EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 773
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
Given that France has no states I think the largest inaccuracy is gone and polls might be pretty reasonable. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On April 11 2017 03:28 TheDwf wrote: Le Pen's niece: “I don't care whether my daughter pays her burqa in francs or euros.” Pretty much says it all, uh? Now that right there is a great quote. And if what I'm reading is true, that FN leads amongst French citizens 18-34, they have have a great future as well. My guess is superb first round showing, then everybody comes together to defeat in the second round. | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
It's funny because they blamed internet polls for the polling in the 2015 general election and then phone polls for the Brexit polls. In hindsight you can make assessments as to what was wrong with the polls, but again I would say that complacency right now would be a serious mistake. Complacency was definitely a factor for Brexit, because the Scots and Londoners, who made up the bulk of the Remain vote, thought it was in the bag and didn't show up to the ballot box. Meanwhile, the Leave voters were inflamed by the prospect of real change and managed to get people voting who had never done so before. | ||
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lastpuritan
United States540 Posts
On April 08 2017 07:02 LegalLord wrote: Of all the Muslims I've met, I can say this much: the majority are not terrible people, and like with almost all other identity classifications of interest, most people want simply to live their lives in peace and be able to pay the bills. However, it's hard not to see the tendencies in them that enable extremism to thrive, in their Western home or in their MidEast home. And it's not just the same old "every group has its bad apples" problem either. Christians generally don't support the Ku Klux Klan or any other similar religiously-guided extremist group of their own religion. Whereas if you really dig into it, Muslims will generally admit an attitude that is worryingly sympathetic towards terrorism in the name of Islam. Furthermore, refugees are the type of people who are ripe for being radicalized. They left their home hardly out of any ideological reason; most of them have little problem with the run-of-the-mill Islam-derivative law ("Sharia law"). They have no particular desire to be Westerners; they just want to flee war and if Germany is offering money as well, why not? But whereas the first generation, barring terrorists who just take advantage of the opportunity to cross the border, will generally merely be troublesome in a Western society (e.g. crime), second-generation refugees have little of the same memory of the troubles of war yet all of the backwards teachings that might compel them towards radicalization. It should not be a surprise that this happens - the only reason it is is because we live in a world where it's important to blatantly deny the existence of race/religion-related problems because it's "racist" to acknowledge them. And, incidentally, attitudes towards this are one example of the major differences between the West Europeans and the more Eastern ones. It's sad when people use the word generally because their assumption usually shapes around their point of view and their research field for those generalizations are limited within their google abilities or they're extremely selective "where" to find reliable information. Many republicans usually have incredibly terrorist ideas about abortion. Trump even said there should be a some kind of punishment which I actually think, is terrorism on human body. If you want to generalize people, you should go and live among them instead of looking at the drained information from third or fourth party institutions which often carry their own agenda. Maybe I can believe you if you live in the capitals of Muslim countries for 3 years and talk to whoever comes in front of you. I am a Turk and I never knew someone who's islamist in my entire life in Istanbul. Maybe people fail to realize but Turkey is the record-high victim country to ISIS attacks in Europe, that will probably diminish any extremist incline towards Islamic terror organizations, which takes 75 millions of people out of the basket of your generalizations. I was raised muslim untill I decide it's bullshit to believe in angels, and none of the doctrines people tried to inject me contained any beheadings, even though my grandfather was a mufti. There it starts the same old discussion, what part of the Quran we're reading. In some parts of the Quran it clearly says muslims should be living peacefully with non-believers and should only wage defensive warfare, in some verses, you can think it's ordering the opposite. "For you is your religion, and for me is my religion." - the verse what my mother keeps telling me when I try to convert her into agnosticism.  Turkey is considered 98% muslim, if you do a public survey people would probably say they would be okay under sharia law (like 30% or Turkey let's say, if you don't ask them directly) but wherever you go, the mosques are goddamn empty, and you don't see any Islamic law taking action on state or public level, except the honor killings in East. They key factor is establishing secularism and secular education system. Even so, the only real thing I have seen for decades is that the West are constantly feeding the Wahhabi and the Salafis with money and guns, since pre WW1. On April 08 2017 06:07 Shield wrote: Well, if the EU politicians stop accepting refugees and muslims, we'll live in a safer place. Unfortunately, they don't understand that islam and European values don't fit together. E.g. women's rights, religious fanatics, etc. If islam is peaceful, why are there murders all the time in the Middle East? