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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 182

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
May 10 2018 01:14 GMT
#3621
The war lovers need to be at the front queue of the draft, that's for sure.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 01:17:36
May 10 2018 01:16 GMT
#3622
On May 10 2018 09:20 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Firstly, my apologies if my understanding of the deal and surrounding events is lacking. I haven't really had time to read up on it and mostly joined the argument due to generic opposition towards the might makes right justification for foreign policy. (The way I see it, people's belief in or acceptance of this principle is the chief explanation for most worldly atrocities that happen, not just on a country to country basis but on an individual to individual basis too. I feel it is my moral obligation to inspire people to critically examine the way they relate to this issue.)

It's very questionable whether the US has any moral high ground over Iran when examining their relationship with each other or their general support of terrorist groups in other countries or their tendency to destabilize other countries or their tendency to invade other countries. To me, it would seem Iran requiring the US to halt support of Saudi Arabia (specifically in light of the ongoing conflict in Yemen) before they are willing to denuclearize is a comparable request to the US requiring Iran to stop support of Hamas or Hezbollah before lifting / not implementing sanctions. The chief difference being that the US is more powerful thus more able to dictate the weaker countries -> thus the only reason I see for supporting the US claim without also supporting a similar Iranian claim (which the US would obviously never accept) would have to be the belief that the US is entitled to make claims from others that they would not be willing to agree to themselves because they are mightier. I can't agree with this. Then I would argue that current american actions work to limit future american power because you are in serious danger of extinguishing the remaining good will you have from your most historically important allies. So even from a completely amoral realpolitik-perspective, I don't see how american actions make any sense.

In terms of Iran supporting Hezbollah or Hamas, I don't want to justify that. I also don't know nearly enough about intricacies of the generic middle east conflict to make a coherent and factual post on how Iran benefits. I assume from an Iranian perspective however, there is something to be gained from it - or they would stop. That said, I think hindering nuclear proliferation seems significantly more important than stopping Iranian support of Hezbollah or Hamas. Humanity has survived countless wars - and even genocides. Although nukes so far can certainly be credited with keeping the peace between major powers, they also represent an actual threat to the future of humanity.


just on the "So even from a completely amoral realpolitik-perspective, I don't see how american actions make any sense." part... let's be real here. It's probably a combination of 3 things:

a) Trump talked shit about the deal for years and he doesn't want to look like what he'd call weak. So he has to follow up on his words, no matter what those words are (this is applicable in a lot of scenarios, or at least it looks that way to me)
b) Republicans care about making Isreal look good... (sry, I don't know how to phrase this without sounding stupid... "Republicans care about Isreal" would imply that Democrats don't whereas it's more about Democrats being willing to criticize them in some situations while it seems that's not an option for Republicans)
c) Trump probably assumes that this will hurt others more than the US. Nations tend to trade with other closeby nations moreso than with nations on the other side of the globe aside for some exceptions like China etc. The US trades more with Canada and Mexico than Europe does. Germany on the other hand trades more with France than the US would for example. And Iran, due to it's geographical location is more likely to fall into the European/Asian economical influence. So he's probably thinking to himself that this will hurt European and Asian interests, which is a good thing for him.

Not saying "it makes sense" but I can see why he does it
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28606 Posts
May 10 2018 01:23 GMT
#3623
Well okay it makes sense from a 'domestic realpolitik' scenario where trump cares much more about winning the next election than about furthering american interests. no issue from me on that.
Moderator
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 10 2018 01:28 GMT
#3624
I'd say he disagrees with you and me on what American interests are though. For example my third point, I'm pretty sure he actually thinks hurting European and Asian interests is a good thing for America because that's the kind of zero-sum game he assumes it to be and hence leaves the US as winners by default.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35118 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 01:45:20
May 10 2018 01:44 GMT
#3625
On May 10 2018 10:14 Doodsmack wrote:
The war lovers need to be at the front queue of the draft, that's for sure.

