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On July 08 2015 21:57 Alcathous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 21:45 c0ldfusion wrote:
Again, so far Tsipras is using every tool at his disposal to buy time and jockey for position at the negotiation table.
And I know I've said this before, Eurogroup cannot give in to his demands (moral hazard, policy contagion, etc.). Their hands are tied. Everything they've done so far is consistent with this stance. So either Tsipras accepts the terms and basically ignores the results of the referendum or he finds another way to keep delaying.
We are beyond purely economic rationale for these discussions. That's bullshit as what Tsipras is asking for now is what is inevitable anyway. There is a taboo to even say that debts will be restructured. They will be. But EU politicians don't dare to even talk about it? Why? Because they put themselves into a corner. The monetary union is fundamentally flawed. There is no political union and economies are too diverse. They knew this before the financial sector almost destroyed the world. They did nothing before or after. It is 5 years later and all EU politicians did was push the ball ahead of them and lie to their voters to stay in power. It is bullshit now to say their hands are tied. All they need to do is go back and say they were wrong these last 5 years, solve their own problems, then resign. But they won't because they put their personal interests before the future of the EU. As for moral hazard, the biggest problem is the refutation of austerity of Greece's economy recovering after they leave the Euro. Hence, Greece has to stay in the eurozone and suffer austerity. A radical left party can't refuse austerity and can't show some countries are better off without the euro. That is the true 'moral hazard'. No one is seeing what is happening in Greece and hoping they were in Greece's shoes. They got to be crazy? You really think Slovakia or Bulgaria see what is happening in Greece and plan to do the same thing? Hell no! It was moral hazard when they saved the banks. And they'd do the same today, moral hazard or not.
Good job at once again ignoring every post that has refuted your points and explained why things are the way they are.
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In 200 years this whole event will be a blip in a footnote to the formation of the United States of Europe 
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On July 08 2015 22:23 Acrofales wrote:In 200 years this whole event will be a blip in a footnote to the formation of the United States of Europe
Or the moment where a USoE could be formed, but never was, and civilization waned because in US vs China, US could only compete when fighting on equal footing; lower regard for human rights and modern values to the same level.
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On July 08 2015 22:23 Acrofales wrote:In 200 years this whole event will be a blip in a footnote to the formation of the United States of Europe
This kind of argument is so ignorant. Open your eyes, most europeans don't want your united states of europe, and every time they voted against it.
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True, and right now we can't because our politicians and institutions are too corrupt and made us all too polarized. But if we don't the world will move on without us, and mankind may be fucked forever.
No one is going to listen to a moral appeal of Luxemburg, or Denmark, or Iceland when China can ravage east Asia and win billions. US will keep lowering itself to China's standard to compete, until their people revolt.
Right now, we can't force a European bank to do anything. Even our banks are playing us for a fool because we are all too small and too divided. Even just the financial sector, they hold us hostage and if we don't unite, we will have no democracy. Our politicians right now are even publicly begging the banks to stop lobbying so strongly and give them a break.
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Hyperbolic much?
What's so bad about Sweden or Switzerland that they will be 'fucked forever'?
Also kind of arrogant to imply mankind as a whole needs Europeans or it is doomed...
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On July 08 2015 22:38 lord_nibbler wrote:
Hyperbolic much?
What's so bad about Sweden or Switzerland that they will be 'fucked forever'?
Also kind of arrogant to equal Europeans with mankind...
Why? You think you can count on China to be a beacon of civilization and solve issues like animal abuse, minorities, world hunger, corruption/war/poverty in Africa, climate change and the power of multinationals?
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On July 08 2015 21:57 Alcathous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 21:45 c0ldfusion wrote:
Again, so far Tsipras is using every tool at his disposal to buy time and jockey for position at the negotiation table.
And I know I've said this before, Eurogroup cannot give in to his demands (moral hazard, policy contagion, etc.). Their hands are tied. Everything they've done so far is consistent with this stance. So either Tsipras accepts the terms and basically ignores the results of the referendum or he finds another way to keep delaying.
We are beyond purely economic rationale for these discussions. That's bullshit as what Tsipras is asking for now is what is inevitable anyway. There is a taboo to even say that debts will be restructured. They will be. But EU politicians don't dare to even talk about it? Why? Because they put themselves into a corner. The monetary union is fundamentally flawed. There is no political union and economies are too diverse. They knew this before the financial sector almost destroyed the world. They did nothing before or after. It is 5 years later and all EU politicians did was push the ball ahead of them and lie to their voters to stay in power. It is bullshit now to say their hands are tied. All they need to do is go back and say they were wrong these last 5 years, solve their own problems, then resign. But they won't because they put their personal interests before the future of the EU. As for moral hazard, the biggest problem is the refutation of austerity of Greece's economy recovering after they leave the Euro. Hence, Greece has to stay in the eurozone and suffer austerity. A radical left party can't refuse austerity and can't show some countries are better off without the euro. That is the true 'moral hazard'. No one is seeing what is happening in Greece and hoping they were in Greece's shoes. They got to be crazy? You really think Slovakia or Bulgaria see what is happening in Greece and plan to do the same thing? Hell no! It was moral hazard when they saved the banks. And they'd do the same today, moral hazard or not.
