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On February 28 2022 00:45 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
The west has been very quick to allow dictators to leave and accept exile in another state. He has no sons but a daughter. If he is allowed to be exiled to China or Iran and she is allowed to inherit his wealth I would believe that would be accepted.
Perhaps but that would be to accept defeat and I'm not sure he is capable of doing that.
Edit: it seems like his legacy is too important to him. He didn't need to invade for personal gains, he's 70 and one of the richest man alive. I think he wants to go down in (Russian)history as the great man who restored the Russian empire or something similar. Not the coward who fled.
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On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
Your suggestion sounds reasonable but I don't think "reasonable" is good enough for Putin. Feels like the very least he needs to save face would be: recognition of Crimea as Russian; independence for LNR & DNR; Ukraine never joining NATO or EU...
Let's hope I am wrong.
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So this appears to go in hand to what the Generals looked like after Putin ordered them to raise the readiness level. Shocked, and flabbergasted.
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On February 28 2022 00:51 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:30 farvacola wrote:On February 28 2022 00:29 PhoenixVoid wrote:On February 28 2022 00:16 Jerubaal wrote:On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants. Oh please, Biden and his administration was calling out Russia's invasion for weeks and told the world to prepare and was mocked or doubted roundly for it. There's no way you can organize sanctions as massive as this without U.S heft and executive decisions. Obviously the bulk of the resistance falls on Ukraine and the world needs to send more aid, but believing that Biden has been doing nothing but crap his pants is ridiculous. For background, Jerubaal’s post was ripped almost word for word from numerous speeches being given at CPAC these past few days. The funny part is Tuckers actual news program was subtitled in Russian during the invasion to show Murica supported it, add that to Trumps glowing praise of genius Putin hours before the full invasion and fox news even cutting trump off mid interview because of him blaming "rigged" election has made it even harder for anyone not full partisan to think Trump would somehow be harder on Russia. The only republican looking some what good through this shockingly is Romney.
Rubio has been winning a lot of points with his twitter work with me. Presenting himself as what McCain would have.
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On February 28 2022 00:51 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:30 farvacola wrote:On February 28 2022 00:29 PhoenixVoid wrote:On February 28 2022 00:16 Jerubaal wrote:On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants. Oh please, Biden and his administration was calling out Russia's invasion for weeks and told the world to prepare and was mocked or doubted roundly for it. There's no way you can organize sanctions as massive as this without U.S heft and executive decisions. Obviously the bulk of the resistance falls on Ukraine and the world needs to send more aid, but believing that Biden has been doing nothing but crap his pants is ridiculous. For background, Jerubaal’s post was ripped almost word for word from numerous speeches being given at CPAC these past few days. The funny part is Tuckers actual news program was subtitled in Russian during the invasion to show Murica supported it, add that to Trumps glowing praise of genius Putin hours before the full invasion and fox news even cutting trump off mid interview because of him blaming "rigged" election has made it even harder for anyone not full partisan to think Trump would somehow be harder on Russia. The only republican looking some what good through this shockingly is Romney.
Wasn't this whole forum fully behind the whole Russia Collusion Hoax? Did anybody even make a mitigating statement about that even after it became a matter of official record that the whole investigation from top to bottom was based off of lies and known lies that were used to destroy innocent people's lives so they could win a political election? So, forgive me, Micronesia, if I question who it is that has trouble remembering their own statements.
JimmiC- You know, I used to have a lot of respect for your posts, but you have to stoop so low to twist things. The funny thing is, everything you said was technically correct, but nobody who actually watched it in good faith would have come to the conclusions you did. So either you heard this second hand or you are willfully misconstruing things.
And, if President Zelensky, who everyone loves right now, is telling Biden to stop running around screaming the Russians are coming, maybe that was a bad idea. The other heads of state have phones, right? Does he have to do it in public?
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On February 28 2022 01:01 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:51 JimmiC wrote:On February 28 2022 00:30 farvacola wrote:On February 28 2022 00:29 PhoenixVoid wrote:On February 28 2022 00:16 Jerubaal wrote:On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants. Oh please, Biden and his administration was calling out Russia's invasion for weeks and told the world to prepare and was mocked or doubted roundly for it. There's no way you can organize sanctions as massive as this without U.S heft and executive decisions. Obviously the bulk of the resistance falls on Ukraine and the world needs to send more aid, but believing that Biden has been doing nothing but crap his pants is ridiculous. For background, Jerubaal’s post was ripped almost word for word from numerous speeches being given at CPAC these past few days. The funny part is Tuckers actual news program was subtitled in Russian during the invasion to show Murica supported it, add that to Trumps glowing praise of genius Putin hours before the full invasion and fox news even cutting trump off mid interview because of him blaming "rigged" election has made it even harder for anyone not full partisan to think Trump would somehow be harder on Russia. The only republican looking some what good through this shockingly is Romney. Rubio has been winning a lot of points with his twitter work with me. Presenting himself as what McCain would have.
