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On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though)
So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? With the arm maybe ?
On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens.
I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. It's their inability to adjust their competitivity with their "partner" of the eurozone. They have a currency that is too high for them, and are unable to adjust its exchange rate so it's dragging their economy down.
Meanwhile, they are forced to reduce their public investment, which mean contraction of demand that in turn drag their economy even more, and to add to that they must pay the interests of a debt. Austerity is a solution for none of those problems.
They can't pay their debts without growth and they can't get grow without some kind of control over their currency to adjust their competitivity through devaluation.
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On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now.
They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms.
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On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms.
Detroit not enough freedom. Greece true American.
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On July 13 2015 20:51 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2015 07:45 Hryul wrote:
you can throw around numbers all the way you want, but it doesnt change the fact that they are simply unbelievable. again: with these numbers every worker in greece must work at least 8 hrs/day every day that isn't sat/sun and never go on vacation. I am kind of late to the latest round of the lazy Greeks debate, but let me throw in my share of anecdotal evidence. Background: I have worked in Greece for much of last year at a large retail and business supply company. Greeks do work long hours, in fact they do work the longest hours I have experienced in any assignment ever. The standard contract at the company I was working at was 50 hours / week. Many worked more than that. Most people are in the office by 9am, and nobody leaves before 7pm. Many work past 8pm or 9pm. Greek projects are somewhat notorious among my colleagues, since yes, you get to enjoy all the great food, but really you don't have any time to even enjoy some sunlight as even in summer it's getting dark by the time you leave the office. In addition, the Greeks there don't even take any breaks. Most people don't even take a lunch break, and if they do, it's a matter of 15 minutes. Most sit at their computer for literally 10-12 hours without looking up. Someone posted earlier about shops being closed all the time. I can't speak for the daytime, but at least at night most shops were open until 10pm or later. With the long hours at the office anything else wouldn't really make sense. Stories of Greeks taking it easy in the big vacation areas with guaranteed business from tourists aren't worth much. Visit the actual Greece outside the tourism business and you will get a different picture.
I would expect the typical Greek workers in private companies to work harder than their counterparts in other European countries, since there are so few jobs available in the private sector. And of course hard work and money are loosely correlated at best in our world.
The deficiencies of the Greek political and economic system lead to this catastrophe, not lazy workers. And they make it difficult to find a solution. I would be all for debt cuts and a new "Marshall plan" for Greece, if it could work and make Greece a stable and self-sufficient country.
But the reality is Greece had a decade of cheap loans and several decades of major subsidies out of the EU budget (amounting to several billion Euro per year), and all it did was make the country non-competitive and dependent on more and more loans.
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On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms.
You have a static vision of economy. What they pay in pansion is used in the economy, and go back to the government through taxation. Reducing pansion will only lead to reduced GDP, it's mathematical.
Plus, don't make it seem like Greek are rich, they have pansion but a big part (1/3 ?) of the people that get those pansions are in a state of poverty. They have no unemployment benefit so the pansion is usually used to support the entire familly. Cutting pansions is useless, cynical and painful.
But the reality is Greece had a decade of cheap loans and several decades of major subsidies out of the EU budget (amounting to several billion Euro per year), and all it did was make the country non-competitive and dependent on more and more loans.
And why should we care ? It's the past, can we fix current problems and not try to judge past behaviors ?
Plus, this is, to me, a very naïve vision of reality. "They had cheap loans but couldn't use it for competitive investments !". Sadly, reality is a bit harsh : the entire europe was unable to use cheap loans to grow. Our grow is just weak, and this is not specific of the south. Greece is victim of our global economy tendancy for stagnation - even in the US economists talk about secular stagnation.
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On the topic of Russian aid:
1. Russia's financial support is different from the kind that EU/IMF bankers offer. Troika money is a loan in the traditional sense, in that it is money that is expected to be repaid, that must be used under given conditions that are not always fair to the debtor but that are created to give the creditor some form of insurance. Russian money is more like conditional aid - it's called a loan, but no one expects it to be repaid in full. But as long as that nation is under good terms with Russia, and makes a few political concessions, no one is going to call the loan or force repayment.
2. You can see this in Ukraine. While Ukraine was friendly with Russia, Russia gave money and didn't force it to meet its deadlines or pay for its (already highly subsidized below market price) gas. Once the current government took power and started negotiating against Russia, all that support instantly evaporates, and Russia shows that it has substantial leverage to sink Ukraine if it so desires (which it really hasn't done; Russia has the right to demand all debts to be repaid right now but it has yet to do so FWIW). The IMF loans to Ukraine have substantially more strict conditions.
