|
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
some updates:
- Klaus Iohannis went to the magistracy(CSM) which went to the Constitutional Court(CCR) so all the higher courts were "noticed"(legal) about the issue but the one that needs to initiate the legal procedures is the public advocate; he says it can only happen in 10 days from the time the executive order was published in Monitorul Oficial(like a Federal Register of sorts), after it becomes law.
given the fact that in early january the same public advocate notified our constitutional court about the unconstitutionality of the old 2001 law(forbidding those with convictions from holding a public office) basically siding with PSD/govt., the assumption is that he won't start anything.
- there are scheduled demonstrations throughout those 10 days; yesterday, the police - demonstrators conflict was instigated by galleries of <sports clubs>. the intelligence service notified the internal affairs(police/gendarmerie) beforehand but in the end it pretty much killed the meeting/demonstration. the conflict gave pro-PSD media outlets(Antena3 mostly) the pretext to call demonstrators names(hooligans, uncivilized, violent, destructive and so on).
- there are reports of changes to those ordinances but i don't believe them yet; they look clickbaity.
- business environment minister Florin Jianu already resigned(seemingly based on the same facebook post; i'm thinking some mistranslations somewhere);
- a minor state secretary and an ex-minister also resigned from his function/PSD party, respectively, over this issue;
|
Can I call Romania "little Brazil" from now on? It sounds like they follow the exact same playbook. From how to deal with the courts, to how to smash protests, Bucharest could be Brasilia and nobody would know the difference.
|
On February 02 2017 18:03 Furikawari wrote:
New and fresh: introduced by Attali to Rotschild where he became an associate, not just a banker, next supported Minc when this one try to take Le Monde, yeah, fresh.
Macron is a pure product of the french elitist etablishment, nothing fresh in this guy except for people that have no clue.
Looks like you missed the second part of the sentence
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On February 02 2017 17:58 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2017 08:44 LegalLord wrote:
So what is the general opinion of Macron in France? I heard a few vague criticisms of him for defecting and a lot of praise as the "not Le Pen hope" but that's not really very helpful for gauging how well he is viewed. Roughly : The "hardline" leftists (from Hamon to the far left, basically) hate him for being the "medias' candidate", for being a former banker who became a Minister in a socialist government, and for pursuing a non-socialist policy while being Minister (and basically for using his Minister stint as a launchpad for his campaign). The "hardline" right-wingers (from Fillon to the far right) hate him for being the "medias' candidate", for being a former Minister in a socialist government, and for being progressive on society issues. Everyone in between is rather positive about him, as he definitely has a lot of charisma, is young and fresh for French politics, and (supposedly, as he still hasn't released his plans) proposes something that no one else currently proposes : liberal economic policies, and progressive societal policies.
I see why Le Pen thinks she would prefer to face him. He sounds like a fragile little wonder child waiting to be smacked around by reality.
|
We'll have to wait for Macron to start his campaign by himself, only medias are campaigning for him atm. Strangley it's rather easy to be popular when you say nothing.
From reporters without borders, it sums up the situation of medias in France pretty well.
Though journalists in France are generally free and their work protected by the law, the media landscape is basically made of groups whose owners – industrialists in particular – may have other objectives in mind than defending editorial independence. Political and financial pressures are more and more frequent.
rsf.org
|
On February 02 2017 19:44 Acrofales wrote:Can I call Romania "little Brazil" from now on? It sounds like they follow the exact same playbook. From how to deal with the courts, to how to smash protests, Bucharest could be Brasilia and nobody would know the difference. that looks more like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mineriad and not like how it is now; besides those thugs, there's no one breaking things now. The Mineriads (Romanian: Mineriadă) were a series of violent activities by Jiu Valley miners in Bucharest during the 1990s, particularly 1990–91. The term "Mineriad" alone is mostly used to refer to the most violent event, which occurred June 13–15, 1990. During the 1990s, the Jiu Valley miners played a visible role in Romanian politics, and their violence reflected inter-political and societal struggles in post-Revolution Romania.
