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What people say to pollsters and what people believe in their hearts isn't always the same.
If I were polled, and I hope I would vote accordingly, I'd say I care deeply about the issue and support the movement. If I'm being honest, though, all the data I've seen points to this is a color-blind problem in America that only happens to hit black people the hardest because they commit the most (violent) crimes and thus have more contact with the police.
I still remember quite vividly the army-esque police force that showed up to dismantle the Standing Rock protests, and if media weren't so biased, Daniel Shaver's execution (with the inevitable exonoration of the policeman who executed him) would be as well known as George Floyd's.
But I digress, I do sincerely hope that PhoenixVoid and Mohdoo's assessment that this will hurt, not help, Trump. But I still wonder if it even matters, since I would bet a month's wages on there not being free and fair elections this year.
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You're definitely not wrong on polling insight being a bit myopic and there are people who disapprove of Trump or approve of the protests but will vote along party lines regardless. Neither is this an unshakable lead for Biden yet because a lot can go wrong or is going wrong for him today. But the winds of momentum have shifted to the Democrats with the pandemic and Floyd protests, and if it can be harnessed into reliable voters, volunteers and donors, I see it as a massive coup for them in the uphill race for president and the Senate.
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On June 08 2020 02:03 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Unlike past protests/riots over police brutality and race, this one feels different. Normally I'd assume it would be for the benefit of Trump, as Tom Nichols and David Simon commented, but I can't recall this much public support for the cause and a fire to push for real reform. Admittedly anecdotal from gazing at internet comments, but there's a few Trump-supporting Americans and on-the-fence voters looking at him feeling like he's truly dipping into the authoritarian dictator playbook with his response to protestors and are reconsidering their decisions.
Some recent polling, albeit early, I've seen is showing a majority support for the protests and a decline in the approval of Trump, which to me indicates his law and order strategy isn't as effective yet. Biden's been seeing a surge in donations and publicity, and the newfound enthusiasm for voting doesn't sound like something that works to the benefit of Trump. Maybe things change if the protests drag on and the rioters grow far more violent, but so far I haven't seen this be a win for Trump.
I think the overwhelming public support is because it's a perfect storm of this being a police killing where there is not even remotely a question of whether or not it was justified, people appalled at the last 4 years and Trump's limp-dick response to this issue, and pent up frustration over being cooped up for months with outstanding rates of unemployment which have primarily hit the most vulnerable.
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Yeah I think this is a bigger help for Biden than it is for Trump. The Democrat's biggest disadvantage is apathetic voters, and it is hard to remain apathetic in the face of so much conflict. No matter how lackluster Biden is, I think watching the current president teargassing peaceful protesters so he can take a political photo should be a strong motivator to get him out. I mean this is just a cherry on top of a mountain of diarrhea at this point but still.
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If coronavirus becomes a hot topic again Trump could try blaming the growing numbers on the "irresponsible radical left" and convince a lot of people that everything would be under control if not those "nasty rioters and their overlords". Two birds with one stone.
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On June 08 2020 01:57 Sr18 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2020 00:45 Mohdoo wrote:On June 08 2020 00:42 grack-fields-420 wrote:
Is there any way to look a these protests, riots and lootings and not come away with how beneficial this all is for Trump?
I can't imagine his base not being massively energized by 24/7 footage of black people looting stores on Fox News, nor can I even conceive of a peaceful transition of powers should he lose in November. Even the notion that there are going to be elections in the first place seems laughable to me, there's no way he's going to let that happen.
This all feels to me like the end of America as I knew it:
The GOP destroyed American democracy, Trump destroyed American diplomacy, political correctness and capitalism destroyed Americans cultural exports. Seems like the rise of China as the new global hegemon is perfectly inevitable at this point. And fuck if that's not a dark outlook. The idea that most cops are fundamentally bad people and are attracted to police work for the sake of having an opportunity to be awful is well understood by most people. Do you really believe a majority of the US population thinks that "most cops are fundamentally bad people" and only want to be a police officer for the "opportunity to be awful"? I highly doubt that's the case.
Last poll I saw, 69% of people in the US think that the police have a systemic problem with racism. That's way, way up from even 5-6 years ago. I don't know if that translates to "most cops are fundamentally bad", but most people do think there's a fundamental problem with the police.
Couple of news notes - Colin Powell went out and blasted Trump, saying he's backing Biden. GW Bush is also reportedly not voting for or willing to endorse Trump. Not sure how much these matter (Bush, not at all. Powell - maybe?)
