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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 812

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9270 Posts
April 24 2017 23:07 GMT
#16221
I don't know how Macron can lose this. It was hard to predict who will win in Austria but this is more like the Dutch elections where nothing suggested the far right candidate has a chance to convince the undecideds.
You're now breathing manually
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 24 2017 23:09 GMT
#16222
Yeah I can't see Le Pen winning. The votes just aren't there for her and there's no chance they will be.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Shield
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Bulgaria4824 Posts
April 24 2017 23:24 GMT
#16223
That's normal. Unlike the UK, the rest of EU countries feel relatively pro-EU. Still, too many voters for Le Idiot.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-24 23:35:36
April 24 2017 23:31 GMT
#16224
Uh, the French have the most negative opinion of the EU in Europe. Significantly higher percent with a negative opinion of the EU than in the UK. They're less inclined to leave because it's a more significant risk to them and the continent as a whole, but they don't like it by any stretch of the imagination.

Edit: Actually they're 2nd to Greece.
http://www.politico.eu/article/poll-the-eu-is-bad-news-but-britain-shouldnt-leave-it/

Maybe the EU will swing their way now, but that will cause more discontent in NL, Denmark, Germany, etc.
Incognoto
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
France10239 Posts
April 24 2017 23:36 GMT
#16225
Macron should take this to be frank. Even if little cancer-kids abstain most people are doted with common sense and will be able to see where the interests of France lie. It's not about sending a message, it's about steering the ship towards the outcome that most makes sense. Most people see that.

Saying "I'm going to abstain because my vote doesn't matter" is like saying "I'm not going to take a flu shot because everyone else already is". Aka, fucking stupid.

Another reason I think France will not elect Le Pen is that she looks like Trump too much. The French naturally dislike les Américains (well maybe not dislike but they sure think they're better), so they'll think that they're better than the USA by not voting for the populist shit-head that is Le Pen.
maru lover forever
Othryoneus
Profile Joined April 2017
9 Posts
April 24 2017 23:55 GMT
#16226
The left should stay home so Le Pen gets elected. There is no other way to punish the center and the center right. If even France goes full neoliberal, Europe is completely fucked. Now with England gone, we can take on the Germans and bring sense to Eurozone monetary policy.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-25 00:03:28
April 25 2017 00:02 GMT
#16227
France with Le Pen will be politically isolated and will not wrestle anything meaningful out of any other European country. That is a 'Bernie-or-Bust' plan. You won't bring the system down with Le Pen, you'll just get a really shitty system
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28738 Posts
April 25 2017 00:12 GMT
#16228
On April 25 2017 08:55 Othryoneus wrote:
The left should stay home so Le Pen gets elected. There is no other way to punish the center and the center right. If even France goes full neoliberal, Europe is completely fucked. Now with England gone, we can take on the Germans and bring sense to Eurozone monetary policy.


As a leftist, why on earth would I choose to punish the center to reward the far-right?
Moderator
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France12907 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-25 00:20:09
April 25 2017 00:19 GMT
#16229
Politics is the only topic where a moderator will take a 1 post guy with a weird post at least reasonably seriously haha, beautiful .
But maybe if you go to the left when you are at the extreme left, it goes directly to the far right, in which case his theory would make sense.
WriterMaru
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28738 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-25 00:33:02
April 25 2017 00:31 GMT
#16230
Yeah I mean in reality there are some overlaps between far right and far left, in that they can both be very critical towards the status quo. There can also be incidental overlap in preferred policy (but usually stemming from very different reasoning). Free trade can be one of these. Opposition to the EU can be another. (simplified, leftists are against it from a worker rights perspective, but can also acknowledge the need for supranational institutions to combat global issues like climate change and immigration. The far-right's opposition is far more rooted in national sovereignty arguments (whereas 'the socialist revolution has to be international', 'think globally act locally' are leftist adages) and opposition to those same institutions. There are a lot of these examples, but they all highlight that the far left and the far right have completely different ideal societies.
Moderator
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
April 25 2017 01:19 GMT
#16231
Can someone from France explain how Le Pen is considered so threatening to the status quo? Her economic illiteracy is the same as all the other candidates (except the one that finished 3rd), and my understanding is that if she tries to unilaterally do something on EU you can no-confidence vote and get a new President?