|
On February 02 2017 20:54 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2017 17:58 OtherWorld wrote:On February 02 2017 08:44 LegalLord wrote:
So what is the general opinion of Macron in France? I heard a few vague criticisms of him for defecting and a lot of praise as the "not Le Pen hope" but that's not really very helpful for gauging how well he is viewed. Roughly : The "hardline" leftists (from Hamon to the far left, basically) hate him for being the "medias' candidate", for being a former banker who became a Minister in a socialist government, and for pursuing a non-socialist policy while being Minister (and basically for using his Minister stint as a launchpad for his campaign). The "hardline" right-wingers (from Fillon to the far right) hate him for being the "medias' candidate", for being a former Minister in a socialist government, and for being progressive on society issues. Everyone in between is rather positive about him, as he definitely has a lot of charisma, is young and fresh for French politics, and (supposedly, as he still hasn't released his plans) proposes something that no one else currently proposes : liberal economic policies, and progressive societal policies. I see why Le Pen thinks she would prefer to face him. He sounds like a fragile little wonder child waiting to be smacked around by reality.
I wouldn't underestimate him. Being at 20+% in the polls literally just by being there is no small feat. Every single one of his decisions since joining the government has been good for him, too. He has all the traits of the master politician, without having (yet) the negative image associated with master politicians. Besides, hardline left and right-wingers are very vocal, but being vocal doesn't give your vote more weight.
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On February 02 2017 22:05 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2017 20:54 LegalLord wrote:On February 02 2017 17:58 OtherWorld wrote:On February 02 2017 08:44 LegalLord wrote:
So what is the general opinion of Macron in France? I heard a few vague criticisms of him for defecting and a lot of praise as the "not Le Pen hope" but that's not really very helpful for gauging how well he is viewed. Roughly : The "hardline" leftists (from Hamon to the far left, basically) hate him for being the "medias' candidate", for being a former banker who became a Minister in a socialist government, and for pursuing a non-socialist policy while being Minister (and basically for using his Minister stint as a launchpad for his campaign). The "hardline" right-wingers (from Fillon to the far right) hate him for being the "medias' candidate", for being a former Minister in a socialist government, and for being progressive on society issues. Everyone in between is rather positive about him, as he definitely has a lot of charisma, is young and fresh for French politics, and (supposedly, as he still hasn't released his plans) proposes something that no one else currently proposes : liberal economic policies, and progressive societal policies. I see why Le Pen thinks she would prefer to face him. He sounds like a fragile little wonder child waiting to be smacked around by reality. I wouldn't underestimate him. Being at 20+% in the polls literally just by being there is no small feat. Every single one of his decisions since joining the government has been good for him, too. He has all the traits of the master politician, without having (yet) the negative image associated with master politicians. Besides, hardline left and right-wingers are very vocal, but being vocal doesn't give your vote more weight.
I mean it's hard to underestimate him when he's currently favored to win overall. But he sounds like something of a "fake consensus candidate" like Hillary Clinton, except with less of the baggage but all of the lack of competitive electoral victories to his name. Candidates who are put in the spotlight start to get scrutinized quite severely and he'll get his soon enough.
Could still win? I mean he's favored, so of course. But I also see why Le Pen wants to face him. He looks like someone who would be easy pickings against a well-run smear campaign.
|
After Fillon withdraws, Macron will be the next one to crash.
|
TheDwf, what is your opinion on Mélenchon?
|
WOW...
The most recent polling in Germany after the the SPD announces Schulz as chancellor candidate+party leader is quite shocking/surprising... And that polling was done by the ARD/infratest dimap, who are usually rather reliable. (Spiegel had some earlier numbers but they lack history and I don't trust them yet)
In brackets are the changes compared to last month, which was before the Schulz announcement.