3. On the other hand, Russia has a lot less money than the troika. It probably can't spare more than maybe $20 billion if Greece asked for aid, because it has its own crisis to deal with. I don't expect Russia to offer the money unless it is asked.
4. Don't drag the argumentative and highly politically charged BS associated with the Ukraine crisis into this thread. It is only tangentially relevant, it creates a flame war, and the facts are not so clear cut that you can make claims as baseless and confrontational as these:
On July 13 2015 23:14 Plansix wrote:Until they invaded through a proxy war. Its almost like they were doing more with the sole purpose of mainlining loyalty to Russia in the areas they wanted to annex. If you are going to throw claims around of helpful countries, pick one that isn't run by a Bond villain.
On July 13 2015 22:47 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 22:35 WhiteDog wrote:
Russia's help seems better than europe's tho. When you look at Ukraine, ...
Yes, Ukraine is currently in a really wonderful situation due to Russia.
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On July 13 2015 23:52 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms. You have a static vision of economy. What they pay in pansion is used in the economy, and go back to the government through taxation. Reducing pansion will only lead to reduced GDP, it's mathematical. Plus, don't make it seem like Greek are rich, they have pansion but a big part (1/3 ?) of the people that get those pansions are in a state of poverty. They have no unemployment benefit so the pansion is usually used to support the entire familly. Cutting pansions is useless.
Paying the pension is also useless because the government doesn't have the money to pay it. Why continue to delude people into thinking the money is going to continue when it won't? Reality is better than fantasy land.
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3. On the other hand, Russia has a lot less money than the troika. It probably can't spare more than maybe $20 billion if Greece asked for aid, because it has its own crisis to deal with. I don't expect Russia to offer the money unless it is asked.
It's not really about money right now, but about printing a new currency (even if it actually cost a lot). I'm sure the Russian can do that, but it was just an exemple, the US would be a better contender since Greece is in NATO.
On July 13 2015 23:57 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:52 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms. You have a static vision of economy. What they pay in pansion is used in the economy, and go back to the government through taxation. Reducing pansion will only lead to reduced GDP, it's mathematical. Plus, don't make it seem like Greek are rich, they have pansion but a big part (1/3 ?) of the people that get those pansions are in a state of poverty. They have no unemployment benefit so the pansion is usually used to support the entire familly. Cutting pansions is useless. Paying the pension is also useless because the government doesn't have the money to pay it. Why continue to delude people into thinking the money is going to continue when it won't? Reality is better than fantasy land.
That's untrue ? The Greeks are not in deficit right, or a very small one. And the money you give in pansion actually helping people, those things that Europe don't care about.
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EU gives regular old business loans. Russian loans, in reality are equity.
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On July 13 2015 23:58 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +3. On the other hand, Russia has a lot less money than the troika. It probably can't spare more than maybe $20 billion if Greece asked for aid, because it has its own crisis to deal with. I don't expect Russia to offer the money unless it is asked. It's not really about money right now, but about printing a new currency (even if it actually cost a lot). I'm sure the Russian can do that, but it was just an exemple, the US would be a better contender since Greece is in NATO. Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:57 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:52 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms. You have a static vision of economy. What they pay in pansion is used in the economy, and go back to the government through taxation. Reducing pansion will only lead to reduced GDP, it's mathematical. Plus, don't make it seem like Greek are rich, they have pansion but a big part (1/3 ?) of the people that get those pansions are in a state of poverty. They have no unemployment benefit so the pansion is usually used to support the entire familly. Cutting pansions is useless. Paying the pension is also useless because the government doesn't have the money to pay it. Why continue to delude people into thinking the money is going to continue when it won't? Reality is better than fantasy land. That's untrue ? The Greeks are not in deficit right, or a very small one. And the money you give in pansion actually helping people, those things that Europe don't care about.
Wait, you are making the claim if all the debt was forgiven today that Greece could just return to business as usual?
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On July 14 2015 00:04 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:58 WhiteDog wrote:3. On the other hand, Russia has a lot less money than the troika. It probably can't spare more than maybe $20 billion if Greece asked for aid, because it has its own crisis to deal with. I don't expect Russia to offer the money unless it is asked. It's not really about money right now, but about printing a new currency (even if it actually cost a lot). I'm sure the Russian can do that, but it was just an exemple, the US would be a better contender since Greece is in NATO. On July 13 2015 23:57 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:52 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:
[quote]
That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms. You have a static vision of economy. What they pay in pansion is used in the economy, and go back to the government through taxation. Reducing pansion will only lead to reduced GDP, it's mathematical. Plus, don't make it seem like Greek are rich, they have pansion but a big part (1/3 ?) of the people that get those pansions are in a state of poverty. They have no unemployment benefit so the pansion is usually used to support the entire familly. Cutting pansions is useless. Paying the pension is also useless because the government doesn't have the money to pay it. Why continue to delude people into thinking the money is going to continue when it won't? Reality is better than fantasy land. That's untrue ? The Greeks are not in deficit right, or a very small one. And the money you give in pansion actually helping people, those things that Europe don't care about. Wait, you are making the claim if all the debt was forgiven today that Greece could just return to business as usual?
