EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2788
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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results (GOP - 53%, Dem - 37%) Y'all are delusional if you think Texas has a chance to go blue in this election, and of course the tired parade of "but disenfranchisement, because...it's soooooo hard to vote!!" bullshit excuse for why Dems lose at all. Do you guys even listen to yourselves outside of your bubble at any time? Anyways, I expect Trump to lose, but I also expect the "pollsters" to do a shit job again. Why anyone listens to them is beyond me. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Gahlo
United States35172 Posts
On October 27 2020 00:01 Mohdoo wrote: I really don’t like Biden spending time in Georgia. He needs to get his ass back to the Midwest and firm that up. Or spend that entire week in Pennsylvania. But not Georgia. He doesn’t need Georgia this just feels so dumb Trump is once again doing Biden's work for him in Pennsylvania by threatening to withhold federal aid because the governor isn't helping his campaign. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
The point is that it has been found, time and again, that republicans have crafted carefully targeted strategies to make it harder for minorities to vote. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is straight from their own private papers and such. Thomas Hofeller - Architect of the 2010 GOP redestricting strategy. After he died, his daughter provided all of his private papers, which outlined strategies explicitly based on gerrymandering along racial lines : While Hofeller was known for drawing maps to give Republicans an advantage and to limit the impact of voters of color in North Carolina, Texas, Missouri, and Virginia, the new documents reveal he also participated in the 2010 redistricting cycle in Alabama, Florida, and West Virginia. And, in those three states, it appears Hofeller and other Republican mapmakers experimented with using race as the primary factor in drawing districts in these states — a tactic ruled unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause, which requires that people in similar circumstances be treated the same under the law. Among the trove of over 70,000 documents are draft maps with voter data broken down by race, spreadsheets that include the home addresses of members of Congress, travel plans, and legislation marked up by Hofeller himself. https://theintercept.com/2019/09/23/gerrymandering-gop-west-virginia-florida-alabama/ He was also the source of the baldly, plainly unconstitutional citizenship question on the census: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/census-citizenship-question-hofeller.html Don Yelton - GOP county chair in NC, in 2013, regarding 2013 laws to restrict voting in NC: "these laws are going to kick democrats in the butt" These policies were later described as a law that would "target African-Americans with almost surgical precision" by the district court (the SC turned down the appeal in 2017, so at the very least, 5 justices agreed with the district court at the time). In its ruling, the appeals court said the law was intentionally designed to discriminate against black people. North Carolina legislators had requested data on voting patterns by race and, with that data in hand, drafted a law that would "target African-Americans with almost surgical precision," the court said. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/15/528457693/supreme-court-declines-republican-bid-to-revive-north-carolina-voter-id-law Georgia, under Kemp, blocked 80k registrations - 80% of these were non-whites. On why he calls Georgia the "epicenter of the voter suppression battle" Georgia has closed 214 polling places in recent years. They have cut back on early voting. They have aggressively purged the voter rolls. Georgia has purged almost 10 percent of people from its voting rolls. One and a half million people have been purged from 2012 to 2016. ... There's a lot of different data points that show how Georgia is leading the way when it comes to restricting access to the ballot. ... It was reported by the Associated Press that [gubernatorial candidate] Brian Kemp's office (the secretary of state's office) in Georgia was blocking 53,000 voter registrations in that state — 70 percent from African-Americans, 80 percent from people of color. [...] This kind of exact-match system is known as "disenfranchisement by typo" because when you submit a voter registration form, if you have a hyphen missing on your name, if you have an apostrophe missing, if you use "Tom" on one form and "Thomas" on another, your form is going to be blocked by the state of Georgia. And what's interesting to me is that Georgia first tried to put this policy in place in 2009 when it previously had to approve its voting changes with the federal government under the Voting Rights Act, and the federal government actually blocked this exact-match system from going into effect because they said it was discriminatory against minority voters, who are more likely to be flagged by this system. Then when Brian Kemp was elected, in 2010, he started doing this administratively. He was sued in 2016 by the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights, a voting rights group, because 35,000 registrations were flagged as "pending" under the exact-match system and there was a huge racial