The problem is then we deal with the sunken cost fallacy in times and lives and they just dig even deeper into the war camp.

An active military culture only breeds more of it.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
May 10 2018 01:51 GMT
#3626
Trumps view of foreign policy as binary. There are winners and losers, and any deal that doesn’t favor the US directly needs to end or be reworked. This transactional thinking works in business world. But the foreigner policy goals of modern nations is co-existence first, national gain second. Because putting national gain first is what leads to wars.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
May 10 2018 02:10 GMT
#3627
On May 10 2018 10:51 Plansix wrote:
Trumps view of foreign policy as binary. There are winners and losers, and any deal that doesn’t favor the US directly needs to end or be reworked. This transactional thinking works in business world. But the foreigner policy goals of modern nations is co-existence first, national gain second. Because putting national gain first is what leads to wars.


Most business, especially for complex deals, is more about creating value and collaboration to some extent. However, Trump's version of business is transactional, and that's carried over to how he approaches domestic and foreign policy. You'll note that his business career was pretty mediocre.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23003 Posts
May 10 2018 03:39 GMT
#3628
On May 10 2018 01:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 01:01 Plansix wrote:
I will be surprised and disappointed if that happens down the line. She was ready to withdraw less than a week ago, so I’m not convinced it is a sure thing yet. McCain isn’t there to vote and he wouldn’t vote for her anyways, so the margin is super thin.


If the glad handing she was doing after the questions was any indication she's definitely getting in. All the CIA folks on MSNBC have been caping for her and she's got bipartisan support throughout the intelligence community. Democrats could stop this if they wanted, but if they were we'd already know. They aren't/we don't, so she's getting in.

Democrats are going to give Donald Trump a known torturer to lead his CIA and they already gave him a CIA ran state department by a guy who thinks he's in a holy war. Democrats need to stop punching left and start putting more pressure on the right flank of their party.


Avid torture advocate President Trump has locked in his first Democrat vote to put former torture supervisor Gina Haspel in charge of the CIA


"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15477 Posts
May 10 2018 04:12 GMT
#3629
On May 10 2018 12:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 01:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 01:01 Plansix wrote:
I will be surprised and disappointed if that happens down the line. She was ready to withdraw less than a week ago, so I’m not convinced it is a sure thing yet. McCain isn’t there to vote and he wouldn’t vote for her anyways, so the margin is super thin.


If the glad handing she was doing after the questions was any indication she's definitely getting in. All the CIA folks on MSNBC have been caping for her and she's got bipartisan support throughout the intelligence community. Democrats could stop this if they wanted, but if they were we'd already know. They aren't/we don't, so she's getting in.

Democrats are going to give Donald Trump a known torturer to lead his CIA and they already gave him a CIA ran state department by a guy who thinks he's in a holy war. Democrats need to stop punching left and start putting more pressure on the right flank of their party.


Avid torture advocate President Trump has locked in his first Democrat vote to put former torture supervisor Gina Haspel in charge of the CIA

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/994293434713161728

He's still technically a net positive compared to a republican holding his seat. But not by a lot.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 04:30:59
May 10 2018 04:27 GMT
#3630
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23003 Posts
May 10 2018 05:00 GMT
#3631
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
ImFromPortugal
Profile Joined April 2010
Portugal1368 Posts
May 10 2018 05:52 GMT
#3632
On May 10 2018 07:58 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 07:53 KwarK wrote:
On May 10 2018 07:47 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 07:38 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 07:17 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 07:02 IyMoon wrote:
On May 10 2018 06:46 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
On May 10 2018 06:14 Mohdoo wrote:
I think Trump scuttled the Iran deal in part to improve the bargaining process with North Korea. He wants North Korea to know that he will gladly burn down his own house (sanctions against European countries that should utterly destroy our economy) for the sake of punishing people who don't play by the rules.

