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On August 21 2015 23:45 LegalLord wrote:
Elected not to follow the EU's debt terms, made a farce referendum confirming that position, then went back on that position and formed an alliance with the opposing party while strongly isolating his own, and then resigns because of the party fracture he created. Kind of hard to take Tsipras seriously after all that. Even I'm not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here, because they're proving that they would rather play political games than make decisions that are in the nation's best interests.
Unless you're Greek, your opinion on that doesn't really matter at the moment. Within Greece it seems like Tsipras is still fairly popular, and is seen as trying to make the best of a bad situation. I completely agree with you, by the way, but not being Greek, I don't have a say in the upcoming elections.
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If you are Greek, your opinion doesn't really matter at the moment.
Why would a Greek person even try to inform themselves, make a decision, and vote? It doesn't matter who is in charge in Athens. The same policies will be carried out regardless.
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On August 21 2015 23:47 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 23:45 LegalLord wrote:
Elected not to follow the EU's debt terms, made a farce referendum confirming that position, then went back on that position and formed an alliance with the opposing party while strongly isolating his own, and then resigns because of the party fracture he created. Kind of hard to take Tsipras seriously after all that. Even I'm not willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here, because they're proving that they would rather play political games than make decisions that are in the nation's best interests. Unless you're Greek, your opinion on that doesn't really matter at the moment. Within Greece it seems like Tsipras is still fairly popular, and is seen as trying to make the best of a bad situation. I completely agree with you, by the way, but not being Greek, I don't have a say in the upcoming elections.
Well it's not only a matter of who the Greeks will choose, but also who the EU will agree to work with. And if the Greeks would rather vote in someone who will sabotage their country in the long run, then they are the ones who will live with the consequences. In small, dependent nations, the approval of the powers that be is more important than who the people elect, because it is definitely within their power to force a reelection, one way or another, until they get who they want and/or can work with.
Hopefully the EU has prepared for a Grexit better than Greece has.
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No one should be too surprised that Tsipras has resigned, he's been hinting at it ever since it became clear that his referendum extortion didn't soften the credit conditions (he said something along the lines that he wasn't married to his post or something).
Now, what I find really surprising is that he is still popular in Greece with approval ratings in the high sixties. That really baffles me. On the one hand, if you thought that the referendum wasn't just a poker tactic and political stunt, but actually believed in the democratic merits of it, you should feel deeply betrayed by him for giving in, making false promises and actually getting a worse deal out of it. On the other hand, if you thought that the referendum was just a political stunt to either put the blame on others or to gamble Greece's fate on a poker chip, your opinion of Tsipras probably won't be too high either. So, I can't make any sense of his continued support.
What will happen now? No clue, my predictions in this crisis have failed me every single time, I find it highly irrational from all sides. What I would find highly amusing would be if a new government is elected on the promise of renegotiating for a better deal. It seems the left wing of Syriza split up and is about to form a new party, maybe they will run on such a promise, lol.
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On August 22 2015 00:01 ACrow wrote:
No one should be too surprised that Tsipras resigned, he's been hinting at it ever since it became clear that his referendum extortion didn't soften the credit conditions (he said something along the lines that he wasn't married to his post or something).
Now, what I find really surprising is that he is still popular in Greece with approval ratings in the high sixties. That really baffles me. On the one hand, if you thought that the referendum wasn't just a poker tactic and political stunt, but actually believed in the democratic merits of it, you should feel deeply betrayed by him for giving in, making false promises and actually getting a worse deal out of it. On the other hand, if you thought that the referendum was just a political stunt to either put the blame on others or to gamble Greece's fate on a poker chip, your opinion of Tsipras probably won't be too high either. So, I can't make any sense of his continued support.
How is it going forward? No clue, my predictions in this crisis have failed me every single time, I find it highly irrational from all sides. What I would find highly amusing would be if a new government is elected on the promise of renegotiating for a better deal. It seems the left wing of Syriza split up and is about to form a new party, maybe they will run on such a promise, lol.
Honestly, if the next coalition wants to tear up the deal and renegotiate, I think the Troika will simply walk away from the table, and close the money tap again. There's a take it or leave it deal from their point of view (whether that deal is good or not is currently beside the point: I personally think it's bad, but it's the deal that was negotiated), and I don't think anybody in Europe can stomach more political games right now. So either take the deal, or Grexit.
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If Greece had prepared properly for a Grexit, perhaps by printing drachmas or at least preparing the means to do so, perhaps they would have more room to negotiate here. As it stands, the Greeks pretty much have to take what they are given.
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On August 21 2015 19:13 Alcathous wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2015 18:24 m4ini wrote:
Not to forget that new elections certainly will help to get the investors on board that he so desperartely wanted. I bet there are already queues forming, because another polit-stunt is exactly what they were waiting for.