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-04/how-camden-new-jersey-reformed-its-police-department
Apparently the thing we're all looking for has already happened in Camden, New Jersey. The police department was reformed in less then a decade and the city saw entirely peaceful protesting with the police department bringing an ice cream truck to the protest instead of riot gear. It still has the problems that the country has with an inability to recruit people from the inner city to the force (explicitly minorities) and there are some issues with low level crime going up. But the murder rate went from 67 to 25, excessive force complaints went down 95% and instead of bringing riot gear to the protests recently the police brought an ice cream truck.
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On June 08 2020 03:23 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2020 01:57 Sr18 wrote:On June 08 2020 00:45 Mohdoo wrote:On June 08 2020 00:42 grack-fields-420 wrote:
Is there any way to look a these protests, riots and lootings and not come away with how beneficial this all is for Trump?
I can't imagine his base not being massively energized by 24/7 footage of black people looting stores on Fox News, nor can I even conceive of a peaceful transition of powers should he lose in November. Even the notion that there are going to be elections in the first place seems laughable to me, there's no way he's going to let that happen.
This all feels to me like the end of America as I knew it:
The GOP destroyed American democracy, Trump destroyed American diplomacy, political correctness and capitalism destroyed Americans cultural exports. Seems like the rise of China as the new global hegemon is perfectly inevitable at this point. And fuck if that's not a dark outlook. The idea that most cops are fundamentally bad people and are attracted to police work for the sake of having an opportunity to be awful is well understood by most people. Do you really believe a majority of the US population thinks that "most cops are fundamentally bad people" and only want to be a police officer for the "opportunity to be awful"? I highly doubt that's the case. Last poll I saw, 69% of people in the US think that the police have a systemic problem with racism. That's way, way up from even 5-6 years ago. I don't know if that translates to "most cops are fundamentally bad", but most people do think there's a fundamental problem with the police. Couple of news notes - Colin Powell went out and blasted Trump, saying he's backing Biden. GW Bush is also reportedly not voting for or willing to endorse Trump. Not sure how much these matter (Bush, not at all. Powell - maybe?)
If Bush were to openly endorse Biden I guarantee that would be enough to flip texas blue. Bush was always very popular with Hispanics (for a republican) and he represents the ideal Texan politician.
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On June 08 2020 03:07 Sent. wrote:
If coronavirus becomes a hot topic again Trump could try blaming the growing numbers on the "irresponsible radical left" and convince a lot of people that everything would be under control if not those "nasty rioters and their overlords". Two birds with one stone.
My take on the coronavirus' impact on the election is pretty morbid, but it's basically less what the public's perception is, but who dies. I think the ideological lines are pretty hard-set, and most people are locked into their view of the crisis. The question is where the virus hits hard (e.g., major swing states) and who it kills (e.g., older white people, or minorities).
Even if the perception of who's at fault for the pandemic response changes, it wouldn't matter as much if Trump has tens of thousands of fewer voters in key swing states. Like I said, pretty morbid to think about
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I've seen some opinions that a GWB endorsement could swing Texas or make it very expensive to hold for the Republicans, but I also wonder if an endorsement from Dubya and former administration staff might be a hinderance for Biden. There's still a bad taste left from the lies and deaths of Afghanistan and Iraq, and having the architects of those wars on Biden's camp could be a liability. Maybe that's why it's been reported and not publicly announced so they can gauge the reaction.
The endorsements and anti-endorsements from people like Bush, Powell and Romney may shift a handful of independents and Republicans away from Trump, but when you break from Trump you're denounced as a RINO traitor or deep state operative pedophile (like Mattis recently) so I don't expect likely Trump voters to rethink their votes. Trump did just fine without the Bushes on his side in 2016 and he'll probably be fine without them this year. Only Powell's actually gone as far as to endorse Biden, so if people are taking Bush and Romney's lead, they could go third-party or write-in a candidate and not be as much of an asset as expected.
On June 08 2020 04:59 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2020 04:43 Anc13nt wrote:
i'm glad the center right seems to be coming to it's senses about how bad Donald Trump is. We'll have to see if that actually sways their votes at all for the general election. That's the part that matters imo.
A lot of opinion changing can take place between the summer and fall and people's memories are short. It was coronavirus and now Floyd's protests as the talking point of today and knowing what 2020 has offered so far, there could be more. The center-right who blast Trump now may fall back into their habits because in the end, they align with the GOP's agenda. Same with the protestors who are a great opportunity for the Democrats to gain enthusiastic support, but they need to make strong inroads with police reform policies and correcting the racial divide to capture that ferventness into voting all the way to November. Otherwise they won't be enthusiastic for Biden and may stay home or go third-party.
