EPTThere can not be a serious referendum about "do you want to keep a payment contract we agreed to or not".
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 198
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
|
unsaeglich
260 Posts
There can not be a serious referendum about "do you want to keep a payment contract we agreed to or not". | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22359 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:35 WhiteDog wrote: LOl ? I said that ? The euro is destroying them. They want to stay for political, ideological reasons. Russia's help seems better than europe's tho. When you look at Ukraine, Europe did not give any monetary support, Russia did. Plus Greece culturally is close to Russia since they are both orthodox. For the lol Sorry you indeed did not say it was because of the Euro, ill edit my prev post to be more clear. | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22359 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:43 unsaeglich wrote: the referendum was a "vote of no confidence", nothing else. There can not be a serious referendum about "do you want to keep a payment contract we agreed to or not". They already broke the payment contract before that. The referendum was about a new deal to replace the one they broke half a year before. And then they held it after the deadline of said deal :p | ||
|
Simberto
Germany11835 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:35 WhiteDog wrote: Russia's help seems better than europe's tho. When you look at Ukraine, ... Yes, Ukraine is currently in a really wonderful situation due to Russia. | ||
|
InVerno
258 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:32 Gorsameth wrote: Heck most of these 'humiliating' agreements are simply the reforms they failed to do the last time being forced upon them now. Yes its so terrible they are being kept to their word... You do know behind the word "reforms" there must be money right? Otherwise you're talking about vertical\orizontal cuts, which are not reforms from any pow. Germany created the Hartz system breaking the 3% rule back in time, nothing bad in it (from my perspective), but with austerity and no founds avaible, any kind of reform it's just a trasfer of debt from public debt to private debt, which also is the real increasing dangerous number in the whole thing. | ||
|
Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:22 WhiteDog wrote: Greek don't want to exit the euro, that's the problem. Tsipras and Varoufakis didn't prepare it, because they don't want to. It would be so easy for Greece to ask something from the US and Russia, since they have ties with those two huge countries... like some printing machine for exemple ? The US did it for Iraq, they can do it for Greece. I can't find when the Lease is up for renewal, but the US Navy has a Support Base/NATO base at Souda Bay on Crete. Tsipras could have negotiated an extended lease for a full run of "quiet" printing + a set of printing presses. He had some leverage and good will to work with. (Even if we weren't going to bailout out Greece directly) If Obama wasn't really against Naval expansion, there's been room to produce a bidding war for a new Naval Base somewhere in Greece. If the bids were between Russia & the USA. That'd have been worth a few billion USD a year. Still, that would have taken planning. And planning and anything happening in Greece don't go hand-in-hand right now. | ||
|
WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:47 Simberto wrote: Yes, Ukraine is currently in a really wonderful situation due to Russia. And what did Europe do to help Ukraine ? Can you point out something ? For Greece it's the same : they need some flexibility and help to get growth going, and they get nothing but restrictive measure that will hinder growth. An account of the past five months of negotiations from Varoufakis : http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/07/exclusive-yanis-varoufakis-opens-about-his-five-month-battle-save-greece | ||
|
ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:35 WhiteDog wrote: LOl ? I said that ? The euro is destroying them. They want to stay for political, ideological reasons. What about the massive capital infusions which allowed Greece to maintain their unrealistic economic prosperity since joining the EU? If you take a loan from a bank to build a business and then piss it away on nice things for yourself instead then when the creditor comes a-knocking and wants to recoup his losses (or in this case is very nice and wants you to show some efforts towards becoming financially responsible), you shouldn't be acting indignant. | ||
|
Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:01 WhiteDog wrote: And what did Europe do to help Ukraine ? Can you point out something ? For Greece it's the same : they need some flexibility and help to get growth going, and they get nothing but restrictive measure that will hinder growth. Europe lacks the magic powers to make all Russian guns disappear from Ukraine. Instead sanctioned Russia a whole bunch. And they have provided aid to Ukraine, just not weapons. Shockingly, the idea of an escalating proxy war with Russia appeals to no one. Your whole "Russia is better" argument is sort of garbage. | ||
|
WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:07 ticklishmusic wrote: What about the massive capital infusions which allowed Greece to maintain their unrealistic economic prosperity since joining the EU? If you take a loan from a bank to build a business and then piss it away on nice things for yourself instead then when the creditor comes a-knocking and wants to recoup his losses (or in this case is very nice and wants you to show some efforts towards becoming financially responsible), you shouldn't be acting indignant. I want a real proof that the Greek "pissed" their loan to buy nice things. Prove me. What happenned is that the euro lowered interests rates, faclitating debt, and that the debt was used to buy competitive goods from other european country (with no flexible exchange, so no limit). It's the euro trap, and yeah it's destroying their economy. It's Germany that benefits from Greece's debt. On July 13 2015 23:08 Plansix wrote: Europe lacks the magic powers to make all Russian guns disappear from Ukraine. Instead sanctioned Russia a whole bunch. And they have provided aid to Ukraine, just not weapons. Shockingly, the idea of an escalating proxy war with Russia appeals to no one. Your whole "Russia is better" argument is sort of garbage. Whatever, I'm not talking about the war but about the economic difficulties in Ukraine that predated the civil war. Russia was doing more than Europe, it's a mathematical fact. | ||
|
Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:10 WhiteDog wrote: You sound ignorant tho. I want a real proof that the Greek "pissed" their loan to buy nice things. Prove me. What happenned is that the euro lowered interests rates, faclitating debt, and that the debt was used to buy competitive goods from other european country (with no flexible exchange, so no limit). It's the euro trap, and yeah it's destroying their economy. It's Germany that benefits from Greece's debt. They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be. I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. On July 13 2015 23:10 WhiteDog wrote: Whatever, I'm not talking about the war but about the economic difficulties in Ukraine that predated the civil war. Russia was doing more than Europe, it's a mathematical fact. Until they invaded through a proxy war. Its almost like they were doing more with the sole purpose of mainlining loyalty to Russia in the areas they wanted to annex. If you are going to throw claims around of helpful countries, pick one that isn't run by a Bond villain. | ||
|
maartendq
Belgium3115 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:07 ticklishmusic wrote: What about the massive capital infusions which allowed Greece to maintain their unrealistic economic prosperity since joining the EU? If you take a loan from a bank to build a business and then piss it away on nice things for yourself instead then when the creditor comes a-knocking and wants to recoup his losses (or in this case is very nice and wants you to show some efforts towards becoming financially responsible), you shouldn't be acting indignant. When thinking about Greece, the cynic in me pictures a scene from Parks and Recreation: Tom Haberford and Jean-Ralphio have just founded their own company. As a location they rent a hangar and fill it up with luxurious things and people getting paid for doing nothing productive while using money they loaned from a bank. Then Ben Wyatt comes over to have a look at their bookkeeping and finds out they're not producing anything and will be bankrupt in less than a month. As thanks for his services, Ben Wyatt gets to pick an iPad from a stack of iPads, and the party continues. Ron Swanson would then be the equivalent of Germany: hard working, rich but not spending a dime on unnecessary things (in addition to being incredibly conservative). Then again, this is just a caricature, please don't take this in any way seriously. Also, this whole #thisisacoup-thing is ridiculous. As far as I know, no-one was nearly as upset when the EC replaced Berlusconi by a technocrat, (but then again that was probably because everyone was in agreement that Berlusconi was a clown we needed to get rid of as soon as possible). | ||
|
warding
Portugal2395 Posts
I don't buy that Syriza didn't want to leave the Euro. They would have had the political support for it and they'd have a lot more power and sovereignty to implement their true ideological program. But they'd have to prepare for it (establish the designs and printing presses well in advance; devise a plan to somehow save the banking system) and I'm guessing they didn't. A Grexit without any preparation would be a financial catastrophe for Greece. Banks would go insolvent, the government would go insolvent and the country would be in a liquidity squeeze of epic proportions. Theoretical economists may ramble about how Greece would be better off out of the Euro but the process in practice would be almost impossible to get right without crushing the Greek economy even further. | ||
|
WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
They didn't do any of the reforms that they promised to do and elected a government that said they would stop all austerity. Even if they were debt free today, they wouldn't have any ability to pay people or guarantee their pensions. Also there is a fear of the run on the banks because they are no longer government backed. They need to fix a lot of things before they can have their debt restructured, which is should be. I blame the lenders for a lot of what happened, but if Greece wants to stay in the EU, they need to at least figure out how to collect taxes and run their government. Or they can default, leave the EU and then have no ability to run their government and work their way back up. That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Until they invaded through a proxy war. Its almost like they were doing more with the sole purpose of mainlining loyalty to Russia in the areas they wanted to annex. If you are going to throw claims around of helpful countries, pick one that isn't run by a Bond villain. You're misunderstanding my point entirely. I don't see Russia as a knight, but as a country that play for its interests. Still, they did more for Ukraine than Europe did, period. Europeans were stupid, and didn't understand where their interests actually were. Look at the relationship between Turkey and Europe ? It's the same. Now, regarding Greece, Russia could gain a lot from helping them, like having another way for a gaz pipeline to Europe. This could be leveradge for Greece to get themselves what is needed to get out of the euro. The Greeks also benefited from higher salaries and public expenditure while they were going deeper into debt. It was indeed a trap, but one that could have been avoided. Makes me laugh. Every country is Europe has higher debt GDP ratio than the target (60 %) but somehow it's Greece's fault. What about Spain, France, Italy, Finland ? Even Germany. But no it's the Greek that did it, with 3% of the european debt. | ||