Unless immigration is really the #1 issue of the time in France, but idk how that's possible given that they don't get to vote.
Freeeeeeedom
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2394 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-25 01:49:06
April 25 2017 01:42 GMT
#16232
On April 25 2017 10:19 cLutZ wrote:
Can someone from France explain how Le Pen is considered so threatening to the status quo? Her economic illiteracy is the same as all the other candidates (except the one that finished 3rd), and my understanding is that if she tries to unilaterally do something on EU you can no-confidence vote and get a new President?

Unless immigration is really the #1 issue of the time in France, but idk how that's possible given that they don't get to vote.

Why do you consider Macron economically illiterate?

In the realm of ideas, Le Pen comes from the same place fascism came from. We tried it out a whole ago on this side of the pond and it left us a really bad taste in our mouths.

Edit: to add a little bit of seriousness to the snark, she doesn't have to unilaterally try to leave the EU - nor could she - but I'm guessing she could call s referendum which would run the risk of going the same way the UK did. To everyone in Europe, that is real economic and social upheaval if it happens.
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
April 25 2017 02:53 GMT
#16233
On April 25 2017 10:42 warding wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 25 2017 10:19 cLutZ wrote:
Can someone from France explain how Le Pen is considered so threatening to the status quo? Her economic illiteracy is the same as all the other candidates (except the one that finished 3rd), and my understanding is that if she tries to unilaterally do something on EU you can no-confidence vote and get a new President?

Unless immigration is really the #1 issue of the time in France, but idk how that's possible given that they don't get to vote.

Why do you consider Macron economically illiterate?

In the realm of ideas, Le Pen comes from the same place fascism came from. We tried it out a whole ago on this side of the pond and it left us a really bad taste in our mouths.

Edit: to add a little bit of seriousness to the snark, she doesn't have to unilaterally try to leave the EU - nor could she - but I'm guessing she could call s referendum which would run the risk of going the same way the UK did. To everyone in Europe, that is real economic and social upheaval if it happens.


Its my understanding he is marketed as an "economic centrist/realist" but doesn't have anything about the early retirement age, 35 hr work week, or pension cuts in his platform. Also I haven't seen a plan for reducing the youth unemployment rate. He's fine elsewhere, and certainly better than Le Pen, but I dont see why she's cataclysmic. The immigration thing, IMO seems like a predictable response to a country with a large welfare state. Open borders or a welfare state, pick one, is the old Milton Friedman saying.
Freeeeeeedom
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18205 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-25 03:24:22
April 25 2017 03:20 GMT
#16234
On April 25 2017 11:53 cLutZ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 25 2017 10:42 warding wrote:
On April 25 2017 10:19 cLutZ wrote:
Can someone from France explain how Le Pen is considered so threatening to the status quo? Her economic illiteracy is the same as all the other candidates (except the one that finished 3rd), and my understanding is that if she tries to unilaterally do something on EU you can no-confidence vote and get a new President?

Unless immigration is really the #1 issue of the time in France, but idk how that's possible given that they don't get to vote.

Why do you consider Macron economically illiterate?

In the realm of ideas, Le Pen comes from the same place fascism came from. We tried it out a whole ago on this side of the pond and it left us a really bad taste in our mouths.

Edit: to add a little bit of seriousness to the snark, she doesn't have to unilaterally try to leave the EU - nor could she - but I'm guessing she could call s referendum which would run the risk of going the same way the UK did. To everyone in Europe, that is real economic and social upheaval if it happens.


Its my understanding he is marketed as an "economic centrist/realist" but doesn't have anything about the early retirement age, 35 hr work week, or pension cuts in his platform. Also I haven't seen a plan for reducing the youth unemployment rate. He's fine elsewhere, and certainly better than Le Pen, but I dont see why she's cataclysmic. The immigration thing, IMO seems like a predictable response to a country with a large welfare state. Open borders or a welfare state, pick one, is the old Milton Friedman saying.

She's cataclysmic because she's a slightly more disguised neonazi than her father was, but the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

As for her leaving FN: I don't think she's unpalatable because of FN, in fact the reverse may well be true (although FN has plenty of other neonazi scum who hide it even less well than Marine Le Pen does, she was just in the spotlight a lot more than them). So leaving FN shouldn't do her any good at all.
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
April 25 2017 03:37 GMT
#16235
What are her other Nazi-ish tendencies (no good reporting of this in the US) other than anti-immigration?
Freeeeeeedom
Spaylz
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Japan1743 Posts
April 25 2017 03:39 GMT
#16236
On April 25 2017 10:19 cLutZ wrote:
Can someone from France explain how Le Pen is considered so threatening to the status quo? Her economic illiteracy is the same as all the other candidates (except the one that finished 3rd), and my understanding is that if she tries to unilaterally do something on EU you can no-confidence vote and get a new President?

