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On September 19 2020 10:27 Introvert wrote:
For RGB it will be Amy Coney Barrett unless something goes wrong. That's why she wasn't picked for the last seat.
Moderates like Murkowski and Collins are probably gonna flip with a quick appointment. I don't see Trump's pick going through, save for a 50-50 tie with Pence casting the deciding vote. We'll see. My gut says appointments defeated.
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United States43989 Posts
On September 19 2020 10:28 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 09:19 Nevuk wrote:
The GOP ramming through a replacement would be a tactically good move, but strategically idiotic.
In the short run it'd guarantee them the seat, but in the long run it would have one of two outcomes. Court packing the next second there is a democratic trifecta (this can be done with a simple majority, as the only thing ever preventing it was the 60 vote filibuster which has already been revoked), or it will result in the SC losing all legitimacy.
The SC's entire power comes from being a trusted institution. People on both sides assume that they generally make rulings in good faith. The people currently on the court, aside from Kavanaugh, seem to understand this on varying levels (some very well, like Roberts, some only somewhat like Thomas). It's why their rulings are always so narrow, especially when it is a controversial ruling, and why they are small c conservative generally - they dislike making large changes. If the SC says something is unconstitutional, and the legislative and executive branches disagree - they can just ignore it (especially if it's overwhelmingly popular). They have no army or police force. It's happened in the past, albeit not for almost 200 years.
The "compromise" option that they may go with is a Gorsuch type - someone so ridiculously qualified that they deserve to be on the bench. However, I don't know how many of those are floating out there that will fit these criteria: will vote the way the GOP wants, qualified enough, and dumb enough to agree to something that WILL make them the most hated person after Trump in the country. I think court-packing is in the cards even if this one is delayed.
Biden doesn't have the balls, he's an old conservative. He values propriety of the forms over winning. Liberals doesn't have anyone willing to shit all over the constitution to stick it to the right.
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On September 19 2020 10:31 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:27 Introvert wrote:
For RGB it will be Amy Coney Barrett unless something goes wrong. That's why she wasn't picked for the last seat. Moderates like Murkowski and Collins are probably gonna flip with a quick appointment. I don't see Trump's pick going through, save for a 50-50 tie with Pence casting the deciding vote. We'll see. My gut says appointments defeated.
Yeah I would say it's not going to happen but then again I'm not sure McConnel would do this if we thought they wouldn't even get to a vote. Then again, he knows the vote won't happen until after Nov. 3rd, so I think I understand his play here.
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On September 19 2020 10:31 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:27 Introvert wrote:
For RGB it will be Amy Coney Barrett unless something goes wrong. That's why she wasn't picked for the last seat. Moderates like Murkowski and Collins are probably gonna flip with a quick appointment. I don't see Trump's pick going through, save for a 50-50 tie with Pence casting the deciding vote. We'll see. My gut says appointments defeated.
I think Collins will definitely base her decision entirely off electoral math and being pragmatic. She has always maneuvered around re-election, even if she has a very poor idea of what will help her with that, and she could really use something to wash the stink she accumulated during Kavanough off her.
I suspect it's very likely we see a shielded "no" vote from her on this, but I'd be shocked if McConnell lets it be anything but a posturing vote with 52 Rs in favor. She may also just lie before the election and change afterwards; she clearly has no problem with faking obfuscating stupidity.
The one saving grace of an R appointment going through is that I'm pretty sure it would give the Dems a much better path towards a Senate majority in 2020.
McConnell's statement also leaves open the chance to do the absolutely disgusting possibility of "float names->have hearing and vote after the election->install R appointee during Trump's lame duck period" even if Dems win the Senate. And I have 0 doubt he will do just that, because at this point he has fully owned up to the lying sack of shit label.
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On September 19 2020 10:40 JimmiC wrote:
How many Republican Senators who would be at risk would be willing to sacrifice themselves to put through a justice? While I think Introvert brings a interesting perspective that not filling it might be motivating to both sides in different ways, pushing one through would almost certainly motivate Dem voters more than the Reps.