Somehow the debts haven't been restructured for other countries in eurozone. Somehow, other countries that had similar problems in 2010 took measures and their budget is more or less fine now. Maybe Greeks were relying to much on debt being restructured all these years?
The monetary union is indeed flawed. Because while only ECB can print euro, every country can issue bonds and get in debt. It is flawed also because it relies on stats provided by national institutions. And those may have incentive to put some lies there. Now, the fact that this system is flawed, doesn't erase you debt. Especially since Greeks were part of this system too, and had a chance to make proposals on changing it.
Greeks have to understand that a system where half of population works in public sector with good salaries, and other half struggles in private sector with small salaries is not going to work ever. With or without eurozone countries.
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I am also always amazed at how important people think they, and the events around them are. Could the Greece situation herald the end of Europe as a "beacon of hope, democracy and prosperity, and could lead to far-reaching economic consequences across the world"? Sure, but only if politicians pile blunder upon blunder upon blunder. The main thing that will kill the Eurozone as all of that claptrap is surging nationalism in countries like France, the UK and the Netherlands, where Europhopic parties like the PVV and UKIP are gaining ever-increasing power. Whatever the outcome from the Greek situation, whether that is Piketty's plea for less austerity or Merkel's for more, Dutch citizens just want to wash their hands of the whole ordeal and forget about the nation of "lazy souflaki-eaters". However, it's not like a good resolution of Greece will make Wilders, LePen and Farrage stop ranting about Europe, it will just move them on to the next problem (such as Italy receiving boatloads of immigrants).
Obviously Greece isn't helping, but I would say most of the damage Greece can do to European unity has already been done, regardless of whether they actually leave the Euro or not: it is quite clear that Europe is not yet a union first, and individual countries second, and political support for moving further towards such a model will be very hard to find. Imho, Greece leaving the union will do only one thing: crash Greece's economy for the next few years, and show that leaving the Euro is not such a happy prospect. No doubt the Europhobes will spin it that they are better off than they would have been if they accepted austerity and stayed in the Euro, but the reality will be misery in Greece whichever way round it happens (unfortunately).
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On July 08 2015 22:33 Alcathous wrote:
True, and right now we can't because our politicians and institutions are too corrupt and made us all too polarized. But if we don't the world will move on without us, and mankind may be fucked forever.
No one is going to listen to a moral appeal of Luxemburg, or Denmark, or Iceland when China can ravage east Asia and win billions. US will keep lowering itself to China's standard to compete, until their people revolt.
Right now, we can't force a European bank to do anything. Even our banks are playing us for a fool because we are all too small and too divided. Even just the financial sector, they hold us hostage and if we don't unite, we will have no democracy. Our politicians right now are even publicly begging the banks to stop lobbying so strongly and give them a break.
For once, I actually agree with you.
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On July 08 2015 22:49 arbiter_md wrote:
Somehow the debts haven't been restructured for other countries in eurozone.
You want to give each country a debt just big enough they can just barely pay it off without losing the trust of the market, but just barely?
Somehow, other countries that had similar problems in 2010 took measures and their budget is more or less fine now. Maybe Greeks were relying to much on debt being restructured all these years?
Even if this were true, which it is not, it isn't working for Greece. So we are going to punish Greece because it doesn't follow our economic models/ideology? Makes no sense.
Portugal, Spain and Ireland would have been better off without austerity. Just take the Netherlands. It also was slowed down by austerity.
Look at Iceland. It kicked out all the banks and financial sector. The whole economy collapsed because of banks gambling and greedy people buying into it. Iceland didn't have the euro. They also voted leftwing and had a referendum on if the taxpayer should bail out all the gamblers that lost. 98% voted 'no' and I know my government was extremely angry because of that because they bailed all these greedy people that found an Icelandic bank on the internet that gave them 0.5% more interest on their savings. So they took out their money and put it in Icelandic banks. Dutch government bailed them out when the banks went bust, and they expected the Icelandic taxpayer to pay for it.
If Iceland was part of the euro, they would be in the same boat now as Greece.
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amazing
thanks for the link
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That little blurb is all very well, but I think debt relief and restructuring is on the table, but ONLY after Greece actually makes reforms so that debt restructuring makes sense. The Greek government has been overspending, is overspending and will continue overspending unless something changes. Cancelling all their debt is an empty solution, because it doesn't address the root problem: they are overspending (on stuff that doesn't help their economy).
