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On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Greece has shown to be utterly unwilling to reform.
You don't give them debt relief without reform having been done because else they will just say No again and go back to their old ways.
How often has this been explained to you...
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room.
What a fucking bullshit. Every time here in the Netherlands there is some talk about changing the tax system, changing employment laws, talk about subsidies on house mortages, talk about BTW tax tarifs, it is immediately shot down.
We are dead last on the reform ranking list in Europe. Who is no.1? Greece.
We are fucking hypocrites. We can't reform a tiny law. Yet we moan and complain Greece can't reform. We are so blind in our political ideology. We think Greece must not have reformed a tiny bit because their economy hasn't recovered. I mean, if austerity works, which it must a prior, and Greece isn't recovering; they must not have done enough austerity. So they need more.
![[image loading]](http://blogs-images.forbes.com/stevekeen/files/2015/02/image0011.png)
You criticize me that I don't know enough and I make points that have been refuted. But I believe this image has been posted more than 2 times before. This makes the 4th or 5th time.
You are a hypocrite and a liar yourself.
Same for Merkel. She has done no reforms. Center-left Schreuder and Green's Fischer did all the reforms/dirty work for her.
Also, even if you are right, I was responding to a person who says debt restructuring is on the table. Yet you respond saying it isn't on the table and rightly so. That's all besides the point. Can you read?
Yes, Tsipras is voted in office to stop austerity. Of course he is. Austerity has failed. It has failed the Greeks, but also everyone else in the Eurozone. Tsipras is here to cure us from the delusion of austerity. Of course he is going to say 'no' to reforms. But when you say 'Greece has done no reforms', that is utter bullshit. They have, and that is the problem. They shouldn't have listened to our reforms demands, but sadly they did and now we are all fucked.
Now Greece has problems with the efficiency of the tax collection and the pensions. But it costs money on the short term to make them more efficient in the long run.
All true reforms are investments. Cuts and austerity aren't reforms. They are just cheap fast money by lowering the quality of the services the government offers their citizens.
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The difference is we can pay our loans and are not existing on life support
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On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room.
I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier.
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On July 08 2015 23:25 Gorsameth wrote:
The difference is we can pay our loans and are not existing on life support
The difference is we gambled away our money and are too greedy to take the loss.
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On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:08 Alcathous wrote:On July 08 2015 23:01 Acrofales wrote:
That little blurb is all very well, but I think debt relief and restructuring is on the table, but ONLY after Greece actually makes reforms so that debt restructuring makes sense. So how is it on the table? Greece has to sign a deal where they are to do more reforms and austerity. Only if they do that then Eurogroup will hand out debt restructuring as they see fit. It will be handed out as a reward. This is the line that has come out of the Eurozone. So it is not to be part of any negotiations or and deal; it is not on the table and it is still a taboo to talk about it. This means exactly that it is not on the table as it will never be part of a deal. This is the old Eurogroup position. So I don't know how you can say 'it is on the table'. If it is truly on the table, so part of a possible deal, then EU changed their position. We are all waiting for Merkel to hold a speech and announce that debt restructuring is going to be part of the solution; is needed and offered, giving the green light for a deal Greece can accept. If this don't happen they all have to find a situation where Greece is still barely inside the euro, barely not broke, barely not in chaos, and see if they can make circumstances on the Greek streets bad enough so that Greece will have absolutely no choice. Greece has shown to be utterly unwilling to reform. You don't give them debt relief without reform having been done because else they will just say No again and go back to their old ways. How often has this been explained to you... Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room.
Please try to be a bit less ignorant. You are comparing a country with a dog that needs to be put down...
Seriously...
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On July 08 2015 23:26 corumjhaelen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier.
An bad analogy im sorry. I dont mean to equate Greeks to dogs and ill remove it.
