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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 151

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6214 Posts
July 05 2015 11:04 GMT
#3001
On July 05 2015 19:56 Alcathous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2015 19:49 RvB wrote:
If they vote no what is the use of putting forward the same deal? THe majority of the Greek people just rejected it if that is the case.


It means that gambling junkies Junker/Merkel/Dijsselbloem then have to decide to lose 240 billion, or negotiate a deal Greece can accept. A deal they can afford.

Greece can't afford 'yes' deal. All economists and now even the IMF say so.

No not all economists say so and no the IMF does not say so either. First the reforms of the recue package and then the debt relief is what the IMF says.

One day after Greece became the first developed economy to default on a loan with the International Monetary Fund, the head of the international lender on Wednesday suggested Greece should move to reform its economy before its European creditors give it a break on its debt.

source
Yuljan
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
2196 Posts
July 05 2015 11:04 GMT
#3002
On July 05 2015 19:56 Alcathous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2015 19:49 RvB wrote:
If they vote no what is the use of putting forward the same deal? THe majority of the Greek people just rejected it if that is the case.


It means that gambling junkies Junker/Merkel/Dijsselbloem then have to decide to lose 240 billion, or negotiate a deal Greece can accept. A deal they can afford.

Greece can't afford 'yes' deal. All economists and now even the IMF say so.


Better to lose 240bn now instead of 400bn the next time greece is in a mess. The country is beyond saving and Greece society on a whole needs to go through fundamental changes. As a few people already pointed out, just tweaking a few percentage on the tax rate here and there wont solve anything and in 1-2 years we are gonna be at the start again.
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2394 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-05 11:23:43
July 05 2015 11:23 GMT
#3003
Tax reform doesn't just mean adjusting tax rates. The troika demanded specific measures which were undertaken in Portugal to ensure tax collection (every small shop has to have a certified register; tax benefits for consumers that ask for receipts and introduce their tax ID; reinforcement of the tax authorities). As a result, we have one of the lowest VAT gaps in the EU. Greece has been improving, but it is still pretty bad:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
maartendq
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Belgium3115 Posts
July 05 2015 11:55 GMT
#3004
On July 05 2015 20:23 warding wrote:
Tax reform doesn't just mean adjusting tax rates. The troika demanded specific measures which were undertaken in Portugal to ensure tax collection (every small shop has to have a certified register; tax benefits for consumers that ask for receipts and introduce their tax ID; reinforcement of the tax authorities). As a result, we have one of the lowest VAT gaps in the EU. Greece has been improving, but it is still pretty bad:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

That's rather amazing. Then again, practically all the Portuguese people I've met over the past year (I work for an overarching institution that governs employer taxes of the Belgian construction industry) were very co-operative, wanted to play by the rules and incredibly friendly. A surprising amount of them spoke French rather well too.

Considering the amount of Portuguese, Poles and Romanians active in the Belgian construction industry, there's clearly no lack of ambition of people in less well-off countries to better their situation. I am starting to wonder whether there is a large gap between what the people in those countries actually want compared to what their government delivers, or wants to deliver. Then again, governments are not immune to interest groups trying to pull things their way.
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-05 12:16:14
July 05 2015 12:15 GMT
#3005
On July 05 2015 20:04 Yuljan wrote:

Better to lose 240bn now instead of 400bn the next time greece is in a mess. The country is beyond saving and Greece society on a whole needs to go through fundamental changes. As a few people already pointed out, just tweaking a few percentage on the tax rate here and there wont solve anything and in 1-2 years we are gonna be at the start again.


Their thinking is that it is better to collect interest over 400 billion than over 240 billion.

Europe is offering Greece 50 bn more debt. The Greeks now vote to take on more debt or not.

Seems you have it backwards.
accela
Profile Joined February 2010
Greece314 Posts
July 05 2015 12:45 GMT
#3006
"In Greek Referendum Campaign, a Barrage of Doomsday Ads"

The oligarchs and the whole rotten and corrupt political system are on rampage.
Every single one of them through their privately owned media running a campaign of terrorism for more than a week.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6214 Posts
July 05 2015 12:52 GMT
#3007
On July 05 2015 21:15 Alcathous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2015 20:04 Yuljan wrote:

Better to lose 240bn now instead of 400bn the next time greece is in a mess. The country is beyond saving and Greece society on a whole needs to go through fundamental changes. As a few people already pointed out, just tweaking a few percentage on the tax rate here and there wont solve anything and in 1-2 years we are gonna be at the start again.


Their thinking is that it is better to collect interest over 400 billion than over 240 billion.

Europe is offering Greece 50 bn more debt. The Greeks now vote to take on more debt or not.

Seems you have it backwards.

Yes those criminal interest rates which are lower than some European countries in the periphery can get on their bonds in the market.
Yuljan
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
2196 Posts
July 05 2015 12:56 GMT
#3008
That makes no sense since the creditors are paying themself the interest... Why would anyone risk the 240bn for some measly below market standard interest payments? You know that this money can be invested in bonds from countries that are actually producing something at higher interest rates instead? Giving the money to Greece only has a slightly higher NPV than burning it all. The only reason money is being thrown at Greece is because everyone is desperate that the Eurozone/EU is breaking apart. The only reason Greece gets support is because of political reasons.

