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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On April 23 2017 05:31 Makro wrote: what a time we're living when the two probably top score can* come from the far-right and the far-left jesus the death of the PS is pretty crazy. They poll lower than Die Linke. Shame, I kind of liked Hamon's program | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6214 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
He seemed to be more on the "redistributionist" side of politics rather than the class warfare and ownership side that Melenchon is on and I think that makes more sense. The system isn't all that bad, the profits are just badly distributed. I'm more of a fan of the Scandinavian 'flexicurity' system than the heavy national regulations. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
I'm giving Macron an almost 100% chance of winning at this point, but tomorrow should give us some good indicators as to whether shock results are likely or the polls are looking accurate. Macron and Le Pen to the second round seems like a safe bet for now. | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
Melenchon may have the momentum, but I can't see the core of the social-democratic party giving up on Hamon completely, so I don't think it is going to be enough. I don't know the French well enough, but my tips are: Le Pen: 27% Fillion: 23% Macron: 22% Melenchon: 16% Hamon: 9% | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Spaylz
Japan1743 Posts
Personally, I will be voting for Hamon. | ||
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
However, there has been a ton of polling and that has been very consistent. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017 Since April 14 the total sum of sample sizes is over 50 000. The margins for major candidates are Melenchon - 18-19.5 Macron - 23-25 Fillon - 18.5-21 Le Pen - 22-23 These are really small variations. I'm not sure what to think. | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
Macron 24,7% Mélenchon 22,8% Le Pen 22,3% Fillon 20,1% On April 23 2017 17:34 Big J wrote: When will there be results? 20:00 to 20:30 | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18000 Posts
On April 23 2017 17:53 OtherWorld wrote: My guess would be : Macron 24,7% Mélenchon 22,8% Le Pen 22,3% Fillon 20,1% 20:00 to 20:30 The extra decimal in there makes your guess so much more significant! My money would be on Macron and Le Pen making it through to the runoffs, but the ideological divide is huge. Same story as in the Dutch elections: no clear winner. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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Poopi
France12886 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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Makro
France16890 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France7890 Posts
On April 23 2017 20:59 bardtown wrote: Okay based on that I'm betting on Le Pen beating Macron in the first round. ??? Le Pen suffers from high turnout as her voters are the least likely not to vote and mostly very motivated. That's a constant with the Front National and why they do so well in low turnout elections such as european elections. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On April 23 2017 21:14 Biff The Understudy wrote: ??? Le Pen suffers from high turnout as her voters are the least likely not to vote and mostly very motivated. That's a constant with the Front National and why they do so well in low turnout elections such as european elections. I think she has enough of a lead to still get to the final 2, but I still think its Fillon that will be facing her not Macron. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
On April 23 2017 21:14 Biff The Understudy wrote: ??? Le Pen suffers from high turnout as her voters are the least likely not to vote and mostly very motivated. That's a constant with the Front National and why they do so well in low turnout elections such as european elections. Well, let's see what happens. I don't think the polling companies reach Le Pen voters, so I expect her support to be understated. And Zaros, here's some support for your theory: | ||
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