I think it is also likely that Trump will, once North Korea appears somewhat "complete", revisit the Iran deal, make some silly demand about terrorism, they will comply, then Trump will be like "I just made us an Iran deal that wipes out Terrorism!"


That is such a huge gamble that it just might be what he is thinking lol.

Trump: I WILL SHOW NK THAT I CAN'T BE FUCKED WITH!!!!
NK: Well fuck you, we see you dont honor deals
Trump: That was not what I expected.....


My impression of the situation is that Trump is saying the deal isn't good enough. So long as Iran is still being an ass in some way, fuck Iran. I am being very generous here, but I think it is a feeling shared by a lot of conservatives.

"Why should we ease ANYTHING on Iran when they are still funding (some random ass Muslim terrorist group) which kills US troops??"

And while the obvious answer is "because this is still a notable net positive", people who are religious tend to be overly rigid and are well accustomed to "you are either good or you are bad" types of thinking.

And it is a perspective I can somewhat appreciate, but it assumes a manifest destiny'esque impression/perspective of the US and its place in the world. It assumes we can make demands like "Stop being an ass in ANY way whatsoever, then we deal" and have it go well. Many of these people simply don't understand the US only gained as much influence as it did because everyone else was kind of a mess. With Europe and Asia cranking it up, limitless demands will eventually not be possible for us. But Trump wants to see if we still got it.

So you could say Trump's Iran rhetoric is intended to show Kim that NK needs to *actually* stop being shitbags. It won't be good enough for Kim to be like "ok, no more tests, but we keep our nukes?". Either NK joins the world or it doesn't. No matter half ass bullshit.

And you could argue that when Iran sees North Korea suddenly being pleasant with the US, they will know we mean it when we say we'll encourage trade and give a bunch of money and shit like that, so long as you COMPLETELY follow the rules and you are ACTUALLY not being a shitbag anymore.

In my eyes, so long as Iran is funding groups that shoot at Americans, the entire thing could be said to be a sham. It is still a net positive and I still totally support the Iran deal because I am not a dumbass. But it is easy to appreciate the perspective that it is somewhat of a sham and that Iran still actively kills Americans.

What if Iran could just be some normal-ass country trading with everyone and generally being peaceful and nice? I think Trump is so ignorant of the history that he's like "I can't believe we let Iran just be an asshole and we do nothing about it"


That is the problem though isn't it? According to the world Iran was following the rules. And to them they are not being shitbags at all. One mans shitbag is another mans freedom fighter or something like that


I think there is a lot of value in saying "fuck moral relativism, we need to actually get somewhere". Which perspective dominates the world? Do we really benefit from indulging bullshit Disney princess fantasies of Palestinians taking back Jerusalem? Or do we just say "ya know, you lost buddy". In the case of Iran's freedom fighters, you could practically chalk the whole thing up to being a sore loser. It's not like there is ever going to be some kinda Muslim retaking of the global economy and military. Hamas and Hezbollah lost. Neither of them will ever accomplish their stated goals. But they fight on because of appeals to emotion and bullshit Disney fantasies.

In my eyes, it comes down to something like: Polling major Euro countries, major Asian countries, North America, and maybe Russia: Hezbollah...good or bad? If most people say bad, fuck Hezbollah. At one point you just need to move on. Indulging moral relativism by allowing Iran to keep funding terrorism while also at least not making nukes isn't a very satisfying end.

Not all wars are fought until annihilation. The south surrendered because it wasn't going to do any good to keep fighting. Many surrenders occur when it just doesn't make sense anymore. You could easily argue Hezbollah and Hamas are just the result of bitterness. The point of a fight should be to win, not defiance. Hezbollah and Hamas are about as far from victory as it gets. It is reasonable to ask Iran to just dump that whole stupid ass project.


This is quite a ringing endorsement of "might makes right" in the 21st century. What by chance do you suggest is done with the 'losers' who refuse to accept the conditions of the 'winners'?