"Much of Europe’s debate over Greece focuses on whether the country deserves even more leeway than it has already been granted. Greece’s creditors slashed interest rates on their loans to well below market rates. The interest payments on many of those loans have been deferred until 2022. In addition, the ECB and national central banks agreed to return the profits they make on Greek bonds to Athens, provided the government sticks to its commitments. Greece’s interest burden equaled about 4% of its economic output in 2014. When adjusting for the profit refunded to Greece and other measures, however, the interest burden was just 2.6%, according to researchers at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. That compares to 4.7% for Italy and 3.3% for Spain."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-board-member-says-greece-must-repay-debt-restructuring-talks-possible-1422261074


accela
Profile Joined February 2010
Greece314 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-05 13:10:47
July 05 2015 13:08 GMT
#3009
The problem with the rhetoric about interest rates is that there is a major difference between a country that has access to the markets and a broke country that does not.

8% as it was at the first bailout (and some people on this forum were crying loud how that was very low), or 4% or no interest rates at all makes absolutely no difference if it's very impossible to have access to the markets or, even worse, pay it back through high primary surpluses.

The debt is unsustainable, by now those who insist arguing about it they just beating a dead horse, everybody knows it and it's time to agree for a debt relief and ofc enough with the idiotic austerity deforms.
-
Ireland’s austerity ‘success’ is no model for Greece
+ Show Spoiler +
GREECE is being told to follow Ireland’s crisis solution of harsh austerity and acceptance of bank-and-bailout debt. This narrative conveniently ignores that the Irish ‘recovery’ has been built on major human rights violations and the undermining of long-term social and economic development.

Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.
Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.

There is a dark side to Ireland’s ‘success’ that requires discussion about the most effective responses to financial and fiscal crises.

The eight austerity budgets between 2008 and 2014 involved €18.5bn in public-spending cuts and €12bn in tax-raising (revenue) measures. Key public services, in particular health and housing, have been weakened as a result.

Public service staff have been reduced by 10% (37,500). Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments. One-third of all children admitted to hospital suffering with mental-health difficulties have been put in adult wards and the waiting lists for youth mental-health services have increased to 2,818 people.

Funding for local authority housing was cut from €1.3bn, in 2007, to just €83m, in 2013. This meant a loss of 25,000 social-housing units. This is a major contribution to the homelessness crisis, with 1,000 children and 500 families now living in emergency accommodation in Dublin. Because of the decision to prioritise bank recapitalisation and developer debt write-down, homeowner mortgage arrears have escalated.

There are 37,000 homeowners in mortgage arrears of over 720 days, and legal repossession notices were issued to 50,000 homeowners.

The cuts to welfare have had devastating impacts.Affected areas include lone-parent supports, child benefit, youth payments, fuel, back-to-school clothing and footwear, rent supplement, and disability and carers’ allowance.

But charges were introduced where they did not exist before — putting a further burden on lower-income households. These charges are ‘regressive’, in that they were not tailored to income level. These include water, property, school transport, prescription, A&E and chemotherapy charges. Fees have effectively been reintroduced at third-level (increasing from €1,000 to €3,000). This will have major implications for participation rates from lower-income households.

Funding for local community development, youth organisations, drugs prevention, family support, and to combat rural and urban disadvantage was disproportionally hit. Programme funding was reduced by 50%.

We are likely to see the long-term social impacts of these cuts in the further exclusion from the labour force of youths in disadvantaged areas. Issues of drugs and crime will surely worsen.

An EU report on the impact of austerity showed that the quality of secondary- and primary-level education has also been reduced, with fewer teachers, rationalisation of teacher/student support services, and the abolition of school grants.

The report links early school-leaving to austerity measures, which are highly concentrated in low-income areas. This, along with the cuts in funding to third-level, will seriously damage our education system, the core of the country’s economic development.

Hundreds of thousands of families and children have been pushed into poverty. The child-poverty rate rose from 18%, in 2008, to 29.1%, in 2013.The deprivation rate increased from 26.9%, in 2012, to 30.5%, in 2013, while for lone-parent families it has risen to 63%. Food poverty affects 600,000 (up 13.2%). Austerity has also devastated rural areas and small towns, with unemployment levels remaining much higher in the south-east.

In one of the most disturbing pieces of research into the impact of austerity, UCC and the National Suicide Research Foundation found an increase in self-harm rates of 31% in men, and 22% in women, between 2008 and 2012, while the male suicide rate is 57% higher (that’s 500 additional deaths). They cited a number of factors, including reductions in public expenditure, cuts to welfare, substantial healthcare cuts, falling house prices and personal debt.

Capital expenditure on important public infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, roads, transport, broadband, water and wastewater was drastically reduced, by 60%, between 2008 and 2014.

Such spending on infrastructure is the bedrock of sustainable and competitive economies, and the lost decade of investment in these will leave Ireland’s economy much more vulnerable into the future.

Don’t forget, also, €17bn of our national pension reserve — which was available to fund infrastructure development and future pensions — was put into the bailout.

