote: Even many people that know it's a problematic song i had a brief moment of panic thinking we were going to cancel long islands pride and joy | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
On October 08 2024 02:48 GreenHorizons wrote: To be fair, Trump's Piano Man has been the US's theme song for a couple centuries. Even many people that know it's a problematic song can't help but sing along and then get mad at the Trumpers for not singing it with them (Democrats frustration at Republicans not helping them pass anti-immigrant legislation for example). On the note of the immigration bill that Democrats tried to pass, I'm not upset that it was killed personally, but I think they're absolutely correct to point out that they earnestly tried to pass it and Republicans of all people killed it at Trump's behest. It's the most naked ploy on their part to maintain a wedge issue instead of taking an opportunity to solve it, handed to them by the Democrats even. It was a bipartisan issue! Republicans: We run on solving a problem! Democrats: We want to help solve that problem! Republicans: Never mind, we don't want to address the problem anymore. That's literally what happened. Again, I would rather we not pass such sweeping anti-immigrant legislation, so I didn't mind the outcome. If you squint, what the Democrats did there could pass as 7D chess maneuvering. But they made a swing, and by all accounts the Republicans should have been on board. They're correct to call out the Republicans in nakedly moving to keep a wedge issue a wedge issue just so they can cynically continue to run on it. Just like you're correct to point out that the song is problematic, and that they shouldn't be joining in the chorus to begin with. But this is how it turned out. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23332 Posts
On October 08 2024 03:08 NewSunshine wrote: On the note of the immigration bill that Democrats tried to pass, I'm not upset that it was killed personally, but I think they're absolutely correct to point out that they earnestly tried to pass it and Republicans of all people killed it at Trump's behest. It's the most naked ploy on their part to maintain a wedge issue instead of taking an opportunity to solve it, handed to them by the Democrats even. It was a bipartisan issue! Republicans: We run on solving a problem! Democrats: We want to help solve that problem! Republicans: Never mind, we don't want to address the problem anymore. That's literally what happened. Again, I would rather we not pass such sweeping anti-immigrant legislation, so I didn't mind the outcome. If you squint, what the Democrats did there could pass as 7D chess maneuvering. But they made a swing, and by all accounts the Republicans should have been on board. They're correct to call out the Republicans in nakedly moving to keep a wedge issue a wedge issue just so they can cynically continue to run on it. Just like you're correct to point out that the song is problematic, and that they shouldn't be joining in the chorus to begin with. But this is how it turned out. This was basically the entire theme of Obama's presidency. He'd offer Republicans their own ideas, Republicans would reject them, then Democrats would move even further to the right to try to appease them next time. People recognized it was pretty foolish to keep falling for that a decade ago. Presenting them going through the same kabuki on immigration as some novel revelation/"7D chess" is just peak copium. What Democrats effectively did/are doing with their harping on Republicans for not singing along with them, is move the left bound of what can be done for immigrants much further right for no meaningful benefit. | ||
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