European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 772

(4/04) For the first time in the French presidential election, all the candidates were gathered on the same TV studio. The debate lasted ~4 hours, with all candidates speaking ~18 minutes. The themes were employment, social model, security and the moralization of public life. 6.3 millions of people watched the debate (10 millions for the first one with the 5 first candidates), an all-time high for one of the two continuous news channels which were organizing the debate.

The funny thing, when you gather most of the political spectrum in France, is that economic liberalism is immediately minority. While neoliberalism is completely hegemonic within the French ruling class, 9/11 candidates were critical of economic liberalism in one way or another. This echoes the French society where interventionnism remains dominant (apparently even in Macron's electorate! according to some poll).

The other funny thing on this TV studio is that 9/11 of the candidates had campaigned against the TCE in 2005. Euroscepticism was majority, and only 3/11 of the candidates defended further integration (Macron and Fillon on the current basis, Hamon on an anti-austerity line). Only Nathalie Arthaud at the far-left was fairly euro-neutral, blaming capitalism instead for the problems of the working class and stating that “it didn't matter whether you were badly paid in francs or euros”.

The third funny thing is that Le Pen was fairly marginalized by the presence of the “small” candidates, because they too were occupying her “protester niche”. The two far-left candidates kept bashing her. Macron attacked her on her will to leave the euro. Mélenchon also attacked Le Pen on laïcité [secularism] after some lunar answer from her: when asked about institutions, she ended up talking about… the right to put nativity scenes in town halls (which is forbidden by the law); to which Mélenchon answered, “Give us a break with your religious stories!” Honestly I found her fairly mediocre in both debates.

Poutou, the far-left candidate of the NPA, attacked vehemently Fillon and Le Pen over their scandals. You can read more in the New York Times. Basically he blamed Le Pen for “presenting herself as anti-system, yet using the laws of the system” to protect herself thanks to her MP immunity (she refused to go to her summon in the EU Parliament fake jobs case, going full martyr à la “justice is persecuting me1!1!1!!” And she really said in that debate that she was “politically persecuted” …). Poutou pretty much killed her with this reply: “When we workers are summoned by the police, we don’t have worker’s immunity.” This was the most remarked reply of the debate, and he was pretty much the Internet hero of the day after that. It should be noted that columnists on the TV channel had exhibited disgusting class contempt when talking about him, before and after the debate. He's an ordinary guy who uses sometimes familiar and even “crude” words, and he doesn't dress like a politician, so it could only bother the little bourgeois who chat on the TV studios… Poutou also sent a missile towards Fillon, saying that he preached austerity but was less rigorous when it came to serving himself in the public funds. Boom!

Mélenchon and Poutou's performances were noted in this debate. In some Ifop poll they arrived first and second (34 and 19%) in the “who did best in this debate”. Mélenchon then Macron were first and second in the “who was the most convincing” question (24 and 19%). Mélenchon had a ridiculous rise in popularity polls, something like +20 points in a month in some studies after the two TV debates. It's insane how much his image changed over a few weeks, he managed to out-corner himself out of the “red devil” caricature in which he was trapped to appear “presidential” for a growing number of people.

Another debate had been scheduled with the 11 candidates, but it was cancelled since it was too late in the campaign (basically 24 hours before the end of the campaign, the 21).

On the folkloric side: http://www.fiscalkombat.fr/ - Some supporters of Mélenchon released a few days ago (07/04) this little browser video game with a 90's ambiance. Your character is Mélenchon, and your goal is to take back the money from the oligarchy. For that, you have to shake some fraudsters/oligarchs/politicians to make euros fall from their pockets. At the end, the (fake) money you earn is then poured into the Public Treasury, on top of what all other players earned, to fund Mélenchon's program (273 billions). The game features Cahuzac (our dear fraudster ex-minister), Lagarde, Macron, Sarkozy, Fillon, etc. You play without the mouse, with ↑ (shake) and → / ← (movement). You can also press the spacebar to kill everything on screen from time to time.

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Anyway, the polls are now as follows:

+ Show Spoiler +

If you want to visualize the collapse of the two historical governmental parties in France:

+ Show Spoiler +

Hollande 2012 is mostly split between Macron, Mélenchon and Hamon.
Sarkozy 2012 is mostly split between Macron, Fillon and Le Pen. Dupont-Aignan should also be monitored closely as his 4-5% could potentially prevent Fillon from reaching the second round.

It should be noted that Mélenchon had known a similar rise in polls in 2012 (up to “only” 15-17% though), but in the end he had been blocked by the “useful vote” for Hollande. According to some polls back then, 30% of Hollande voters had hesitated with Mélenchon, i. e. 8 points or 3 millions of voters. This time, with the PS collapsing, there is no force in the left on his way (Macron does not belong to the left), so his chances should be better. Apparently, because of his good polls, after the “Le Pen spread” there is now a “Mélenchon spread” on the market lol.

