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Vivax
22414 Posts
On February 27 2022 22:57 farvacola wrote: You’re exactly the kind of person Putin hoped was in charge when he started this thing. It’s nice to see he was wrong. Correct, I don't feel obliged to interfere in foreign affairs to the point I'd sacrifice the entire world population for it. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14209 Posts
Mark that with the widespread proliferation of modern NATO man portable missiles that were designed for the specific scenario and this specific line of tanks and aircraft. Russia is not following the doctrines of the soviet union or what the united States showed was so successful in Iraq. | ||
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farvacola
United States18869 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:05 Vivax wrote: Correct, I don't feel obliged to interfere in foreign affairs to the point I'd sacrifice the entire world population for it. The Ghost of Neville Chamberlain agrees with you, you’re in great company! | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:02 Jockmcplop wrote: Seems like a desperate, irrational move on Putin's part tbh. There is no actual reason for him to do this other than posturing or some genuine will to see the world destroyed. There are many, many cards to be played before nuclear war is a thing. It's definitely posturing (well, to the extent that anything can be definite right now). But think about how some of the things that are being said by European countries might be seen if you were on the receiving end. It's a statement of "don't get too carried away and set dangerous events in motion." | ||
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farvacola
United States18869 Posts
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
On February 27 2022 22:40 Dav1oN wrote: Update on Kharkiv situation, Ukrainian Army/Police/National guard repelled the attack. It's relatively silent at the moment in the center. We have a reports of many casualties from russian side, some of their soldiers surrendered Glad to hear that it is easier there now, even if for a moment. Hopefully you and others there can get some rest now. | ||
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ggrrg
Bulgaria2716 Posts
On February 27 2022 22:53 KobraKay wrote: apologies for my ignorance regarding military and real world warfare tacticts, but if those numbers are accurate, even accounting for defenders advantage preparation wise, it seems Ukraine is a very strong country military wise, which is something i wasnt expecting. so to my untrained eye, either the casualties on the ukrainian side are even more massive, or there must be some non disclosed "help" doing some magic, no? or these are the sort of numbers to be expected in such an invasion? The magic actually has been disclosed: Javelins Russia is sending mostly Tech from the 70s into combat. Inbetween accidents, breakdowns, supply issues and opponents armed with proper handheld anti-armor weapons, one can expect high amount of vehicle losses. | ||
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Dav1oN
Ukraine3164 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:26 Oukka wrote: Glad to hear that it is easier there now, even if for a moment. Hopefully you and others there can get some rest now. Yea, I hope so as well What bothers me is how those russian troops were used, it's just like a suicide mission, entering totally unfriendly and big city w/o knowledge of the ground w/o any support. As if they didn't had any specific objective. Just go and die hard? This is something barbaric. The ones who surrendered looks completely lost and they felt like they were betrayed by the commanders. I'm glad that more russian soldiers are starting to surrender, meaning less casualties My best hope at the moment is on the protestors of citizens of Russia and Belarus. And maybe someone in kremlin decided to take action and stop the madman by himself. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:24 farvacola wrote: I would guess Putin is amping up the nuclear threat before the coming talks in the hope that he can get Ukraine to concede the loss of Donbas as a condition for ceasefire. No idea how Ukraine will view that “offer.” I don't think so; if that was it then stopping at recognizing the breakaway region would be it. Donbas is a bargaining chip for the larger issue: Ukrainian military neutrality. If anything there might be an offer to reintegrate the Donbas in exchange for a meaningful commitment there. I also wouldn't be surprised if minor concessions like the Crimean water supply came into play in the end. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32755 Posts
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
The International Committee of the Red Cross says it is aware of requests by Ukraine’s UN ambassador and others to repatriate the bodies of Russian soldiers killed in action in Ukraine but has no numbers. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya tweeted Saturday that Ukraine has appealed to the ICRC “to facilitate repatriation of thousands of bodies of Russian soldiers” killed during its invasion of Ukraine. An accompanying chart claimed 3,500 Russian troops have been killed. Kyslytsya tweeted that parents in Russia should have a chance “to bury them with dignity.” “Don’t let Putin hide scale of tragedy,” he said. Laetitia Courtois, ICRC’s permanent observer to the United Nations says that the current security situation “is a primary concern and a limitation for our teams on the ground” and “we therefore cannot confirm numbers or other details.” She says “the ICRC can act as a neutral intermediary” on the return of bodies and other humanitarian issues in conflict, including clarifying the fate of missing persons, reuniting families, and advocating for the protection of detainees “within its possibilities.” Source | ||
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Excludos
Norway8279 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:06 Sermokala wrote: Russia hasn't been able to have a modern generation tank and fighter go into production yet and it's been suggested that they are not sending in the bleeding edge equipment they do have. Mark that with the widespread proliferation of modern NATO man portable missiles that were designed for the specific scenario and this specific line of tanks and aircraft. Russia is not following the doctrines of the soviet union or what the united States showed was so successful in Iraq. Not sure if you'd consider T-90 as bleeding edge, but it's definitively they're newer gear. They've been spotted in Ukraine now. I don't think Putin was ever holding back, they just don't have a lot of the gear they prance around with during parades to actually lose. 90% of the Russian military has been down prioritized and dilapidated | ||