1) If the chancellor would be a direct vote:
Merkel 41 (-7)
Schulz 50 (+9)
Neither 7 (-4)
2) Which party should lead the government:
CDU 39 (-12)
SPD 50 (+14)
3) "Sonntagsfrage" (sunday question): If today was election sunday, who would you vote:
CDU 34 (-3)
SPD 28 (+8)
Left 8 (-1)
Green 8(-1)
FDP (Liberals) 6(+1)
AfD 12(-3)
Others 4(-1)
Yes I expected a big boost for the SPD with Schulz, because Gabriel was considered entirely unelectable as chancellor option. But this... is massive. The lack of motivation at the SPD was evident over all those years, but Schulz seemingly completely mobilized the party in only 2 weeks.
But well... now Schulz has to show substance too. This is the second big issue of the SPD...
But this election could get way more exciting than everyone expected.
|
On February 02 2017 23:29 LightSpectra wrote:
TheDwf, what is your opinion on Mélenchon?
I welcome the fact that something interesting is finally happening at the left of the PS. He did the best campaign in 2012 and was the first candidate left of the PS to score more than 10% since 1981. His momentum had actually forced Hollande to make empty promises to his left, which of course he had no intention to fulfill.
Unfortunately, Mélenchon and his allies (running under the banner of the Front de gauche [Left Front]) failed to capitalize on this good score. The electoral system is particularly unfair to non-governing parties for the législative election, so they got only a few députés (mostly communists), and the different components of the Front de gauche divided about strategy and alliances when it came to the next intermediate elections. I wasn't closely following stuff back then, but basically the Front de gauche failed to unite the political space between the far-left and the PS.
Mélenchon criticized the Front de gauche for being a “mere cartel of parties” and decided this time to change his tactic. Instead of running for a party, he “proposed” his candidature out of parties and created his own movement for his candidature. He's running on an ecosocialist, left-wing “populism” line, which aims at redefining the fundamental conflict in society as the people vs the ruling oligarchy (inspired by South American experiments and authors like Laclau and Mouffle, who theorized this “left-wing populism”).
His work on ecology is truly impressive: he's now a much more convincing ecologist than historical ecologists themselves (who have a passion for collective suicide in France, and managed to go through a scission despite already weighing next to nothing lol).
Another one of his strong points is that he's willing to confront the European Union; the Tsipras episode in Greece opened a lot of eyes in the radical left. He wants to “leave the European treaties,” which are analyzed as a coercitive framework to impose austerity and neoliberal policies which destroy workers' right and public services.
As for the man himself, hmm. Let's say I would prefer someone else because, even if he has qualities (great orator, explains things really well, decent humor/punchlines, one of the rare politicians who actually thinks), he's been a politician for decades (30+ years), which is a bit ironic when your motto is ¡Que se vayan todos!  Plus since he's a, well… passionate person, it's really easy to piss him off. He has really conflictual relations with journalists (partly on purpose, partly because of his character); sometimes with good reasons since they're often obnoxious with anything left of centre-left + Show Spoiler +if you were into Sanders you see what I'm talking about
|
Thanks
|
|
|
On February 03 2017 02:35 mahrgell wrote:
WOW...
The most recent polling in Germany after the the SPD announces Schulz as chancellor candidate+party leader is quite shocking/surprising... And that polling was done by the ARD/infratest dimap, who are usually rather reliable. (Spiegel had some earlier numbers but they lack history and I don't trust them yet)
In brackets are the changes compared to last month, which was before the Schulz announcement.
1) If the chancellor would be a direct vote:
Merkel 41 (-7)
Schulz 50 (+9)
Neither 7 (-4)
2) Which party should lead the government:
CDU 39 (-12)
SPD 50 (+14)
3) "Sonntagsfrage" (sunday question): If today was election sunday, who would you vote:
CDU 34 (-3)
SPD 28 (+8)
Left 8 (-1)
Green 8(-1)
FDP (Liberals) 6(+1)
AfD 12(-3)
Others 4(-1)
Yes I expected a big boost for the SPD with Schulz, because Gabriel was considered entirely unelectable as chancellor option. But this... is massive. The lack of motivation at the SPD was evident over all those years, but Schulz seemingly completely mobilized the party in only 2 weeks.