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate I'm about to claim my fellow Americans are unfit to Europe because they're murderous christian people! I love Bulgarians, they are always the white-knight of the Europe. If you want those people to live in their world, maybe don't destroy their world? Tell me, what were the chances for Bashar Al Assad sending millions to your country if the West, including US and Turkey, had not started a civil war in his country. I mean, I'm not backing Assad here, but if he was the evil, we could overthrow him directly with OUR armies, not by our proxies. If he killed peaceful protesters, why would you go arm Al Nusra and Kurds? Kill Assad, or let him kill his people, protect your borders. It sounds horrible but was a better option than this. Same thing is starting to happen for Turkey as well, people in the West think the Kurds are butchered and being eaten by Turks and Erdogan making it possible, if you really care the Kurds, come fight for them, stop arming the PKK indirectly. You are kinda lucky that Turkish army is strong, if it wasn't you could be seeing millions of Turkish refugees on your borders, escaping Turko-Kurdish civil war. On April 08 2017 07:18 Plansix wrote Well Europe cheated and went through the enlightenment and reformation. You all created the nationalism, the concept of secularism and then the Ottoman Empire sort of ended before all that stuff could come over. Sadly, the Middle East never really got deep into the whole nation of people. The Ottoman empire ended 120-130 years after 1789. Ataturk was a secular nationalist to build modern Turkey. Arabic nationalism was designed by BG, that's why they never had true nationalism. On April 08 2017 07:42 a_flayer wrote: I was playing Dota in a public game a few days after the whole Dutch-Turkey incident. There were two Turks on my team and we were losing. One of them was being an obnoxious little bitch all game long, complaining about how we all sucked. Just that typical blame everyone-but-myself attitude. Another team mate looked up his profile, found out he was Turkish, and started insulting him based on that. The obnoxious player then retaliated by echoing Erdogans lines of "we will outbreed you, turn you all into Islam". The other Turkish guy, who up until that point had been perfectly reasonable and even trying to keep the team motivated to get the game back on track despite the fact that we were losing, quickly started doing the same. I happen to join European Servers of SQUAD and people are always yelling Allahu Ackbar after terrorists victory, or Russians do jokes about Putin and nukes. It's a wide known fact that the gamers are racists who likes offensive humor. I do the same joke If I down some people in Rainbow Six Siege before stabbing them, say Allahu Ackbar or die! Or when I see pro PKK Kurds on games I brag about my Kurdish girlfriends just to troll. It's the internet, and Russians&Turks should be banned from playing Dota. On April 08 2017 12:43 RvB wrote: Erdogan isn't a salafist. His support in the west mostly comes from nationalism anyway and not islamism. Nationalism is pretty crazy in Turkey. In the west people see Erdogan as someone who made the country 'great' (whatever that means). Erdogan is pure right-winger opportunist. He won every opportunity, every populist one-line he produced, as Turkey grew stronger thanks to it's youth, free market and quality land, he tricked people that it was his party made it possible while addressing previous coalition economic failures and oppression towards non secular life style turks. I like to use this comparison, Erdogan is politicized Trump of Turkey. Some votes for him because he makes Turkey great again!, some votes because he's muslim, some votes because he's nation-state nationalist. (1 state, 1 nation, 1 flag, 1 country) He now will change Turkish parliamenter system into presidential one like the US have, people claim he's doing it because he wants a 1 man rule. I see western media copy-pastes same thing over and over again. For god's sake, he's ruling the country for like 12 years and no other AKP politicians shared powers with him. He was always the 1 man. The West always false-reads situations and made people believe it with their media. Erdogan is seeking a system where he can portion Turkey into states. Yesterday he openly said in the TV that he dreams it and this new system brings it, by 2023 Turkey will be portioned. But he claims this can be done under 1 state, 1 nation, 1 flag rule, so he'll still be controlling the states. He mentioned Ottoman state names alongside the American ones, Kurdistan state-Texas State, Lazistan etc. (Northern Turkey where Laz people live) - I think his inner dreams are vacuuming a good portion of lands and create Arabistan somewhere around Syria and Iraq, so the Kurds, the Turks, and the Arabs live without seeing each other. And I'm kinda okay with the idea, Kurds can live in Kurdistan State and stop bringing their tribal life to Istanbul, same goes for the Arabs. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10705 Posts
Sounds legit. | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
On April 11 2017 16:26 Velr wrote: So erdogan is jailing thousands of journalists and teachers, banning newspapers and closing tv stations because he is such an awesome democrat that just wants to push a normal constitutional reform? Sounds legit. You have to look at it through Erdogan's eyes. He's a moderate, but half of the Turkish population are terrorists and all of the EU are Nazis. He's the last beacon of hope for democracy! | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7889 Posts
On April 11 2017 09:01 Danglars wrote: Now that right there is a great quote. And if what I'm reading is true, that FN leads amongst French citizens 18-34, they have have a great future as well. My guess is superb first round showing, then everybody comes together to defeat in the second round. Do you know who the FN prople are? It's a party made of nostalgia of the colonies and Vichy and the collaboration. The kind of dudes who hated De Gaulle and revered Petain, who thought Algeria shoukd remain french forever and that a good military dictatorship would clean up the mess of that De Gaulle sissy (several lembers of the OAS in the founding crew). I get it, they are hateful racist scumbags, and you love that. But they are not Trump. They are textbook fascists, who called the Republic "la putain" (the whore) until a decade ago, worship the cult of the strong man and the most extreme authoritarianism. Le Pen said a week ago that the french police arresting on its own initiative thousand of jews in Paris in 1942 to send them to Auschwitz had done nothing wrong. Sometimes I wonder if you try to be provocative, if you don't know what you are talking about or if your opinions really do stink that bad. Abit of the three combined, I unfortunately suspect. | ||