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I doubt anyone who turns away from Biden because of a Bush endorsement lives in a state that actually swings the election. If you turn Texas blue at the expense of some Californian progressives that'd be a huge win
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Voting and the current uprising in the streets are quite disconnected. The Mayor of Minneapolis's walk of shame is just a sample of what someone like Biden would get with his "shoot em in the leg" type proposals.
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i'm glad the center right seems to be coming to it's senses about how bad Donald Trump is.
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On June 08 2020 04:43 Anc13nt wrote:
i'm glad the center right seems to be coming to it's senses about how bad Donald Trump is.
We'll have to see if that actually sways their votes at all for the general election. That's the part that matters imo.
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James Bennet has resigned as head of the editorial board after the fiasco with the Cotton op-ed, where Cotton called for military intervention against protests.
Deputy editorial page editor Jim Dao also is stepping down, but I don't know what this position does.
The staff and file at the NYT openly revolted, basically all issuing public statements that the op-ed was dangerous.
Afterwards, Bennet admitted he hadn't read the op-ed before publication and a note of "should not have been published" was added.
(source for resignation. NY times press release : )
https://www.nytco.com/press/james-bennet-resigns-as-editorial-page-editor-of-the-new-york-times-katie-kingsbury-named-acting-editorial-page-editor/
Hopefully the editorial pages get better ... they've issued some insane op-eds in the last few years (didn't they publish one from an open white supremacist? or something like that). There's also been those bizarre David Brooks columns where he threw a hissy fit about being called a bed bug.
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I think I’m gonna subscribe to the NYT finally, the piece I read that laid out what occurred with regards to the publication of Cotton’s fascist trash talk was compelling stuff.
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GWB won't endorse anyone, and it wouldn't matter. I think Powell endorsed Obama and hasn't endorsed a Republican since (even Romney)... and I'm not sure someone so closely associated with the Iraq war is going to be of any value. These orange man bad GOP types have far less influence than their media presence would lead one to believe. Trump's support within the party is sky-high, those who maybe were Republican but no longer identify as such are most likely voting for Biden anyways. No Republican politician who wants a political future is going to endorse Biden (e.g., the Bush kids in Texas).
If Texas is the flipping point than the election already over. I think Trump does and will have more money (and probably more mental/physical strength) to campaign more; if I'm Biden I focus on other states and hope the coronavirus panic lasts longer so I can keep hiding out in the basement.
And the NYT has finally lost the minuscule amount of courage they had left.
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On June 08 2020 06:51 Introvert wrote:
GWB won't endorse anyone, and it wouldn't matter. I think Powell endorsed Obama and hasn't endorsed a Republican since (even Romney)... and I'm not sure someone so closely associated with the Iraq war is going to be of any value. These orange man bad GOP types have far less influence than their media presence would lead one to believe. Trump's support within the party is sky-high, those who maybe were Republican but no longer identify as such are most likely voting for Biden anyways. No Republican politician who wants a political future is going to endorse Biden (e.g., the Bush kids in Texas).
If Texas is the flipping point than the election already over. I think Trump does and will have more money (and probably more mental/physical strength) to campaign more; if I'm Biden I focus on other states and hope the coronavirus panic lasts longer so I can keep hiding out in the basement.
And the NYT has finally lost the minuscule amount of courage they had left.
Would you say you support Trump at this point, or are you just against Democrats? Lots of people have been very clear they wish the republican party wasn't the party of trump and I could have sworn you were among them. Has that changed?
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On June 08 2020 06:54 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2020 06:51 Introvert wrote:
GWB won't endorse anyone, and it wouldn't matter. I think Powell endorsed Obama and hasn't endorsed a Republican since (even Romney)... and I'm not sure someone so closely associated with the Iraq war is going to be of any value. These orange man bad GOP types have far less influence than their media presence would lead one to believe. Trump's support within the party is sky-high, those who maybe were Republican but no longer identify as such are most likely voting for Biden anyways. No Republican politician who wants a political future is going to endorse Biden (e.g., the Bush kids in Texas).
If Texas is the flipping point than the election already over. I think Trump does and will have more money (and probably more mental/physical strength) to campaign more; if I'm Biden I focus on other states and hope the coronavirus panic lasts longer so I can keep hiding out in the basement.