Might makes right absolutely has its place. It is the entire world we live in. We speak English, not German, because of "might makes right". Your question is already in practice. Iran is whiny about losing, so they do some stupid shit, but not stupid enough to justify tons of people dying. So we do sanctions and this and that as a way of applying this and that pressure. Iran's lack of compliance is emotionally and religiously motivated. If this was a game of BW, we would all be rolling our eyes at the dumbass who won't just gg out. Since these are actual human lives that people value, we don't just send enough troops to where Iran loses and we still technically win. No one is going to support 200,000 American lives being lost just for the sake of Iran bending the knee. It's just not worth it.

To answer your question, just look at the world. That is what happens when the losers don't accept the conditions of the winners.

We had to do the whole thing with Germany because of the exact philosophy that you are currently espousing. Seriously. There were a few chapters in Mein Kampf about the arbitrary nature of borders, homelands, etc and how the existing situation is simply the cumulative result of past injustices. He argued that logically one could do any amount of injustices today against any number of people and a generation later all sins would be forgiven and the new status quo would be the natural one.

I mention this because you brought up speaking German. Apparently while their language didn't stick their philosophy did.


I think you are making silly comparisons. Germany conquering Europe is very different from our current situation. The war of dominance was won a long time ago. Political and military dynamics are super different now anyway. Major wars don't happen anymore because of mutually assured destruction. None of these comparisons make sense. WW3 will never happen. Influence and military dominance work differently now.

The fact of the matter is: Hamas and Hezbollah have a 0% chance of ever accomplishing their major goals. Iran funds them because of bullshit religious reasons, not because they would gamble their rent money on an eventual victory.

I'll phrase it this way: What long term benefits do you see resulting from Iran's support for Hezbollah and Hamas?


Projection of force and control over vast regions of the middleast , Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen.. why should they give up on this power, that would be inviting it's enemies to attack. You guys have been threatening Iran for decades with death and destruction, you should just move on and accept that there are countries that won't tolerate bullies.
Yes im
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15477 Posts
May 10 2018 06:08 GMT
#3633
On May 10 2018 14:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?

Right and she lost terribly because West Virginia is... West Virginia.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23003 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 06:24:39
May 10 2018 06:16 GMT
#3634
On May 10 2018 15:08 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 14:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?

Right and she lost terribly because West Virginia is... West Virginia.


She lost but she got more votes than any of the Republicans (given their votes were more split) with the entire Democratic machine behind her opponent and starting with 0 name recognition. Worth noting Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in WV by more than 15%.

The whole "It's West Virginia, so it's either someone who supports Trump most of the time or someone who suppoorts Trump all of the time" doesn't mean Manchin should be welcome in the party. If he actually cares about the things Dems want his vote on, changing the letter after his name wouldn't change his votes anyway.

So let him run as the Republican-lite/Centrist he is and have the Democrat be a Democrat. But this whole "we need him" stuff just isn't an acceptable argument to me.

I don't buy this "WV is WV so we have to settle for Manchin" argument in the slightest. If that was the case Bernie wouldn't have beat Hillary there.

EDIT: Also let's not pretend Democrats think primaries are supposed to be real democratic exercises, they've made abundantly clear they are publicity stunts.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15477 Posts
May 10 2018 06:27 GMT
#3635
On May 10 2018 15:16 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 15:08 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 14:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?

Right and she lost terribly because West Virginia is... West Virginia.


She lost but she got more votes than any of the Republicans (given their votes were more split) with the entire Democratic machine behind her opponent and starting with 0 name recognition. Worth noting Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in WV by more than 15%.

The whole "It's West Virginia, so it's either someone who supports Trump most of the time or someone who suppoorts Trump all of the time" doesn't mean Manchin should be welcome in the party. If he actually cares about the things Dems want his vote on, changing the letter after his name wouldn't change his votes anyway.

