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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 447

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
April 04 2016 01:44 GMT
#8921
It does make huge difference to whether someone illegally broke a sanction for example. Also, tax evasion is played down a lot, but it is literally killing people.
And politicians like Poroshenko, who ran specifically as the anti-oligarch candidate, will have a lot of explaining to do...
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
April 04 2016 01:46 GMT
#8922
Appears to be a scandal involving the usual suspects. In other news, Hugh Hefner sleeps with a hot, young, woman less than half his age.
Freeeeeeedom
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 04 2016 01:57 GMT
#8923
On April 04 2016 10:44 lord_nibbler wrote:
And politicians like Poroshenko, who ran specifically as the anti-oligarch candidate, will have a lot of explaining to do...

Given that this is Ukraine and not Europe, you underestimate how much of a non-story that form of corruption is.

Rumors in Russian news (dated about 1 year ago) say that he quadrupled his net worth during his tenure as president.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-04 02:52:26
April 04 2016 02:50 GMT
#8924
Somehow it's staggering to see people say "same old, same old".

It's really not hard to understand why this is rather explosive, as opposed to "usual suspects".

It's literally terabytes of data. And a lot of heads could roll after this, which is why it's different to "the usual, rich avoiding stuff lol". Because it's actual evidence, rather than "lol everybudy nows that rich cheatrs". See Messi in this case (not that he'd need that, considering he's already on trial for tax evasion....). It's incriminating evidence.

Given that this is Ukraine and not Europe, you underestimate how much of a non-story that form of corruption is.


Eyes on Iceland then, where this seems much less of a non-story.
On track to MA1950A.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 04 2016 03:06 GMT
#8925
In the sense of knowing that these people actually do have offshore assets, this is a non-story. In the sense that there's something concrete that can be pinned on them to punish them for doing it, it's far from irrelevant.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
LennX
Profile Joined October 2010
4556 Posts
April 04 2016 03:58 GMT
#8926
I've a feeling this Panama leaks is huge enough to warrant its own thread. Depending on what other info is leaked in the next few days and assuming enough info gets down to each country population. some leaders may fall(maybe a token Icelandic PM?). While for the others, it will be business as usual.
Mute user function on TL; http://www.liquiddota.com/blogs/491245-mute-annoying-users-in-lr-threads
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5282 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-04 05:19:27
April 04 2016 05:18 GMT
#8927
but then there's this dude https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/04/corporate-media-gatekeepers-protect-western-1-from-panama-leak/
... Unfortunately the leaker has made the dreadful mistake of turning to the western corporate media to publicise the results. In consequence the first major story, published today by the Guardian, is all about Vladimir Putin and a cellist on the fiddle. As it happens I believe the story and have no doubt Putin is bent.

But why focus on Russia? Russian wealth is only a tiny minority of the money hidden away with the aid of Mossack Fonseca. In fact, it soon becomes obvious that the selective reporting is going to stink.

The Suddeutsche Zeitung, which received the leak, gives a detailed explanation of the methodology the corporate media used to search the files. The main search they have done is for names associated with breaking UN sanctions regimes. The Guardian reports this too and helpfully lists those countries as Zimbabwe, North Korea, Russia and Syria. The filtering of this Mossack Fonseca information by the corporate media follows a direct western governmental agenda. There is no mention at all of use of Mossack Fonseca by massive western corporations or western billionaires – the main customers. And the Guardian is quick to reassure that “much of the leaked material will remain private.”

What do you expect? The leak is being managed by the grandly but laughably named “International Consortium of Investigative Journalists”, which is funded and organised entirely by the USA’s Center for Public Integrity. Their funders include

Ford Foundation
Carnegie Endowment
Rockefeller Family Fund
W K Kellogg Foundation
Open Society Foundation (Soros)

among many others. Do not expect a genuine expose of western capitalism. The dirty secrets of western corporations will remain unpublished.

Expect hits at Russia, Iran and Syria and some tiny “balancing” western country like Iceland. A superannuated UK peer or two will be sacrificed – someone already with dementia.

