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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
Here's an article from the NOS about it.
De partij van Lodewijk Asscher is de meeste kiezers verloren aan GroenLinks. Die partij heeft er 6,5 zetels ten koste van de PvdA bijgekregen. Naar D66 gingen 5 zetels, 4 naar de SP. We zien ook dat een aantal PvdA'ers van weleer niet is komen opdagen, dat kost de partij nog eens bijna 5 zetels. Naar de PVV gingen 2 zetels, ongeveer 7 naar andere partijen.
So 6.5 to GL, 5 to D66 and 4 to SP. 5 because PvdA voters stayed at home, 2 to the PVV (wtf) and 7 to other parties. That doesn't look like a lurch to the left would've made a difference.
http://nos.nl/artikel/2163443-pvda-gedecimeerd-waar-zijn-al-die-stemmers-gebleven.html
On March 16 2017 20:27 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 20:16 RvB wrote:On March 16 2017 19:56 TheDwf wrote:On March 16 2017 19:47 a_flayer wrote:On March 16 2017 19:18 TheDwf wrote:On March 16 2017 11:19 Sent. wrote:
Maybe I'm underestimating the average European voter but I think his familiarity with Trump's presidency should be limited to knowing that:
1) He tried to ban muslims from some Middle-Eastern countries from entering the US but the judiciary stopped him and he's at war with it now
2) Some of his men have suspicious ties to Russia
3) He wasn't joking about building the wall
None of these things should make a FN/UKIP/AfD supporter feel like "aw shit those anti-establishment guys are terrible, I'll stop voting for them now". Indeed. The difference is that it will make all others feel like, “not this s*** in my home”. There was a record for voter registerations in France this year, and apparently a surge had been noticed just after Trump was elected. On March 16 2017 18:50 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
That's brutal for PvdA. Basically only the old people who voted PvdA all their lives voted for them.Nearly 50% above 65 years old lol. Oh, look, another social-democrat party bit the dust. I wonder how many losses they need to realize how catastrophic they are and how stupid it is to govern with the right. Maybe losing 75% of their seats will teach them this hard lesson. But after all, getting steamrolled in every intermediary election, being the most unpopular government in the Vth Republic and even losing the primary to the left wing of their party didn't even make the French ““social-democrats”” think about this, they're still persuased their political line is fine... That hardly seems very tolerant of you. Of course their political line is fine, even if it doesn't get a lot of votes. Everyone is entitled to their own political opinion, are they not? I'm not at all just saying this because my party didn't get in. -_- Oh well, the other party I would have voted for wouldn't have been better off with my vote anyway. Or maybe I should have voted along my location, age and gender(ish) and gone with VVD. You didn't understand. It's not a matter of being “right or wrong” in the absolute. If you're a left-wing party, here's how it works: your social base votes for you because they want certain things from you. If you don't deliver and do the opposite (story of Hollande's mandate, for example), they punish you. Hard. If you're elected on some anti-austerity platform, then do austerity you're going to get stomped at the next elections. And rightfully so. After those electoral sanctions, you have two choices: correct your political line so that it respects what your social base expects from you, or 00x500/920x613/filters:focal(378x178:522x322)/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49493993/this-is-fine.0.jpg" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">ignore reality and keep crashing into the wall. This is why social-democracy took/is taking huge losses in many European countries, until they finally realize what went wrong and stop their drift to the right. Except that they did get elected on a platform to bring the budget in balance on the long term. I looked up for you what PvdA, SP and GL points were on this in 2012. It's in Dutch so sorry for that but I couldn't find an english source. Well, the French anti-austerity left also claims that the budget will be balanced eventually, but of course the methods differ (and above all, who pays). This kind of electoral sanction for the pro-austerity left is a recurring pattern; but I am not aware of the Dutch specifics, so indeed maybe I made some abusive generalization and it's possible that something else played. If there's some specialist of the Dutch left around here, his analysis of the results are welcome. (From what I understood the PvdA votes went to GL?) Yeah, near the end Wilders did drop in the polls, but I remember him being super high a few weeks ago, no? French media were all hysteric about the “populist Wilders” (trying to make the situation akin to Le Pen here so hard), as usual they missed the rest of the picture...