The commitment by Irish governments to pay all the bank- and crisis-related debt will damage our long-term social and economic development, and result in ongoing crises in health, housing, and mental health, and in rising poverty and inequality. This is because funding that should be going to these much-needed public services will, instead, be going on debt interest payments. Debt interest payments rose from €2bn (3.4% of tax revenue), in 2007, to a staggering €7.5bn, or 18% of all tax revenue, in 2014. These interest payments will enforce a form of permanent austerity in the coming decade.

Then, there is the often-forgotten issue of forced emigration. Almost 10% of Irish young people emigrated during the recession and emigration worsened as austerity intensified. It rose from 20,000, in 2009, to 50,000, in 2013. Without emigration, the unemployment rate would be 20%.

Finally, almost half of Ireland’s dramatic increase in GDP is from multinational activity, which does not take place in Ireland.

Thus, much of Ireland’s growth is based on facilitating some of the most profitable global corporations and financial services in reducing the tax they otherwise would have to pay to countries across the world. This is an unethical, unfair, and ultimately unsustainable form of economic activity.

It is clear, as highlighted by a recent assessment by the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission, that austerity hit the most vulnerable and marginalised the hardest in Ireland. But there was, and remains, a choice about how countries such as Ireland and Greece, and the Troika, respond to debt and financial crises. Debt relief is an important option, as is taxing the wealthy, financial services or higher incomes, rather than taking it from public services, the poor and middle-income earners. The Troika and Irish governments favoured the latter and we can see the human misery and economic damage caused, as a result.

The Irish austerity-and-recovery model is being misrepresented on the international stage and should not be followed by Greece or other crises countries.

The Irish case actually points to the human and economic necessity of debt relief and alternative approaches to fiscal crises.

Dr Rory Hearne is a lecturer in the department of geography and faculty of social sciences at Maynooth University
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21698 Posts
July 05 2015 13:57 GMT
#3010
On July 05 2015 22:08 accela wrote:
The problem with the rhetoric about interest rates is that there is a major difference between a country that has access to the markets and a broke country that does not.

8% as it was at the first bailout (and some people on this forum were crying loud how that was very low), or 4% or no interest rates at all makes absolutely no difference if it's very impossible to have access to the markets or, even worse, pay it back through high primary surpluses.

The debt is unsustainable, by now those who insist arguing about it they just beating a dead horse, everybody knows it and it's time to agree for a debt relief and ofc enough with the idiotic austerity deforms.
-
Ireland’s austerity ‘success’ is no model for Greece
+ Show Spoiler +
GREECE is being told to follow Ireland’s crisis solution of harsh austerity and acceptance of bank-and-bailout debt. This narrative conveniently ignores that the Irish ‘recovery’ has been built on major human rights violations and the undermining of long-term social and economic development.

Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.
Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.

There is a dark side to Ireland’s ‘success’ that requires discussion about the most effective responses to financial and fiscal crises.

The eight austerity budgets between 2008 and 2014 involved €18.5bn in public-spending cuts and €12bn in tax-raising (revenue) measures. Key public services, in particular health and housing, have been weakened as a result.

Public service staff have been reduced by 10% (37,500). Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments. One-third of all children admitted to hospital suffering with mental-health difficulties have been put in adult wards and the waiting lists for youth mental-health services have increased to 2,818 people.

Funding for local authority housing was cut from €1.3bn, in 2007, to just €83m, in 2013. This meant a loss of 25,000 social-housing units. This is a major contribution to the homelessness crisis, with 1,000 children and 500 families now living in emergency accommodation in Dublin. Because of the decision to prioritise bank recapitalisation and developer debt write-down, homeowner mortgage arrears have escalated.

There are 37,000 homeowners in mortgage arrears of over 720 days, and legal repossession notices were issued to 50,000 homeowners.

The cuts to welfare have had devastating impacts.Affected areas include lone-parent supports, child benefit, youth payments, fuel, back-to-school clothing and footwear, rent supplement, and disability and carers’ allowance.

But charges were introduced where they did not exist before — putting a further burden on lower-income households. These charges are ‘regressive’, in that they were not tailored to income level. These include water, property, school transport, prescription, A&E and chemotherapy charges. Fees have effectively been reintroduced at third-level (increasing from €1,000 to €3,000). This will have major implications for participation rates from lower-income households.

Funding for local community development, youth organisations, drugs prevention, family support, and to combat rural and urban disadvantage was disproportionally hit. Programme funding was reduced by 50%.

We are likely to see the long-term social impacts of these cuts in the further exclusion from the labour force of youths in disadvantaged areas. Issues of drugs and crime will surely worsen.

An EU report on the impact of austerity showed that the quality of secondary- and primary-level education has also been reduced, with fewer teachers, rationalisation of teacher/student support services, and the abolition of school grants.

The report links early school-leaving to austerity measures, which are highly concentrated in low-income areas. This, along with the cuts in funding to third-level, will seriously damage our education system, the core of the country’s economic development.

Hundreds of thousands of families and children have been pushed into poverty. The child-poverty rate rose from 18%, in 2008, to 29.1%, in 2013.The deprivation rate increased from 26.9%, in 2012, to 30.5%, in 2013, while for lone-parent families it has risen to 63%. Food poverty affects 600,000 (up 13.2%). Austerity has also devastated rural areas and small towns, with unemployment levels remaining much higher in the south-east.