I'm actually really sorry now for the greeks, because while the previous government did undeniably do mistakes, this one fucked you majorly. And they're not even stopping. There will be no investments in Greece as long as Greece is a zombie nation. And it will be until Merkel is replaced and debt restructuring has taken place. I don't think it was a mistake to not carry out Varoufakis plan. It was just so risky. Greece was in no position to fire back in an economic war. They underestimated how reckless Merkel would be willing to be. So I understand very much Tsipras decision to accept the deal, buy time. When Merkel is gone, they can again try to restructure. That it will then be more expensive to the German taxpayer, and more importantly the taxpayers of countries that are actually poorer than Greece, well that's not really something Tsipras can worry about.
Because CLEARLY it's Merkels fault that Greece stands where it does. It's not like pretty much most of the northern countries are "against greece", pretty severly actually. It's Merkel. And of course, when she resigns at some point, they can try again to restructure. Conveniently you left out how exactly that would work, because obviously, if Greece breaks these contracts now too, well.. How much you want to bet that no-one will even start to negotiate with greece? The next stunt similar to this will have a grexit as a result, there's no two ways. Literally.
Do you actually think people will play this game again?
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No. It is Merkel's problem the Eurozone has been in the same problem for 7 years. She has been the only one in charge all that time. She was elected as chancellor in 2005. All this happened on her watch.
Restructuring will have to happen eventually anyway, even if Merkel is chancellor for life.
How that will happen? Just like any other deal made. Or are you asking me to predict the fine print?
Difference is that the taxpayers of Slovenia and similar countries will lose a lot more money. Maybe the Germans will compensate them for that as well?
Either way, it was the Eurozone that decided to play this extreme hardball and put the future of the European Union on the table. If they are really surprised if a new Greek government wants a new deal, they are delusional.
Sure, they will shoot a few more billion out of the Greek economy, but what does that achieve. Exactly that economy is going to have to pay back all that debt.
Politicians, you can bully, but the only way to take the Greek voter out of the picture is to suspend the constitution.
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On August 21 2015 23:52 Alcathous wrote:
If you are Greek, your opinion doesn't really matter at the moment.
Why would a Greek person even try to inform themselves, make a decision, and vote? It doesn't matter who is in charge in Athens. The same policies will be carried out regardless.
Just vote for the party that has a plan to leave the Eurozone.
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Elections will be complete chaos,tons of small and extreme parties. Making new government will take months,let alone a stable and strong government that would work with troika and implement the deal.
This maybe reason why financial markets in Europe more or less did crash for past 3 days.
Think troika has no choice but to consider the agreement void and go back to the previous situation when the current government has stepped down,but that is a very tough decision to make.
Then wait for a new government to be installed that accepts the deal and agrees to implement it. This unless there will be 2 parties in favour of the deal that can make a government in a short amount of time and continue with implementing the agreement, but that seems unlikely.
@below:i think its Greece and that it will end badly.
China started to drop 1 month ago already, Europe only started 1 week ago.
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On August 22 2015 01:15 Rassy wrote:
Elections will be complete chaos,tons of small and extreme parties. Making new government will take months,let alone a stable and strong government that would work with troika and implement the deal.
This maybe reason why financial markets in Europe more or less did crash for past 3 days.
Think troika has no choice but to consider the agreement void and go back to the previous situation when the current government has stepped down,but that is a very tough decision to make.
Then wait for a new government to be installed that accepts the deal and agrees to implement it. This unless there will be 2 parties in favour of the deal that can make a government in a short amount of time and continue with implementing the agreement, but that seems unlikely.
You realize that the financial markets in the entire world went downhill the last couple of days. And that this has nothing to do with Greece, but with China, which is a much bigger concern, than little Greece.
Tspiras move was expected for a couple of weeks now. In fact, most analysts (and Tsipras himself) consider it a signal of strength, instead of weakness for him to resign here. He isn't resigning to run away. He is resigning to win much bigger. Yes, he pretty much threw away everything he was elected for, but if the Greek like him for that, and allow him to get a much stronger government... Hell... why would he not take that offer and finally get rid of those idealists, sticking to their original course.
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New elections,how is that a sign of strength?
A sign of strength would have been holding the pack together and implementing the agreement.
If he will win the election and can form a government with 1 other party then yes,but I don't see that happening.
There where riots on the streets of Athens after he accepted the agreement,tbh I think he will quit politics completely.
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If he gets reelected and can form a government based on following the current deal it would be a strong position.
The issue is that this once again places the faith of Greece in its people. The people who voted No in a democratic farce (not saying the referendum itself was undemocratic, but the question asked in the referendum was bullshit and pointless).
If Greece votes in favor of the deal, fine. No real harm done but the fear is for if they don't. What if another comes along promising to stand up against the bullies of the EU. Then all the work of the last months and more is thrown out.
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On August 22 2015 03:36 Gorsameth wrote:
If he gets reelected and can form a government based on following the current deal it would be a strong position.