He was polling 30+ seats a couple of months ago. It went down the last few months and he was overtaken in the end in the polls as well. The media (not just French) was hysteric indeed.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Wilders damaged himself by not engaging in pretty much any debate at all(probably part of his strategy but it didn't really help him). Moreover the stance that the VVD took against Turkey possibly may have also swayed voters as well to the VVD from the PVV. There is also the possibility that the PVV has lost some voters to the FvD although not many. Finally the fact that every party has taken a (firm) stance against ruling with the PVV is also likely of note.
Oh and Wilders historically overperforms in the polls anyway, its just that international news outlets made him look bigger and more threatening then he actually is in reality.
I still find it curious that the D66 has 5 seats from the PVDA as they are economically rightwing and are socially progressive quite a bit like GL except that GL is also more leftwing economically.
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D66 is centre economically not really right wing. I think they probably attracted some of the right wing of the PvdA and some who liked their social progressive + education / green focused programme and who found their economic programme acceptable. The latter would be me except that I come from the right wing of the political spectrum instead of the left.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Would you consider CDA right wing economically?
Its pretty hard to define where the center these days.
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Norway28916 Posts
Am I correct in reading that dutchies overall voted yes to more environmentally friendly policies, staunchly yes to the continuation of socially liberal policies, yes to the EU, and no to leftist economic policies?
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Yes to the EU might be a bit of a stretch, considering both VVD and CDA aren't too fond of it (as well as basically all the new parties wanting out of it), but I'd agree with the rest.
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On March 16 2017 21:42 Kipsate wrote:
Would you consider CDA right wing economically?
Its pretty hard to define where the center these days.
Centre right with their points on less regulation and taxes on small businesses and a flat tax. Pretty close to the centre though.
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On March 16 2017 07:12 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 07:06 Gorsameth wrote:On March 16 2017 07:00 LegalLord wrote:
Certainly has the face of a James Bond villain.
As I say, populist sentiment ebbs and flows and 2017 doesn't seem quite as troublesome as 2016. Mostly just the fallout of 16. I think we can thank Trump for that. The world got a bit of a shock there in how bad things can turn out if you go full 'f*** the establishment'. If the populist wave ends where it is right now, then we can probably just say that the Anglosphere made an oopsie and everyone else mostly weathered the storm relatively alright. Realistically, though, this is just like 2014-2015. In the wake of troublesome circumstances the centrists still manage to pull off surprise victories and the populists disappoint. But then 2016 mk II comes and everything goes to shit again. The fundamental causes of populism have not left us and so it will manifest again.
The only underlying cause of populism is economically disaffected people trying to vent their anger against the establishment by voting for whackos. The Dutch economy is already doing much better than when the PVV first reached their polling watermark (roughly September 2015), so there's little to worry about.
Probably the biggest danger is a global recession coming from the United States economy. Not much they can do about that. However, considering the USA has virtually no laws about foreign money influencing our elections, maybe Europe should pool some funds together to campaign for a more sane president/Congress here. I guess that's the best they can do.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
On March 16 2017 21:48 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Am I correct in reading that dutchies overall voted yes to more environmentally friendly policies, staunchly yes to the continuation of socially liberal policies, yes to the EU, and no to leftist economic policies?
This is correct although the VVD has shown to not be that reliable in environmentally friendly policies.
VVD and CDA are fairly pro European or at the very least not against it, GL and D66 are very much pro, PVV is against.. Partially I believe the CDA and VVD attitude may also have to do with years of having to deal with the EU as the PM/various other ministers. Overall, Pro-European parties won while anti-European parties lost or didnt gain as much as they wanted.
The biggest issues in the Netherlands are not even neccesarily immigration or refugees at all but rather the continuation of the welfare state and the economy(and yes some people have the perception that that threatens the welfare/social state). VVD/CDA has done a pretty good job at selling that. PVV has a problem in that it doesn't really adress this issue that much either or doesn't offer much of a solution/policies here (their party programme was also 1 sheet of paper).
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On March 16 2017 21:48 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Am I correct in reading that dutchies overall voted yes to more environmentally friendly policies, staunchly yes to the continuation of socially liberal policies, yes to the EU, and no to leftist economic policies?