The corporate media – the Guardian and BBC in the UK – have exclusive access to the database which you and I cannot see. They are protecting themselves from even seeing western corporations’ sensitive information by only looking at those documents which are brought up by specific searches such as UN sanctions busters. Never forget the Guardian smashed its copies of the Snowden files on the instruction of MI6.
and in a comment:
April 4, 2016 at 01:07
Wikileaks is tweeting a poll, asking whether folk want them to release all 11 million documents.(i don't know what that's about)
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6238 Posts
April 04 2016 07:16 GMT
#8928
On April 04 2016 06:31 lord_nibbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2016 05:50 RvB wrote:
On April 04 2016 05:32 LegalLord wrote:
Any rejection by Dutch voters or by the government would give Russian President Vladimir Putin, who opposes deeper EU-Ukraine ties and who many Dutch blame for the downing by pro-Russian rebels of a plane travelling from Amsterdam, a victory in his war of words with the West.

An EU decision to push on with the treaty despite a "no vote", whether the government respects it or not, could be damaging for the EU and highlight EU problems ahead of the British vote.

I like how they frame this as a no-win scenario. "Vote no = the evil guy wins, vote yes = the EU loses."

Personally I don't think the EU would benefit from propping up Ukraine. It's a bigger, more populous black hole than Greece and any money that has been sent to Ukraine never reaches the citizens but rather falls into the pockets of the politically privileged. It feels like the EU leaders severely underestimate just how corrupt Ukraine is.

The agreement is about trade. The EU is not really propping up anything with this.

That is simply not true!

There are provisions about armament and defense partnerships in this 'agreement'. Why the f**k do you think Putin went on a war path, when this got signed?

There's a little bit about convergence on defense yes. Legallord is actually right since there is some financial help in it for Ukraine as well but hardly a significant amount. Most of it is about free trade and economic, judicial and financial reform though.
The reason Putin doesn't like it is because it increases cooperation between the EU and Ukraine. He would've gone on a war path regardless if it was purely economical or not. His secundary aim (or maybe even main aim) is to fire up nationalism in Russia to increase his popularity.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-04 08:13:34
April 04 2016 08:07 GMT
#8929
On April 04 2016 14:18 xM(Z wrote:
but then there's this dude https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/04/corporate-media-gatekeepers-protect-western-1-from-panama-leak/
Show nested quote +
... Unfortunately the leaker has made the dreadful mistake of turning to the western corporate media to publicise the results. In consequence the first major story, published today by the Guardian, is all about Vladimir Putin and a cellist on the fiddle. As it happens I believe the story and have no doubt Putin is bent.

But why focus on Russia? Russian wealth is only a tiny minority of the money hidden away with the aid of Mossack Fonseca. In fact, it soon becomes obvious that the selective reporting is going to stink.

The Suddeutsche Zeitung, which received the leak, gives a detailed explanation of the methodology the corporate media used to search the files. The main search they have done is for names associated with breaking UN sanctions regimes. The Guardian reports this too and helpfully lists those countries as Zimbabwe, North Korea, Russia and Syria. The filtering of this Mossack Fonseca information by the corporate media follows a direct western governmental agenda. There is no mention at all of use of Mossack Fonseca by massive western corporations or western billionaires – the main customers. And the Guardian is quick to reassure that “much of the leaked material will remain private.”

What do you expect? The leak is being managed by the grandly but laughably named “International Consortium of Investigative Journalists”, which is funded and organised entirely by the USA’s Center for Public Integrity. Their funders include

Ford Foundation
Carnegie Endowment
Rockefeller Family Fund
W K Kellogg Foundation
Open Society Foundation (Soros)

among many others. Do not expect a genuine expose of western capitalism. The dirty secrets of western corporations will remain unpublished.

Expect hits at Russia, Iran and Syria and some tiny “balancing” western country like Iceland. A superannuated UK peer or two will be sacrificed – someone already with dementia.

The corporate media – the Guardian and BBC in the UK – have exclusive access to the database which you and I cannot see. They are protecting themselves from even seeing western corporations’ sensitive information by only looking at those documents which are brought up by specific searches such as UN sanctions busters. Never forget the Guardian smashed its copies of the Snowden files on the instruction of MI6.
and in a comment:
April 4, 2016 at 01:07
Wikileaks is tweeting a poll, asking whether folk want them to release all 11 million documents.(i don't know what that's about)


That's disregarding the fact that in the past they didn't act like he's describing.

