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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 712

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18870 Posts
March 15 2017 13:17 GMT
#14221
Communists tend to do well in winter though
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-15 13:19:30
March 15 2017 13:19 GMT
#14222
On March 15 2017 22:17 farvacola wrote:
Communists tend to do well in winter though


We took them down on November 17 !
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 15 2017 20:06 GMT
#14223
I'd assume that in the light of the Turkey issue, Wilders looked significantly worse than the incumbent and that the results will reflect that fact. I don't see as much anti-establishment pressure in NL as in France or especially Britain, not quite yet at least.

By the way, did NL pass the Ukraine association agreement yet? I heard it got out of limbo but did it ratify fully yet?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6325 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-15 20:11:41
March 15 2017 20:09 GMT
#14224
Current exit polls:

VVD (conservative liberal) 31
PvdA (labour) 9
Pvv (Wilders) 19
SP (Far left) 14
CDA (Christian Democrats) 19
D66 (Social Liberals) 19
CU (Christian left) 6
Greenleft (Greens) 16
SGP (Hardcore christian eformed party) 3
PvdD (Animal party) 5
50+ (Party for elderly) 4
Denk (Minority party) 3
FvD 2 (Mixed classical liberal / direct democracy party, kind of hard to place tbh)

So VVD clear winners with 31 seats. PVV, CDA and D66 shared third with 19 seats. I voted for D66 myself so I am happy with that. I'd have liked it if PVV had a little less seats but they didn't win at least.

There's plenty of anti establishment pressure LegalLord. The difference is that it's very spread out in our system. It's spread between PVV, SP, PvdD, 50+, Denk and FvD.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
March 15 2017 20:11 GMT
#14225
fuckyes even the greens are almost as strong as Wilders!
passive quaranstream fan
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6325 Posts
March 15 2017 20:12 GMT
#14226
Yes, it's important to note that it's just an exit poll. Shifts do still happen (usually around 20 seats).
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
March 15 2017 20:14 GMT
#14227
Indeed, I just wanted to enjoy the moment, I'm aware that its just 15 min after closure of the polling stations
passive quaranstream fan
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2397 Posts
March 15 2017 20:15 GMT
#14228
On March 16 2017 05:09 RvB wrote:
Current exit polls:

VVD (conservative liberal) 31
PvdA (labour) 9
Pvv (Wilders) 19
SP (Far left) 14
CDA (Christian Democrats) 19
D66 (Social Liberals) 19
CU (Christian left) 6
Greenleft (Greens) 16
SGP (Hardcore christian eformed party) 3
PvdD (Animal party) 5
50+ (Party for elderly) 4
Denk (Minority party) 3
FvD 2 (Mixed classical liberal / direct democracy party, kind of hard to place tbh)

So VVD clear winners with 31 seats. PVV, CDA and D66 shared third with 19 seats. I voted for D66 myself so I am happy with that. I'd have liked it if PVV had a little less seats but they didn't win at least.

There's plenty of anti establishment pressure LegalLord. The difference is that it's very spread out in our system. It's spread between PVV, SP, PvdD, 50+, Denk and FvD.

So if the results end up exactly like that, what's the likeliest coalition?
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 15 2017 20:17 GMT
#14229
The other "anti establishment" parties seem more leftward, yes?

Still, their seat count collectively appears significantly lower than what I would expect if the same elections happened in the US, UK, or France. All of Europe has strong anti-establishment trends but I wouldn't say NL has it especially bad.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6325 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-15 20:22:14
March 15 2017 20:18 GMT
#14230
Since VVD is first they get to try to form a coalition first. Their preferred partner is CDA (centre left) and then most likely D66. With that they'd still miss 6 seats tho so either GL or PvdA.