So let him run as the Republican-lite/Centrist he is and have the Democrat be a Democrat. But this whole "we need him" stuff just isn't an acceptable argument to me.

I don't buy this "WV is WV so we have to settle for Manchin" argument in the slightest. If that was the case Bernie wouldn't have beat Hillary there.

EDIT: Also let's not pretend Democrats think primaries are supposed to be real democratic exercises, they've made abundantly clear they are publicity stunts.



I would say Clinton had more of a systematic advantage than Manchin. Having complete control of the party is a lot more intense than being heavily backed. I really think West Virginia just likes Manchin. Bernie winning West Virginia should have boded poorly for Manchin, right?
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23003 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 06:39:52
May 10 2018 06:38 GMT
#3636
On May 10 2018 15:27 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 15:16 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 15:08 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 14:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?

Right and she lost terribly because West Virginia is... West Virginia.


She lost but she got more votes than any of the Republicans (given their votes were more split) with the entire Democratic machine behind her opponent and starting with 0 name recognition. Worth noting Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in WV by more than 15%.

The whole "It's West Virginia, so it's either someone who supports Trump most of the time or someone who suppoorts Trump all of the time" doesn't mean Manchin should be welcome in the party. If he actually cares about the things Dems want his vote on, changing the letter after his name wouldn't change his votes anyway.

So let him run as the Republican-lite/Centrist he is and have the Democrat be a Democrat. But this whole "we need him" stuff just isn't an acceptable argument to me.

I don't buy this "WV is WV so we have to settle for Manchin" argument in the slightest. If that was the case Bernie wouldn't have beat Hillary there.

EDIT: Also let's not pretend Democrats think primaries are supposed to be real democratic exercises, they've made abundantly clear they are publicity stunts.



I would say Clinton had more of a systematic advantage than Manchin. Having complete control of the party is a lot more intense than being heavily backed. I really think West Virginia just likes Manchin. Bernie winning West Virginia should have boded poorly for Manchin, right?


He's got high name recognition, but it's not like many of his votes make any sense by way of helping west Virginians. West Virginians weren't clamoring for him to back Ben Carson for HUD for example.

He lost 30% of Democrats to someone who no one in the whole state heard of before she decided to run while still having the entire machine on his side and outspending her ~19:1.

That's a terribly weak performance for an incumbent up against a no name challenger that got basically 0 coverage.

So I mean whether he's more electable is questionable, but it seems that he's undeniably worse than his (D) opponent.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Womwomwom
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
5930 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 10:37:54
May 10 2018 10:24 GMT
#3637
On May 10 2018 15:27 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 15:16 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 15:08 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 14:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?

Right and she lost terribly because West Virginia is... West Virginia.


She lost but she got more votes than any of the Republicans (given their votes were more split) with the entire Democratic machine behind her opponent and starting with 0 name recognition. Worth noting Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in WV by more than 15%.

The whole "It's West Virginia, so it's either someone who supports Trump most of the time or someone who suppoorts Trump all of the time" doesn't mean Manchin should be welcome in the party. If he actually cares about the things Dems want his vote on, changing the letter after his name wouldn't change his votes anyway.

So let him run as the Republican-lite/Centrist he is and have the Democrat be a Democrat. But this whole "we need him" stuff just isn't an acceptable argument to me.

I don't buy this "WV is WV so we have to settle for Manchin" argument in the slightest. If that was the case Bernie wouldn't have beat Hillary there.

EDIT: Also let's not pretend Democrats think primaries are supposed to be real democratic exercises, they've made abundantly clear they are publicity stunts.



I would say Clinton had more of a systematic advantage than Manchin. Having complete control of the party is a lot more intense than being heavily backed. I really think West Virginia just likes Manchin. Bernie winning West Virginia should have boded poorly for Manchin, right?