No I'm saying that if you want Greece to pay its debt, or a part of it at least, you need to acknowledge that shrinking its economy is the worst way to do it.
They need to grow, and the excess wealth created can be used to pay the debt, that's what was agreed basically in 1953 when the Greek among others accepted to eraze half of the German debt : one of the condition was that the German would stop to pay the debt if they had a deficit of their current account.
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On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? With the arm maybe ?
This analogy is almost adequate. You are sick. You commit to cut your leg to stop the spread. However, midway through the cut, with your flesh opened to the bone, you stop for a few days. You then ask the same doctor that told you cutting your leg was the only solution if you couldn't perhaps get some more medicine. At that point, the spread is worse. From the doctor point of view the leg won't be enough anymore, but his solution isn't proven wrong: only your willingness to go through the treatment.
On the other hand, if you go through and cut the leg as promised, but the disease still spreads, you're in a much better position to ask for an alternative cure.
Main issue is Greece cut the first leg, then the second, and stopped midway through the first arm to wonder if perhaps everything was for the best. Still, it had agreed to cut the arm 
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On July 14 2015 00:08 Oshuy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? With the arm maybe ? This analogy is almost adequate. You are sick. You commit to cut your leg to stop the spread. However, midway through the cut, with your flesh opened to the bone, you stop for a few days. You then ask the same doctor that told you cutting your leg was the only solution if you couldn't perhaps get some more medicine. At that point, the spread is worse. From the doctor point of view the leg won't be enough anymore, but his solution isn't proven wrong: only your willingness to go through the treatment. On the other hand, if you go through and cut the leg as promised, but the disease still spreads, you're in a much better position to ask for an alternative cure. Main issue is Greece cut the first leg, then the second, and stopped midway through the first arm to wonder if perhaps everything was for the best. Still, it had agreed to cut the arm
Or maybe the blood you lose actually weaken your body and fasten the spreading ?
This analogy is indeed very good.
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On July 14 2015 00:13 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 00:08 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? With the arm maybe ? This analogy is almost adequate. You are sick. You commit to cut your leg to stop the spread. However, midway through the cut, with your flesh opened to the bone, you stop for a few days. You then ask the same doctor that told you cutting your leg was the only solution if you couldn't perhaps get some more medicine. At that point, the spread is worse. From the doctor point of view the leg won't be enough anymore, but his solution isn't proven wrong: only your willingness to go through the treatment. On the other hand, if you go through and cut the leg as promised, but the disease still spreads, you're in a much better position to ask for an alternative cure. Main issue is Greece cut the first leg, then the second, and stopped midway through the first arm to wonder if perhaps everything was for the best. Still, it had agreed to cut the arm Or maybe the blood you lose actually weaken your body and fasten the spreading ? This analogy is indeed very good.
With all this blood lost, you cannot expect to fuel such a large body. Better chop some more off. Still, I disagree with the spread. You will always manage to cut enough.
The only major issue is that the time expected to regrow your lost limbs may at some point exceed the estimate between two diseases. Question: do you prefer to feel sick with both your arms and legs or to be in shape and crippled?
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On July 14 2015 00:04 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2015 23:58 WhiteDog wrote:3. On the other hand, Russia has a lot less money than the troika. It probably can't spare more than maybe $20 billion if Greece asked for aid, because it has its own crisis to deal with. I don't expect Russia to offer the money unless it is asked. It's not really about money right now, but about printing a new currency (even if it actually cost a lot). I'm sure the Russian can do that, but it was just an exemple, the US would be a better contender since Greece is in NATO. On July 13 2015 23:57 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:52 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:
[quote]
That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms. You have a static vision of economy. What they pay in pansion is used in the economy, and go back to the government through taxation. Reducing pansion will only lead to reduced GDP, it's mathematical. Plus, don't make it seem like Greek are rich, they have pansion but a big part (1/3 ?) of the people that get those pansions are in a state of poverty. They have no unemployment benefit so the pansion is usually used to support the entire familly. Cutting pansions is useless. Paying the pension is also useless because the government doesn't have the money to pay it. Why continue to delude people into thinking the money is going to continue when it won't? Reality is better than fantasy land. That's untrue ? The Greeks are not in deficit right, or a very small one. And the money you give in pansion actually helping people, those things that Europe don't care about. Wait, you are making the claim if all the debt was forgiven today that Greece could just return to business as usual?