disparity in terms of who was flagged, and Kemp's office actually said he was going to stop doing this system. But what happened is the Georgia legislature basically reauthorized the law, gave voters more time to do this, and so a lot of people didn't even realize this law was back into effect. https://www.npr.org/2018/10/23/659784277/republican-voter-suppression-efforts-are-targeting-minorities-journalist-says Purges of voters from registration rolls are frequently cited as being aimed at minorities. Do these make it impossible to vote? No. Not at all. The point is to make it harder, as if 3-5% of voters for the other side aren't willing to jump through 6x as many hoops as your side (this extends to things like voting in the suburbs taking 5 minutes while taking 5 hours in urban areas, as has been my experience), then you can win with a smaller population size. It's not really a nationwide thing, however. Some states are much more affected than others. Georgia is probably the worst for disenfranchisment, while mail-in voting from Texas is extremely hard. Voting ID requirements target elderly black people, who grew up in an era where getting proper documentation was much harder for them than their white neighbors. It effectively amounts to a poll tax at best. I have no issues with a voting ID law that makes getting an ID free. Republicans immediately drop the issue when it is made explicitly clear that it would have to be funded by the government, or start screaming about national registrations. We have notably improved from the past. But just because we're no longer turning fire hoses on black people, lynching them, or turning the dogs on them for trying to vote doesn't mean we've entirely stopped making it harder to vote. If all of this anecdotal or legal data has not convinced you, consider the 538 model. The 538 model uses historical data. The reason it takes into account how restrictive voting permissions is historical: the more restrictive, the more it has favored the GOP in the past. It's nothing to do with "woooo boogeyman voting hard wooooo". It's based on hard numbers and facts: restrictive voting laws favor the GOP more than can be explained by demographics, trends, or polls. | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On October 27 2020 08:16 plasmidghost wrote: It's important to note that this is just declared party affiliation from a previous race. Hell, I was a registered Republican in 2014, so I'm still registered as one in the Texas voting system since I never got around to switching to the Dems. It's also important to note that TargetSmart, the very company that NBC got its voter registration info from, states on its website that https://insights.targetsmart.com/insights-50-million-votes-in-how-to-interpret-tx-turnout.html Democrats trail early vote totals by way more than 12% (or the 14% of last election; why you trust their "modeling" rather than the facts of the current totals is...bewildering), and yes, I also understand that it is only declared partisanship, but the gulf is so wide and the vote totals so high all ready (with declared partisans not moving much from their party candidates) that it's lunacy to expect Biden to win Texas when trailing by 16% in early voting. Their reasoning for optimism also belies facts. They assume all senate candidates are created equally and can thus extrapolate one result to the next. All historical analysis would debunk this sham in about .4 seconds flat. In any event, choose your blinders. It doesn't matter to me. Just don't be surprised when Trump wins Texas by at least +7-8. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45916 Posts
On October 27 2020 08:08 Wegandi wrote: I don't know where these pollsters get their info about Texas, but the GOP are walloping Democrats in early voting. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results (GOP - 53%, Dem - 37%) Y'all are delusional if you think Texas has a chance to go blue in this election, and of course the tired parade of "but disenfranchisement, because...it's soooooo hard to vote!!" bullshit excuse for why Dems lose at all. Do you guys even listen to yourselves outside of your bubble at any time? Anyways, I expect Trump to lose, but I also expect the "pollsters" to do a shit job again. Why anyone listens to them is beyond me. 1. Voter disenfranchisement exists. 2. Trump winning or losing in Texas doesn't change that fact. 3. Pollsters doing a shit job? With regards to what? Probabilities? You know that a prediction isn't a guarantee, right? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45916 Posts
On October 27 2020 08:42 Wegandi wrote: Democrats trail early vote totals by way more than 12% (or the 14% of last election; why you trust their "modeling" rather than the facts of the current totals is...bewildering), and yes, I also understand that it is only declared partisanship, but the gulf is so wide and the vote totals so high all ready (with declared partisans not moving much from their party candidates) that it's lunacy to expect Biden to win Texas when trailing by 16% in early voting. Their reasoning for optimism also belies facts. They assume all senate candidates are created equally and can thus extrapolate one result to the next. All historical analysis would debunk this sham in about .4 seconds flat. In any event, choose your blinders. It doesn't matter to me. Just don't be surprised when Trump wins Texas by at least +7-8. So.... within the margin of error for most of the recent polls? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Texas.html You berate the pollsters for doing a shitty job and then you wind up agreeing with them >.> | ||