But well... now Schulz has to show substance too. This is the second big issue of the SPD...
But this election could get way more exciting than everyone expected.
I absolutely did not expect that. And as I said before, I am not a fan of Schulz, nor do I think his party has any remarkable ideas atm (though this also means they dont have bad ones, unlike the CDU). So I will wait and see how this story continues.
|
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3sAOSIUYAAFxHi.jpg)
“I have never been his assistant or anything like that.” (2007)
GG wp no re. Similar statements from her in 1999 and 2016. + Show Spoiler +Plus, in the same TV report: “Without my last child [born in 2001], I would have searched for a job.” (2007)
Odds are that the guy probably used his own wife to get richer without even telling her... Otherwise she would simply lie accordingly when answering in interviews.
Farewell Fillon!
|
Where is the hype for Schulz coming from?
It really feels to me like the SPD has moved too far to the right on economic issues and strayed too far away from green programmes for me to consider voting for them.
Apart from virtue signalling about flooding Germany with welfare migrants, what has Schulz actually going for him?
From his website:
"Menschen, die unerträglichen [...] Antisemitismus, die Frauenfeindlichkeit und Homophobie wieder gesellschaftsfähig machen wollten.", describing the AfD. Because the people whom his party wants to import are great about gay rights, women's rights and we know they just love Jews.
I'm from the Ruhrpott, so voting SPD was kind of a given for my parents' generation. That's just what you did.
But that's when they were pro-unions and pro-labour. That's when they cared about civil liberties.
I've always voted Rot-Grün, but I think this will be the first time I sit out an election.
Just quoting bits of his speech:
"Wir stehen für gerechte Löhne"
"Wir stehen für bezahlbare Bildung, von der KiTa bis zur Uni"
"Wir stehen für bezahlbaren Wohnraum"
If only the SPD's policies reflected that.
|
On February 03 2017 05:09 Mafe wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2017 02:35 mahrgell wrote:
WOW...
The most recent polling in Germany after the the SPD announces Schulz as chancellor candidate+party leader is quite shocking/surprising... And that polling was done by the ARD/infratest dimap, who are usually rather reliable. (Spiegel had some earlier numbers but they lack history and I don't trust them yet)
In brackets are the changes compared to last month, which was before the Schulz announcement.
1) If the chancellor would be a direct vote:
Merkel 41 (-7)
Schulz 50 (+9)
Neither 7 (-4)
2) Which party should lead the government:
CDU 39 (-12)
SPD 50 (+14)
3) "Sonntagsfrage" (sunday question): If today was election sunday, who would you vote:
CDU 34 (-3)
SPD 28 (+8)
Left 8 (-1)
Green 8(-1)
FDP (Liberals) 6(+1)
AfD 12(-3)
Others 4(-1)
Yes I expected a big boost for the SPD with Schulz, because Gabriel was considered entirely unelectable as chancellor option. But this... is massive. The lack of motivation at the SPD was evident over all those years, but Schulz seemingly completely mobilized the party in only 2 weeks.
But well... now Schulz has to show substance too. This is the second big issue of the SPD...
But this election could get way more exciting than everyone expected. I absolutely did not expect that. And as I said before, I am not a fan of Schulz, nor do I think his party has any remarkable ideas atm (though this also means they dont have bad ones, unlike the CDU). So I will wait and see how this story continues.
Well I think the lack of ideas was connected to the lack of motivation.
If you would have asked anyone, even staunch SPD voters, what the SPD stands for, you would have probably gotten no answer during the last 5-10 years. Then the fact that Merkel has been unilaterally approved across party lines, so that during past elections the SPD candidates had issues to even win the head-head-polls amongst SPD-voters...
