EPTYoung people will probably vote macron with a big margin and the liberal middle class in the bigger citys as well,but will that be enough.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 811
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
|
pmh
1416 Posts
Young people will probably vote macron with a big margin and the liberal middle class in the bigger citys as well,but will that be enough. | ||
|
Nebuchad
Switzerland12450 Posts
On April 25 2017 06:21 pmh wrote: I can see her win tbh,she has a huge support amongst farmers and I don't see macron appealing to that group at all. if she looses then I doubt it will be with 20% as the polls seem to predict,maybe 5% tops. 40% seems about right. Trump had the benefit of being the face of a party that Americans are used to seeing elected. A decent percentage of french people still view voting for FN as something really gross and unconscionable. Of course there's always a chance but it seems pretty farfetched to me. After Macron does nothing for five years I can't say the same though, she seems like she'll be in a good spot. | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22298 Posts
On April 25 2017 06:08 pmh wrote: Smart move from le pen I think,it should increase her chances. Fn votes will still see her as representing the ideas of the fn. Non fn voters might see her as an option now as she does not officially represent the fn anymore. any non FN voter who sees her as an option now but not before is a moron Sorry but its that simply, you cant just say 'I am no longer part the FN' and expect to not hold to their beliefs and idea's. You were a member of that party 5 minutes ago for a reason. I understand the play she is trying to make. Its a lot harder to win an election when your affiliated with the FN but the time for this move was 5 minutes before you joined the party in the first place. | ||
|
TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 25 2017 06:21 pmh wrote: I can see her win tbh, she has a huge support amongst farmers and I don't see macron appealing to that group at all. And? Farmers are like 2% of the electorate. | ||
|
OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
| ||
|
TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 25 2017 06:48 OtherWorld wrote: I think a combination of many people abstaining and the far-right being able to run its propaganda machine full-steam against only one candidate (and pretty much the perfect candidate for a far-right propaganda machine, at that) might make it close-ish. Like 55/45 at best (or worst). But winning ? That would be a flat-out upset. Unlike Trump, who made enemies through his speeches and actions but who had a well-known name associated to "good" things (eg money, hotels, rich lifestyle, etc), Le Pen has a well-known name associated to some things that just make some people completely refuse to vote for her. Yeah it cannot really go closer than 55:45 because then people like me would consider making a gesture. | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
| ||
Poopi
France12911 Posts
| ||
|
stilt
France2755 Posts
On April 25 2017 04:39 TheDwf wrote: Laughable storytelling, she really thinks we're imbeciles? Then again the French people just got tricked into reelecting Hollande, so why not... I have been raised in the most deeply respect toward Krasucki, what a man, but still, her speech reminds me George Marchais without the patriotic reference. It was probably written by Philippot (at least it is his influence), no wonder Calais which was a communist bastion where the fn was at best at 15% (more like 10) 10 years ago is at 37%.nowadays. That makes her quite tempting to vote for but it is true that there are some dangerous dudes around the fn.I know at least one of them, a true terror of my school playgrounds haha. | ||
|
Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
| ||
|
TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 25 2017 07:05 Nyxisto wrote: Another question, let's assume that by some miracle Le Pen wins, is she going to take France out of the Euro or how would the rest of the electorate react to whatever she is proposing? She wants to do it the Cameron's way, negotiation then referendum. She wants to wait the result of German and Italian elections, so 2018. She would not have time though, markets would instantly start massacring France's debt. She has probably no actual plan, if she has any brain she knows it's too early to win | ||
|
LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 25 2017 06:56 Poopi wrote: A lot of models predict Macron winning with a probability of 100.0%, as for the results I guess it'll depends on the next two weeks. I'd put it at about 90-95% myself. But Golden Boy Sachs ain't losing. | ||
|
Shield
Bulgaria4824 Posts
On April 25 2017 07:07 TheDwf wrote: She wants to do it the Cameron's way, negotiation then referendum. She wants to wait the result of German and Italian elections, so 2018. She would not have time though, markets would instantly start massacring France's debt. She has probably no actual plan, if she has any brain she knows it's too early to win Does Le Idiot actually have a chance to win referendum? :D UK is a different story, so I'd not compare them to France. | ||
|
arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
We have the same story with France now and I feel like if the same story happens we are going towards a very bad situation in the world in general. | ||
|
TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 25 2017 07:18 Shield wrote: Does Le Idiot actually have a chance to win referendum? :D UK is a different story, so I'd not compare them to France. Can't tell in advance On April 25 2017 07:47 arbiter_md wrote: What worries me is that both Trump and Brexit had the same confidence that it's impossible to win, and eventually ended up that way also because a lot of people being sure about the result just didn't go to vote. Also, in both events it was kind of tabu to say out loud that your option is that way. It made up the polls way out of the actual result. We have the same story with France now and I feel like if the same story happens we are going towards a very bad situation in the world in general. Brexit and Trump were +/- 2 points, a close situation completely within the margin of error, here we have (for now) +20-25 for one side... | ||
|
bardtown
England2313 Posts
| ||
|
LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 25 2017 06:48 OtherWorld wrote: I think a combination of many people abstaining and the far-right being able to run its propaganda machine full-steam against only one candidate (and pretty much the perfect candidate for a far-right propaganda machine, at that) might make it close-ish. Like 55/45 at best (or worst). But winning ? That would be a flat-out upset. Unlike Trump, who made enemies through his speeches and actions but who had a well-known name associated to "good" things (eg money, hotels, rich lifestyle, etc), Le Pen has a well-known name associated to some things that just make some people completely refuse to vote for her. Trump before the election was a famous reality TV asshole known for his love of luxury and for firing people. His catchphrase was, "you're fired!" Not really a great reputation. But he was well-known, yes. | ||
|
LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 25 2017 07:57 bardtown wrote: If MLP voters were smart they would lie when polled to cause complacency. I wonder if any party has tried to make this happen. Would leak to the media almost immediately, I suppose. I've seen this tactic be employed in the past - by fringe groups voting for Trump for example. Tough to make it widespread enough to matter though. | ||
|
TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 25 2017 07:57 bardtown wrote: If MLP voters were smart they would lie when polled to cause complacency. I wonder if any party has tried to make this happen. Would leak to the media almost immediately, I suppose. ... + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://img4.hostingpics.net/pics/205992Prdictionsondagire.png) | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28789 Posts
![[image loading]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election%2C_2017_Macron%E2%80%93Le_Pen.png) That's how their matchup has looked for the past 3 months. Election in 12 days. She did not overperform polls in round 1, no reason to expect a significant overperformance in round 2. I was certain Hillary was gonna win, but I am way, way more certain Macron is winning. Not gonna say 100%, but 99.5% seems totally reasonable. With Trump, there were periods of time where he was ahead or even in polls, there were outlier polls like rasmussen consistently giving him a better chance, there were lots of fluctuations, and Trump's victory ultimately hinged on winning the right states with the right margins. There hasn't been a poll giving her better than 42 vs 58 (whereas macron had a 71-29 one), this is about winning the popular vote, not the right districts, there are few significant fluctuations. There's no looming email scandal or whatever, either.. Pretty certain this is gonna be 60-40-ish. | ||
| ||