They will only do what their data says will give them the best chances of keeping their seats. Nothing else, for sure. The moderate senators are basically just empty vessels.
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Romney now also saying he won’t vote until after the inauguration. Romney is from Utah which is a red voting state, for Romney to flip on trump, I think it’s essentially showing what Utah’s outcome may be when it votes.
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On September 19 2020 11:03 ShoCkeyy wrote:Romney now also saying he won’t vote until after the inauguration. Romney is from Utah which is a red voting state, for Romney to flip on trump, I think it’s essentially showing what Utah’s outcome may be when it votes. https://twitter.com/JimDabakis/status/1307120855454044160
Seems denied according to Romney's communications director
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On September 19 2020 10:40 JimmiC wrote:
How many Republican Senators who would be at risk would be willing to sacrifice themselves to put through a justice? While I think Introvert brings a interesting perspective that not filling it might be motivating to both sides in different ways, pushing one through would almost certainly motivate Dem voters more than the Reps.
I was actually under the opposite impression: Republicans have the opportunity to potentially push through another SCJ that has conservative views, so if one of their own stands in their way, they would be sacrificing themselves to do the right thing.
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On September 19 2020 10:31 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:27 Introvert wrote:
For RGB it will be Amy Coney Barrett unless something goes wrong. That's why she wasn't picked for the last seat. Moderates like Murkowski and Collins are probably gonna flip with a quick appointment. I don't see Trump's pick going through, save for a 50-50 tie with Pence casting the deciding vote. We'll see. My gut says appointments defeated.
I think that the Republicans will pull out every stop and press all their members into voting correctly on this matter, simply by virtue of how important the appointment would be. It worked out in their favor in 2016, and it could do the same this time. They might have to choose a "compromise" candidate to make it happen, though.
A lame duck appointment seems fully possible.
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On September 19 2020 10:45 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:31 Danglars wrote:On September 19 2020 10:27 Introvert wrote:
For RGB it will be Amy Coney Barrett unless something goes wrong. That's why she wasn't picked for the last seat. Moderates like Murkowski and Collins are probably gonna flip with a quick appointment. I don't see Trump's pick going through, save for a 50-50 tie with Pence casting the deciding vote. We'll see. My gut says appointments defeated. I think Collins will definitely base her decision entirely off electoral math and being pragmatic. She has always maneuvered around re-election, even if she has a very poor idea of what will help her with that, and she could really use something to wash the stink she accumulated during Kavanough off her. I suspect it's very likely we see a shielded "no" vote from her on this, but I'd be shocked if McConnell lets it be anything but a posturing vote with 52 Rs in favor. She may also just lie before the election and change afterwards; she clearly has no problem with faking obfuscating stupidity. The one saving grace of an R appointment going through is that I'm pretty sure it would give the Dems a much better path towards a Senate majority in 2020. McConnell's statement also leaves open the chance to do the absolutely disgusting possibility of "float names->have hearing and vote after the election->install R appointee during Trump's lame duck period" even if Dems win the Senate. And I have 0 doubt he will do just that.
As with the Republican failure to repeal Obamacare, I don't think McConnell has any leverage to persuade votes. There could be 4 R Senators unwilling to appoint a Trump justice. Either from a sense of fair play, or some ideological position on the split of the court.
The emotion she should feel from Kavanaugh is pride. She made the right decision in trying circumstances. Not to relitigate Kavanaugh when there's so much new stuff to handle.
On September 19 2020 11:27 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:31 Danglars wrote:On September 19 2020 10:27 Introvert wrote:
For RGB it will be Amy Coney Barrett unless something goes wrong. That's why she wasn't picked for the last seat. Moderates like Murkowski and Collins are probably gonna flip with a quick appointment. I don't see Trump's pick going through, save for a 50-50 tie with Pence casting the deciding vote. We'll see. My gut says appointments defeated. I think that the Republicans will pull out every stop and press all their members into voting correctly on this matter, simply by virtue of how important the appointment would be. It worked out in their favor in 2016, and it could do the same this time. They might have to choose a "compromise" candidate to make it happen, though. A lame duck appointment seems fully possible.