|
Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote: That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. | ||
|
ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote: That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. I'm not talking about austerity in the last few years of bailouts, I'm talking irresponsible behavior since Greece joined the Eurozone. I'm also not saying that it's individual Greeks to blame, it's the entire system that's been in place for most of the modern era. On July 13 2015 23:10 WhiteDog wrote: I want a real proof that the Greek "pissed" their loan to buy nice things. Prove me. What happenned is that the euro lowered interests rates, faclitating debt, and that the debt was used to buy competitive goods from other european country (with no flexible exchange, so no limit). It's the euro trap, and yeah it's destroying their economy. It's Germany that benefits from Greece's debt. How is that a trap? It's just how leverage works, take on debt for additional growth. That sounds like a really good deal. You get to buy competitive goods against low-interest credit. Your words not mine. If you choose to buy a company jet instead of factory equipment, that's your own fault. Not the creditors. Here, the company jet is unsustainable public jobs and benefits. Factory equipment would be real infrastructure investment. Both go on the balance sheet, but only one generates revenue, while the other is in fact a money drain. | ||
|
Gorsameth
Netherlands22359 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:24 warding wrote: The Greeks also benefited from higher salaries and public expenditure while they were going deeper into debt. It was indeed a trap, but one that could have been avoided. I don't buy that Syriza didn't want to leave the Euro. They would have had the political support for it and they'd have a lot more power and sovereignty to implement their true ideological program. But they'd have to prepare for it (establish the designs and printing presses well in advance; devise a plan to somehow save the banking system) and I'm guessing they didn't. A Grexit without any preparation would be a financial catastrophe for Greece. Banks would go insolvent, the government would go insolvent and the country would be in a liquidity squeeze of epic proportions. Theoretical economists may ramble about how Greece would be better off out of the Euro but the process in practice would be almost impossible to get right without crushing the Greek economy even further. Throughout the crisis the majority of Greeks have polled to be for keep the Euro so that is kinda true. Tsipras doesn't (and didn't) have the support for that. The mistakes was Greeks believing they could stay while avoiding austerity. | ||
|
WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:35 Plansix wrote: Except for the last 7 months where they have talked about not doing it and ending austerity. I agree that their debt is sustainable, but the idea that they are doing everything right and the EU is wrong to ask for reforms isn't reality. The debt needs to be restructured and a lot of it forgiven, but the Greeks need to also accept they need to do things like collect taxes for reals. The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? At least, auterity in Spain had some positive result on competitivity. Austerity in Greece did not, it's a failure. There is nothing to add to that. Continuing further is economic suicide. | ||
|
Oshuy
Netherlands529 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:29 WhiteDog wrote: That's false, they did evertyhing that was wished from them. Maybe you didn't follow the entire story, but since the beginning they are doing everything that is asked. In fact, Greece is the sole country that pushed austerity this far. There is an argument to know if they pushed it further than others, but they surely are the ones that kept on pushing the longuest (2009-2014) even though they didn't get the promised result. It is true however that Tsipras backed up on quite a few of the commitments that had been made previously, but were not yet in full effect (that is partly why he was elected after all). I don't have a full list, but he for example stopped most of the privatizations that were expected. On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote: The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? That is part of the negociating issues: The value of a commitment. Not easy to ask for something in exchange of a promise months after you broke one. Quite different from refusing to take new commitments that would go in the same direction. (it has nothing to do with economics at this point though) | ||
|
Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On July 13 2015 23:36 WhiteDog wrote: The last 7 months ? They did it for 5 years with no results except a decrease of GDP and an increase of the debt. Why would they continue ? Because their GDP would still be terrible even if they stopped. I think you are confused in thinking that the debt repayment somehow is killing their economy. They have none and exiting the EU and no long paying the debt won't fix that. If anything, it might make it worse or cause all the banks in the country to become insolvent. Everyone loses when that happens. It is also economic suicide, because their government and soviet style economy doesn't function. | ||
| ||
