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On March 16 2017 07:12 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 07:06 Gorsameth wrote:On March 16 2017 07:00 LegalLord wrote:
Certainly has the face of a James Bond villain.
As I say, populist sentiment ebbs and flows and 2017 doesn't seem quite as troublesome as 2016. Mostly just the fallout of 16. I think we can thank Trump for that. The world got a bit of a shock there in how bad things can turn out if you go full 'f*** the establishment'. If the populist wave ends where it is right now, then we can probably just say that the Anglosphere made an oopsie and everyone else mostly weathered the storm relatively alright. Realistically, though, this is just like 2014-2015. In the wake of troublesome circumstances the centrists still manage to pull off surprise victories and the populists disappoint. But then 2016 mk II comes and everything goes to shit again. The fundamental causes of populism have not left us and so it will manifest again.
Important reason is the difference in voting system. The US has affirmative action for populists build into the election system and the two party system makes hijacking parties from the inside easy. The European multi party system is much better at keeping populists out.
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On March 16 2017 07:06 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 07:00 LegalLord wrote:
Certainly has the face of a James Bond villain.
As I say, populist sentiment ebbs and flows and 2017 doesn't seem quite as troublesome as 2016. Mostly just the fallout of 16. I think we can thank Trump for that. The world got a bit of a shock there in how bad things can turn out if you go full 'f*** the establishment'.
Yeah, European populists were claiming that Brexit or Trump would help their cause, but I highly doubt that. If anything, it made their hardcore electorate base even more fanatical, but scared away everyone else.
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On March 16 2017 06:56 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
He's like a comic book villian...
In the end Wilders still got larger. He might become the countries 2nd largest party. And there's a new alt-right party FvD that also grabs 2 seats in the exitpolls.
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On March 16 2017 07:14 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On March 16 2017 07:06 Gorsameth wrote:On March 16 2017 07:00 LegalLord wrote:
Certainly has the face of a James Bond villain.
As I say, populist sentiment ebbs and flows and 2017 doesn't seem quite as troublesome as 2016. Mostly just the fallout of 16. I think we can thank Trump for that. The world got a bit of a shock there in how bad things can turn out if you go full 'f*** the establishment'. If the populist wave ends where it is right now, then we can probably just say that the Anglosphere made an oopsie and everyone else mostly weathered the storm relatively alright. Realistically, though, this is just like 2014-2015. In the wake of troublesome circumstances the centrists still manage to pull off surprise victories and the populists disappoint. But then 2016 mk II comes and everything goes to shit again. The fundamental causes of populism have not left us and so it will manifest again. Important reason is the difference in voting system. The US has affirmative action for populists build into the election system and the two party system makes hijacking parties from the inside easy. The European multi party system is much better at keeping populists out.
Probably so. But I wonder if it can really last forever. If you're dealing with 20% populists it's doable. If you're dealing with 40%, then yeah, you could form a coalition against them, but it would be the most confused and bumbling coalition imaginable that would just allow endless deadlock.
Populists seem to be in the 20-30% range right now in most places. Could get worse.
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On March 16 2017 07:18 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 07:14 Nyxisto wrote:On March 16 2017 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On March 16 2017 07:06 Gorsameth wrote:On March 16 2017 07:00 LegalLord wrote:
Certainly has the face of a James Bond villain.
As I say, populist sentiment ebbs and flows and 2017 doesn't seem quite as troublesome as 2016. Mostly just the fallout of 16. I think we can thank Trump for that. The world got a bit of a shock there in how bad things can turn out if you go full 'f*** the establishment'. If the populist wave ends where it is right now, then we can probably just say that the Anglosphere made an oopsie and everyone else mostly weathered the storm relatively alright. Realistically, though, this is just like 2014-2015. In the wake of troublesome circumstances the centrists still manage to pull off surprise victories and the populists disappoint. But then 2016 mk II comes and everything goes to shit again. The fundamental causes of populism have not left us and so it will manifest again. Important reason is the difference in voting system. The US has affirmative action for populists build into the election system and the two party system makes hijacking parties from the inside easy. The European multi party system is much better at keeping populists out. Probably so. But I wonder if it can really last forever. If you're dealing with 20% populists it's doable. If you're dealing with 40%, then yeah, you could form a coalition against them, but it would be the most confused and bumbling coalition imaginable that would just allow endless deadlock. Populists seem to be in the 20-30% range right now in most places. Could get worse.
True but there's lots of external factors that gave populists lots and lots of fuel that might not be there in a few years. The immigration situation most importantly(which might happen again but historically populism always died down, happened a few times now after the 60s/70s in Germany and later after the iron curtain came down), Europe finally seems to pull out of the financial crisis and also millenials will for the first time be the biggest voting block in 4-5 years.
So yes it might get worse but it might also have been a cry from the deathbed, at least for the kind of reactionary nationalist populism. Maybe some different form will take over. In Spain and Portugal left-wingers are pretty strong. That might have a future.