What's he holding over their heads? They're gonna have all the positive press in the world for being mavericks if they buck the party line. Trump's gonna be gone if they're actually lame duck.
Presidential statement on it. Good one, let's see if Trump can keep it up for 6 hours - 2 days.
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Actually McConnell may have one less seat from what i reading. McSally is almost surefire to lose and since it is a special election Kelly would be sworn in immediately. He may not have the votes to get a 50/50 tie with Pence. I doubt it since i think he going to find a way to ram this justice through hell or high water. Maybe dems can scare them enough that if they do vote in a lame duck they will pack the courts.
IF kelly wins that brings it to 48/52 and lowzki has said she is a no that beings it to 51/49.He can only afforded 2 more.
collins, romony and grassey also seem like no but they are not confirmed
Senator Ed Markey: “Mitch McConnell set the precedent. No Supreme Court vacancies filled in an election year. If he violates it, when Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress, we must abolish the filibuster and expand the Supreme Court.”
repubs are playing with fire if biden wins and they vote to confirm
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On September 19 2020 10:30 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 09:57 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Well that didn't take long, Mitch McConnell will bring Trump's SC nominee to a vote
The left needs to read this and know what it says. It says "fundamentally, we are at war with the other party, and we will not sway from our fight".
So you're heading to Canada soon  ?
I'll be shocked if Democrats don't get outmaneuvered on this.
On September 19 2020 10:33 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:28 Danglars wrote:On September 19 2020 09:19 Nevuk wrote:
The GOP ramming through a replacement would be a tactically good move, but strategically idiotic.
In the short run it'd guarantee them the seat, but in the long run it would have one of two outcomes. Court packing the next second there is a democratic trifecta (this can be done with a simple majority, as the only thing ever preventing it was the 60 vote filibuster which has already been revoked), or it will result in the SC losing all legitimacy.
The SC's entire power comes from being a trusted institution. People on both sides assume that they generally make rulings in good faith. The people currently on the court, aside from Kavanaugh, seem to understand this on varying levels (some very well, like Roberts, some only somewhat like Thomas). It's why their rulings are always so narrow, especially when it is a controversial ruling, and why they are small c conservative generally - they dislike making large changes. If the SC says something is unconstitutional, and the legislative and executive branches disagree - they can just ignore it (especially if it's overwhelmingly popular). They have no army or police force. It's happened in the past, albeit not for almost 200 years.
The "compromise" option that they may go with is a Gorsuch type - someone so ridiculously qualified that they deserve to be on the bench. However, I don't know how many of those are floating out there that will fit these criteria: will vote the way the GOP wants, qualified enough, and dumb enough to agree to something that WILL make them the most hated person after Trump in the country. I think court-packing is in the cards even if this one is delayed. Biden doesn't have the balls, he's an old conservative. He values propriety of the forms over winning. Liberals doesn't have anyone willing to shit all over the constitution to stick it to the right.
Biden (or centrist Dems) packing the court is fanciful on a level I can't even fathom.
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On September 19 2020 11:34 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:45 TheTenthDoc wrote:On September 19 2020 10:31 Danglars wrote:On September 19 2020 10:27 Introvert wrote:
For RGB it will be Amy Coney Barrett unless something goes wrong. That's why she wasn't picked for the last seat. Moderates like Murkowski and Collins are probably gonna flip with a quick appointment. I don't see Trump's pick going through, save for a 50-50 tie with Pence casting the deciding vote. We'll see. My gut says appointments defeated. I think Collins will definitely base her decision entirely off electoral math and being pragmatic. She has always maneuvered around re-election, even if she has a very poor idea of what will help her with that, and she could really use something to wash the stink she accumulated during Kavanough off her. I suspect it's very likely we see a shielded "no" vote from her on this, but I'd be shocked if McConnell lets it be anything but a posturing vote with 52 Rs in favor. She may also just lie before the election and change afterwards; she clearly has no problem with faking obfuscating stupidity. The one saving grace of an R appointment going through is that I'm pretty sure it would give the Dems a much better path towards a Senate majority in 2020. McConnell's statement also leaves open the chance to do the absolutely disgusting possibility of "float names->have hearing and vote after the election->install R appointee during Trump's lame duck period" even if Dems win the Senate. And I have 0 doubt he will do just that. As with the Republican failure to repeal Obamacare, I don't think McConnell has any leverage to persuade votes. There could be 4 R Senators unwilling to appoint a Trump justice. Either from a sense of fair play, or some ideological position on the split of the court. The emotion she should feel from Kavanaugh is pride. She made the right decision in trying circumstances. Not to relitigate Kavanaugh when there's so much new stuff to handle.