But my point remains, Greece is not trusted to do (enough) reforms on its own so it has to be given incentives to follow through. That is simple reality
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On July 08 2015 23:29 gsgfdf wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:On July 08 2015 23:08 Alcathous wrote:On July 08 2015 23:01 Acrofales wrote:
That little blurb is all very well, but I think debt relief and restructuring is on the table, but ONLY after Greece actually makes reforms so that debt restructuring makes sense. So how is it on the table? Greece has to sign a deal where they are to do more reforms and austerity. Only if they do that then Eurogroup will hand out debt restructuring as they see fit. It will be handed out as a reward. This is the line that has come out of the Eurozone. So it is not to be part of any negotiations or and deal; it is not on the table and it is still a taboo to talk about it. This means exactly that it is not on the table as it will never be part of a deal. This is the old Eurogroup position. So I don't know how you can say 'it is on the table'. If it is truly on the table, so part of a possible deal, then EU changed their position. We are all waiting for Merkel to hold a speech and announce that debt restructuring is going to be part of the solution; is needed and offered, giving the green light for a deal Greece can accept. If this don't happen they all have to find a situation where Greece is still barely inside the euro, barely not broke, barely not in chaos, and see if they can make circumstances on the Greek streets bad enough so that Greece will have absolutely no choice. Greece has shown to be utterly unwilling to reform. You don't give them debt relief without reform having been done because else they will just say No again and go back to their old ways. How often has this been explained to you... Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. Please try to be a bit less ignorant. You are comparing a country with a dog that needs to be put down... Seriously...
Don't put words in my mouth thank you. The analogy was bad and for that I apologize. It was not my intent to insult but no where did i say the dog should be put down.
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On July 08 2015 23:26 corumjhaelen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier.
He is one of those people who thinks that all debtors are dead beats need some "tough love". Which is funny because I work in a branch debt collection(legal side) and even I don’t think that. Debt can cripple a debtor’s ability to recover and move on, which is why there are bankruptcy laws in the US that let you wipe out uncollectable debt. Countries don’t have that option. In bankruptcy court, the debt collectors can be told they are idiots and they have to write off the loans they handed out to people who can’t pay. But in this case, the banks just get bailed out by their governments.
He talks about rewarding bad behavior, but his and other EU governments did that exact thing to their banks.
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On July 08 2015 23:33 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:26 corumjhaelen wrote:On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier. He is one of those people who thinks that all debtors are dead beats need some "tough love". Which is funny because I work in a branch debt collection(legal side) and even I don’t think that. Debt can cripple a debtor’s ability to recover and move on, which is why there are bankruptcy laws in the US that let you wipe out uncollectable debt. Countries don’t have that option. In bankruptcy court, the debt collectors can be told they are idiots and they have to write off the loans they handed out to people who can’t pay. But in this case, the banks just get bailed out by their governments. He talks about rewarding bad behavior, but his and other EU governments did that exact thing to their banks.
Greece cannot go on the way it is. Even with no debt. Hence why they need to reform. If the Eurozone trusted Greece to do what was needed then most of the problems in the negotiations would not exist. But there is 0 trust and as such debt relief is not on the table until the Eurozone knows that reforms have been carried out.
And no I have no problem at all with writing off the Greek debt but if we start with a write-off they will go right back to the very ways that lead them into this crisis.
And since your asking No i don't like banks, but this discussion has been about the situation Greece finds itself in right now. Not on how the world should deal with corrupt banks that play poker with the world economy.
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I feel its funny, that most people don't even know, that Greece already got 150 bn debt cut during the bailout...
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On July 08 2015 23:44 mahrgell wrote:
I feel its funny, that most people don't even know, that Greece already got 150 bn debt cut during the bailout...
They need more tho, there is no denying that. The issue is when those cuts should be given.
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On July 08 2015 23:39 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:33 Plansix wrote:On July 08 2015 23:26 corumjhaelen wrote:On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier. He is one of those people who thinks that all debtors are dead beats need some "tough love". Which is funny because I work in a branch debt collection(legal side) and even I don’t think that. Debt can cripple a debtor’s ability to recover and move on, which is why there are bankruptcy laws in the US that let you wipe out uncollectable debt. Countries don’t have that option. In bankruptcy court, the debt collectors can be told they are idiots and they have to write off the loans they handed out to people who can’t pay. But in this case, the banks just get bailed out by their governments. He talks about rewarding bad behavior, but his and other EU governments did that exact thing to their banks. Greece cannot go on the way it is. Even with no debt. Hence why they need to reform. If the Eurozone trusted Greece to do what was needed then most of the problems in the negotiations would not exist. But there is 0 trust and as such debt relief is not on the table until the Eurozone knows that reforms have been carried out. And no I have no problem at all with writing off the Greek debt but if we start with a write-off they will go right back to the very ways that lead them into this crisis. And since your asking No i don't like banks, but this discussion has been about the situation Greece finds itself in right now. Not on how the world should deal with corrupt banks that play poker with the world economy.