In one of the most disturbing pieces of research into the impact of austerity, UCC and the National Suicide Research Foundation found an increase in self-harm rates of 31% in men, and 22% in women, between 2008 and 2012, while the male suicide rate is 57% higher (that’s 500 additional deaths). They cited a number of factors, including reductions in public expenditure, cuts to welfare, substantial healthcare cuts, falling house prices and personal debt.

Capital expenditure on important public infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, roads, transport, broadband, water and wastewater was drastically reduced, by 60%, between 2008 and 2014.

Such spending on infrastructure is the bedrock of sustainable and competitive economies, and the lost decade of investment in these will leave Ireland’s economy much more vulnerable into the future.

Don’t forget, also, €17bn of our national pension reserve — which was available to fund infrastructure development and future pensions — was put into the bailout.

The commitment by Irish governments to pay all the bank- and crisis-related debt will damage our long-term social and economic development, and result in ongoing crises in health, housing, and mental health, and in rising poverty and inequality. This is because funding that should be going to these much-needed public services will, instead, be going on debt interest payments. Debt interest payments rose from €2bn (3.4% of tax revenue), in 2007, to a staggering €7.5bn, or 18% of all tax revenue, in 2014. These interest payments will enforce a form of permanent austerity in the coming decade.

Then, there is the often-forgotten issue of forced emigration. Almost 10% of Irish young people emigrated during the recession and emigration worsened as austerity intensified. It rose from 20,000, in 2009, to 50,000, in 2013. Without emigration, the unemployment rate would be 20%.

Finally, almost half of Ireland’s dramatic increase in GDP is from multinational activity, which does not take place in Ireland.

Thus, much of Ireland’s growth is based on facilitating some of the most profitable global corporations and financial services in reducing the tax they otherwise would have to pay to countries across the world. This is an unethical, unfair, and ultimately unsustainable form of economic activity.

It is clear, as highlighted by a recent assessment by the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission, that austerity hit the most vulnerable and marginalised the hardest in Ireland. But there was, and remains, a choice about how countries such as Ireland and Greece, and the Troika, respond to debt and financial crises. Debt relief is an important option, as is taxing the wealthy, financial services or higher incomes, rather than taking it from public services, the poor and middle-income earners. The Troika and Irish governments favoured the latter and we can see the human misery and economic damage caused, as a result.

The Irish austerity-and-recovery model is being misrepresented on the international stage and should not be followed by Greece or other crises countries.

The Irish case actually points to the human and economic necessity of debt relief and alternative approaches to fiscal crises.

Dr Rory Hearne is a lecturer in the department of geography and faculty of social sciences at Maynooth University

Just debt relief isn't going to fix a thing. The Eurozone wants you to fix your economy first and will then consider debt relief because if we provide relief first Greece will simply not fix its economy.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
accela
Profile Joined February 2010
Greece314 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-05 14:31:23
July 05 2015 14:21 GMT
#3011
On July 05 2015 22:57 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2015 22:08 accela wrote:
The problem with the rhetoric about interest rates is that there is a major difference between a country that has access to the markets and a broke country that does not.

8% as it was at the first bailout (and some people on this forum were crying loud how that was very low), or 4% or no interest rates at all makes absolutely no difference if it's very impossible to have access to the markets or, even worse, pay it back through high primary surpluses.

The debt is unsustainable, by now those who insist arguing about it they just beating a dead horse, everybody knows it and it's time to agree for a debt relief and ofc enough with the idiotic austerity deforms.
-
Ireland’s austerity ‘success’ is no model for Greece
+ Show Spoiler +
GREECE is being told to follow Ireland’s crisis solution of harsh austerity and acceptance of bank-and-bailout debt. This narrative conveniently ignores that the Irish ‘recovery’ has been built on major human rights violations and the undermining of long-term social and economic development.

Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.
Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.

There is a dark side to Ireland’s ‘success’ that requires discussion about the most effective responses to financial and fiscal crises.

The eight austerity budgets between 2008 and 2014 involved €18.5bn in public-spending cuts and €12bn in tax-raising (revenue) measures. Key public services, in particular health and housing, have been weakened as a result.

Public service staff have been reduced by 10% (37,500). Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments. One-third of all children admitted to hospital suffering with mental-health difficulties have been put in adult wards and the waiting lists for youth mental-health services have increased to 2,818 people.

Funding for local authority housing was cut from €1.3bn, in 2007, to just €83m, in 2013. This meant a loss of 25,000 social-housing units. This is a major contribution to the homelessness crisis, with 1,000 children and 500 families now living in emergency accommodation in Dublin. Because of the decision to prioritise bank recapitalisation and developer debt write-down, homeowner mortgage arrears have escalated.

There are 37,000 homeowners in mortgage arrears of over 720 days, and legal repossession notices were issued to 50,000 homeowners.

The cuts to welfare have had devastating impacts.Affected areas include lone-parent supports, child benefit, youth payments, fuel, back-to-school clothing and footwear, rent supplement, and disability and carers’ allowance.

