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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 23 2017 20:59 bardtown wrote: Okay based on that I'm betting on Le Pen beating Macron in the first round. High turnout should favor candidates who have the highest potental for progression, i.e. Macron and Mélenchon (the indecisiveness came from left-wing and particularly former PS voters). Le Pen has the most stable and determined base, they always vote, even in intermediary elections. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On April 23 2017 21:32 TheDwf wrote: High turnout should favor candidates who have the highest potental for progression, i.e. Macron and Mélenchon (the indecisiveness came from left-wing and particularly former PS voters). Le Pen has the most stable and determined base, they always vote, even in intermediary elections. The turnout increase isn't that massive its looking like 80% thats a small increase on the last presidential election and unlikely to make any difference for Melenchon. Macron vs Fillon is the contest and I think the huge number of undecided voters will swing more behind Fillon than Macron for various reasons. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 23 2017 21:37 Zaros wrote: The turnout increase isn't that massive its looking like 80% thats a small increase on the last presidential election and unlikely to make any difference for Melenchon. Macron vs Fillon is the contest and I think the huge number of undecided voters will swing more behind FIllon than Macron for various reasons. Talking about the difference between polls and the election, not 2012 and 2017. That's ~3 millions of extra votes. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
Of course I could be completely wrong. It's just an intuition. | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On April 23 2017 21:25 bardtown wrote: Well, let's see what happens. I don't think the polling companies reach Le Pen voters, so I expect her support to be understated. And Zaros, here's some support for your theory: French polling companies use quotas to get a supposedly representative sample of the population. There's no reason for them not to reach Le Pen voters. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28865 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18368 Posts
On April 23 2017 21:58 bardtown wrote: If their quotas were flawless we could just skip the election altogether. That's not how things work. Just because the polling is accurate doesn't mean you can remove the election. But I'm sure you know that and are just being facetious. | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On April 23 2017 21:58 bardtown wrote: If their quotas were flawless we could just skip the election altogether. I don't think that's the point. The point is that polls were pretty accurate about the FN's score at the 2014 European elections, and that they actually overestimated the FN's score at the 2015 élections départementales ("county-level elections", I guess ?). Thus if there's a flaw in their quotas concerning the FN, it's most likely not in favor of not reaching the FN's voters. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On April 23 2017 22:10 OtherWorld wrote: I don't think that's the point. The point is that polls were pretty accurate about the FN's score at the 2014 European elections, and that they actually overestimated the FN's score at the 2015 élections départementales ("county-level elections", I guess ?). Thus if there's a flaw in their quotas concerning the FN, it's most likely not in favor of not reaching the FN's voters. Does the FN vote share even matter, I think Le Pen has enough of a lead to get to the final 2 short of a polling disaster, the contest is who gets the 2nd place next to Le Pen in the final round. Fillon, Macron or Melechon? | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On April 23 2017 22:13 Zaros wrote: Does the FN vote share even matter, I think Le Pen has enough of a lead to get to the final 2 short of a polling disaster, the contest is who gets the 2nd place next to Le Pen in the final round. Fillon, Macron or Melechon? On the last polls we had on hand, Le Pen didn't have any lead on anyone ; in fact she was most of the times second behind Macron, and within reach of Fillon and Mélenchon if you account for the confidence interval. http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/HNS/HNSAdmin/start.appli?appid=60930&logonUser=USERWEB&logonPswcd=ZnJhbmNvaXNF | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 23 2017 22:13 Zaros wrote: Does the FN vote share even matter, I think Le Pen has enough of a lead to get to the final 2 short of a polling disaster, the contest is who gets the 2nd place next to Le Pen in the final round. Fillon, Macron or Melechon? Le Pen had no lead in the latest polls, she's not even guaranteed to be in the second round. Wait and see | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On April 23 2017 17:53 OtherWorld wrote: My guess would be : Macron 24,7% Mélenchon 22,8% Le Pen 22,3% Fillon 20,1% 20:00 to 20:30 does 20:00 to 20:30 mean we get proper results or is that the time the voting stops and they start counting? | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 23 2017 22:22 Toadesstern wrote: does 20:00 to 20:30 mean we get proper results or is that the time the voting stops and they start counting? First estimations. Pollsters could have problems this time if results are close, they may not know right away. In 2012 some estimations were wrong by up to 1.5%, so obviously in a close 4-way match this could be problematic. Voting stops at 19:00, except in a few big cities where it stops at 20:00. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
- There's no exit poll this year, at least from French companies. - If some foreign polling companies have exit polls, they will probably not be reliable. - Voting stops at 19:00 CEST so there should not be first estimations available in foreign medias before 19:30 (maybe in Belgium?). 20:00 - 20:30 for French estimations. May the Force be with us | ||
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Sent.
Poland9319 Posts
- There's no exit poll this year, at least from French companies. Why? | ||
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Shield
Bulgaria4824 Posts
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
On April 23 2017 22:47 Shield wrote: Hopefully Le Pen loses. Tired of Russian puppets. Which Russian puppets are you talking about? | ||
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Shield
Bulgaria4824 Posts
On April 23 2017 23:04 bardtown wrote: Which Russian puppets are you talking about? Farage, Le Pen and Trump (also his team). It's not coincidence they dislike the EU and like Russia. Well, Trump is talking different things about the EU now, but it wasn't too long ago he was talking bad about the EU. Who knows what's truth. | ||
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