Sure, just as long that those banks don’t have to take the loss. Of course Greece needs reforms and that should have been done before they were allowed into the Eurozone. But people didn’t want that and just wanted another country to lend money to.
Really the question is if using these debts at leverage is a good way to promote reforms. From all evidence, it does not appear to be the case. And I don’t think doubling down on the “tough love” will make it any better. Making them more broke isn’t going to help their people. Many who had zero hand in creating the situation.
On July 08 2015 23:44 mahrgell wrote:
I feel its funny, that most people don't even know, that Greece already got 150 bn debt cut during the bailout...
150 billion no one was going to ever see anyways. 150 billion in bad loans handed out by banks that never should have.
So yeah, they cut 150 billion off nothing off the debt because it was never going to be collected. Its like when my client's credit lines get wiped out because they were idiots for giving them out in the first place.
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On July 08 2015 23:46 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:39 Gorsameth wrote:On July 08 2015 23:33 Plansix wrote:On July 08 2015 23:26 corumjhaelen wrote:On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier. He is one of those people who thinks that all debtors are dead beats need some "tough love". Which is funny because I work in a branch debt collection(legal side) and even I don’t think that. Debt can cripple a debtor’s ability to recover and move on, which is why there are bankruptcy laws in the US that let you wipe out uncollectable debt. Countries don’t have that option. In bankruptcy court, the debt collectors can be told they are idiots and they have to write off the loans they handed out to people who can’t pay. But in this case, the banks just get bailed out by their governments. He talks about rewarding bad behavior, but his and other EU governments did that exact thing to their banks. Greece cannot go on the way it is. Even with no debt. Hence why they need to reform. If the Eurozone trusted Greece to do what was needed then most of the problems in the negotiations would not exist. But there is 0 trust and as such debt relief is not on the table until the Eurozone knows that reforms have been carried out. And no I have no problem at all with writing off the Greek debt but if we start with a write-off they will go right back to the very ways that lead them into this crisis. And since your asking No i don't like banks, but this discussion has been about the situation Greece finds itself in right now. Not on how the world should deal with corrupt banks that play poker with the world economy. Sure, just as long that those banks don’t have to take the loss. Of course Greece needs reforms and that should have been done before they were allowed into the Eurozone. But people didn’t want that and just wanted another country to lend money to. Really the question is if using these debts at leverage is a good way to promote reforms. From all evidence, it does not appear to be the case. And I don’t think doubling down on the “tough love” will make it any better. Making them more broke isn’t going to help their people. Many who had zero hand in creating the situation.
What would you suggest then? Cutting their debt by X%, given them another Y billion and hoping they do the right thing so the same discussion doesn't happen in another 1-2 years?
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And again, it's not about trust, Spain has strong anti austerity political parties. Greece must be an example. It really is that simple.
The situation Greece finds itself now is heavily tied to private banks and how the ECB works, you can't suddenly say "nanana now today is the only thing that matters". The debt that you must pay is not because you lent money to the Greeks, it's because your goverment decided to bail out the private entities that would give them later on access to the revolving doors, while holding the burden in the common guy.
Or maybe it's because i am spanish, and i am either a cynic, or i can see political corruption from a mile.
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Reform takes money. You can't have reforms and austerity at the same time. It is a play of words.
Take their tax collection. It is utterly bad even after 5 years. Look at the interviews of the people who were in charge of that system and what they say.
To improve it you need to fire old people, hire new people, reform their methods; ie new software system, new training, external consultancy, new IT structures.
You need to invest in their ability to collect taxes, not force austerity on it. Austerity will lower the quality and efficiency. Same with their pension system; very expensive for the Greeks themselves and it rates very poorly when compared with other countries. Yet, austerity will make it worse, not better. Making it better will cost money short term.