Yes the other parties are left. We've had anti establishment since thr start of the 2000s so I guess we're used to it. It has had influence on our politics though since parties like CDA and Labour got a lot tougher on immigration this election. It's one of the big reasons I decided to vote for D66 instead of VVD. They're one of the parties not so anti immigrant as the rest.
Mafe
Profile Joined February 2011
Germany5966 Posts
March 15 2017 20:21 GMT
#14231
On a scale of 0 to 10, whats the least amount of toads that will be swallowed by each party in the most likely coalition government? (Apply historical standards)
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 15 2017 20:27 GMT
#14232
Any tracker for results?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2397 Posts
March 15 2017 20:29 GMT
#14233
On March 16 2017 05:27 LegalLord wrote:
Any tracker for results?

https://lfverkiezingen.appspot.com/nos/widget/main.html
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
Netherlands30548 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-15 20:40:09
March 15 2017 20:37 GMT
#14234
On March 16 2017 05:15 warding wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 16 2017 05:09 RvB wrote:
Current exit polls:

VVD (conservative liberal) 31
PvdA (labour) 9
Pvv (Wilders) 19
SP (Far left) 14
CDA (Christian Democrats) 19
D66 (Social Liberals) 19
CU (Christian left) 6
Greenleft (Greens) 16
SGP (Hardcore christian eformed party) 3
PvdD (Animal party) 5
50+ (Party for elderly) 4
Denk (Minority party) 3
FvD 2 (Mixed classical liberal / direct democracy party, kind of hard to place tbh)

So VVD clear winners with 31 seats. PVV, CDA and D66 shared third with 19 seats. I voted for D66 myself so I am happy with that. I'd have liked it if PVV had a little less seats but they didn't win at least.

There's plenty of anti establishment pressure LegalLord. The difference is that it's very spread out in our system. It's spread between PVV, SP, PvdD, 50+, Denk and FvD.

So if the results end up exactly like that, what's the likeliest coalition?

VVD+CDA+D66+Greens will be the first option looked at probably if the real results are close to this

But it's gonna be so complicated.

Neosteel Enthusiast
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2397 Posts
March 15 2017 20:39 GMT
#14235
Thank you Dutchlese people for, apparently, bringing back some sanity to world politics.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6325 Posts
March 15 2017 20:43 GMT
#14236
Prognosis of turnout is 81% compared to 74.6 last year and the highest since 1986 (85.6%).
Fildun
Profile Joined December 2012
Netherlands4124 Posts
March 15 2017 20:45 GMT
#14237
It's gonna be interesting to see whether VVD + CDA + D66 + CU will have 76 or more. Personally I think that's more likely than GL.
Thorakh
Profile Joined April 2011
Netherlands1788 Posts
March 15 2017 20:48 GMT
#14238
On March 16 2017 05:37 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 16 2017 05:15 warding wrote:
On March 16 2017 05:09 RvB wrote:
Current exit polls:

VVD (conservative liberal) 31
PvdA (labour) 9
Pvv (Wilders) 19
SP (Far left) 14
CDA (Christian Democrats) 19
D66 (Social Liberals) 19
CU (Christian left) 6
Greenleft (Greens) 16
SGP (Hardcore christian eformed party) 3
PvdD (Animal party) 5
50+ (Party for elderly) 4
Denk (Minority party) 3
FvD 2 (Mixed classical liberal / direct democracy party, kind of hard to place tbh)

So VVD clear winners with 31 seats. PVV, CDA and D66 shared third with 19 seats. I voted for D66 myself so I am happy with that. I'd have liked it if PVV had a little less seats but they didn't win at least.

There's plenty of anti establishment pressure LegalLord. The difference is that it's very spread out in our system. It's spread between PVV, SP, PvdD, 50+, Denk and FvD.

So if the results end up exactly like that, what's the likeliest coalition?

VVD+CDA+D66+Greens will be the first option looked at probably if the real results are close to this

But it's gonna be so complicated.

Would be funny though, a coalition formed of the full left-to-right spectrum
Sr18
Profile Joined April 2006
Netherlands1141 Posts
March 15 2017 20:52 GMT
#14239
To make things complicated, the coalition wants to have a majority in the Eerste Kamer (senate) as well.
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't Park Yeong Min - CJ fighting!
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6325 Posts
March 15 2017 20:56 GMT
#14240
Coalition with CU will most likely only have a 1or 2 seat majority which is pretty unstable. We've seen parliamentarians leave their party more than once. In this case it would cost them.the majority.

I've just checked and both coalitions (vvd+cda+d66 + either gl or cu) have a majority in the senate.
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