You realize McCain and Romney are the same old warhawk U.S. foreign policy that's been going on for the last...well forever, right?
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On February 28 2022 00:55 ggrrg wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
Your suggestion sounds reasonable but I don't think "reasonable" is good enough for Putin. Feels like the very least he needs to save face would be: recognition of Crimea as Russian; independence for LNR & DNR; Ukraine never joining NATO or EU... Let's hope I am wrong.
You're probably not but that would be terms that Ukraine could never accept. At those terms I feel they'd rather keep fighting and rightly so. They need more than the word of Putin to guarantee their safety long term, something only a Nato or possible EU membership could give.
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On February 28 2022 01:07 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:55 ggrrg wrote:On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
Your suggestion sounds reasonable but I don't think "reasonable" is good enough for Putin. Feels like the very least he needs to save face would be: recognition of Crimea as Russian; independence for LNR & DNR; Ukraine never joining NATO or EU... Let's hope I am wrong. You're probably not but that would be terms that Ukraine could never accept. At those terms I feel they'd rather keep fighting and rightly so. They need more than the word of Putin to guarantee their safety long term, something only a Nato or possible EU membership could give.
I agree with you.
That's why I am having trouble imagining what terms would be acceptable to both sides.
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On February 28 2022 01:03 Jerubaal wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 01:01 Sermokala wrote:On February 28 2022 00:51 JimmiC wrote:On February 28 2022 00:30 farvacola wrote:On February 28 2022 00:29 PhoenixVoid wrote:On February 28 2022 00:16 Jerubaal wrote:On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants. Oh please, Biden and his administration was calling out Russia's invasion for weeks and told the world to prepare and was mocked or doubted roundly for it. There's no way you can organize sanctions as massive as this without U.S heft and executive decisions. Obviously the bulk of the resistance falls on Ukraine and the world needs to send more aid, but believing that Biden has been doing nothing but crap his pants is ridiculous. For background, Jerubaal’s post was ripped almost word for word from numerous speeches being given at CPAC these past few days. The funny part is Tuckers actual news program was subtitled in Russian during the invasion to show Murica supported it, add that to Trumps glowing praise of genius Putin hours before the full invasion and fox news even cutting trump off mid interview because of him blaming "rigged" election has made it even harder for anyone not full partisan to think Trump would somehow be harder on Russia. The only republican looking some what good through this shockingly is Romney. Rubio has been winning a lot of points with his twitter work with me. Presenting himself as what McCain would have. You realize McCain and Romney are the same old warhawk U.S. foreign policy that's been going on for the last...well forever, right?
As a wise man once said: this is America
You take what you can.
Edit: EU membership isn't negotiable after this Ukraine needs to rebuild and outside of reperations the eu is the only path for that.
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Why are we all talking about peace and negotiations when Russia is still just simply winning?
Sure, today has not been a good day for them, but they still have a militarily superior position and plenty of reserves.
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A meaningful guarantee of Ukraine not joining NATO is going to be the big one that Russia would want. LNR/DNR could be ceded as an issue and they could punt on Crimea if they had to. I imagine that, given significant negotiation they could find a way to get security assurances for Ukraine that also preclude NATO membership.
That's probably not happening today, so what I'm hoping for is a ceasefire and no nuclear war.
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On February 28 2022 01:11 Fildun wrote:
Why are we all talking about peace and negotiations when Russia is still just simply winning?
Sure, today has not been a good day for them, but they still have a militarily superior position and plenty of reserves.
Their economy and their peoples patience for the war isn't inexhaustible. If they storm Kyiv and kill the president it will turn into a Syria rapidly.
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Talks are over, Zelenskiy said the talks were substantive.