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On July 08 2015 23:33 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:26 corumjhaelen wrote:On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier. He is one of those people who thinks that all debtors are dead beats need some "tough love". Which is funny because I work in a branch debt collection(legal side) and even I don’t think that. Debt can cripple a debtor’s ability to recover and move on, which is why there are bankruptcy laws in the US that let you wipe out uncollectable debt. Countries don’t have that option. In bankruptcy court, the debt collectors can be told they are idiots and they have to write off the loans they handed out to people who can’t pay. But in this case, the banks just get bailed out by their governments. He talks about rewarding bad behavior, but his and other EU governments did that exact thing to their banks.
I think one of the things that has to be remembered is that, yes, the EU bailed out the banks for their bad behaviour (they took a haircut, but not nearly as big a one as they should have), and thus foisted bad debt onto tax payers, and we can obviously sit here and debate whether that was a good idea or a bad idea (I thought it was dubious at the time, and things haven't played out too well, but we don't really know what would have happened if we had let things run their course).
However, debating the past is a completely futile effort, as is playing the blame game. Whether or not Greece is a dead beat who needs "tough love" is completely beside the point, and even discussing it in those terms defeats the entire argument. The question isn't about the character of Greece, it is about policy: what needs to be done to fix the current problems.
There are two schools of thought, mostly championed here on the forum by our two Dutch friends, and in Europe by Merkel and by Varoufakis.
The "Gorsameth and Merkel" approach: Greece has shown themselves to be incompetent in their reforms and untrustworthy partners in fixing their problem. They need to show they are serious about combatting clientelism, reforming government programs and creating a sustainable long-term situation. If and when Greece has shown this commitment, and if debt restructuring is necessary, then we can discuss that.
The "Alcathous and Varoufakis" approach: Greece is unduly burdened by crippling debt that is hampering any progress anybody can make in Greece. The debt needs to be restructured first, and after that we can look at the options for meaningful progress in combatting clientelism, reforming government programs and creating a sustainable long-term situation.
The problem is that the former approach has 0 (well, 40%, but in practice that's the same as 0) support within Greece, whereas the latter has 0 support in the rest of the EU.
Imho, that is mainly due to the behaviour of Tsipras: if he hadn't behaved like a bull in a china shop for the last 5 months, stalling and blowing up negotiations at every chance he got, he could have rallied serious support for an approach like the latter. But as Verhofstadt so eloquently spoke, Syriza has a track record in the last 5 months of continuing clientelism and doing absolutely nothing about the continued problems, so any trust that Greece will take any action towards meaningful progress is at an all time low. He has backed himself into the situation where the only option that can realistically be accepted now is the first option, which with the outcome of the referendum he cannot possibly accept.
I just hope everybody comes to their senses and realizes that tying a promise of debt relief to laws regarding specific reforms is the only option that might placate both sides, but that negotiating this will take a long time, and accute relief should be provided by the ESM on the short-term.
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And what everyone will glance over is that the authors clearly wrote "...a major reduction of Greece’s debts in conjunction with much needed reforms in Greece."
I'm still stupefied how these economists fail to take the political and social structure of a country into account. They keep mentioning the fact that a lot of countries forgave Germany's debt in the 1950s, but fail to also mention that, Germany back then had an almost century-old tradition of top-notch bureaucracy, high-quality industry and no lack entrepreneurialism (not to mention a population that trusts its leaders). Greece anno 2015 has a downright bloated civil service, manufactures nothing (that I'm aware of) and its population depends on the state to actually provide jobs and industry. I think it is also safe to assume that the most talented Greeks are looking for or have found a way out of the country.
And just like everyone else they talk about "the need to reform" but have no clue where to start.
*Greece has rampant taxation issues, but since the people has no trust in the state (on the contrary, the state is treated as a mechanism from which to extract rents), and since the economy has all but ground to a halt, this won't be fixed easily. On top of that the country consists of countless small islands, complicating things even more.
*Reforming the public sector would require redundancies, and probably lots of them. However, even more unemployment (or pensioners, since Greece apparently does not have unemployment benefits) is just about the last thing Greece needs. On top of that it will require dealing with a lot of powerful, vested interests that very few politicians dare tackle. Getting re-elected is after all more important to them than actually dealing with the problems at hand (this is the case with most politicians in Europe right now, unfortunately).
