EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 717
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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On March 17 2017 06:19 Artisreal wrote: I think they should have focused on a candidate that is more electable and less hated by the country than Wilders. Yes, maybe they should have. | ||
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Broetchenholer
Germany1950 Posts
Source in german: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/tuerkei-innenminister-sueleyman-soylu-droht-eu-tausende-fluechtlinge-zu-schicken-a-1139237.html This is hilarious until it suddenly isn't anymore. Let's enjoy it for as long as possible  | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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LightSpectra
United States1973 Posts
Erdogan is exactly the type of person that the Turkish constitution envisions should be overthrown by the military in order to safeguard the state's liberal, secular foundations. So there's really no need to believe that there was any foreign influence in the 2016 coup attempt. Although there are many who believe the 2016 coup attempt was actually a false-flag operation on behalf of Erdogan. | ||
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lastpuritan
United States540 Posts
Also, take a different approach towards turkish politicians, think like you're reading Trump's tweets. Whole AKP crew are TRUMPs, nothing else. I expect major anti-eu stance from Turkey from now on, England has very very positive approach towards Turkey about economy and army growth, and they're about to buy s-400s from Russia, Turkey will not be interested in EU as it was 10 years ago. Apart from that, EU haven't provided its promise on free visa, you can expect refugees too. (Don't know why Turkey is still a huge refugee camp for Europe anyways, that's hurting the economy badly just because EU doesn't want their luxury life to be broken. A refugee should be able to migrate anywhere he/she wants, that's our liberal world isn't it?) On March 18 2017 00:37 LightSpectra wrote: For those not in the know, the Turkish constitution explicitly allows the military to initiate a coup d'etat. The history of this is long and complicated, but in short, it was a provision that was created by the founding-fathers of the Republic of Turkey in order to prevent a demagogic Islamist subversion of their secular democracy. Erdogan is exactly the type of person that the Turkish constitution envisions should be overthrown by the military in order to safeguard the state's liberal, secular foundations. So there's really no need to believe that there was any foreign influence in the 2016 coup attempt. Although there are many who believe the 2016 coup attempt was actually a false-flag operation on behalf of Erdogan. LOL that was the most weird post I've seen about Turkey. First of all, Turkey was never a true democracy. Founding fathers were racist assholes who weren't indeed seculars. They founded Presidency of Religious Affairs in Turkey to control and bend the religion according to their agenda. If they were clever enough to pro-vision anything they would try to be more liberal and create a better Turkey that no Erdogans will appear, instead of executing many right wing/free market/religious liberals. This is their job. No one else but them made Erdogan this famous. The people who claim the coup was false flag are equivalent of the people who think Netherlands was behind it. They should be educated. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Broetchenholer
Germany1950 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On March 18 2017 01:12 LegalLord wrote: French election polls seem quite stable over the past month or so. Any other anticipated events that could change the results substantially? The actual beginning of the campaign tomorrow (the final list of candidates will be know, there should be from 8 to 11 pretenders), the first debate between the 5 biggest candidates in polls Monday, the next debates on April 4th and 20th, ... The volatility is still high, between 30 and 50% of the electorate isn't sure of his choice (i.e. more than 10 millions of people). | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On March 18 2017 01:30 LegalLord wrote: Is that a standard amount of uncertainty or is that unusually high? Unusually high, yes. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
What's a normal percentage undecided? | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On March 18 2017 01:12 LegalLord wrote: French election polls seem quite stable over the past month or so. Any other anticipated events that could change the results substantially? Depends what you mean by "substantially". At this point, no anticipated event can prevent Le Pen from reaching the second round, and no anticipated event can prevent Le Pen from losing the second round. But since this campaign has so far been characterized by an unusual amount of unanticipated events, I wouldn't bet on results not changing substantially. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On March 18 2017 03:27 OtherWorld wrote: Depends what you mean by "substantially". At this point, no anticipated event can prevent Le Pen from reaching the second round, and no anticipated event can prevent Le Pen from losing the second round. But since this campaign has so far been characterized by an unusual amount of unanticipated events, I wouldn't bet on results not changing substantially. Well if there really is 50% undecideds, you could definitely see some dramatic changes. Macron, for one, is hardly safe. He seems to be riding high on a wave of positive depictions but he could easily be smacked down later on. Vice versa with Fillon. It's possible for either of them to make Round 2. At this point, barring some massive change in opinions, Macron is unlikely to lose to Le Pen. The stable 20 point margin is unlikely to falter quite enough for that purpose. Fillon might be able to pull off a loss given that his margin is much smaller. But would Fillon be able to squeeze out a few percentage points to make Round 2? I don't see this as unlikely. Fair description or no? | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
Looks really, really good. I hope he can win this election. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6261 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On March 18 2017 04:01 LegalLord wrote: Well if there really is 50% undecideds, you could definitely see some dramatic changes. Macron, for one, is hardly safe. He seems to be riding high on a wave of positive depictions but he could easily be smacked down later on. Vice versa with Fillon. It's possible for either of them to make Round 2. At this point, barring some massive change in opinions, Macron is unlikely to lose to Le Pen. The stable 20 point margin is unlikely to falter quite enough for that purpose. Fillon might be able to pull off a loss given that his margin is much smaller. But would Fillon be able to squeeze out a few percentage points to make Round 2? I don't see this as unlikely. Fair description or no? Given the current context of the recent Fillon scandal and the general opinion towards politicians, I'd analyze the figure of 40% not being certain of their vote as people being careful of potential unexpected events/hidden things about their chosen candidate, not as people being completely undecided. I mean, if we take Ifop, the question asked to assess certainty is : "Would you say that you are sure of your choice, or that you could still change it ?". Thus, basically saying "I will vote for X and won't change my opinion, whatever happens" more than one month away from the election is to me something that a good chunk of progressive voters simply won't do. Thus, I believe that most people who say they'll vote for Macron but aren't sure of their choice are just people with a 70/80% chance of voting Macron and not people with a 100% of voting Macron. Suddenly, seeing things that way makes substantial changes much less likely. About Fillon's chances : honestly, his undecided voters rate is at 40% at the moment, not far from Macron's 50%, and very far from Le Pen's 20%. Thus, I see no reason to believe that Fillon might magically come back from a 5+% disadvantage, while Macron would somehow lose a 5+% advantage, unless you decide that Fillon's "undecideds" are less undecided than Macron's. And I wouldn't call Macron "hardly safe" : when you "ride high on a wave of positive depictions" for 6+ months, you won't easily be smacked down. He saw a big gap in the political spectrum, a huge opportunity, and he took it, as the good entrepreneur and master politician he no doubt is. I know the fact that Le Pen is Le Pen and Macron is playing the narrative of "the progressive candidate" makes it tempting to make a Trump - Clinton analogy, but Le Pen has not much in common with Trump, and Macron has close to nothing in common with Clinton as a candidate. Her main flaws - lack of charisma, embodiment of the establishment, age, support of an rich and huge but ineffective party, open contempt towards her adversary's voter base, etc - are not Macron's. Tbh, Macron's main weakness right now is precisely that he's considered as the favorite so early in the campaign. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
Hmm can't tell the exact number from the past campaigns, maybe 10-15 points lower? It's mostly the expected participation rate which is low so far. The campaign is perceived as low quality for 80% of the polled people. On March 18 2017 04:01 LegalLord wrote: Well if there really is 50% undecideds, you could definitely see some dramatic changes. Macron, for one, is hardly safe. He seems to be riding high on a wave of positive depictions but he could easily be smacked down later on. Vice versa with Fillon. It's possible for either of them to make Round 2. At this point, barring some massive change in opinions, Macron is unlikely to lose to Le Pen. The stable 20 point margin is unlikely to falter quite enough for that purpose. Fillon might be able to pull off a loss given that his margin is much smaller. But would Fillon be able to squeeze out a few percentage points to make Round 2? I don't see this as unlikely. Fair description or no? Seems fair to me. Macron won't stay that high, other candidates will bash him nonstop. Should also pay attention to whoever will devour the other one at the left, the qualification threshold for the second round could be low (around 20%) and a few points might contribute to create a third contender for the “who will face Le Pen at the second round” contest. | ||
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