(09/04) For the first time, some poll had Mélenchon as the third man (with 18%), ahead of Fillon (17%), behind Le Pen and Macron (24%). He was thus tested in the second round against them [polls in France can only publish “plausible scenarios” for the second round]:

+ Show Spoiler +

The same day, Fillon and Mélenchon had big meetings. Fillon gathered 25k people in Paris, Mélenchon 70k in Marseille (figures from the organizers). Fillon said that he didn't ask people to “love him,” but to vote for his program. He said that we were in critical times for France and Europe: “the next blow to EU could be fatal”. He claimed that his goal was to turn France into the first European power in 10 years. His main target was Macron, which he presented as Hollande's heir. Fillon's supporters have a weird theory about a “hidden vote” which would allow him to reach the second round, so they still (want to) believe in the victory.

As for Mélenchon, he was quite lyric in the beginning of the meeting when talking about migrants drowning into the sea: “O good sea, how is it possible that you became that graveyard where 30 000 disappeared.” He then silenced the crowd saying, “Listen, you folks! Be quiet! Listen! It is the silence of death.” He criticized Le Pen's views on migrants, then called for a minute of silence in the name of all migrants who had died trying to cross the Mediterranean. He then proceeded to talk about peace (he had brought an oliver branch), criticized Trump's unilateral reaction and called for a conference in Europe to stabilize borders; he reiterated that he wanted France to leave NATO. He presented himself as “the president of peace” and warned against hawkish views. After that, he switched to ecology, calling for an alliance in order to preserve ecologically the Mediterranean Sea.

Possibly because she's stagnating/slowly decreasing in polls and because no one really seems to be discussing her ideas anymore, Le Pen went back to her fundamentals, claiming that France was “not responsible” for the Vel' d'hiv Roundup. Chirac had officially recognized France's responsibility in 1995, so this immediately triggered a controversy about the revisionist views of the FN and the far-right continuity with her father. Her statement was unanimously condemned. She defended herself essentially saying that “Vichy wasn't France”.

---

As of now, the campaign is largely interpreted as a race between 4 candidates: Macron, Le Pen, Fillon and Mélenchon. Hamon is seen as too distanced since he fell below the 10% threshold and his electorate obviously overlaps with Mélenchon's one. He also said that he would prefer to vote Mélenchon in the second round if he didn't reach it himself, which in a way is some symbolic concession of defeat (generally candidates refuse to answer in advance to those kind of scenarii). So far Fillon, Macron and Le Pen didn't take Mélenchon seriously (the left was not expected to have a chance), but now they will probably start attacking him.

Conclusion: things remain unpredictable since between 30 and 40% of the voters are still undecided.

The campaign officially began today, so now speaking times are equal for all candidates.

And so continues the craziest election in the Vth Republic.

(4/04) For the first time in the French presidential election, all the candidates were gathered on the same TV studio. The debate lasted ~4 hours, with all candidates speaking ~18 minutes. The themes were employment, social model, security and the moralization of public life. 6.3 millions of people watched the debate (10 millions for the first one with the 5 first candidates), an all-time high for one of the two continuous news channels which were organizing the debate.

The funny thing, when you gather most of the political spectrum in France, is that economic liberalism is immediately minority. While neoliberalism is completely hegemonic within the French ruling class, 9/11 candidates were critical of economic liberalism in one way or another. This echoes the French society where interventionnism remains dominant (apparently even in Macron's electorate! according to some poll).

The other funny thing on this TV studio is that 9/11 of the candidates had campaigned against the TCE in 2005. Euroscepticism was majority, and only 3/11 of the candidates defended further integration (Macron and Fillon on the current basis, Hamon on an anti-austerity line). Only Nathalie Arthaud at the far-left was fairly euro-neutral, blaming capitalism instead for the problems of the working class and stating that “it didn't matter whether you were badly paid in francs or euros”.

The third funny thing is that Le Pen was fairly marginalized by the presence of the “small” candidates, because they too were occupying her “protester niche”. The two far-left candidates kept bashing her. Macron attacked her on her will to leave the euro. Mélenchon also attacked Le Pen on laïcité [secularism] after some lunar answer from her: when asked about institutions, she ended up talking about… the right to put nativity scenes in town halls (which is forbidden by the law); to which Mélenchon answered, “Give us a break with your religious stories!” Honestly I found her fairly mediocre in both debates.

Poutou, the far-left candidate of the NPA, attacked vehemently Fillon and Le Pen over their scandals. You can read more in the New York Times. Basically he blamed Le Pen for “presenting herself as anti-system, yet using the laws of the system” to protect herself thanks to her MP immunity (she refused to go to her summon in the EU Parliament fake jobs case, going full martyr à la “justice is persecuting me1!1!1!!” And she really said in that debate that she was “politically persecuted” …). Poutou pretty much killed her with this reply: “When we workers are summoned by the police, we don’t have worker’s immunity.” This was the most remarked reply of the debate, and he was pretty much the Internet hero of the day after that. It should be noted that columnists on the TV channel had exhibited disgusting class contempt when talking about him, before and after the debate. He's an ordinary guy who uses sometimes familiar and even “crude” words, and he doesn't dress like a politician, so it could only bother the little bourgeois who chat on the TV studios… Poutou also sent a missile towards Fillon, saying that he preached austerity but was less rigorous when it came to serving himself in the public funds. Boom!