*Greece's economy provides goods mainly for Greeks, which means that Greece's exporting its way out of the crisis probably isn't going to happen (also this would require their products and labour to be cheaper than everyone else's, which will obviously irk the trade unions).
*etc. etc.
Apart from that there is indeed a humanitarian crisis going on, which we will probably end up tackling the way we tackle aid for third world countries (by plain bypassing the government), which the might injure the Greek pride even more.
Greece needs the money. However, the actions of several Greek governments the past five years completely eroded the trust the 'Institutions' (and by now the other 18 members of the EMU) had in Greece. Samaras promised reforms for money after he got elected in 2012 (if I'm not mistaken), but dragged his heels. Tispras got elected on the promise to actually undo the reforms, somehow decided that re-hiring public workers was a good idea, and seemed to truly believe that the election of him and Syriza (and the threat of Podemos getting elected later in the year) would single-handedly change the way the E(M)U went about its business.
Trust is the very foundation of economics, and no-one trusts Greece anymore. That is, in my view, the core issue right now.
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On July 08 2015 23:32 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:29 gsgfdf wrote:On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:On July 08 2015 23:08 Alcathous wrote:On July 08 2015 23:01 Acrofales wrote:
That little blurb is all very well, but I think debt relief and restructuring is on the table, but ONLY after Greece actually makes reforms so that debt restructuring makes sense. So how is it on the table? Greece has to sign a deal where they are to do more reforms and austerity. Only if they do that then Eurogroup will hand out debt restructuring as they see fit. It will be handed out as a reward. This is the line that has come out of the Eurozone. So it is not to be part of any negotiations or and deal; it is not on the table and it is still a taboo to talk about it. This means exactly that it is not on the table as it will never be part of a deal. This is the old Eurogroup position. So I don't know how you can say 'it is on the table'. If it is truly on the table, so part of a possible deal, then EU changed their position. We are all waiting for Merkel to hold a speech and announce that debt restructuring is going to be part of the solution; is needed and offered, giving the green light for a deal Greece can accept. If this don't happen they all have to find a situation where Greece is still barely inside the euro, barely not broke, barely not in chaos, and see if they can make circumstances on the Greek streets bad enough so that Greece will have absolutely no choice. Greece has shown to be utterly unwilling to reform. You don't give them debt relief without reform having been done because else they will just say No again and go back to their old ways. How often has this been explained to you... Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. Please try to be a bit less ignorant. You are comparing a country with a dog that needs to be put down... Seriously... Don't put words in my mouth thank you. The analogy was bad and for that I apologize. It was not my intent to insult but no where did i say the dog should be put down.
I take it back as well but you may as well have said that... I know i sound bitter but bear with me, things are bad.
Austerity doesn't work. Pensions and public sector wages have been cut by at least 30% across the board. I have read reports (by trustworthy media) that the lowest incomes have to pay up to 330% more taxes than before. In 2012 the lowest wage for private sector was cut as well. That crushed the market even more, people have almost stopped spending money on anything that is not essential. Most major companies offered new contracts with lower wages, if you didn't sign you were out. Unemployment is at an official 28%, 60% on youth. Up to this point, anyone still in Greece, both bussinesses and people, is still here because they cannot leave, either because of age or obligations.
And btw most major media here are extremely anti-Syriza and corrupt to the bone. Last Tuesday an anchorman literaly said that a NO vote means that we will leave the Euro and lose parts of our country from invading neighbors. On a major network, at 7 pm. And yet NO won by 22%. People simply cannot pay anymore. My family cannot pay anymore. And yet the voted YES on the deal because they are afraid that what they have left will be gone too.