Slash pensions (further), remove tax exemptions for tourist resorts and shipping magnates, and most importantly: fix the tax collection mechanism. We're in the 21st century for christ's sake. Even Brazil has managed to get their tax collection mostly in order, and I find it hard to imagine Greece has more problems than Brazil.
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On July 08 2015 16:34 pretender58 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 12:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Also add to the market chaos, the bubble seems to have burst in China. As of typing the Market went down over 8% just in the first few minutes and 43% of the Market is frozen. Effects of that are rather weak on the eurozone as the stock market in China is largely cut off from the rest of the world. Ofc China is slumping which will affect trade, but the KP has previously shown to go very far to prevent economic slowdown.
China will fall back very far I think. Its been growing for years in a row with a very high percentage. Its impossible to keep that up forever,sooner or later there will be a significant fall back. Its needed to make the system healthy again and weed out all the bad investments, then growth can begin again. Think this moment is now. It might even resemble the crisis of the 30,s in amerika. Think it will be close,almost impossible to imagine. This stagnation in china will last for years to come and will effect global economy.
China is ruthless btw,we don't have to expect any help from china in any situation. They only cooperate with the west as long as they can get an advantage out of it. Once they feel strong enough they will change and then confrontation will begin. Hope that moment is still far away.
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On July 08 2015 22:58 c0ldfusion wrote:amazing thanks for the link
Wow, that was worth watching. Thx.
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On July 08 2015 23:01 Rassy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 16:34 pretender58 wrote:On July 08 2015 12:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Also add to the market chaos, the bubble seems to have burst in China. As of typing the Market went down over 8% just in the first few minutes and 43% of the Market is frozen. Effects of that are rather weak on the eurozone as the stock market in China is largely cut off from the rest of the world. Ofc China is slumping which will affect trade, but the KP has previously shown to go very far to prevent economic slowdown. China will fall back very far I think. Its been growing for years in a row with a very high percentage. Its impossible to keep that up forever,sooner or later there will be a significant fall back. Its needed to make the system healthy again and weed out all the bad investments, then growth can begin again. Think this moment is now. It might even resemble the crisis of the 30,s in amerika. Think it will be close,almost impossible to imagine. This stagnation in china will last for years to come and will effect global economy. Hope I am wrong 
I tend to agree. This is going to be a very ugly time for China. I'm actually traveling there this fall for a couple weeks. Should be interesting to say the least.
And looking at the events in Europe and China, I find it very hard to believe reports from American economists (public and private) that the American economy will avoid recession through 2016. Typically the evaporation of trillions of dollars in assets globally affects everyone.
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On July 08 2015 23:01 Acrofales wrote:
That little blurb is all very well, but I think debt relief and restructuring is on the table, but ONLY after Greece actually makes reforms so that debt restructuring makes sense.
So how is it on the table?
Greece has to sign a deal where they are to do more reforms and austerity. Only if they do that then Eurogroup will hand out debt restructuring as they see fit. It will be handed out as a reward. This is the line that has come out of the Eurozone. So it is not to be part of any negotiations or and deal; it is not on the table and it is still a taboo to talk about it.
This means exactly that it is not on the table as it will never be part of a deal. This is the old Eurogroup position. So I don't know how you can say 'it is on the table'.
If it is truly on the table, so part of a possible deal, then EU changed their position. We are all waiting for Merkel to hold a speech and announce that debt restructuring is going to be part of the solution; is needed and offered, giving the green light for a deal Greece can accept.
If this don't happen they all have to find a situation where Greece is still barely inside the euro, barely not broke, barely not in chaos, and see if they can make circumstances on the Greek streets bad enough so that Greece will have absolutely no choice.
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On July 08 2015 23:08 Alcathous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2015 23:01 Acrofales wrote:
That little blurb is all very well, but I think debt relief and restructuring is on the table, but ONLY after Greece actually makes reforms so that debt restructuring makes sense. So how is it on the table? Greece has to sign a deal where they are to do more reforms and austerity. Only if they do that then Eurogroup will hand out debt restructuring as they see fit. It will be handed out as a reward. This is the line that has come out of the Eurozone. So it is not to be part of any negotiations or and deal; it is not on the table and it is still a taboo to talk about it. This means exactly that it is not on the table as it will never be part of a deal. This is the old Eurogroup position. So I don't know how you can say 'it is on the table'. If it is truly on the table, so part of a possible deal, then EU changed their position. We are all waiting for Merkel to hold a speech and announce that debt restructuring is going to be part of the solution; is needed and offered, giving the green light for a deal Greece can accept. If this don't happen they all have to find a situation where Greece is still barely inside the euro, barely not broke, barely not in chaos, and see if they can make circumstances on the Greek streets bad enough so that Greece will have absolutely no choice.
Greece has shown to be utterly unwilling to reform.
You don't give them debt relief without reform having been done because else they will just say No again and go back to their old ways.
How often has this been explained to you...
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EPT