Yes to more environment (all the parties that made it a key point have significant victories)
Yes to EU (the staunchly anti-EU parties gained less than the staunchly pro-EU parties)
I'd agree with that those are messages you can get from the elections.
No to leftist economic policies is hard to conclude. Firstly PVV has quite a lot of leftist economic policies. Secondly, I would attribute the decimation of the PvdA to its failure to have an impact on government rather than it having too much impact on government. I guess you could argue that if people wanted more of what they were selling in the first place, they would have fled to the SP, which also lost. On the other hand, the VVD also lost.
Same kind of deal for socially liberal policies. All the conservative Christian parties grew. The populist parties grew (PVV and FvD). On the other hand, both GL and D66 had huge victories as well. What I'd draw from that is that there is a huge division in Dutch society between the socially progressive and the socially conservative, and they voted more extreme than in the previous elections.
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On March 16 2017 20:34 TheDwf wrote:
By the way, did your main right-wing party went to the right (on immigration, etc.) to block Wilders' rise?
I'm pretty sure the VVD went harder on immigration because of Wilders yes (tho I would not go so far as to say it caused the 'riot' with Turkey. After public threats were made the government had no choice in how to act).
It also leads me to question just how much they care about implementing this tougher stance, I expect it to get thrown out pretty readily in the negotiations.
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On March 16 2017 21:42 Kipsate wrote:
Would you consider CDA right wing economically?
Its pretty hard to define where the center these days.
I'd say they're center-right economically and highly conservative on social and privacy/securiy issues (wtf was that debate between Buma and Pechtold? I have no idea how Buma thought that was a bright topic to pick).
D66 is in a similar position economically but is the exact opposite on social and privacy/security issues as well as a much larger focus on green energy. The VVD/CDA/D66 coalition isn't as clear cut or easy as the media is making it sound.
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@Dutch people: How did the social-democrats react to their collapse? Any particular statement?
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It's bugging me how so many politicians and journalists here in germany declare 13% of votes for Wilders-party a great result, a victory for europe etc. If the AfD had 13% in germany, there would be an outrage.
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On March 17 2017 05:23 Mafe wrote:
It's bugging me how so many politicians here in germany declare 13% of votes for Wilders-party a great result. If the AfD had 13% in germany, there would be an outrage.
Then take solace in the fact that many people will be happy if Marine Le Pen scores less than... 25% here. Different standards for each country, depending on how bad it is.
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On March 17 2017 05:23 Mafe wrote:
It's bugging me how so many politicians and journalists here in germany declare 13% of votes for Wilders-party a great result, a victory for europe etc. If the AfD had 13% in germany, there would be an outrage.
it's relative. A few weeks ago Wilders was polling first and people thought that there was a reasonable chance of him winning the election. Now turns out he's back to 2010 levels so obviously he's much weaker than expected.
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On March 17 2017 05:23 Mafe wrote:
It's bugging me how so many politicians and journalists here in germany declare 13% of votes for Wilders-party a great result, a victory for europe etc. If the AfD had 13% in germany, there would be an outrage.
Well on the one hand it's problematic but on the other it's only about 2/3 of what he was expected to get. It's a great result in perspective.
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On March 17 2017 05:02 TheDwf wrote:
@Dutch people: How did the social-democrats react to their collapse? Any particular statement?
Not that I heard. Just the usual "we need to reflect, we will fight to get back ect".
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On March 17 2017 05:30 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2017 05:02 TheDwf wrote:
@Dutch people: How did the social-democrats react to their collapse? Any particular statement? Not that I heard. Just the usual "we need to reflect, we will fight to get back ect".
Hahaha, pathetic. Do they have some kind of congress soon?
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On March 17 2017 05:32 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2017 05:30 Gorsameth wrote:On March 17 2017 05:02 TheDwf wrote:
@Dutch people: How did the social-democrats react to their collapse? Any particular statement? Not that I heard. Just the usual "we need to reflect, we will fight to get back ect". Hahaha, pathetic. Do they have some kind of congress soon?
its been less then a day, how about giving them a bit more time before you start criticizing their lack of reflection.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/baqks2C.png)