I mean, it's immaterial how Collins "should" feel about Kavanaugh-between the millions of dollars raised to defeat her, her sinking in the polls, and his rulings surrounding precedent contradicting her justifications for him not overturning Roe, her vote there has been catastrophic for her 2020 chances and I don't think she can win her seat unless she votes "no" on any Trump nominations (indeed the only way she votes "yes" is probably if she thinks she is guaranteed to lose her seat). Fingers crossed there are a few others who can do that calculus.
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On September 19 2020 10:33 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 10:28 Danglars wrote:On September 19 2020 09:19 Nevuk wrote:
The GOP ramming through a replacement would be a tactically good move, but strategically idiotic.
In the short run it'd guarantee them the seat, but in the long run it would have one of two outcomes. Court packing the next second there is a democratic trifecta (this can be done with a simple majority, as the only thing ever preventing it was the 60 vote filibuster which has already been revoked), or it will result in the SC losing all legitimacy.
The SC's entire power comes from being a trusted institution. People on both sides assume that they generally make rulings in good faith. The people currently on the court, aside from Kavanaugh, seem to understand this on varying levels (some very well, like Roberts, some only somewhat like Thomas). It's why their rulings are always so narrow, especially when it is a controversial ruling, and why they are small c conservative generally - they dislike making large changes. If the SC says something is unconstitutional, and the legislative and executive branches disagree - they can just ignore it (especially if it's overwhelmingly popular). They have no army or police force. It's happened in the past, albeit not for almost 200 years.
The "compromise" option that they may go with is a Gorsuch type - someone so ridiculously qualified that they deserve to be on the bench. However, I don't know how many of those are floating out there that will fit these criteria: will vote the way the GOP wants, qualified enough, and dumb enough to agree to something that WILL make them the most hated person after Trump in the country. I think court-packing is in the cards even if this one is delayed. Biden doesn't have the balls, he's an old conservative. He values propriety of the forms over winning. Liberals doesn't have anyone willing to shit all over the constitution to stick it to the right.
I actually think the pressure from Democrats might be enough to push Biden to do it.
I think it's abundantly clear that most of the legitimacy that we thought was inherent in our government is non-existent and was merely a function of decorum and decency. I think that there is a not-insignificant chance of true political unrest and violence depending on how the next couple months go.
I think the best thing for the country would be if a couple Republicans actually showed some integrity and stopped this confirmation from happening.
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I think this vote is very risky thinking about it.
Like some others have said i dont think there is enough will to pack a 5-4 court but i really see a confirmation vote as giving dems that push. Dem senators and the party as a whole are going to be furious and i really think this will be enough. Do you keep the safe 5-4 or go for risky 6-3.
Also this dooms the senate. Most people have the senate at 50-50 right now with biden winning so it could go ether way right now in the senate. I think a confirmation vote not only dooms Collins and Tills who look like they are going to lose but are still close but puts like 3 to 5 more seats that look like the repubs are going to hold in peril.
Ernst
Daines
Graham
Both gerogia seats.
You could be giving dems 55 seats and with 2022 looking so bad for the repubs, i think there is like 7 to 9(not sure though) pickup chances the dems and not very many for the repbus. You are giving them super majority odds. The dem senate in 2024 is looking even worse then 2022 for the repubs but a 8 to 14 seat gain is still pushing it. So that is 2026 you are looking at getting back in power in the senate at soonest.