But charges were introduced where they did not exist before — putting a further burden on lower-income households. These charges are ‘regressive’, in that they were not tailored to income level. These include water, property, school transport, prescription, A&E and chemotherapy charges. Fees have effectively been reintroduced at third-level (increasing from €1,000 to €3,000). This will have major implications for participation rates from lower-income households.

Funding for local community development, youth organisations, drugs prevention, family support, and to combat rural and urban disadvantage was disproportionally hit. Programme funding was reduced by 50%.

We are likely to see the long-term social impacts of these cuts in the further exclusion from the labour force of youths in disadvantaged areas. Issues of drugs and crime will surely worsen.

An EU report on the impact of austerity showed that the quality of secondary- and primary-level education has also been reduced, with fewer teachers, rationalisation of teacher/student support services, and the abolition of school grants.

The report links early school-leaving to austerity measures, which are highly concentrated in low-income areas. This, along with the cuts in funding to third-level, will seriously damage our education system, the core of the country’s economic development.

Hundreds of thousands of families and children have been pushed into poverty. The child-poverty rate rose from 18%, in 2008, to 29.1%, in 2013.The deprivation rate increased from 26.9%, in 2012, to 30.5%, in 2013, while for lone-parent families it has risen to 63%. Food poverty affects 600,000 (up 13.2%). Austerity has also devastated rural areas and small towns, with unemployment levels remaining much higher in the south-east.

In one of the most disturbing pieces of research into the impact of austerity, UCC and the National Suicide Research Foundation found an increase in self-harm rates of 31% in men, and 22% in women, between 2008 and 2012, while the male suicide rate is 57% higher (that’s 500 additional deaths). They cited a number of factors, including reductions in public expenditure, cuts to welfare, substantial healthcare cuts, falling house prices and personal debt.

Capital expenditure on important public infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, roads, transport, broadband, water and wastewater was drastically reduced, by 60%, between 2008 and 2014.

Such spending on infrastructure is the bedrock of sustainable and competitive economies, and the lost decade of investment in these will leave Ireland’s economy much more vulnerable into the future.

Don’t forget, also, €17bn of our national pension reserve — which was available to fund infrastructure development and future pensions — was put into the bailout.

The commitment by Irish governments to pay all the bank- and crisis-related debt will damage our long-term social and economic development, and result in ongoing crises in health, housing, and mental health, and in rising poverty and inequality. This is because funding that should be going to these much-needed public services will, instead, be going on debt interest payments. Debt interest payments rose from €2bn (3.4% of tax revenue), in 2007, to a staggering €7.5bn, or 18% of all tax revenue, in 2014. These interest payments will enforce a form of permanent austerity in the coming decade.

Then, there is the often-forgotten issue of forced emigration. Almost 10% of Irish young people emigrated during the recession and emigration worsened as austerity intensified. It rose from 20,000, in 2009, to 50,000, in 2013. Without emigration, the unemployment rate would be 20%.

Finally, almost half of Ireland’s dramatic increase in GDP is from multinational activity, which does not take place in Ireland.

Thus, much of Ireland’s growth is based on facilitating some of the most profitable global corporations and financial services in reducing the tax they otherwise would have to pay to countries across the world. This is an unethical, unfair, and ultimately unsustainable form of economic activity.

It is clear, as highlighted by a recent assessment by the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission, that austerity hit the most vulnerable and marginalised the hardest in Ireland. But there was, and remains, a choice about how countries such as Ireland and Greece, and the Troika, respond to debt and financial crises. Debt relief is an important option, as is taxing the wealthy, financial services or higher incomes, rather than taking it from public services, the poor and middle-income earners. The Troika and Irish governments favoured the latter and we can see the human misery and economic damage caused, as a result.

The Irish austerity-and-recovery model is being misrepresented on the international stage and should not be followed by Greece or other crises countries.

The Irish case actually points to the human and economic necessity of debt relief and alternative approaches to fiscal crises.

Dr Rory Hearne is a lecturer in the department of geography and faculty of social sciences at Maynooth University

Just debt relief isn't going to fix a thing. The Eurozone wants you to fix your economy first and will then consider debt relief because if we provide relief first Greece will simply not fix its economy.

Well you are wrong. The debt sustainability is a central matter of "fixing the economy" and that's not just a countries economy but goes down to a simple bank loan.
First you make the debt sustainable and only then more loans if any.
Otherwise there would simply be absolutely no investors who would think for a second to invest to a business or, even worse, a whole country that it's known 100% that very soon, in fact much sooner than the time he would get some of his assets back, would be in danger of default once again.

Also nobody denied true reforms, it's the austerity deforms that make no sense at all.
-
"A Short Story About The Greek Credit Crisis: A European Morality Tale"
+ Show Spoiler +
Let's imagine a situation. Let's imagine that times have been good for you and you decided to buy a house, a house that you always dreamed of, a place that you can call home. The only problem is that this place is a bit pricey, certainly a stretch financially but what the hell, times are good, your credit rating is just fine and the guys at the bank just love you.