And the NYT has finally lost the minuscule amount of courage they had left. Would you say you support Trump at this point, or are you just against Democrats? Lots of people have been very clear they wish the republican party wasn't the party of trump and I could have sworn you were among them. Has that changed?
I sincerely wish we had someone else as president because Trump is incapable being the person we need (imo what we need is a boring person as president, and someone who will tell Congress to start doing their job again). He contributes to, but is not the cause of, so many of the issues we have. However, he is so much better than I thought he would be and many of the people to whom he gives a rhetorical smackdown are people who very, very richly deserve it. That being said, the Democrats are actually nuts and Biden has spent years being a slimball, so his unifier shtick is just another lie from a serial liar.
As for me, I'm not deciding until election day what I'm going to do. But what I said in the quoted post was moreso my analysis. As an objective matter, the best numbers we have tell us Trump is incredibly popular within his own party. Someone like Powell, who couldn't even support fellow squish Mitt Romney, is not going to move people who still call themselves Republicans. The media beating Bush and Romney took without any fighting back is, I think, the single biggest reason Trump won the GOP nomination. So I think they are very close to irrelevant. There is a lot of "I think" in there, this is just my opinion...but to me the political analysis done in this thread is very clearly affected by a bubble phenomenon.
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On June 08 2020 05:47 Nevuk wrote:James Bennet has resigned as head of the editorial board after the fiasco with the Cotton op-ed, where Cotton called for military intervention against protests. Deputy editorial page editor Jim Dao also is stepping down, but I don't know what this position does. The staff and file at the NYT openly revolted, basically all issuing public statements that the op-ed was dangerous. Afterwards, Bennet admitted he hadn't read the op-ed before publication and a note of "should not have been published" was added. (source for resignation. NY times press release : ) https://www.nytco.com/press/james-bennet-resigns-as-editorial-page-editor-of-the-new-york-times-katie-kingsbury-named-acting-editorial-page-editor/Hopefully the editorial pages get better ... they've issued some insane op-eds in the last few years (didn't they publish one from an open white supremacist? or something like that). There's also been those bizarre David Brooks columns where he threw a hissy fit about being called a bed bug.
The majority of people who wanted that op-Ed to never be published didn’t read it. He never even mentioned action against the protesters, just looters and rioters.
In any case, during the worst week of riots, that was an opinion shared by almost 60% of Americans. The stance basically is, you can’t allow a sitting US senator from the majority party of the senate make a good faith argument that the majority of Americans agree with.
That’s sad, and people who call him a fascist are worse still. Misinform and omit opinions from your readers, because that’s what the alleged paper of record is meant to do. What a dark day for our nation. It’s like campus protests against free speech grew up and took over a newspaper. (And I want to commend actual journalists like Bari Weiss for talking back against the mob demanding firings and censorship.)
Edit: Let's add her perspective for good measure here
From the article, maybe some historical perspective that nobody knew. This could be that Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, GHWBush were all fascists, or maybe shouldn't have been allowed to argue in an op-ed for their actions. Content warning since some people believe that reading this might sway you to fascism:
For instance, during the 1950s and 1960s, Presidents Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson called out the military to disperse mobs that prevented school desegregation or threatened innocent lives and property. This happened in my own state. Gov. Orval Faubus, a racist Democrat, mobilized our National Guard in 1957 to obstruct desegregation at Little Rock Central High School. President Eisenhower federalized the Guard and called in the 101st Airborne in response. The failure to do so, he said, “would be tantamount to acquiescence in anarchy.”
More recently, President George H.W. Bush ordered the Army’s Seventh Infantry and 1,500 Marines to protect Los Angeles during race riots in 1992. He acknowledged his disgust at Rodney King’s treatment — “what I saw made me sick” — but he knew deadly rioting would only multiply the victims, of all races and from all walks of life.
Not surprisingly, public opinion is on the side of law enforcement and law and order, not insurrectionists. According to a recent poll, 58 percent of registered voters, including nearly half of Democrats and 37 percent of African-Americans, would support cities’ calling in the military to “address protests and demonstrations” that are in “response to the death of George Floyd.” That opinion may not appear often in chic salons, but widespread support for it is fact nonetheless.
The American people aren’t blind to injustices in our society, but they know that the most basic responsibility of government is to maintain public order and safety. In normal times, local law enforcement can uphold public order. But in rare moments, like ours today, more is needed, even if many politicians prefer to wring their hands while the country burns.
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