All this risk and strong likehood that a dem majority just takes the court back anyway will have to give some senators pause.I still think they take it but it is not as straightforward as it seems.
All of this assumes biden wins though
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On September 19 2020 14:01 Shingi11 wrote:
I think this vote is very risky thinking about it.
Like some others have said i dont think there is enough will to pack a 5-4 court but i really see a confirmation vote as giving dems that push. Dem senators and the party as a whole are going to be furious and i really think this will be enough. Do you keep the safe 5-4 or go for risky 6-3.
Also this dooms the senate. Most people have the senate at 50-50 right now with biden winning so it could go ether way right now in the senate. I think a confirmation vote not only dooms Collins and Tills who look like they are going to lose but are still close but puts like 3 to 5 more seats that look like the repubs are going to hold in peril.
Ernst
Daines
Graham
Both gerogia seats.
You could be giving dems 55 seats and with 2022 looking so bad for the repubs, i think there is like 7 to 9(not sure though) pickup chances the dems and not very many for the repbus. You are giving them super majority odds. The dem senate in 2024 is looking even worse then 2022 for the dems but a 8 to 14 seat gain is still pushing it. So that is 2026 you are looking at getting back in power in the senate at soonest.
All this risk and strong likehood that a dem majority just takes the court back anyway will have to give some senators pause.I still think they take it but it is not as straightforward as it seems.
All of this assumes biden wins though
I'm curious what the prognostication looks like if he loses?
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On September 19 2020 14:05 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2020 14:01 Shingi11 wrote:
I think this vote is very risky thinking about it.
Like some others have said i dont think there is enough will to pack a 5-4 court but i really see a confirmation vote as giving dems that push. Dem senators and the party as a whole are going to be furious and i really think this will be enough. Do you keep the safe 5-4 or go for risky 6-3.
Also this dooms the senate. Most people have the senate at 50-50 right now with biden winning so it could go ether way right now in the senate. I think a confirmation vote not only dooms Collins and Tills who look like they are going to lose but are still close but puts like 3 to 5 more seats that look like the repubs are going to hold in peril.
Ernst
Daines
Graham
Both gerogia seats.
You could be giving dems 55 seats and with 2022 looking so bad for the repubs, i think there is like 7 to 9(not sure though) pickup chances the dems and not very many for the repbus. You are giving them super majority odds. The dem senate in 2024 is looking even worse then 2022 for the dems but a 8 to 14 seat gain is still pushing it. So that is 2026 you are looking at getting back in power in the senate at soonest.
All this risk and strong likehood that a dem majority just takes the court back anyway will have to give some senators pause.I still think they take it but it is not as straightforward as it seems.
All of this assumes biden wins though I'm curious what the prognostication looks like if he loses?
While i know the possibility is still there it is looking pretty bleak for trump. He is broke and has pulled out of 5 battlegrouds states tell at least mid October. And i know you are probley going to say "but Hillary", biden is in a much stronger position then she ever was. Trump is getting crushed almost everywhere. Trump still has a very narrow path but i just dont see him threading that needle at the moment. I would personally much rather be biden then trump right now.
That is why i think it is a risky proposition since all the writing on the wall says trump loses.
Also it is moot point since if trump wins it is a very easy confirm since all the stakes are gone. It is just right now it looks like it is more likey that they are ether going to ram a justice through before the election writh trump losing or after he loses in a lame duck.
edit.
Also in any scenario where trump wins i dont also see dems winning back the senate so there is also that. Dems are probley getting 48-49 in a trump win. I dont see any possibly of trump winning but dems getting 51
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It is impressive how republicans can show that they don't care about anything but winning. Any principles they claim to care about, they are willing to immediately take a 180° opposed stance on if that would give them any advantage.
I don't think we needed more proof on this, but i think at this point it should be abundantly clear that arguing with them is pointless, because all of their arguments are lies they don't care about anyways.
The only principles they actually care about are: Discriminating against gay people, women, black people and anyone else they can find. Making it easier for the ultrarich to exploit everyone else. Being a general asshole whenever possible. And possibly making america more fascist.
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EPT