Not exactly that, but we had a minor primary surplus in 2014. IMF hasn't paid anything since August 2014 and we haven't got much from the ECB other than the ELA mechanism. Syriza has been draining the reserves these last 5 months to pay for pensions and wages while paying the various debt repayments in between.
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On July 14 2015 00:21 gsgfdf wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 00:04 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:58 WhiteDog wrote:3. On the other hand, Russia has a lot less money than the troika. It probably can't spare more than maybe $20 billion if Greece asked for aid, because it has its own crisis to deal with. I don't expect Russia to offer the money unless it is asked. It's not really about money right now, but about printing a new currency (even if it actually cost a lot). I'm sure the Russian can do that, but it was just an exemple, the US would be a better contender since Greece is in NATO. On July 13 2015 23:57 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:52 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:49 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:44 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:40 Oshuy wrote:On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote:They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be.
I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:
The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) So you are sick. You make a commitment to cut part of your leg in order to get better. After five years of cutting, you're still sick and your leg is fucked. You continue ? On July 13 2015 23:44 Plansix wrote:On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote:On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote:
[quote]
Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. I think you're confused as to what is Greece economic problem right now. They have no money and no ability to fund their government. They pay out to much in pensions and other benefits while not collecting enough in taxes. Its like Detroit, except that no one thought Detroit was going to leave the US and the people living in Detroit knew they needed reforms. You have a static vision of economy. What they pay in pansion is used in the economy, and go back to the government through taxation. Reducing pansion will only lead to reduced GDP, it's mathematical. Plus, don't make it seem like Greek are rich, they have pansion but a big part (1/3 ?) of the people that get those pansions are in a state of poverty. They have no unemployment benefit so the pansion is usually used to support the entire familly. Cutting pansions is useless. Paying the pension is also useless because the government doesn't have the money to pay it. Why continue to delude people into thinking the money is going to continue when it won't? Reality is better than fantasy land. That's untrue ? The Greeks are not in deficit right, or a very small one. And the money you give in pansion actually helping people, those things that Europe don't care about. Wait, you are making the claim if all the debt was forgiven today that Greece could just return to business as usual? Not exactly that, but we had a minor primary surplus in 2014. IMF hasn't paid anything since August 2014 and we haven't got much from the ECB other than the ELA mechanism. Syriza has been draining the reserves these last 5 months to pay for pensions and wages while paying the various debt repayments in between.
That sounds like poor governing if they didn't also provide a revenue stream like increased tax collection to make up for the short fall. There needs to be debt forgiveness for sure, but populus governance doesn't seem to be the way to get it. Or just pull the trigger and leave the EU, but then there are other issues.
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This medical analogy is flawed. The EU didn't tell Greece to cut off an arm, it told it Greece to lose some weight because it had diabetes and heart disease in exchange for assistance to buy healthy food. Greece spent the money on gourmet candy/
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On July 14 2015 01:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
This medical analogy is flawed. The EU didn't tell Greece to cut off an arm, it told it Greece to lose some weight because it had diabetes and heart disease in exchange for assistance to buy healthy food. Greece spent the money on gourmet candy/
It's not flawed at all, Greece did not had diabetes : this liberal idea that administration or anything is too big for growth has been proved wrong many times. The economy is a circuit, when you reduce spending at a grand scale you create a recession by contracting the demand. It's pure logic.
You need to reduce spending during growth, so that the benefit effect of growth offset the negative effect of budgetary cut - it's called a "counter cyclical economic policy".
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On July 14 2015 01:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
This medical analogy is flawed. The EU didn't tell Greece to cut off an arm, it told it Greece to lose some weight because it had diabetes and heart disease in exchange for assistance to buy healthy food. Greece spent the money on gourmet candy/
The first bailout and all of the austerity measures weren't about helping Greece. It was wholly about preventing the collapse of the French & German banks. (Though some of the measures are good ideas in general. But they become "bad ideas" when it's being dictated by another Power. People respond like that.)
The proper analogy is Greece was made to take the wrong medicine (and become addicted to it) to help the doctor's friends not take a huge financial hit.
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On July 14 2015 01:16 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2015 01:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
This medical analogy is flawed. The EU didn't tell Greece to cut off an arm, it told it Greece to lose some weight because it had diabetes and heart disease in exchange for assistance to buy healthy food. Greece spent the money on gourmet candy/ It's not flawed at all, Greece did not had diabetes : this liberal idea that administration or anything is too big has been proved wrong many times. The economy is a circuit, when you reduce spending at a grand scale you create a recession by contracting the demand. It's pure logic.
Maybe you want to stop projecting your personal views as facts and stop pretending that economists agree about everything.
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EPT