See Luxemburg Leaks, where certainly companies like Apple, Google etc were targeted. It's also rather tinfoily to assume that 60+ countries will duck under the "pressure" of an american car company etc.

Apart from the obvious fact that sueddeutsche already announced that they'll release a "list" for the US as well.
edit: in fact, that was said in response to that blog. And it actually sounds "threatening", too.
On track to MA1950A.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
April 04 2016 13:03 GMT
#8930
the best outcome would be impetus to develop a transparency focused accounting structure for the west at least. dictators and corrupt leaders still want to enjoy western human services and education for their offsprings.

the tory mp stuff is entirely unsurprising. uk is pretty fucking corrupt and extremely dirty finance dependent. it's really the biggest obstacle towards reform in the west on these issues.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
plated.rawr
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Norway1676 Posts
April 04 2016 14:44 GMT
#8931
On April 04 2016 07:10 kongoline wrote:
"The Editor in Chief of Süddeutsche Zeitung responded to the lack of United States individuals in the documents, saying to "Just wait for what is coming next".



things about to get wild

Anyone taking bets on Trump being on the list?
Savior broke my heart ;_; || twitch.tv/onnings
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5282 Posts
April 04 2016 15:18 GMT
#8932
2 weeks self-ban, betting on a Clinton.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
plated.rawr
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Norway1676 Posts
April 04 2016 15:32 GMT
#8933
On April 05 2016 00:18 xM(Z wrote:
2 weeks self-ban, betting on a Clinton.

Im assuming as much as well, and I'll take that bet. If we're both correct, we're both banned. Sound good? :D
Savior broke my heart ;_; || twitch.tv/onnings
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 04 2016 17:34 GMT
#8934
On April 04 2016 16:16 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2016 06:31 lord_nibbler wrote:
On April 04 2016 05:50 RvB wrote:
On April 04 2016 05:32 LegalLord wrote:
Any rejection by Dutch voters or by the government would give Russian President Vladimir Putin, who opposes deeper EU-Ukraine ties and who many Dutch blame for the downing by pro-Russian rebels of a plane travelling from Amsterdam, a victory in his war of words with the West.

An EU decision to push on with the treaty despite a "no vote", whether the government respects it or not, could be damaging for the EU and highlight EU problems ahead of the British vote.

I like how they frame this as a no-win scenario. "Vote no = the evil guy wins, vote yes = the EU loses."

Personally I don't think the EU would benefit from propping up Ukraine. It's a bigger, more populous black hole than Greece and any money that has been sent to Ukraine never reaches the citizens but rather falls into the pockets of the politically privileged. It feels like the EU leaders severely underestimate just how corrupt Ukraine is.

The agreement is about trade. The EU is not really propping up anything with this.

That is simply not true!

There are provisions about armament and defense partnerships in this 'agreement'. Why the f**k do you think Putin went on a war path, when this got signed?

There's a little bit about convergence on defense yes. Legallord is actually right since there is some financial help in it for Ukraine as well but hardly a significant amount. Most of it is about free trade and economic, judicial and financial reform though.
The reason Putin doesn't like it is because it increases cooperation between the EU and Ukraine. He would've gone on a war path regardless if it was purely economical or not. His secundary aim (or maybe even main aim) is to fire up nationalism in Russia to increase his popularity.

It always starts with just a small contribution that is conditional on fulfilling various "reforms" that mostly just make the debtor more palatable to the creditors, that restructure the economy to make more of it involved in repaying debt with interest. Then it will turn out that by losing favorable trade with Russia, Ukraine will have some severe economic losses and will have to have an influx of cash to keep up. That will require more money from the EU, most of which will quickly find itself in the pocket of the Ukrainian oligarchs. Given that the EU has been willing to throw bad loans at bad debtors in the past (Greece), I think that you'll find that Ukraine will quickly find itself as another client state of the bank, only much bigger and more populous than the other insolvent countries. It starts with a trade agreement that changes the alliances of the nation (until the next time Ukraine changes its mind and has another revolution) and it will eventually devolve into economic dependency.

Ukraine doesn't have anything that the EU would want, except for the pipeline from Russia. In the east, the industry is much less efficient and far more outdated than what Russia and especially the EU has, so there is little to buy there. The west is even worse - with the exception of Kiev, it is mostly farmland. So the EU can buy stuff they don't want, while Ukraine can buy EU products that they can't afford. If the past is any indication, exports to Ukraine would be funded through loans, which are not going to be repaid.