Alas, the economy takes a downturn, your job isn't as secure as it used to be and the boss is muttering darkly about downsizing and wage cuts. Now those mortgage payment instead of being steep become vertical so you go to the bank and decide to ask them if some kind of deal can be made. They look at you aghast, they had no idea that you are unable to meet your financial commitments, otherwise why would they have sent you all those credit card applications or phoned so insistently wondering if you want a loan for a new car/holiday/kid's dental work/shopping/home extension. They are shocked, shocked to hear that you have been so profligate with their hard earned cash, how on earth could you have deceived them in such an underhand manner?

But rather than lose a long standing customer (and a house they'd never sale for money you paid for it) they decide to offer you a loan to cover your debts. The problem is that this loan comes with some pretty severe conditions, no more outings, eating in restaurants is a thing of the past, also the kids really should leave home, they're a drain on your resources and frankly, granny's presence puts the family budget over the edge.

Grudgingly, you accept the terms, what else can you do? The problem is that the job market is still not getting better, the boss is demanding ever greater "flexibility" when it comes to salaries and that loan you just took out to cover the mortgage is still just beyond your pay grade. No matter how low the interest payments are, they are piling up and up.. So you go back to the bank and explain the situation, maybe rather than foreclose they could be persuaded to cut the total loan and allow you to pay, at least some of it whilst keeping a roof over your head. The mere suggestion is enough to make them choke on their mid-morning lattes and you get the impression that all is lost.

Yet, these are finance professionals and they know that a foreclosure would not only look bad for the bank, it would also not do their careers any good at all so they come up with a compromise solution. this time they'll issue you a credit card to draw upon when you need to pay the next installment of the loan you took out to cover your initial mortgage. Your kid's college fund will have to go, and that pension plan you took out is way too extravagant for a family of YOUR means. While you look dumb struck, they add a final condition,"you have to sell the family car". But how will you get to work or find a better job without a car? "No", they say, "a car is simply a luxury you can no longer afford, the price of petrol alone means it's not a viable option. Have you considered cycling to work?"

Without a car you cannot earn enough to pay off the credit card installment which you needed to pay off the loan you took out from the bank to pay back the mortgage you had with them. You refuse, saying the conditions are unacceptable.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21698 Posts
July 05 2015 14:47 GMT
#3012
On July 05 2015 23:21 accela wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2015 22:57 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 05 2015 22:08 accela wrote:
The problem with the rhetoric about interest rates is that there is a major difference between a country that has access to the markets and a broke country that does not.

8% as it was at the first bailout (and some people on this forum were crying loud how that was very low), or 4% or no interest rates at all makes absolutely no difference if it's very impossible to have access to the markets or, even worse, pay it back through high primary surpluses.

The debt is unsustainable, by now those who insist arguing about it they just beating a dead horse, everybody knows it and it's time to agree for a debt relief and ofc enough with the idiotic austerity deforms.
-
Ireland’s austerity ‘success’ is no model for Greece
+ Show Spoiler +
GREECE is being told to follow Ireland’s crisis solution of harsh austerity and acceptance of bank-and-bailout debt. This narrative conveniently ignores that the Irish ‘recovery’ has been built on major human rights violations and the undermining of long-term social and economic development.

Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.
Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments.

There is a dark side to Ireland’s ‘success’ that requires discussion about the most effective responses to financial and fiscal crises.

The eight austerity budgets between 2008 and 2014 involved €18.5bn in public-spending cuts and €12bn in tax-raising (revenue) measures. Key public services, in particular health and housing, have been weakened as a result.

Public service staff have been reduced by 10% (37,500). Health spending has been cut by 27% since 2008, resulting in an 81% increase in the number of patients waiting on trolleys and chairs in emergency departments. One-third of all children admitted to hospital suffering with mental-health difficulties have been put in adult wards and the waiting lists for youth mental-health services have increased to 2,818 people.

Funding for local authority housing was cut from €1.3bn, in 2007, to just €83m, in 2013. This meant a loss of 25,000 social-housing units. This is a major contribution to the homelessness crisis, with 1,000 children and 500 families now living in emergency accommodation in Dublin. Because of the decision to prioritise bank recapitalisation and developer debt write-down, homeowner mortgage arrears have escalated.

There are 37,000 homeowners in mortgage arrears of over 720 days, and legal repossession notices were issued to 50,000 homeowners.

The cuts to welfare have had devastating impacts.Affected areas include lone-parent supports, child benefit, youth payments, fuel, back-to-school clothing and footwear, rent supplement, and disability and carers’ allowance.

But charges were introduced where they did not exist before — putting a further burden on lower-income households. These charges are ‘regressive’, in that they were not tailored to income level. These include water, property, school transport, prescription, A&E and chemotherapy charges. Fees have effectively been reintroduced at third-level (increasing from €1,000 to €3,000). This will have major implications for participation rates from lower-income households.

Funding for local community development, youth organisations, drugs prevention, family support, and to combat rural and urban disadvantage was disproportionally hit. Programme funding was reduced by 50%.

We are likely to see the long-term social impacts of these cuts in the further exclusion from the labour force of youths in disadvantaged areas. Issues of drugs and crime will surely worsen.

An EU report on the impact of austerity showed that the quality of secondary- and primary-level education has also been reduced, with fewer teachers, rationalisation of teacher/student support services, and the abolition of school grants.