West Virginia from everything I've read is no different from any mining town in Queensland or Western Australia. For them, then Labor PM Julia Gillard was the actual devil for even suggesting a resources tax. Mining jobs were extremely lucrative during the mining boom and no one wanted the gravy train to end.

Its important people remember that Clinton was getting hit really, really hard for this exact quote: "we're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business." Certainly misrepresented in its proper context but its one that both Bernie and Trump took advantage of as an example she was against working class Americans who work in primary and secondary industries.

So while Bernie won the state by 15%, the state also saw 12.7% of people voting for alternative candidates. Not just that, around 33% of people who voted for Bernie would have voted for Trump if Bernie was the Democratic Party's Presidential nominee. There was a huge backlash against Clinton for not only her image during the campaign but also her role in the Obama Administration where they saw her as an extension of. Neither candidate was seen sufficiently pro-coal enough, that's shown in the number of Democratic Primary voters willing to vote for Trump.

The only conclusion I have is that West Virginia just likes Manchin because he represents West Virginian values and their reactionary desire for coal to be king again. I dunno what he actually does for his state, like a lot of bad state representatives, but I doubt what candidate he votes for really rings in their mind. He could help vote in a war criminal and I suspect the general population would still be more concerned if their existing coal mining jobs were going to be maintained.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
May 10 2018 10:25 GMT
#3638
But she still lost by 20 points. The DCCC has some pull, but not 20 point worth of pull.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23003 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 10:40:25
May 10 2018 10:36 GMT
#3639
On May 10 2018 19:24 Womwomwom wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 15:27 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 15:16 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 15:08 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 14:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?

Right and she lost terribly because West Virginia is... West Virginia.


She lost but she got more votes than any of the Republicans (given their votes were more split) with the entire Democratic machine behind her opponent and starting with 0 name recognition. Worth noting Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in WV by more than 15%.

The whole "It's West Virginia, so it's either someone who supports Trump most of the time or someone who suppoorts Trump all of the time" doesn't mean Manchin should be welcome in the party. If he actually cares about the things Dems want his vote on, changing the letter after his name wouldn't change his votes anyway.

So let him run as the Republican-lite/Centrist he is and have the Democrat be a Democrat. But this whole "we need him" stuff just isn't an acceptable argument to me.

I don't buy this "WV is WV so we have to settle for Manchin" argument in the slightest. If that was the case Bernie wouldn't have beat Hillary there.

EDIT: Also let's not pretend Democrats think primaries are supposed to be real democratic exercises, they've made abundantly clear they are publicity stunts.



I would say Clinton had more of a systematic advantage than Manchin. Having complete control of the party is a lot more intense than being heavily backed. I really think West Virginia just likes Manchin. Bernie winning West Virginia should have boded poorly for Manchin, right?


West Virginia from everything I've read is no different from any mining town in Queensland or Western Australia. For them, then Labor PM Julia Gillard was the actual devil for even suggesting a resources tax. Mining jobs were extremely lucrative during the mining boom and no one wanted the gravy train to end.

Its important people remember that Clinton was getting hit really, really hard for this exact quote: "we're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business." Certainly misrepresented in its proper context but its one that both Bernie and Trump took advantage of as an example she was against working class Americans who work in primary and secondary industries.

So while Bernie won the state by 15%, the state also saw 12.7% of people voting for alternative candidates. Not just that, around 33% of people who voted for Bernie would have voted for Trump if Bernie was the Democratic Party's Presidential nominee. There was a huge backlash against Clinton for not only her image during the campaign but also her role in the Obama Administration where they saw her as an extension of - this is shown in both the Bernie and small candidate vote.

West Virginia just likes Manchin for whatever reason. I dunno what he actually does for his state, like a lot of bad state representatives, but I doubt what candidate he votes for really rings in their mind. He could help vote in a war criminal and I suspect the general population would still be more concerned if their existing coal mining jobs were going to be maintained.