The fact that the only interest the West has in Ukraine is to damage Russia's alliances is why Putin is willing to react so strongly to it. Ukraine has no real benefit to the West beyond that and most people simply don't understand how much of an economic black hole it is, even relative to the Baltics and Poland. Also, the Russian people aren't really too fond of war - for a short time, Putin's approval rating (as PM at the time) went as low as 20% because of the Georgian war. The difference here is that he regained Crimea (which, realistically, was going to go to Russia sooner or later but probably through negotiation rather than force). A lot of Russians don't particularly care for NATO expansion and are willing to fight against it, but aren't fond of war in general.

Ukraine isn't worth paying for. It is one of the most corrupt nations on the European continent, with a ton of political instability, and not much to offer in return. From a purely European perspective I wouldn't recommend further supporting it unless the EU wants to foot the bill for the US's political power plays.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Narw
Profile Joined February 2011
Poland884 Posts
April 04 2016 18:23 GMT
#8935
Try to rewrite this text without huge ammount of bullshit you put in it, then i will respond, ok?



User was warned for this post
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 04 2016 18:29 GMT
#8936
On April 05 2016 03:23 Narw wrote:
Try to rewrite this text without huge ammount of bullshit you put in it, then i will respond, ok?


Try having more content in your posts, then maybe I will take you seriously, ok?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
April 04 2016 19:07 GMT
#8937
Ukraine does have some assets:
- still untapped gas fields in the east
- pipeline infrastructure (alternatives are currently build, but replacement would still be decades away)
- one of the best agricultural soil on earth with the potential to supply half of Europe on its own
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-04 19:34:26
April 04 2016 19:29 GMT
#8938
On April 05 2016 04:07 lord_nibbler wrote:
Ukraine does have some assets:
- still untapped gas fields in the east
- pipeline infrastructure (alternatives are currently build, but replacement would still be decades away)
- one of the best agricultural soil on earth with the potential to supply half of Europe on its own

Gas it does have, which as I said is its big asset. It also has a supply of coal and metal in the east. Its infrastructure is pretty bad by most standards though, and the east is the more economically powerful side.

Europe doesn't have a shortage of food suppliers. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Ukraine is a big country (biggest one in Europe in fact), and it does undeniably have some valuable assets. Whether or not it has anything to offer Europe (other than to sell off its natural resources and pipeline) is another matter.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Dapper_Cad
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United Kingdom964 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-05 00:11:57
April 05 2016 00:09 GMT
#8939
On April 04 2016 03:11 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2016 03:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Six members of the House of Lords, three former Conservative MPs and dozens of donors to UK political parties have had offshore assets.


Among national leaders with offshore wealth are Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister; Ayad Allawi, ex-interim prime minister and former vice-president of Iraq; Petro Poroshenko, president of Ukraine; Alaa Mubarak, son of Egypt’s former president; and the prime minister of Iceland, Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson.


Twelve national leaders are among 143 politicians, their families and close associates from around the world known to have been using offshore tax havens.


A key member of Fifa’s powerful ethics committee, which is supposed to be spearheading reform at world football’s scandal-hit governing body, acted as a lawyer for individuals and companies recently charged with bribery and corruption.


Source

Aside from the last bit, how is this news?



On April 04 2016 10:15 Acrofales wrote:
This whole Panama papers thing is news because of the leak. Not because rich people used offshore accounts. It'll take a lot of very boring studying those 11.5million documents to figure out whether there is anything illegal, or even ethically dubious there at all.


On April 04 2016 10:46 cLutZ wrote:
Appears to be a scandal involving the usual suspects. In other news, Hugh Hefner sleeps with a hot, young, woman less than half his age.


The #panamapapers is definitely not news, it's boring and complicated and we knew all about it already. We should all start talking about something else as soon as possible and if you don't then the onus is definitely on you to describe why it's worth discussing over and over again rather than talking about the contents of the leak itself.

On April 04 2016 22:03 oneofthem wrote:
the best outcome would be impetus to develop a transparency focused accounting structure for the west at least. dictators and corrupt leaders still want to enjoy western human services and education for their offsprings.

the tory mp stuff is entirely unsurprising. uk is pretty fucking corrupt and extremely dirty finance dependent. it's really the biggest obstacle towards reform in the west on these issues.