The report links early school-leaving to austerity measures, which are highly concentrated in low-income areas. This, along with the cuts in funding to third-level, will seriously damage our education system, the core of the country’s economic development.

Hundreds of thousands of families and children have been pushed into poverty. The child-poverty rate rose from 18%, in 2008, to 29.1%, in 2013.The deprivation rate increased from 26.9%, in 2012, to 30.5%, in 2013, while for lone-parent families it has risen to 63%. Food poverty affects 600,000 (up 13.2%). Austerity has also devastated rural areas and small towns, with unemployment levels remaining much higher in the south-east.

In one of the most disturbing pieces of research into the impact of austerity, UCC and the National Suicide Research Foundation found an increase in self-harm rates of 31% in men, and 22% in women, between 2008 and 2012, while the male suicide rate is 57% higher (that’s 500 additional deaths). They cited a number of factors, including reductions in public expenditure, cuts to welfare, substantial healthcare cuts, falling house prices and personal debt.

Capital expenditure on important public infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, roads, transport, broadband, water and wastewater was drastically reduced, by 60%, between 2008 and 2014.

Such spending on infrastructure is the bedrock of sustainable and competitive economies, and the lost decade of investment in these will leave Ireland’s economy much more vulnerable into the future.

Don’t forget, also, €17bn of our national pension reserve — which was available to fund infrastructure development and future pensions — was put into the bailout.

The commitment by Irish governments to pay all the bank- and crisis-related debt will damage our long-term social and economic development, and result in ongoing crises in health, housing, and mental health, and in rising poverty and inequality. This is because funding that should be going to these much-needed public services will, instead, be going on debt interest payments. Debt interest payments rose from €2bn (3.4% of tax revenue), in 2007, to a staggering €7.5bn, or 18% of all tax revenue, in 2014. These interest payments will enforce a form of permanent austerity in the coming decade.

Then, there is the often-forgotten issue of forced emigration. Almost 10% of Irish young people emigrated during the recession and emigration worsened as austerity intensified. It rose from 20,000, in 2009, to 50,000, in 2013. Without emigration, the unemployment rate would be 20%.

Finally, almost half of Ireland’s dramatic increase in GDP is from multinational activity, which does not take place in Ireland.

Thus, much of Ireland’s growth is based on facilitating some of the most profitable global corporations and financial services in reducing the tax they otherwise would have to pay to countries across the world. This is an unethical, unfair, and ultimately unsustainable form of economic activity.

It is clear, as highlighted by a recent assessment by the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission, that austerity hit the most vulnerable and marginalised the hardest in Ireland. But there was, and remains, a choice about how countries such as Ireland and Greece, and the Troika, respond to debt and financial crises. Debt relief is an important option, as is taxing the wealthy, financial services or higher incomes, rather than taking it from public services, the poor and middle-income earners. The Troika and Irish governments favoured the latter and we can see the human misery and economic damage caused, as a result.

The Irish austerity-and-recovery model is being misrepresented on the international stage and should not be followed by Greece or other crises countries.

The Irish case actually points to the human and economic necessity of debt relief and alternative approaches to fiscal crises.

Dr Rory Hearne is a lecturer in the department of geography and faculty of social sciences at Maynooth University

Just debt relief isn't going to fix a thing. The Eurozone wants you to fix your economy first and will then consider debt relief because if we provide relief first Greece will simply not fix its economy.

Well you are wrong. The debt sustainability is a central matter of "fixing the economy" and that's not just a countries economy but goes down to a simple bank loan.
First you make the debt sustainable and only then more loans if any.
Otherwise there would simply be absolutely no investors who would think for a second to invest to a business or, even worse, a whole country that it's known 100% that very soon, in fact much sooner than the time he would get some of his assets back, would be in danger of default once again.

Also nobody denied true reforms, it's the austerity deforms that make no sense at all.
-
"A Short Story About The Greek Credit Crisis: A European Morality Tale"
+ Show Spoiler +
Let's imagine a situation. Let's imagine that times have been good for you and you decided to buy a house, a house that you always dreamed of, a place that you can call home. The only problem is that this place is a bit pricey, certainly a stretch financially but what the hell, times are good, your credit rating is just fine and the guys at the bank just love you.

Alas, the economy takes a downturn, your job isn't as secure as it used to be and the boss is muttering darkly about downsizing and wage cuts. Now those mortgage payment instead of being steep become vertical so you go to the bank and decide to ask them if some kind of deal can be made. They look at you aghast, they had no idea that you are unable to meet your financial commitments, otherwise why would they have sent you all those credit card applications or phoned so insistently wondering if you want a loan for a new car/holiday/kid's dental work/shopping/home extension. They are shocked, shocked to hear that you have been so profligate with their hard earned cash, how on earth could you have deceived them in such an underhand manner?

But rather than lose a long standing customer (and a house they'd never sale for money you paid for it) they decide to offer you a loan to cover your debts. The problem is that this loan comes with some pretty severe conditions, no more outings, eating in restaurants is a thing of the past, also the kids really should leave home, they're a drain on your resources and frankly, granny's presence puts the family budget over the edge.