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Introvert
United States4951 Posts
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micronesia
United States24772 Posts
I doubt I'm the only one. | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10402 Posts
On October 27 2020 09:21 micronesia wrote: It's quite remarkable how many people had to completely eat their words in order to make this happen, ACB included. The GOP has lost me for life as a possible supporter at all levels of government (not that I needed to wait until now). That doesn't make me a Democrat, but from their perspective it's hardly a difference. I doubt I'm the only one. You're most certainly not alone. A lot of lean-conservatives have really been left with no party at this point. We can only hope that after Trump leaves, the Republicans might go back to what they used to represent in the 80s/90s. But who knows at this point. As a moderate now NPP, I'm not going to vote for any Republican at the federal level until the Court returns to relative parity unless the Democratic candidate is just so bad, like Trump-level bad. It's a real disappointment what happened today. | ||
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micronesia
United States24772 Posts
On October 27 2020 10:26 FlaShFTW wrote: You're most certainly not alone. A lot of lean-conservatives have really been left with no party at this point. We can only hope that after Trump leaves, the Republicans might go back to what they used to represent in the 80s/90s. But who knows at this point. As a moderate now NPP, I'm not going to vote for any Republican at the federal level until the Court returns to relative parity unless the Democratic candidate is just so bad, like Trump-level bad. It's a real disappointment what happened today. I see your point. Regarding the bold, I'll add that the way the GOP kowtowed to Trump so much these past few years means that they can't simply say "do-over" and expect me (or many others) to accept it when they start acting more reasonable. They screwed up badly. I think they need to form a new party entirely before I respect their ideas again. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On October 27 2020 09:21 micronesia wrote: It's quite remarkable how many people had to completely eat their words in order to make this happen, ACB included. The GOP has lost me for life as a possible supporter at all levels of government (not that I needed to wait until now). That doesn't make me a Democrat, but from their perspective it's hardly a difference. I doubt I'm the only one. About 10 years ago I was slightly sympathetic to McCain on some issues. I thought he was the better debater, fucked over by Bush's failures, but may have been less cozy with wall street. Fast forward to now and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't vote for a republican dog catcher, or even someone who donated to even a republican dog catcher once within the last 10 years. I don't think court packing will happen in 2021 unless ACB rules in favor of Trump on election issues, before election day. It will definitely happen in 2022, though, unless ACB has a sudden and total ideology change. Here's an interesting stat : Edit- Correct stats. https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/harvard-youth-poll Biden leads Trump by 63 percent to 25 percent among 18-29 year olds. No effect on this election, really, but not good for their future. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22365 Posts
On October 27 2020 10:35 micronesia wrote: A big question is if they even could change if they wanted to.I see your point. Regarding the bold, I'll add that the way the GOP kowtowed to Trump so much these past few years means that they can't simply say "do-over" and expect me (or many others) to accept it when they start acting more reasonable. They screwed up badly. I think they need to form a new party entirely before I respect their ideas again. Remember the GOP itself didn't want Trump either, their base make him the candidate and that base has only been further radicalised over the past 4 years. The 2024 Republican primary is going to be "interesting". | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On October 27 2020 10:55 NewSunshine wrote: They've burned all good faith, all respect, and all norms. Not just now, but this certainly is a nice capstone project on their unconscionable fuckery. I guess their strategy is to get such a lockdown on power that they never lose it, because they're not going to like what happens when they do. The good thing to come from all of this is that an enormous swath of people who were convinced of "reach across the aisle" being a legitimate thing are totally over it now. My "moderate" friends are now completely convinced the country is essentially in a civil war. It is a good thing because when you are playing the wrong game, your opponent will always win, as evidenced here. | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On October 27 2020 09:04 JimmiC wrote: One month sig bet says Trump does not win Texas by 7 or more. Interested? Sure, I'll take that. Trump will easily win with that margin in TX. | ||
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