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
There is just no doubt that liberal democracy is essential for economic and social development in human societies. I hope there is a strong reaction to this worrying trend. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
Yup, perfectly shows her islamophobic obsession and how much she's into grotesque moral panics, and how the socio-economic parts of their program are completely second to their core business, i.e. hating others. For any sane person who knows reality this quote literally makes her sound like a lunatic. And if what I'm reading is true, that FN leads amongst French citizens 18-34, they have have a great future as well. My guess is superb first round showing, then everybody comes together to defeat in the second round. Oh no, the young generations are more to the left than their elders. We'll see the future developments but as of now, in polls, the radical left gets as many 18-34 votes as the FN. | ||
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LightSpectra
United States1461 Posts
On April 11 2017 09:01 Danglars wrote: Now that right there is a great quote. And if what I'm reading is true, that FN leads amongst French citizens 18-34, they have have a great future as well. My guess is superb first round showing, then everybody comes together to defeat in the second round. I hope you mean it's a great quote insofar that it demonstrates her complete lack of credibility to run a lemonade stand, let alone a major world power. Of course it's actually in Le Pen's interests to be totally incompetent in economic affairs, there's a strong correlation between unemployment and FN voters: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/03/daily-chart-1 | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On April 11 2017 20:33 TheDwf wrote: Yup, perfectly shows her islamophobic obsession and how much she's into grotesque moral panics, and how the socio-economic parts of their program are completely second to their core business, i.e. hating others. For any sane person who knows reality this quote literally makes her sound like a lunatic. If she actually believes her daughter will wear a burqa, then sure, she's a lunatic. But the casual descent into selective hyperliteraliam aside, it's populist theater and a pretty good specimen at that. And if what I'm reading is true, that FN leads amongst French citizens 18-34, they have have a great future as well. My guess is superb first round showing, then everybody comes together to defeat in the second round. Oh no, the young generations are more to the left than their elders. We'll see the future developments but as of now, in polls, the radical left gets as many 18-34 votes as the FN. Just knowing that as of December of 2016, the far right led the youth support demographic, there's reason for hope. They have less sacred cows to respect when they see a mismatch between reality and professed ideals. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 11 2017 22:18 LightSpectra wrote: I hope you mean it's a great quote insofar that it demonstrates her complete lack of credibility to run a lemonade stand, let alone a major world power. Of course it's actually in Le Pen's interests to be totally incompetent in economic affairs, there's a strong correlation between unemployment and FN voters: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/03/daily-chart-1 From an Ifop study, the difference in voting intentions between jobless people and the general population (reference): Far-left: +1,5 Mélenchon: +4 Hamon: +3,5 Macron: -8 Fillon: -10 Dupont-Aignan: -1 Le Pen: +11 Should also note that unemployed people have higher chances (+8) to abstain. | ||
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Oshuy
Netherlands529 Posts
On April 11 2017 22:33 Danglars wrote: If she actually believes her daughter will wear a burqa, then sure, she's a lunatic. But the casual descent into selective hyperliteraliam aside, it's populist theater and a pretty good specimen at that. Note that the quote is not from Marine who is running for president, but from her niece Marion (member of parliament and member of FN). It's a common communication tactic: the main candidate is protected and tries to keep a policed discourse while some of her close ones are in charge of attacks and polemics. This is why Marine's statement on French authorities cooperation with deportation is strange to me. The fact that she said so herself is unexpected. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On April 11 2017 18:45 Biff The Understudy wrote: Do you know who the FN prople are? It's a party made of nostalgia of the colonies and Vichy and the collaboration. The kind of dudes who hated De Gaulle and revered Petain, who thought Algeria shoukd remain french forever and that a good military dictatorship would clean up the mess of that De Gaulle sissy (several lembers of the OAS in the founding crew). I get it, they are hateful racist scumbags, and you love that. But they are not Trump. They are textbook fascists, who called the Republic "la putain" (the whore) until a decade ago, worship the cult of the strong man and the most extreme authoritarianism. Le Pen said a week ago that the french police arresting on its own initiative thousand of jews in Paris in 1942 to send them to Auschwitz had done nothing wrong. Sometimes I wonder if you try to be provocative, if you don't know what you are talking about or if your opinions really do stink that bad. Abit of the three combined, I unfortunately suspect. Show me polling on French colonies among FN voters today. I can acknowledge the bad history and inclusion of certain far right fringe groups I do not support. I get it, they are hateful racist scumbags, and you love that. I get that you're generally an insufferable troll, so abandon your attempt to explain if your thesis is my love for hateful racist scumbags. Try harder. Sometimes I wonder if you try to be provocative, if you don't know what you are talking about or if your opinions really do stink that bad. Abit of the three combined, I unfortunately suspect. Do we even have one French citizen here that supports FN? I wonder if your opinions are just xenophobia for groups you disagree with. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On April 11 2017 22:53 Oshuy wrote: Note that the quote is not from Marine who is running for president, but from her niece Marion (member of parliament and member of FN). It's a common communication tactic: the main candidate is protected and tries to keep a policed discourse while some of her close ones are in charge of attacks and polemics. This is why Marine's statement on French authorities cooperation with deportation is strange to me. The fact that she said so herself is unexpected. I was trying to track down the actual context for the question from the interview before work today, but I'll have to try again afterwards. Marine Le Pen and FN may just be the first stage of evolution to other political parties that incorporate a rejection of migrant chaos into their political platform. Just as an aside on how Le Pen was spinning it (Google Translate edition, Taken from her party's website): Like Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand, or Henri Guaino, Jean-Pierre Chevènement, or Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, I consider that France and the Republic were in London during the occupation and that the Vichy regime was not France. This is a position that has always been defended by the Head of State, before Jacques Chirac and especially Francois Hollande, wrongly, come back on it. This position follows the order of August 9, 1944, which imposed a legal non-existence on the Vichy regime, a collaborating and illegal regime. A quizzical 'True France' epithet, to be sure, but not some pardon. | ||
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LightSpectra
United States1461 Posts
On April 11 2017 22:33 Danglars wrote: Just knowing that as of December of 2016, the far right led the youth support demographic, there's reason for hope. They have less sacred cows to respect when they see a mismatch between reality and professed ideals. Haha, gotcha. So liberal democracy doesn't result in paradise-on-earth, therefore vote for the most uninformed, ignorant, out-of-touch faction possible. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 11 2017 23:03 Danglars wrote: I was trying to track down the actual context for the question from the interview before work today, but I'll have to try again afterwards. Marine Le Pen and FN may just be the first stage of evolution to other political parties that incorporate a rejection of migrant chaos into their political platform. Just as an aside on how Le Pen was spinning it (Google Translate edition, Taken from her party's website): A quizzical 'True France' epithet, to be sure, but not some pardon. See, this directly invalidates your “they have less sacred cows” talk: Just knowing that as of December of 2016, the far right led the youth support demographic, there's reason for hope. They have less sacred cows to respect when they see a mismatch between reality and professed ideals. They always refuse to acknowledge any wrongdoing that France did or still does. I find it really funny that you talked about “no more sacred cows” because you can hardly have a more religious/mystical mindset than nationalists with their fantasized nation. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On April 11 2017 23:22 TheDwf wrote: See, this directly invalidates your “they have less sacred cows” talk: They always refuse to acknowledge any wrongdoing that France did or still does. I find it really funny that you talked about “no more sacred cows” because you can hardly have a more religious/mystical mindset than nationalists with their fantasized nation. Great. I can accept Marine Le Pen's failings if you detach yourself enough from the partisan lines against her to some more objective criticism. I suppose I should explain more about what I mean by sacred cows. In English-language press, the recounting of what was done in the wake of Charlie Hebdo was blurring reprinted images of the offending cover, and preferred instead the vacuous symbol of the pen/pencil betokening timid support of the ideal and zero support of its exercise. Every attempt to explain a failure of assimilation is met by accusations of racism and xenophobia. The sacred cow is you aren't allowed to say anything ill of Muslims because (strong) there isn't anything wrong with Islam, as practiced by immigrant and French Muslim groups, and (weak) you're encouraging far-right fringe extremists with your rhetoric. It's shown, however imperfectly, on polling on burkini bans. French citizens are opposed, French leaders claim nothing wrong, and surely this opposition is coming out in some nonsensical legislation, but the divide exists. If French society continues at the current pace of cultural evolving, if anything remains of its representative government ideal, a FN 2.0 party will morph from existing or previous with less far right radicals but more attention to the unwelcome effects of capitulating to terrorism and compassion to refugees over loyalty to country. | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
You may be right if you say we do not defend ourselves well enough against radical islamic elements (though statistically those incidents are simply minor, yet they shake the society so there is a good argument for a higher security demand, whether it is materialistically justified or not), but if you demand assimilation and thus you want a closed society, you are on the highway to authoritarianism. There is simply no liberal justification for a closed society, what you demand of the individual migrant is built on racial, or nationalistic ideologies and thus racism and xenophobia. | ||
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