European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1351

On February 28 2022 01:53 LegalLord wrote:

Not annexed; declared independent. Client states but not part of Russia. Before they were merely unrecognized breakaway regions with unofficial support. Used for the purpose of ensuring that in the short term, Ukraine has a "contested territory" issue that prevents joining NATO.

The objective is a little hard to piece together because the response is vastly disproportionate to what could be done to solve it, but basically for various reasons that would take a while to run through, Putin (and probably any other Russian president really) sees Ukraine being a member of NATO as an existential threat. The Minsk agreements negotiated back around 2015 were meant as a long-term fix but never actually got implemented, creating a frozen conflict situation. Something about the current turn of events really bothered Putin to the point that a military operation was the approach he took. I don't really know what; maybe if we're still alive we'll learn in the declassification of today + 20 years of the relevant info. I will say that it was clear that negotiations were absolutely reaching a dead end and it very much seemed like Russia's concerns were not being taken seriously by the other parties. Or they completely misread to what extent it was actually a problem.

Some of the individuals I talked to who are a fair bit more Soviet than I were really, really disturbed by Zelensky's suggestion that Ukraine should pursue nuclear weapons. Not like anyone else would let them do so, but if that threat were real then might that be a reason to be disturbed? And NATO membership could, in the long run, confer the ability to deploy nuclear weapons there.

Again, it doesn't all add up because there was a solution that didn't involve actual war here and the result of the open military conflict in Europe is necessarily going to be that every European country is going to be deeply shaken to the core and respond accordingly. The "Ukraine being part of NATO" issue is absolutely the driving factor behind everything that happened.

On February 28 2022 01:38 Vivax wrote:


The SWIFT freeze is, aside from plain robbery, a declaration that trade between Russia and NATO countries is dead and buried for probably forever. Considering the consequences on the energy trade, that's likely to cause that energy control measures go in place. Rolling blackouts and the like.

According to Putin himself his main goal is to capture the elements of the Ukr. military who kept attacking the separatist regions and punish them.
I don't think he is ever going to accept the possibility of nukes right at the RU border. Same as the US not wanting rockets in Cuba back then. Do you believe that's an unreasonable demand?

On February 28 2022 02:09 ggrrg wrote:


You really think a couple of hours travel time make any difference at all? How much of the population of NYC or Moscow can you evacuate in a few hours? And even if you evacuated the entire population, the cities will still be reduced to rubble. Nevermind that in a MAD scenario the entire earth gets turned into a barren wasteland anyway. Proximity and strike times only make a difference in a theoretical scenario when you are able to disable the enemy's second strike ability. With Russia officially having over 5000 nuclear warheads spread through the vast nothingness of the country and the depths of the earth's oceans, disabling Russia's second strike ability is outside the realm of possiblity.

LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Two Russian billionaires, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska, called for an end to the conflict triggered by President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine, with Fridman calling it a tragedy for both countries' people.

Billionaire Fridman, who was born in western Ukraine, told staff in a letter that the conflict was driving a wedge between the two eastern Slav peoples of Russia and Ukraine who have been brothers for centuries.

"I was born in Western Ukraine and lived there until I was 17. My parents are Ukrainian citizens and live in Lviv, my favourite city," Fridman wrote in the letter, excerpts of which Reuters saw.

"But I have also spent much of my life as a citizen of Russia, building and growing businesses. I am deeply attached to the Ukrainian and Russian peoples and see the current conflict as a tragedy for them both."

Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, used a post on Telegram to called for peace talks to begin "as fast as possible".

"Peace is very important," said Deripaska, who is the founder of Russian aluminium giant Rusal (RUAL.MM), in which he still owns a stake via his shares in its parent company En+ Group.

On Feb. 21, Deripaska said there would not be a war.

Washington imposed sanctions on Deripaska and other influential Russians because of their ties to Putin after alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election, which Moscow denies.

Russia's so-called oligarchs, who once exercised significant influence over President Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, are facing economic chaos after the West imposed severe sanctions on Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Putin, after consulting his security council of senior officials, said he ordered the special military operation to protect people, including Russian citizens, from "genocide" - an accusation the West calls baseless propaganda.

The Ukrainian president's office said negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow would be held at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

"This crisis will cost lives and damage two nations who have been brothers for hundreds of years," Fridman said.

"While a solution seems frighteningly far off, I can only join those whose fervent desire is for the bloodshed to end. I’m sure my partners share my view."

One of Fridman's long-term partners, Pyotr Aven, attended a meeting at the Kremlin with Putin and 36 other major Russian businessmen last week, the Kremlin said.

Another Moscow billionaire told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the war was going to be a catastrophe.

"It is going to be catastrophic in all senses: for the economy, for relations with the rest of the world, for the political situation," the billionaire said.

The billionaires who gathered for a meeting with Putin in the Kremlin on Thursday were silent, he said.

"Businessmen understand very well the consequences. But who is asking the opinion of business about this?"

On February 28 2022 02:14 Gorsameth wrote:
Its not about evacuation. Its about time to identify a launch, confirm it from different sources and decide on a reaction.

You want to know if its a coordinated attack or a rogue launch of some kind before there is a white flash outside the window.

On February 28 2022 02:46 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
The Bank of Tinkoff is offering 171 Rubles for every dollar.

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108

Futures will be updated in little over 5 hours. I think.

Confidential documents have revealed how the telecoms giant Ericsson is alleged to have helped pay bribes to the Islamic State terrorist group in order to continue selling its services after the militants seized control of large parts of Iraq.

The leak of internal investigations at Ericsson, which also found that the firm had put its contractors at risk and allowed them to be kidnapped by the militants, is potentially damaging for the multinational.

In addition to the findings about the alleged payments to IS, the investigations uncovered allegations the company was involved in corruption in at least 10 countries across four continents.

That would suggest a pattern of wrongdoing by Ericsson that is far wider than what the telecoms giant publicly admitted to in 2019, when it entered into a $1bn (£750m) settlement with the US Department of Justice (DoJ).

Ericsson, which is headquartered in Stockholm, employs 100,000 people and sells telecoms equipment in 180 countries. It plays a leading role in developing the next generation of 5G mobile phone technology in the UK.

Two weeks ago, Ericsson’s stock price plunged by 14% when, alerted to the fact media organisations had been leaked the internal reports, it released a public statement admitting to “serious breaches of compliance rules” in Iraq between 2011 and 2019.