Mélenchon and Poutou's performances were noted in this debate. In some Ifop poll they arrived first and second (34 and 19%) in the “who did best in this debate”. Mélenchon then Macron were first and second in the “who was the most convincing” question (24 and 19%). Mélenchon had a ridiculous rise in popularity polls, something like +20 points in a month in some studies after the two TV debates. It's insane how much his image changed over a few weeks, he managed to out-corner himself out of the “red devil” caricature in which he was trapped to appear “presidential” for a growing number of people.

Another debate had been scheduled with the 11 candidates, but it was cancelled since it was too late in the campaign (basically 24 hours before the end of the campaign, the 21).

On the folkloric side: http://www.fiscalkombat.fr/ - Some supporters of Mélenchon released a few days ago (07/04) this little browser video game with a 90's ambiance. Your character is Mélenchon, and your goal is to take back the money from the oligarchy. For that, you have to shake some fraudsters/oligarchs/politicians to make euros fall from their pockets. At the end, the (fake) money you earn is then poured into the Public Treasury, on top of what all other players earned, to fund Mélenchon's program (273 billions). The game features Cahuzac (our dear fraudster ex-minister), Lagarde, Macron, Sarkozy, Fillon, etc. You play without the mouse, with ↑ (shake) and → / ← (movement). You can also press the spacebar to kill everything on screen from time to time.

---

Anyway, the polls are now as follows:

+ Show Spoiler +

If you want to visualize the collapse of the two historical governmental parties in France:

+ Show Spoiler +

Hollande 2012 is mostly split between Macron, Mélenchon and Hamon.
Sarkozy 2012 is mostly split between Macron, Fillon and Le Pen. Dupont-Aignan should also be monitored closely as his 4-5% could potentially prevent Fillon from reaching the second round.

It should be noted that Mélenchon had known a similar rise in polls in 2012 (up to “only” 15-17% though), but in the end he had been blocked by the “useful vote” for Hollande. According to some polls back then, 30% of Hollande voters had hesitated with Mélenchon, i. e. 8 points or 3 millions of voters. This time, with the PS collapsing, there is no force in the left on his way (Macron does not belong to the left), so his chances should be better. Apparently, because of his good polls, after the “Le Pen spread” there is now a “Mélenchon spread” on the market lol.

(09/04) For the first time, some poll had Mélenchon as the third man (with 18%), ahead of Fillon (17%), behind Le Pen and Macron (24%). He was thus tested in the second round against them [polls in France can only publish “plausible scenarios” for the second round]:

+ Show Spoiler +

The same day, Fillon and Mélenchon had big meetings. Fillon gathered 25k people in Paris, Mélenchon 70k in Marseille (figures from the organizers). Fillon said that he didn't ask people to “love him,” but to vote for his program. He said that we were in critical times for France and Europe: “the next blow to EU could be fatal”. He claimed that his goal was to turn France into the first European power in 10 years. His main target was Macron, which he presented as Hollande's heir. Fillon's supporters have a weird theory about a “hidden vote” which would allow him to reach the second round, so they still (want to) believe in the victory.

As for Mélenchon, he was quite lyric in the beginning of the meeting when talking about migrants drowning into the sea: “O good sea, how is it possible that you became that graveyard where 30 000 disappeared.” He then silenced the crowd saying, “Listen, you folks! Be quiet! Listen! It is the silence of death.” He criticized Le Pen's views on migrants, then called for a minute of silence in the name of all migrants who had died trying to cross the Mediterranean. He then proceeded to talk about peace (he had brought an oliver branch), criticized Trump's unilateral reaction and called for a conference in Europe to stabilize borders; he reiterated that he wanted France to leave NATO. He presented himself as “the president of peace” and warned against hawkish views. After that, he switched to ecology, calling for an alliance in order to preserve ecologically the Mediterranean Sea.

Possibly because she's stagnating/slowly decreasing in polls and because no one really seems to be discussing her ideas anymore, Le Pen went back to her fundamentals, claiming that France was “not responsible” for the Vel' d'hiv Roundup. Chirac had officially recognized France's responsibility in 1995, so this immediately triggered a controversy about the revisionist views of the FN and the far-right continuity with her father. Her statement was unanimously condemned. She defended herself essentially saying that “Vichy wasn't France”.

---

As of now, the campaign is largely interpreted as a race between 4 candidates: Macron, Le Pen, Fillon and Mélenchon. Hamon is seen as too distanced since he fell below the 10% threshold and his electorate obviously overlaps with Mélenchon's one. He also said that he would prefer to vote Mélenchon in the second round if he didn't reach it himself, which in a way is some symbolic concession of defeat (generally candidates refuse to answer in advance to those kind of scenarii). So far Fillon, Macron and Le Pen didn't take Mélenchon seriously (the left was not expected to have a chance), but now they will probably start attacking him.

Conclusion: things remain unpredictable since between 30 and 40% of the voters are still undecided.

The campaign officially began today, so now speaking times are equal for all candidates.

And so continues the craziest election in the Vth Republic.