Absolutely, any action that you could take against secrecy jurisdictions such as the Caymans would be an assault on their sovereign right to hide trillions in cash from the billions of people it's been stolen from. In addition any attempt to do anything to have multi national operations in non-western countries made public would be an assault on children.

On April 04 2016 17:07 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 04 2016 14:18 xM(Z wrote:
but then there's this dude https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/04/corporate-media-gatekeepers-protect-western-1-from-panama-leak/
... Unfortunately the leaker has made the dreadful mistake of turning to the western corporate media to publicise the results. In consequence the first major story, published today by the Guardian, is all about Vladimir Putin and a cellist on the fiddle. As it happens I believe the story and have no doubt Putin is bent.

But why focus on Russia? Russian wealth is only a tiny minority of the money hidden away with the aid of Mossack Fonseca. In fact, it soon becomes obvious that the selective reporting is going to stink.

The Suddeutsche Zeitung, which received the leak, gives a detailed explanation of the methodology the corporate media used to search the files. The main search they have done is for names associated with breaking UN sanctions regimes. The Guardian reports this too and helpfully lists those countries as Zimbabwe, North Korea, Russia and Syria. The filtering of this Mossack Fonseca information by the corporate media follows a direct western governmental agenda. There is no mention at all of use of Mossack Fonseca by massive western corporations or western billionaires – the main customers. And the Guardian is quick to reassure that “much of the leaked material will remain private.”

What do you expect? The leak is being managed by the grandly but laughably named “International Consortium of Investigative Journalists”, which is funded and organised entirely by the USA’s Center for Public Integrity. Their funders include

Ford Foundation
Carnegie Endowment
Rockefeller Family Fund
W K Kellogg Foundation
Open Society Foundation (Soros)

among many others. Do not expect a genuine expose of western capitalism. The dirty secrets of western corporations will remain unpublished.

Expect hits at Russia, Iran and Syria and some tiny “balancing” western country like Iceland. A superannuated UK peer or two will be sacrificed – someone already with dementia.

The corporate media – the Guardian and BBC in the UK – have exclusive access to the database which you and I cannot see. They are protecting themselves from even seeing western corporations’ sensitive information by only looking at those documents which are brought up by specific searches such as UN sanctions busters. Never forget the Guardian smashed its copies of the Snowden files on the instruction of MI6.
and in a comment:
April 4, 2016 at 01:07
Wikileaks is tweeting a poll, asking whether folk want them to release all 11 million documents.(i don't know what that's about)


That's disregarding the fact that in the past they didn't act like he's describing.

See Luxemburg Leaks, where certainly companies like Apple, Google etc were targeted. It's also rather tinfoily to assume that 60+ countries will duck under the "pressure" of an american car company etc.

Apart from the obvious fact that sueddeutsche already announced that they'll release a "list" for the US as well.
edit: in fact, that was said in response to that blog. And it actually sounds "threatening", too.


Couldn't agree more. Implying that it's possible that corporate media would buckle under pressure of the people that pay them, or the governments of the countries where they publish, is the same as wearing a tin foil hat to stop the CIA reading your mind. Quite, quite insane.

Honestly, I don't know what all the fuss is about. The sooner people realise that this extensive network of black money which the panama papers expose is from a single law firm in a single secrecy jurisdiction that's been operating for 40 years with impunity the sooner everyone will understand that this is barely a problem, in fact it's barely even "ethically dubious".

Once the lowing herd finally take the time to think about this it will be obvious even to them that what we have here is nothing but a fringe operation of no importance -one bad apple in a good old box of shiny free trade golden delicious- that has nothing to do with the essential functioning of the world economy as a whole.

I mean, the way people are going on, it's like there could be some sort of link between this stuff and the explosion in sovereign debt and inequality over the past 30 years when we should all know that those things happened because a social safety net is pie in the sky madness and the rich are just better than you.

But he is never making short-term prediction, everyone of his prediction are based on fundenmentals, but he doesn't exactly know when it will happen... So using these kind of narrowed "who-is-right" empirical analysis makes little sense.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 05 2016 16:00 GMT
#8940
Iceland Prime Minster has stepped down. - France 24
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
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