The issue is that this once again places the faith of Greece in its people. The people who voted No in a democratic farce (not saying the referendum itself was undemocratic, but the question asked in the referendum was bullshit and pointless).
If Greece votes in favor of the deal, fine. No real harm done but the fear is for if they don't. What if another comes along promising to stand up against the bullies of the EU. Then all the work of the last months and more is thrown out.
Have faith in the democratic process, you oppressive technocrat! 
But in all seriousness, now that Alcathous has been banned, someone has to stand up and say that the current Greek election is still a farce. It's basically a choice between "kowtow to Europe" and ruination, because I seriously doubt that any of the political parties who might run on a campaign of renegotiating the deal, or a straight up Grexit, have the know-how to navigate a Grexit without disaster. It's Syriza cast-outs (some would say, the original ideologs who got Syriza elected in the first place) groups or Golden Dawn. The only guy who could credibly lead a Grexit is Varoufakis and he has been ridiculed and slandered in such a way that he is probably unelectable (even if he were to run, which I doubt).
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Is there really still a problem with outright default without Grexit and without capital controls? The capital controls, which are basically in effect because of a possible Grexit are the primary harm right now. No one seems to be capable of explaining why unilateral default is not an option without the terrible Grexit addendum.
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On August 22 2015 03:27 Rassy wrote:
New elections,how is that a sign of strength?
A sign of strength would have been holding the pack together and implementing the agreement.
If he will win the election and can form a government with 1 other party then yes,but I don't see that happening.
There where riots on the streets of Athens after he accepted the agreement,tbh I think he will quit politics completely.
Right now it looks like he will get a much stronger and more loyal government out of new elections. Currently almost half his own party is voting against him, he is in a coalition with some right wing crazies, and had to use opposition votes to get through with his new program.
With reelections, he can simply clean up his own party, make sure, that all candidates/MPs of his own party will vote for his stuff. Even though it is hard to understand, somehow the Greek want to vote for him right now. He may actually even get to rule without any coalition partner. And even if he needs some partner, it may cause some trouble, but he will end in a much better position then now.
The move is opportunistic... but certainly not weak. If he waits with it for another half year, negative backslashes from the new social system cuts may drop his reputation rapidly, ruining his chances in any reelection, By going through elections now he can stabilize his government, and get in the votes for his program before people feel the negative consequences.
So not sure how timing an election to the point, where you are the highest in polls, can be considered a sign of weakness.
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On August 22 2015 05:17 cLutZ wrote:
Is there really still a problem with outright default without Grexit and without capital controls? The capital controls, which are basically in effect because of a possible Grexit are the primary harm right now. No one seems to be capable of explaining why unilateral default is not an option without the terrible Grexit addendum.
Why would the rest of the euro zone keep up the ELA and Target2 system for Greece if they unilaterally told the rest of the Euro Zone "thanks for the many hundred billions, but fu"? Without these two mechanisms alone they couldn't realistically keep the euro and I'm sure there are many more repercussions to going unilateral berserk mode. By joining the €-Zone, a country gives up monetary sovereignty, at least partially.
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Three people have been hurt after a heavily armed man opened fire on a train in northern France, before being overpowered by two American passengers.
The incident happened on the high-speed Thalys service near Arras, and the attacker was arrested at Arras station.
The interior minister praised the Americans, one of whom was seriously injured, as was another passenger.
The man arrested was a 26-year-old Moroccan. Anti-terrorist officers have taken over the case.
Source
You're welcome Europe.
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Yes, but they don't need monetary sovereignty if the run a balanced budget. The ELA and target 2 systems should stay if Eurozone operators are confident Greek wont impose capital controls and/or seize Euros from Greek banks.
The problem with all the systems is that the Greek government can't be trusted to not do those things, or anything, so its all a problem.
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On August 22 2015 05:17 cLutZ wrote:
Is there really still a problem with outright default without Grexit and without capital controls? The capital controls, which are basically in effect because of a possible Grexit are the primary harm right now. No one seems to be capable of explaining why unilateral default is not an option without the terrible Grexit addendum.
There are two kinds of default possible, a negotiated orderly default, and a unilateral disorderly default. Greece has unsuccessfully tried to negotiate an orderly default. A unilateral default on the other hand is widely believed to be a precursor to an unavoidable Grexit. In other words, it's impossible to have a unilateral default without leading to Grexit.
On August 22 2015 00:09 LegalLord wrote:
If Greece had prepared properly for a Grexit, perhaps by printing drachmas or at least preparing the means to do so, perhaps they would have more room to negotiate here. As it stands, the Greeks pretty much have to take what they are given.
You may not have heard the revelations of Varoufakis recently. In short: yes, they were in fact (secretly) prepared for Grexit, but Tsipras balked. And now they must drink the medicine that Merkel administers.
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EPT