And add to this the complete lack of leaders. If Schröder had the right ideas, if he was "good" can be debated. But he was leading. He was moving straight forward into the direction he wanted, and he made damn sure that everyone followed him (or pushed them out).
Steinmeier, who I consider really gifted as a politician and I deeply regret his "demotion" to president, sadly never showed the ability to lead. He was someone to get things done, behind closed doors. But he was never the spot light guy. Steinbrück probably never impressed anyone. And Gabriel was just the personification of the entire lack of direction the party had. One day he was here, argueing for this,next day it was something completely different. Combined with his common missteps he was never anyone people even in his own party could identify with. Not even talking about undecided voters...
And this completely paralyzed the entire party. No direction, no core ideas, no leadership.
With Schulz, they suddenly have leadership. Again, some may not like his direction, but at least he is respected to have a direction. And people believe that he could bring some life to this party. People seem to trust him to turn the SPD into an alternative to the CDU instead of just being a copy with changed colors. And from all the developments of the last years (again regardless how much reason there may be to it) it seems like people are looking for an alternative to the CDU. It is striking that the AfD lost 3% in the polls with pretty much only the SPD gaining voters! I don't think that those 3% were caused by Höckes speech in Dresden.
When suddenly AfD-voters jump to the SPD, what is it telling you? No, not all of them racist homophobes. There are plenty, but hey, over the last decades the NPD was always around 3% at federal level, those voters must have gone somewhere...But seemingly indeed many just look for an alternative. (party name pun ^.^)
But I think, now Schulz has to deliver. People seem to believe he can do it. People believe he can again assign some core ideas to the SPD. Well... we will see what it is.
But I think he can really score here against Merkel. Merkel reached her high approvals on the back of her "flexibility". But this has backfired lately. Schulz instead can just try to stand for "commitment". And this image he has earned solely on EU-issues. So he continues this there, while using the fact that he is a blank sheet on domestic policies to create himself the identity he wants there, but people will cross associate his commitment to those positions too.
And if you ask me, what he will go for:
- domestically he has to win the unions back... not sure how he will try to accomplish that specifically... there are many social reforms to target
- retirement funds system would be the biggest gun, but not sure he will dare it. This is a huge minefield and the main question is if there even is a "solution". Especially a solution that gets you elected.
- I don't think he will target unemployment benefits or similar. First of all, the voter group of unemployed is damn small nowadays, and many are probably lost to right wing parties or not voting anyway. Also it costs him a lot in the center. The focus will be on low-medium income workers. But not sure what the best doable approach there is.
- expanding top end tax brackets, maximum tax%, inheritance tax etc
- He will pray we don't get another refugee wave. Then he can go with the full social program, campaign heavily on work integration etc while painting the CDU/CSU as homophobes (I doubt they get Seehofer to shut up, and the rest will be drawn in by association) So if things somehow normalize he can probably score here among enough people for looking social. If another wave hits though... Uhk... The CSU-hardline positions will probably take voters away.
- in foreign affairs there should be no doubt about his focus on the EU. Unlike Merkel he can really sell commitment here. In fact, I believe there are a bunch of policies he could push through without losing approval, that Merkel could never do. So Merkel is kinda stuck on her "the EU is good as it is" policy, which most people for various reasons don't agree with.
- I think he will campaign heavily on changing the EU towards a stronger union, and his base would even forgive him, if he admits that this would include more financial commitments of Germany and giving away powers. He just has to sell that instead of paying off banks for Greek debt, he wants to put the money towards Greek workers so they can earn a living and get a working economy again. This is mostly a question of phrasing, but playing the "social democrat", "working class" "in a union we are all sitting in the same boat" and "passionate European" card here could work for his personality.