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I think the average voter in Europe stopped caring about American politics after the elections. Trump won, it was funny but that's it, nobody is going to change their prefered party because American president decided to build a wall.
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On March 16 2017 05:18 RvB wrote:
Since VVD is first they get to try to form a coalition first. Their preferred partner is CDA (centre left) and then most likely D66. With that they'd still miss 6 seats tho so either GL or PvdA.
Yes the other parties are left. We've had anti establishment since thr start of the 2000s so I guess we're used to it. It has had influence on our politics though since parties like CDA and Labour got a lot tougher on immigration this election. It's one of the big reasons I decided to vote for D66 instead of VVD. They're one of the parties not so anti immigrant as the rest.
CDA is not centre left, they opposed the old government from the right(mocking the tax increases and nivelering(a dutch word meaning something like equalising incomes)), aside from elderly care their economic positions are very close to VVD, most of their coalitions with PVDA have been full of mistrust and disagreement, while their coalitions with VVD go smooth and with much less disagreements between the two and coalitions form fast as they agree on most points. They oppose extra refugees and are in favor of getting rid of double nationalities, they are more conservative then dutch norms on ethical questions.
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On March 16 2017 07:21 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 07:18 LegalLord wrote:On March 16 2017 07:14 Nyxisto wrote:On March 16 2017 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On March 16 2017 07:06 Gorsameth wrote:On March 16 2017 07:00 LegalLord wrote:
Certainly has the face of a James Bond villain.
As I say, populist sentiment ebbs and flows and 2017 doesn't seem quite as troublesome as 2016. Mostly just the fallout of 16. I think we can thank Trump for that. The world got a bit of a shock there in how bad things can turn out if you go full 'f*** the establishment'. If the populist wave ends where it is right now, then we can probably just say that the Anglosphere made an oopsie and everyone else mostly weathered the storm relatively alright. Realistically, though, this is just like 2014-2015. In the wake of troublesome circumstances the centrists still manage to pull off surprise victories and the populists disappoint. But then 2016 mk II comes and everything goes to shit again. The fundamental causes of populism have not left us and so it will manifest again. Important reason is the difference in voting system. The US has affirmative action for populists build into the election system and the two party system makes hijacking parties from the inside easy. The European multi party system is much better at keeping populists out. Probably so. But I wonder if it can really last forever. If you're dealing with 20% populists it's doable. If you're dealing with 40%, then yeah, you could form a coalition against them, but it would be the most confused and bumbling coalition imaginable that would just allow endless deadlock. Populists seem to be in the 20-30% range right now in most places. Could get worse. True but there's lots of external factors that gave populists lots and lots of fuel that might not be there in a few years. The immigration situation most importantly(which might happen again but historically populism always died down, happened a few times now after the 60s/70s in Germany and later after the iron curtain came down), Europe finally seems to pull out of the financial crisis and also millenials will for the first time be the biggest voting block in 4-5 years. So yes it might get worse but it might also have been a cry from the deathbed, at least for the kind of reactionary nationalist populism. Maybe some different form will take over. In Spain and Portugal left-wingers are pretty strong. That might have a future.
Immigration certainly is an important fuel for right-wing populism that is probably going to dissipate if countries take a more sensible approach to screening entrants.
Economics, I'm not seeing that being "good" any time in the near future - only "less bad." Sure, we're getting some pretty massive economic rally courtesy of Trump but those that aren't stupid known that it's just a precursor to a bigger implosion. His economic policies are idiotic and are going to take all of us down with him.
I think you get maybe a year's respite. Maybe two if you're lucky. More than that, I expect we will be right back to where we are now, only even worse.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Labour party is on prognoses to lose 29 and the Socialist party has gained exactly -2 rofl, time to quit.
Some really weird results coming out of the prognoses.
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I mean you can paint this as a defeat of the far right but hasn't the left been completely wiped off the political spectrum in the Netherlands now? Wilders still made significant gains, too.
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Legallord the US economy good news has nothing to do with Trump - especially since he has not unveiled any significant new policy - and it's looking like little will actually be accomplished policy wise, so I don't think there's reason to believe there will be a recession because of him.
Sent. American politics is the topic at lunch in Portugal every other day. I was just in Spain on business and Trump was a subject in 2 out of 4 meetings. In my experience, Europeans really are paying attention.
Nyxisto the far left parties in Portugal have no future in government because it's impossible for them to actually do what they say they want to do - unilaterally restructure debt, nationalize the utilities and all the banks, leave NATO and the Euro. Unless there's some sort of disaster, I don't see how they could ever get more than 25% of the vote. By definition, these kinds of platforms only appeal to two niches - idealistic youths and a segment of public workers and pensioners.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
On March 16 2017 09:03 bardtown wrote:
I mean you can paint this as a defeat of the far right but hasn't the left been completely wiped off the political spectrum in the Netherlands now? Wilders still made significant gains, too.