So 30%+ of Bernie's primary voters would have voted Trump if Bernie was the nominee according to exit poll data. Interesting considering Republicans weren't allowed to vote in the Democratic primary.

But presuming the argument is that WV does like Joe Manchin, then fine, let them vote for him as a Republican or Independent. I don't see the benefit of him being welcomed in the Democratic party as he proudly proclaims to support a war criminal for head of CIA?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Womwomwom
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
5930 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-10 10:45:39
May 10 2018 10:40 GMT
#3640
On May 10 2018 19:36 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2018 19:24 Womwomwom wrote:
On May 10 2018 15:27 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 15:16 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 15:08 Mohdoo wrote:
On May 10 2018 14:00 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 10 2018 13:27 Plansix wrote:
McCain opposes her and a bunch of republicans are undecided. Manchin is a peice of shit, but West Virginia is not known for its quality Democratic challenges.


I'm not sure by what measure Manchin is supposed to be better than Paula Swearengin?

Right and she lost terribly because West Virginia is... West Virginia.


She lost but she got more votes than any of the Republicans (given their votes were more split) with the entire Democratic machine behind her opponent and starting with 0 name recognition. Worth noting Bernie Sanders beat Hillary in WV by more than 15%.

The whole "It's West Virginia, so it's either someone who supports Trump most of the time or someone who suppoorts Trump all of the time" doesn't mean Manchin should be welcome in the party. If he actually cares about the things Dems want his vote on, changing the letter after his name wouldn't change his votes anyway.

So let him run as the Republican-lite/Centrist he is and have the Democrat be a Democrat. But this whole "we need him" stuff just isn't an acceptable argument to me.

I don't buy this "WV is WV so we have to settle for Manchin" argument in the slightest. If that was the case Bernie wouldn't have beat Hillary there.

EDIT: Also let's not pretend Democrats think primaries are supposed to be real democratic exercises, they've made abundantly clear they are publicity stunts.



I would say Clinton had more of a systematic advantage than Manchin. Having complete control of the party is a lot more intense than being heavily backed. I really think West Virginia just likes Manchin. Bernie winning West Virginia should have boded poorly for Manchin, right?


West Virginia from everything I've read is no different from any mining town in Queensland or Western Australia. For them, then Labor PM Julia Gillard was the actual devil for even suggesting a resources tax. Mining jobs were extremely lucrative during the mining boom and no one wanted the gravy train to end.

Its important people remember that Clinton was getting hit really, really hard for this exact quote: "we're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business." Certainly misrepresented in its proper context but its one that both Bernie and Trump took advantage of as an example she was against working class Americans who work in primary and secondary industries.

So while Bernie won the state by 15%, the state also saw 12.7% of people voting for alternative candidates. Not just that, around 33% of people who voted for Bernie would have voted for Trump if Bernie was the Democratic Party's Presidential nominee. There was a huge backlash against Clinton for not only her image during the campaign but also her role in the Obama Administration where they saw her as an extension of - this is shown in both the Bernie and small candidate vote.

West Virginia just likes Manchin for whatever reason. I dunno what he actually does for his state, like a lot of bad state representatives, but I doubt what candidate he votes for really rings in their mind. He could help vote in a war criminal and I suspect the general population would still be more concerned if their existing coal mining jobs were going to be maintained.


So 30%+ of Hillary's primary voters would have voted Trump if Bernie was the nominee?

But presuming the argument is that WV does like Joe Manchin, then fine, let them vote for him as a Republican or Independent. I don't see the benefit of him being welcomed in the Democratic party as he proudly proclaims to support a war criminal for head of CIA?


30% were voting for Trump regardless who the presidential candidate was. Over 30% of people voting for Sanders would back Trump even if Sanders was the Democratic nominee.

Which is insane, why would you even vote in a Democratic Party presidential primary if you were just going to straight vote Trump but I guess neither candidate was sufficiently pro-coal and wanted that to be known.
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