I'm aware that this goes against what is seemingly the latest tendencies across Europe. But I believe the main issue is, that the people are unhappy about the current union. And if they are only told "nah, everything is fine, go on" their answer is "tear down this union". But if he can sell a credible vision of a "new union"... I think enough people would be willing to try as I feel that the general idea of a European identity is appealing to many.
And sure, there will be a lot of opposition. But in an election you don't win by having the least "strongly oppose" but by having the most "strongly approve". While the SPD always lingered somewhere in no mans land due to their lack of identity. A bolder strategy is required.
- Problematic will be his answers when asked for how to deal with countries like Hungary. I guess my personal wish would be to improve the possibilities for countries to leave or get thrown out. A union of the willing is way better than this forced marriage we have right now.
|
Germany3128 Posts
On February 03 2017 02:35 mahrgell wrote:
WOW...
The most recent polling in Germany after the the SPD announces Schulz as chancellor candidate+party leader is quite shocking/surprising... And that polling was done by the ARD/infratest dimap, who are usually rather reliable. (Spiegel had some earlier numbers but they lack history and I don't trust them yet)
In brackets are the changes compared to last month, which was before the Schulz announcement.
1) If the chancellor would be a direct vote:
Merkel 41 (-7)
Schulz 50 (+9)
Neither 7 (-4)
2) Which party should lead the government:
CDU 39 (-12)
SPD 50 (+14)
3) "Sonntagsfrage" (sunday question): If today was election sunday, who would you vote:
CDU 34 (-3)
SPD 28 (+8)
Left 8 (-1)
Green 8(-1)
FDP (Liberals) 6(+1)
AfD 12(-3)
Others 4(-1)
Yes I expected a big boost for the SPD with Schulz, because Gabriel was considered entirely unelectable as chancellor option. But this... is massive. The lack of motivation at the SPD was evident over all those years, but Schulz seemingly completely mobilized the party in only 2 weeks.
But well... now Schulz has to show substance too. This is the second big issue of the SPD...
But this election could get way more exciting than everyone expected.
Could you source this? Because when I visit the Infestest dimap site I get different % on the "Sonntagsfrage"
CDU 35%
SPD 23&
Left 8%
Green 9%
FDP 6%
AFD 14%
Sonstige 5%
|
On February 03 2017 07:08 TheNewEra wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2017 02:35 mahrgell wrote:
WOW...
The most recent polling in Germany after the the SPD announces Schulz as chancellor candidate+party leader is quite shocking/surprising... And that polling was done by the ARD/infratest dimap, who are usually rather reliable. (Spiegel had some earlier numbers but they lack history and I don't trust them yet)
In brackets are the changes compared to last month, which was before the Schulz announcement.
1) If the chancellor would be a direct vote:
Merkel 41 (-7)
Schulz 50 (+9)
Neither 7 (-4)
2) Which party should lead the government:
CDU 39 (-12)
SPD 50 (+14)
3) "Sonntagsfrage" (sunday question): If today was election sunday, who would you vote:
CDU 34 (-3)
SPD 28 (+8)
Left 8 (-1)
Green 8(-1)
FDP (Liberals) 6(+1)
AfD 12(-3)
Others 4(-1)
Yes I expected a big boost for the SPD with Schulz, because Gabriel was considered entirely unelectable as chancellor option. But this... is massive. The lack of motivation at the SPD was evident over all those years, but Schulz seemingly completely mobilized the party in only 2 weeks.
But well... now Schulz has to show substance too. This is the second big issue of the SPD...
But this election could get way more exciting than everyone expected. Could you source this? Because when I visit the Infestest dimap site I get different % on the "Sonntagsfrage" CDU 35% SPD 23& Left 8% Green 9% FDP 6% AFD 14% Sonstige 5%
http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/index.html
Btw, another gem from this:
Trustworty partner of Germany - approval. For Russia and the US
![[image loading]](http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/grafik-335~_v-videowebl.jpg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