Economically left is in trouble, however in terms of left "progressive/culturral wise" this is a defeat of the far right. Two of the largest gains were also made with fairly pro European parties. Wilders gained 4 but greens gained 11 and D66 gained 7(for now). Depends on your definition of left.
All the international media seems to make an example out of us for some reason, our political system/landscape doesn't allow for some of the pitfalls that other countries have gotten into though.
Impressive turnout nonetheless, 84.5% projected right now.
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Legallord the US economy good news has nothing to do with Trump - especially since he has not unveiled any significant new policy - and it's looking like little will actually be accomplished policy wise, so I don't think there's reason to believe there will be a recession because of him.
A lot of people are gambling on him building that wall, deregulating finance and investing in the military on wall street, hence investing into these businesses. That in turn makes many analysts think that Dow Jones is heavily overrated and bound to crash eventually, in particular if the FED rate increases and people go out of stocks and into bonds again, leading to a bursting bubble on the stock markets. I think that's what LL was taking about.
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On March 16 2017 07:21 Sent. wrote:
I think the average voter in Europe stopped caring about American politics after the elections. Trump won, it was funny but that's it, nobody is going to change their prefered party because American president decided to build a wall.
I am not that sure about that.
I think that after watching how utterly shit Trump is at doing anything, be it doing something good or even delivering on his ridiculously stupid promises, the desire of getting someone like in your country is bound to drop. Even if you are generally on board with the whole right-wing populist platform, you can still see that their great promises don't materialize after the election, the only thing you end up with is a broken government unable to do anything at all. And i think the amount of people who want that is significantly lower than the amount of people who would otherwise vote for rightwing populists.
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Maybe I'm underestimating the average European voter but I think his familiarity with Trump's presidency should be limited to knowing that:
1) He tried to ban muslims from some Middle-Eastern countries from entering the US but the judiciary stopped him and he's at war with it now
2) Some of his men have suspicious ties to Russia
3) He wasn't joking about building the wall
None of these things should make a FN/UKIP/AfD supporter feel like "aw shit those anti-establishment guys are terrible, I'll stop voting for them now".
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You're overestimating how confident they are in their votes. The NPD and other fringe far-right parties in Germany usually together get like <5%. The AfD expanded hugely over the course of two years. Those people are not committed ideologues, they just want to vent. Now that they see what happens when populists get into office they prefer to tone it down a little.
FN is a little more different because they seem to have consolidated and gathered a fairly sizeable base. But that's not the case in every European country.
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On March 16 2017 07:04 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2017 06:27 TheDwf wrote:
@Dutch people: so how many points and seats did the social-democrats lose? Depends on how you count social democrats. If you count that as PvdA, they got decimated. They're down from 38 to 9 seats in Parliament, and it's their largest defeat ever. If you count social democrats as PvdA, GL and D66, then they "only" lost 10 seats: both GL and D66 are up significantly. And if you add DENK in there as well, then they're down 7. How on earth DENK gets 3 seats is beyond me, but that's what the exit polls predict.
D66 aren't social democrats they're social liberals. I don't vote for social democrats.
You're right Annedeman. I meant to say CDA is centre right. That's why the VVD prefers to coalition with them. Made some dumb mistakes yesterday lol.
On March 16 2017 10:29 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +Legallord the US economy good news has nothing to do with Trump - especially since he has not unveiled any significant new policy - and it's looking like little will actually be accomplished policy wise, so I don't think there's reason to believe there will be a recession because of him. A lot of people are gambling on him building that wall, deregulating finance and investing in the military on wall street, hence investing into these businesses. That in turn makes many analysts think that Dow Jones is heavily overrated and bound to crash eventually, in particular if the FED rate increases and people go out of stocks and into bonds again, leading to a bursting bubble on the stock markets. I think that's what LL was taking about.
Trumps rally has nothing to do with Europe. Our recovery is broadly based on lower, unemployment, increased PMI in services and manufacturing, higher gdp growth and mroe inflation. Only Greece is the odd one out. The recovery started way before Trump got elected.
Increasing interest rates makes people go out of bonds not into them. Increasing interest rates make bonds worth less. I don't disagree that the stockmarkets are overpriced atm though.
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I am so, so, so very sorry, but this must not remain unposted here, even though I am aware of possible consequences.
+ Show Spoiler +
User was temp banned for this post.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Chances are we are likely going to end up with a VVD CDA CU D66 coalition but its going to be an incredibly tough negotiation either way. I don't expect us to get a new government soon. Hoping for VVD CDA D66 Greens but that seems very unlikely(and even hard to negotiate).
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/fa2JuUk.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/KUhl6mv.png)
Some graphs on who voted what.
The first is men vs women (blue = men, red = women)
The second is by age group
The third is by education (THe darkest green = high educated and the lightest = low educated)
The fourth is whether the voters who voted for the party this election already did so in 2012. So if we take D66 for example the red bar means the amount of voters who voted for D66 this election but did not do so in 2012 (that's me!:p).
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/4vFHQtC.jpg)