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On July 08 2015 23:08 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:01 Rassy wrote:On July 08 2015 16:34 pretender58 wrote:On July 08 2015 12:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Also add to the market chaos, the bubble seems to have burst in China. As of typing the Market went down over 8% just in the first few minutes and 43% of the Market is frozen. Effects of that are rather weak on the eurozone as the stock market in China is largely cut off from the rest of the world. Ofc China is slumping which will affect trade, but the KP has previously shown to go very far to prevent economic slowdown. China will fall back very far I think. Its been growing for years in a row with a very high percentage. Its impossible to keep that up forever,sooner or later there will be a significant fall back. Its needed to make the system healthy again and weed out all the bad investments, then growth can begin again. Think this moment is now. It might even resemble the crisis of the 30,s in amerika. Think it will be close,almost impossible to imagine. This stagnation in china will last for years to come and will effect global economy. Hope I am wrong  I tend to agree. This is going to be a very ugly time for China. I'm actually traveling there this fall for a couple weeks. Should be interesting to say the least. And looking at the events in Europe and China, I find it very hard to believe reports from American economists (public and private) that the American economy will avoid recession through 2016. Typically the evaporation of trillions of dollars in assets globally affects everyone.
Hf in China
Despite the wide array of problems in China (demopraphic development, pollution, the bubble in the real estate market etc.) and now the downfall of the stock market, I'm not convinced they'll slide into recession. Largest foreign exchange reserves, tight government control and growth potential should prevent that.
"It's important for investors to separate the stock market volatility and economic slowdown in China," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York.
"Yes, the stock market is very volatile and is causing uncertainty, but you have to remember that only about 15 percent of China's population invests in the stock market."
Source and also see this.
To reiterate, chinese stock markets are rather isolated. Thus the evaporation of money will indeed make investors nervous and send markets down across the globe, but looking at the fact that roughly one third of the Shanghai index is already gone (worth $3 trillion), the global effects were minor.
Also, the humantitarian situation in Greece is declining. The EU is ready to send humanitarian aid.
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On July 08 2015 23:49 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:46 Plansix wrote:On July 08 2015 23:39 Gorsameth wrote:On July 08 2015 23:33 Plansix wrote:On July 08 2015 23:26 corumjhaelen wrote:On July 08 2015 23:15 Gorsameth wrote:
Yes its a reward. The same way you reward a dog with a snack when he doesn't shit in the living room. I can't believe you wrote that. You were amusing when you were merely passing your boringly previsible predictions as facts, but showing your true self is not making you look prettier. He is one of those people who thinks that all debtors are dead beats need some "tough love". Which is funny because I work in a branch debt collection(legal side) and even I don’t think that. Debt can cripple a debtor’s ability to recover and move on, which is why there are bankruptcy laws in the US that let you wipe out uncollectable debt. Countries don’t have that option. In bankruptcy court, the debt collectors can be told they are idiots and they have to write off the loans they handed out to people who can’t pay. But in this case, the banks just get bailed out by their governments. He talks about rewarding bad behavior, but his and other EU governments did that exact thing to their banks. Greece cannot go on the way it is. Even with no debt. Hence why they need to reform. If the Eurozone trusted Greece to do what was needed then most of the problems in the negotiations would not exist. But there is 0 trust and as such debt relief is not on the table until the Eurozone knows that reforms have been carried out. And no I have no problem at all with writing off the Greek debt but if we start with a write-off they will go right back to the very ways that lead them into this crisis. And since your asking No i don't like banks, but this discussion has been about the situation Greece finds itself in right now. Not on how the world should deal with corrupt banks that play poker with the world economy. Sure, just as long that those banks don’t have to take the loss. Of course Greece needs reforms and that should have been done before they were allowed into the Eurozone. But people didn’t want that and just wanted another country to lend money to. Really the question is if using these debts at leverage is a good way to promote reforms. From all evidence, it does not appear to be the case. And I don’t think doubling down on the “tough love” will make it any better. Making them more broke isn’t going to help their people. Many who had zero hand in creating the situation. What would you suggest then? Cutting their debt by X%, given them another Y billion and hoping they do the right thing so the same discussion doesn't happen in another 1-2 years?
Find an amount that ends the cycle of default and cut it to that. Then don't lend to them until they get their shit together. Rather than try to force change through harsh punishment, just don't allow them to make the same mistake again. Current the the public perception is Greece is that other powers are responsible for their economic woes. Ending the cycle of default will be a first step towards ending that.
Stop trying to get blood from a stone and just accept you have a Eurozone member that doesn't get to play by the Eurozone rules. Or boot them and let them default. Stop trying to beat them and just end it so everyone can move on.
PS: Clearly the issue is very complex, but the hard line approach of dragging this shit on for 10 years is just no sustainable.
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EPT