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On February 28 2022 01:09 ggrrg wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 01:07 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2022 00:55 ggrrg wrote:On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
Your suggestion sounds reasonable but I don't think "reasonable" is good enough for Putin. Feels like the very least he needs to save face would be: recognition of Crimea as Russian; independence for LNR & DNR; Ukraine never joining NATO or EU... Let's hope I am wrong. You're probably not but that would be terms that Ukraine could never accept. At those terms I feel they'd rather keep fighting and rightly so. They need more than the word of Putin to guarantee their safety long term, something only a Nato or possible EU membership could give. I agree with you. That's why I am having trouble imagining what terms would be acceptable to both sides.
I think we'll have to wait with talking about "acceptable terms" until one side starts losing clearly, like what happened in the recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Ok not recent, it was actually in 2020. Time flies so fast nowadays.
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What was his objective anyway? Seems like he got a lot just by annexing those two eastern provinces.
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On February 28 2022 01:14 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 01:11 Fildun wrote:
Why are we all talking about peace and negotiations when Russia is still just simply winning?
Sure, today has not been a good day for them, but they still have a militarily superior position and plenty of reserves. Their economy and their peoples patience for the war isn't inexhaustible. If they storm Kyiv and kill the president it will turn into a Syria rapidly.
Yes but if they properly focus on taking all non-urban territory east of the Dniepr they can do that in a couple days, would give them a stronger position for negotiations.
All the sanctions are already in place anyway, there's not too much reason to stop now.
Unless Putin thinks he's in actual serious danger of being coupd in the next couple days it really wouldn't make too much sense for him to agree to the terms Ukraine would want, and for Ukraine it doesn't make sense to concede too many points right now given public morale.
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On February 28 2022 01:12 LegalLord wrote:
A meaningful guarantee of Ukraine not joining NATO is going to be the big one that Russia would want. LNR/DNR could be ceded as an issue and they could punt on Crimea if they had to. I imagine that, given significant negotiation they could find a way to get security assurances for Ukraine that also preclude NATO membership.
That's probably not happening today, so what I'm hoping for is a ceasefire and no nuclear war.
A ceasefire is much easier to achieve, when there is an actual front line to begin with. Which actually does not match the reality in Ukraine, where Ukraine only defends the cities, while everywhere else Russians roll through unopposed one hour and the next hour their entire supply convoy gets obliterated there because the Ukrainians just played hide and seek.
And as neither Russia would agree to retreat back to the status quo (is there any territory in Ukraine they really 100% control?), Ukraine won't agree to not blow up absolutely every Russian supply convoy running through their country.
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On February 28 2022 01:18 Fildun wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 01:14 Sermokala wrote:On February 28 2022 01:11 Fildun wrote:
Why are we all talking about peace and negotiations when Russia is still just simply winning?
Sure, today has not been a good day for them, but they still have a militarily superior position and plenty of reserves. Their economy and their peoples patience for the war isn't inexhaustible. If they storm Kyiv and kill the president it will turn into a Syria rapidly. Yes but if they properly focus on taking all non-urban territory east of the Dniepr they can do that in a couple days, would give them a stronger position for negotiations. All the sanctions are already in place anyway, there's not too much reason to stop now. Unless Putin thinks he's in actual serious danger of being coupd in the next couple days it really wouldn't make too much sense for him to agree to the terms Ukraine would want, and for Ukraine it doesn't make sense to concede too many points right now given public morale.
Except for the point where if he ever wants to get rid of those sanctions, that wouldn't be the smartest plan...
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On February 28 2022 01:21 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 01:12 LegalLord wrote:
A meaningful guarantee of Ukraine not joining NATO is going to be the big one that Russia would want. LNR/DNR could be ceded as an issue and they could punt on Crimea if they had to. I imagine that, given significant negotiation they could find a way to get security assurances for Ukraine that also preclude NATO membership.
That's probably not happening today, so what I'm hoping for is a ceasefire and no nuclear war. A ceasefire is much easier to achieve, when there is an actual front line to begin with. Which actually does not match the reality in Ukraine, where Ukraine only defends the cities, while everywhere else Russians roll through unopposed one hour and the next hour their entire supply convoy gets obliterated there because the Ukrainians just played hide and seek. And as neither Russia would agree to retreat back to the status quo (is there any territory in Ukraine they really 100% control?), Ukraine won't agree to not blow up absolutely every Russian supply convoy running through their country.
There's several battle lines and a ceasefire could be achieved by a logistically negotiated way of establishing "everyone stay at an uncontested position and nobody fire or make any advance movements." It could be done; it was already allegedly done a couple days ago in Kiev in particular in the pursuit of a talk like this one.
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EPT