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Excludos
Norway8279 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:05 Vivax wrote: Correct, I don't feel obliged to interfere in foreign affairs to the point I'd sacrifice the entire world population for it. I hope you're familiar with the phrase "sable rattling". The vest has largely stood by and not interfered in this war. The sanctions are a good long term pressure, but nothing that helps the Ukrainians right now. The fact that Putin is rattling his nukes while blaming the rest of the world has nothing to do with anyone but his own failure, and Ukraine's impressive stance | ||
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ggrrg
Bulgaria2716 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:36 Excludos wrote: Not sure if you'd consider T-90 as bleeding edge, but it's definitively they're newer gear. They've been spotted in Ukraine now. I don't think Putin was ever holding back, they just don't have a lot of the gear they prance around with during parades to actually lose. 90% of the Russian military has been down prioritized and dilapidated There may be T-90s there as well, but lots of the documented losses are T-72 and T-80. E.g.: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
You can hardly end this with "Oh hey, sorry, it was just a prank!". And even with the Russian army failings its objectives, it is hard to deny that they are holding the advantage here. And then you need something each side can also explain to their citizens as a success... So what would be the key points here? - Crimea: I doubt Russia would settle for anything less than a Ukrainian acceptance of the loss. In a way, I doubt the Ukrainian situation is yet dire enough to accept it. (Though I have no doubts this would be one of the first points for Ukraine to agree with if Russia makes progress or becomes even more destructive) - LNG/DNG: Again, Russia's narrative was to protect those regions, their independence, whatever shit. Regardless of the factual basis of those claims, it is near impossible to save face internally if they can't achieve something here? So maybe having those states be independent, not integrated into Russia, and confined by the former contact line instead of the district boundaries. I'm no expert on Ukrainian sentiments with regards to those territories, and I'm not sure how the Ukrainian side would feel about this. In addition, there may be some oddly worded interior politics concessions, where Ukraine somehow guarantees the Russians population right to whatever. This would be probably the kind of thing where 500 bureaucrats negotiate each word of a 200 page document for a week. - Ukraines security: Russias demand of Ukraine no longer aligning with the west and remaining independent (or Russia aligned...) is no longer justifiable. But what would a solution look like? NATO guarantees Ukraines independence, but Ukraine does neither join nor allow permanent NATO troops on its soil? Alternatively Ukraine joins the EU, but not the NATO. (The EU also has a mutual defense clause). Now obviously this would be the major geopolitic loss of Putin. - Sanctions: Well, thats suddenly the moment, where it is pointless of having Ukraine and Russia talk without the NATO in the room. It is unlikely that the West would lift all sanctions, but what would remain? - The future: I actually believe that this is the point most desperate to the Russians. If Germany pulls through with those 2 LNG terminals and the full rearmament, while dramatically decreasing European dependence on Russian imports, if they do not have the "open ear in Berlin" and if the Western companies just simply reduce their trade with Russia even further, regardless of sanctions, due to the shown risks... Then Russias future is one of either being a bigger North Korea, as a puppet of China... Or comparable to a pre-WW2-Japan, where the economic consequences of their crimes lets 'em get even more erratic and aggressive. (And in no way I suggest that those consequences are/were wrong) But then again, "Just a prank, lets forget this all" won't be the way forward, so what could be agreed here? So this would be kinda what I would expect as a mid point at the current situation. And I feel neither side would be willing to accept it. And thats where I'm afraid that if Russia starts to feel that their inital goals of some sort of puppet Ukraine become unachievable anyway, that they will start to become even more aggressive to increase the suffering to achieve more concessions. At the same time, this would, just looking at the hard facts (territory) compared to the Status Quo look like a Russian victory. And I'm not sure this would be in any way acceptable to the west. | ||
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KlaCkoN
Sweden1661 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:04 Sadist wrote: If Russia and Ukraine were to negotiate a ceasefire or a peace treaty how long do you think the sanctions remain in place? Id assume a portion of them remain no matter what but id think the heaviest sanctions would go away fairly quickly I mean I hope they would all go away pretty quickly. One of the main point of the sanctions as I see it is to make him stop attacking. If the attack stops and the sanctions dont go away there is no incentive for him to negotiate. The contentious point here I guess will be the status of the Crimea. In my opinion the Ukraine should (if given the option) be forced to give it up in return for peace and no sanctions. But we will see what happens, as of right now it seems more likely that Putin will turn all of Ukraine into Grozny rather than retreat  | ||
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Excludos
Norway8279 Posts
On February 27 2022 23:43 ggrrg wrote: There may be T-90s there as well, but lots of the documented losses are T-72 and T-80. E.g.: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html Yeah, I have not seen any of the T-90s in battle footage or destroyed yet. The only proof we have that they are around is that one got stuck in the mud in eastern Ukraine. They probably haven't been pushed to the front yet The amount of "captured" in that list is pretty staggering btw. Russia is truly giving Ukraine a ton of their gear here | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
The Russian military must know that Ukraine is being supplied along the Polish border, yet has made utterly no attempt to cross over the south west Belarus border to prevent shipments of equipment. Are the roads just simply unaccessible? But that's why tracked vehicles exists. It is as if, as many commentators had said, they truly expected to be able to take Kyiv in a couple of days. But instead of encircling Kyiv they seem to be poking Kyiv. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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