Unless immigration is really the #1 issue of the time in France, but idk how that's possible given that they don't get to vote.


There's more way to mess with a country than to vote. Immigration is definitely an issue in France in my opinion; but the solution isn't to do a complete 180 and restrict immigration to 10,000 migrants per year, on top of other silly regulations such as abolishing dual citizenship for non-European citizens (and Russia, go figure), etc.

As far as her program goes, it's really all about putting French citizens first, to the point of removing any and all school program allowing for children to learn the native tongue of their parents if they are born to immigrants; that kind of stuff. Beyond her program, which again is all about nationalistic protectionism, there's her very obvious ties to Russia, her blatant corruption and the fact that she doesn't seem too keen on things such as freedom of press and the right to protest against police brutality.

If you can understand French I'd recommend reading her 144 measures for France. It'd give you a good idea.
I like words.
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
April 25 2017 03:59 GMT
#16237
I dont read French above a 3rd grade level, which is why I'm asking all the questions. I'm sure someone will make a joke about how that is sufficient to understand the average politician, this is me shitting on that joke :p
Freeeeeeedom
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18205 Posts
April 25 2017 04:23 GMT
#16238
On April 25 2017 12:37 cLutZ wrote:
What are her other Nazi-ish tendencies (no good reporting of this in the US) other than anti-immigration?

https://www.google.es/amp/www.vox.com/platform/amp/world/2017/4/21/15358708/marine-le-pen-french-elections-far-right-front-national
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
April 25 2017 04:57 GMT
#16239
On April 25 2017 13:23 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 25 2017 12:37 cLutZ wrote:
What are her other Nazi-ish tendencies (no good reporting of this in the US) other than anti-immigration?

https://www.google.es/amp/www.vox.com/platform/amp/world/2017/4/21/15358708/marine-le-pen-french-elections-far-right-front-national

I mean, I know your flair says Spain, but that is like citing infowars... and it doesnt even really answer the question.
Freeeeeeedom
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 25 2017 07:02 GMT
#16240
On April 25 2017 06:56 Poopi wrote:
A lot of models predict Macron winning with a probability of 100.0%, as for the results I guess it'll depends on the next two weeks.

Model prediction and 100.0% should never be mentioned in the same sentence. "A lot of models" are pure bullshit if they're citing that number. And I'd consider mid to high 90s to be believable.

On April 25 2017 11:53 cLutZ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 25 2017 10:42 warding wrote:
On April 25 2017 10:19 cLutZ wrote:
Can someone from France explain how Le Pen is considered so threatening to the status quo? Her economic illiteracy is the same as all the other candidates (except the one that finished 3rd), and my understanding is that if she tries to unilaterally do something on EU you can no-confidence vote and get a new President?

Unless immigration is really the #1 issue of the time in France, but idk how that's possible given that they don't get to vote.

Why do you consider Macron economically illiterate?

In the realm of ideas, Le Pen comes from the same place fascism came from. We tried it out a whole ago on this side of the pond and it left us a really bad taste in our mouths.

Edit: to add a little bit of seriousness to the snark, she doesn't have to unilaterally try to leave the EU - nor could she - but I'm guessing she could call s referendum which would run the risk of going the same way the UK did. To everyone in Europe, that is real economic and social upheaval if it happens.


Its my understanding he is marketed as an "economic centrist/realist" but doesn't have anything about the early retirement age, 35 hr work week, or pension cuts in his platform. Also I haven't seen a plan for reducing the youth unemployment rate. He's fine elsewhere, and certainly better than Le Pen, but I dont see why she's cataclysmic. The immigration thing, IMO seems like a predictable response to a country with a large welfare state. Open borders or a welfare state, pick one, is the old Milton Friedman saying.

It's just the left/right divide, Euro-version. The left will hype doom and gloom, the right will get welfare points from people tired of dialogue norms, and the marketing on market-friendliness is not much more than posturing. I read the thread and talked to leftist French expats and haven't heard anything out of the ordinary. She's bad in conventional ways. Bad debater, majority bad policy suggestions.

Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
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