Grudgingly, you accept the terms, what else can you do? The problem is that the job market is still not getting better, the boss is demanding ever greater "flexibility" when it comes to salaries and that loan you just took out to cover the mortgage is still just beyond your pay grade. No matter how low the interest payments are, they are piling up and up.. So you go back to the bank and explain the situation, maybe rather than foreclose they could be persuaded to cut the total loan and allow you to pay, at least some of it whilst keeping a roof over your head. The mere suggestion is enough to make them choke on their mid-morning lattes and you get the impression that all is lost.

Yet, these are finance professionals and they know that a foreclosure would not only look bad for the bank, it would also not do their careers any good at all so they come up with a compromise solution. this time they'll issue you a credit card to draw upon when you need to pay the next installment of the loan you took out to cover your initial mortgage. Your kid's college fund will have to go, and that pension plan you took out is way too extravagant for a family of YOUR means. While you look dumb struck, they add a final condition,"you have to sell the family car". But how will you get to work or find a better job without a car? "No", they say, "a car is simply a luxury you can no longer afford, the price of petrol alone means it's not a viable option. Have you considered cycling to work?"

Without a car you cannot earn enough to pay off the credit card installment which you needed to pay off the loan you took out from the bank to pay back the mortgage you had with them. You refuse, saying the conditions are unacceptable.

What is that story supposed to show? that the Eurozone is right in what they are doing? because that's what it tells me.

Greece has a bloated public sector that is leeching money from the private section. It has no significant exports. Removing the debt does nothing to change that and will not fix Greece's long term situation.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
July 05 2015 15:00 GMT
#3013
Snapchat has a channel for the Greek referendum, hooray for social media! (I'm not quite sure why...)
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
phantomlancer23
Profile Joined May 2013
730 Posts
July 05 2015 15:05 GMT
#3014
Tsipras in 1 hour will receive a strong and clear order from the Greek people to break up with euro and EU.If he ll ignore this order the people will eat him alive and he ll have the fate of papandreou and samaras.No matter what the traitors say even if the NO is 40% is the future power in GREECE.The YES is a product of blackmailing and cant be expressed politically.The powers who will raise from the NO will be the future goverment.

PS Adios protestantoslaves
SkelA
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
Macedonia13032 Posts
July 05 2015 15:26 GMT
#3015
Well whoever has money in the banks will vote for YES and those who are poor will vote NO.

Lets see if Greek ppl are poor as they show themselfs or they have something to lose in the next few hours.
Stork and KHAN fan till 2012 ...
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21698 Posts
July 05 2015 15:30 GMT
#3016
On July 06 2015 00:26 SkelA wrote:
Well whoever has money in the banks will vote for YES and those who are poor will vote NO.

Lets see if Greek ppl are poor as they show themselfs or they have something to lose in the next few hours.

Or maybe they are poor and vote yet because Defaulting will make it even worse for them.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
July 05 2015 15:44 GMT
#3017
Gorsameth, delusional fellow countrymen people like you make it so that Dijsselbloem's hands are tied and that we end up losing a lot of our money. De Jager promised all money going to Greece will come back with a profit. Dijsselbloem is still towing this line. He wants a profit. He gambles all our money by daring Greece to default by not offering a deal where Greece pays the debts it can.

Because of people like you he and Rutte are too scared to go to the voter and tell them they were greedy, gambled and lost some of our money.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21698 Posts
July 05 2015 15:53 GMT
#3018
On July 06 2015 00:44 Alcathous wrote:
Gorsameth, delusional fellow countrymen people like you make it so that Dijsselbloem's hands are tied and that we end up losing a lot of our money. De Jager promised all money going to Greece will come back with a profit. Dijsselbloem is still towing this line. He wants a profit. He gambles all our money by daring Greece to default by not offering a deal where Greece pays the debts it can.

Because of people like you he and Rutte are too scared to go to the voter and tell them they were greedy, gambled and lost some of our money.

You know what happens when Greece gets a new amazing deal? Italy will want one to. and Portugal will want one ect ect.

The Eurozone is not just being firm because of public opinion (tho it certainly plays a part). It is being firm because otherwise everyone else will come screaming for free money as well.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2394 Posts
July 05 2015 15:59 GMT
#3019
Portugal doesn't need a new deal. We are financing ourselves in the markets and paying back the loans in advance due to lower rates from the market. That is, until some new politicians fuck up our country again.
Djzapz
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Canada10681 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-05 16:24:29
July 05 2015 16:02 GMT
#3020
So many people seem to act like there's a cut and dry way to go and someone can flick a switch and fix everybody's problems, when in reality there's a vast network of intertwined and conflicting interests at play, and whatever you do somebody will lose. A lot of people will lose. The YES won't fix shit, the NO won't fix shit, and no matter what happens, it'll get better before it gets worse and it'll take decades.

It's weird to me that the Greeks spend so much time being mad at supranational structures when really the problem came from inside. And while austerity measures are shit, there's no real solution than to crash and rebuild. Honestly what's the alternative, the banks keep lending money? I don't understand -_-.

Austerity is shit but stimulus won't happen with Greece's unwillingness to deal with the anti-tax culture and all that.
"My incompetence with power tools had been increasing exponentially over the course of 20 years spent inhaling experimental oven cleaners"
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